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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0734 UTC 10/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 16.9S Longitude: 153.7E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: southwest (219 deg) Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h) Central Pressure: 982 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/ Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 10/1200: 17.2S 152.8E: 045 (080): 050 (095): 986 +12: 10/1800: 17.6S 152.0E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 986 +18: 11/0000: 17.8S 151.2E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 986 +24: 11/0600: 17.8S 150.4E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 985 +36: 11/1800: 17.4S 149.2E: 060 (105): 050 (095): 985 +48: 12/0600: 17.1S 148.1E: 075 (140): 060 (110): 978 +60: 12/1800: 16.6S 146.8E: 090 (165): 065 (120): 975 +72: 13/0600: 16.7S 145.5E: 115 (215): 065 (120): 974 +96: 14/0600: 17.2S 142.8E: 160 (300): 030 (055): 997 +120: 15/0600: 16.4S 140.4E: 190 (350): 030 (055): 997 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U), a category 2 cyclone is maintaining intensity as it slowly moves towards the far north Queensland coast. Deep convection is persisting in the southern quadrants. Position was based on animated Vis and microwave data. Intensity: 55kn based on Dvorak analysis, yielding a FT=4.0 and CI=4.0. CIMSS ADT =3.3 and NESDIS ADT=3.5. Current objective aids: SATCON 50 kn, ADT 51 kn, AiDT 42 kn, DMINT 56kn (1754UTC), DPRINT 49 kn (all 1-minute wind speeds). Jasper has weakened in the last 24 hours due moderate NW wind shear, which has dropped to about 18kn. The systems seems to be slightly better organised with deep convection starting to wrap further than it was 12-24 hours ago. The SSTs remain warm at approximately 28C with strong upper divergence and a strong outflow channel to the south. Jasper is moving to the west southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south towards the north Queensland coast over the coming days. There is greater consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and Cardwell, most likely on Wednesday. Jasper is likely to maintain an intensity of category 2, possibly intensifying to a category 3 before landfall. In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is possible next weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/1330 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 pm December 10 2 16.9S 153.7E 55 +6hr 10 pm December 10 2 17.2S 152.8E 80 +12hr 4 am December 11 2 17.6S 152.0E 100 +18hr 10 am December 11 2 17.8S 151.2E 110 +24hr 4 pm December 11 2 17.8S 150.4E 110 +36hr 4 am December 12 2 17.4S 149.2E 105 +48hr 4 pm December 12 2 17.1S 148.1E 140 +60hr 4 am December 13 3 16.6S 146.8E 165 +72hr 4 pm December 13 3 16.7S 145.5E 215 最后于 2023-12-10 15:40:02 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS31 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 154.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 154.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.7S 152.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.8S 150.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.4S 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 16.0S 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.8S 145.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.6S 143.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.0S 141.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 153.6E. 10DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 474 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.1S 154.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 474 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) EXPERIENCING THE EFFECT OF SIGNIFICANT NORTHWESTERLY SHEARING, SHOWING A POLEWARD TILTING VERTICAL STRUCTURE. COMPARISON OF A 100254Z ATMS 165GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 100252Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE YIELDS 63NM HORIZONTALLY BETWEEN THE CENTER OF ROTATION IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS. DEEP FLARING CONVECTION PERSISTS BUT IS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS (LIHOU REEF LIGHTHOUSE) 156NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REPORTED 43KTS SUSTAINED AT 100800Z. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NORTHEAST OF SYDNEY. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS ABRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 100600Z CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 100600Z CIMSS DPRINT: 51 KTS AT 100600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: WITH TC 03P (JASPER) CONTINUING TO BE IMPACTED BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THROUGH TAU 18, A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DROP IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THEREAFTER, HOWEVER, VWS DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY TO 5-10 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEGINNING NEAR TAU 24, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (27-28 C) WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY IMPROVE, INCREASING TO NEAR 70 PERCENT BY TAU 72. A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR AS THE VORTEX TRANSITS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA TO DISSIPATION (TAU 120). MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF TRACK SPEED AND GENERAL TRACK PATTERN OF TC 03P. ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS, AS WELL AS HAFS-A AND HWRF, SHOW GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 24 AND THEN EXHIBIT A GRADUAL TURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DURING THE TAU 00 TO TAU 24 INTERVAL, ALL BUT ONE MEMBER OF THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS SLIGHTLY DOWNTRENDS INTENSITY OF THE TC. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 60, AND ON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL REINTENSIFICATION OF 5-10KTS. CONTINUING ON A WESTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 60, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RAPID DECLINE IN INTENSITY BEGINNING NEAR TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LANDFALL (TAU 78 TO TAU 84). THE MOST PERTINENT UNCERTAINTY IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRESENTED IN THE 72 HOUR CROSS-TRACK SPREAD, MEASURING 143NM BETWEEN THE GALWEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-10 17:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”向西偏南方向移动
时 间：10日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬16.9度、东经153.7度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：982百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州麦凯东北方向约670公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”由14级减弱到10级
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月10日14时00分）
