ABPW10 PGTW 011430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/011430Z-020600ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.2S 
170.0E, APPROXIMATELY 607 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, GUADALCANAL. 
ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING 
OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION EXHIBITING RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY EXCEPTIONAL 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND VERY 
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE 
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT, CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL 
SERVE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 020200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/020200Z-020600ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.2S 170.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 520NM EAST 
OF HONIARA GUADALCANAL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED BY PATCHES OF 
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOT) VWS, STRONG 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH OUTFLOW TOWARDS THE WEST AND POLEWARD, VERY WARM 
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO 
CONSOLIDATE. THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE CURRENTLY 
BROAD LLCC WILL LIKELY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 
WITH DEVELOPMENT MORE LIKELY AFTER 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2A.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W

ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 020803 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 08.5S 166.3E AT

020600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD03F SLOW MOVING.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEMS LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR WITH

GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM WELL AND MOVE IS SOUTHWEST

WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN

THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

*********************************************************************

***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE

AREA.

SSD分析 T1.5/1.5

TXPS29 KNES 021232 TCSWSP 

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92P) 

B. 02/1200Z 

C. 8.6S 

D. 163.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9 

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR 

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING SUGGESTS A DT=2.5. MET=1.5. PT=1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET SINCE THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC RELATIVE TO,& AND THE PULSING NATURE OF THE BANDING CONVECTION IS NOT CLEAR-CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS NIL ...

LEE

云图

GFS18Z进一步调强，预计在东澳南部达到巅峰，环流庞大，先西行后北上，巅峰约928hpa。

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 022305 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 08.0S 163.0E AT
020600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD03F SLOW MOVING.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEMS LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR WITH
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 to 30 DEGREES.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM WELL AND THE MOVEMENT IS
SOUTHWEST WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. TD03F IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF OUR REGION BY TOMORROW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA. 

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 030058 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 08.0S 163.0E AT
021800UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD03F SLOW MOVING.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEMS LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR WITH
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 to 30 DEGREES.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM WELL AND THE MOVEMENT IS
SOUTHWEST WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. TD03F IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF OUR REGION BY TOMORROW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
***************
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA. 

GFS18z上望928mb