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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1341 UTC 10/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 17.3S Longitude: 152.5E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (251 deg) Speed of Movement: 12 knots (23 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 982 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm (55 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W1.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 10/1800: 17.6S 151.6E: 045 (080): 050 (095): 988 +12: 11/0000: 17.8S 150.7E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 991 +18: 11/0600: 17.8S 149.9E: 055 (105): 045 (085): 990 +24: 11/1200: 17.5S 149.2E: 060 (105): 045 (085): 991 +36: 12/0000: 16.9S 148.2E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 987 +48: 12/1200: 16.5S 147.2E: 080 (150): 060 (110): 980 +60: 13/0000: 16.5S 145.8E: 095 (180): 065 (120): 977 +72: 13/1200: 16.7S 144.3E: 120 (225): 040 (075): 994 +96: 14/1200: 16.3S 141.6E: 160 (295): 025 (045): 1001 +120: 15/1200: 15.2S 139.2E: 185 (340): 035 (065): 996 REMARKS: Deep convection is reduced to the western quadrants of Jasper as it tracks towards the far north Queensland coast. Good certainty in the position, based on animated EIR and surface observational data. Dvorak analysis, curved band ranging 0.4-0.5 and DT=2.5. MET 3.5 from a weakening 24 hour trend, PAT adjusted to 3. FT based on PAT 3.0 and CI=3.5. CIMSS/NESDIS ADT around 3.3. Current objective aids: SATCON 48 kn, ADT 49 kn, AiDT 38 kn, DMINT NA, DPRINT 36 kn (all 1-minute wind speeds). Surface observations: 22 kn at 12UTC from Lihou Reef Lighthouse (close to the centre of the system), 43 kn at 12UTC from Marion Reef (around 100 nm to south). Intensity set to 50 kn. Jasper has weakened in the last 24 hours due moderate NW wind shear, which around 20kn. The deep convection is reduced to the western quadrants of the system. The SSTs remain warm at approximately 28C with strong upper divergence and a strong outflow channel to the south. Jasper is moving to the west southwest towards the north Queensland coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. There is greater consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and Cardwell, most likely around or just north of Cairns on Wednesday. Jasper is likely to slightly weaken during Monday due to the impact of the shear and dry air. As Jasper approaches the coast during Tuesday and Wednesday conditions become more favourable and Jasper is forecast to re-intensify to a category 3 system just before landfall. However, some of the recent guidance indicates that the system could weaken more during Monday and early Tuesday, and may struggle to reach category 3 intensity before crossing the Queensland coast. In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is possible next weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/1930 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm December 10 2 17.3S 152.5E 35 +6hr 4 am December 11 2 17.6S 151.6E 80 +12hr 10 am December 11 1 17.8S 150.7E 95 +18hr 4 pm December 11 1 17.8S 149.9E 105 +24hr 10 pm December 11 1 17.5S 149.2E 105 +36hr 10 am December 12 2 16.9S 148.2E 120 +48hr 10 pm December 12 2 16.5S 147.2E 150 +60hr 10 am December 13 3 16.5S 145.8E 180 +72hr 10 pm December 13 1 16.7S 144.3E 225 最后于 2023-12-10 21:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS31 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 17.5S 152.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 152.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.0S 151.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.8S 149.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.4S 148.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.2S 147.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 17.2S 144.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.8S 142.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 152.5E. 10DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 409 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101200Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 101500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.5S 152.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 409 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) ACCELERATING ALONG TRACK LEAVING BEHIND NECESSARY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED DEEP CONVECTION HAVING COME TO A RAPID HALT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW APPEARS TO HAVE CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION REPORTS (101200Z) FROM MARION REEF, 113NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), REPORTED 43KT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES, AND LIHOU REEF LIGHTHOUSE, 74NM WEST OF THE LLCC, REPORTED 22KTS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES. A 100717Z SMOS PASSIVE MICROWAVE RADIOMETER DERIVED WIND SPEED IMAGE REVEALED AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SMOS IMAGE AND ANIMATED HIMAWARI-9 EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMOS DATA AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS ABRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 101300Z CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 101300Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: HOVERING NEAR THE SAME INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BATTLING MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR (RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEAR 55 PERCENT), TC 03P IS FORECAST TO APPROACH A SOUTHERN APEX NEAR 18 DEGREES SOUTH AND GRADUALLY TURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AFTERWARDS, FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 72, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND A REMOISTENING OF THE MID-LAYER ARE LIKELY TO PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED REINTENSIFICATION PHASE PRIOR TO A LANDFALL EVENT (NEAR TAU 66). ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS, THE TC VORTEX IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK WESTWARD AND COME TO DISSIPATION OVER LAND PRIOR TO TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 03P WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 12, AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THE TC WILL MAINTAIN OR JUST SLIGHTLY (5 KTS) DROP IN INTENSITY OVER THIS INTERVAL. FROM TAU 24 TO LANDFALL (NEAR TAU 66), INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL OCCUR, APPROACHING 60-65 KTS. A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 93NM AT LANDFALL CONVEYS SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS. FROM TAU 66 TO TAU 96 INTENSITY GUIDANCE OFFERS A RAPID WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD OVER LAND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-11 04:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：