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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1909 UTC 10/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 17.4S Longitude: 151.4E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: west (265 deg) Speed of Movement: 11 knots (20 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 985 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm (75 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS SST:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 11/0000: 17.6S 150.4E: 040 (070): 045 (085): 989 +12: 11/0600: 17.5S 149.6E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 988 +18: 11/1200: 17.3S 149.1E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 988 +24: 11/1800: 17.0S 148.7E: 055 (105): 045 (085): 988 +36: 12/0600: 16.6S 147.7E: 070 (125): 050 (095): 985 +48: 12/1800: 16.4S 146.4E: 080 (150): 060 (110): 978 +60: 13/0600: 16.5S 144.8E: 110 (200): 050 (095): 986 +72: 13/1800: 16.6S 143.5E: 130 (240): 030 (055): 997 +96: 14/1800: 16.1S 141.0E: 165 (305): 025 (045): 999 +120: 15/1800: 15.1S 138.7E: 180 (335): 035 (065): 994 REMARKS: Deep convection is no longer occurring around TC Jasper as it tracks towards the far north Queensland coast. Good certainty in the position, based on animated EIR and surface observational data. Dvorak analysis, unable to assign DT due to lack of deep convection. MET 3.0 from a strong weakening 24 hour trend, PAT adjusted to 2.5. FT 2.5 with CI held at 3.0 during weakening. CIMSS/NESDIS ADT around 2.7. Current objective aids: SATCON 46 kn, ADT 39 kn, AiDT 42 kn, DMINT 41 kn (from 1523 UTC), DPRINT 35 kn (all 1-minute wind speeds). Surface observations at 18 UTC: Northerly 44 kn at Lihou Reef Lighthouse (to the east northeast of the centre near the radius of maximum winds), easterly 36 kn at Marion Reef (around 100 nm to south southeast), southwesterly 31 kn at Willis Island (around 110 nm to the northwest). Intensity set to 45 kn. Jasper has weakened into a category 1 system with moderate NW wind shear, which around 20kn. The SSTs remain warm at approximately 27-28C with strong upper divergence and a strong outflow channel to the south. Jasper is moving to the west southwest towards the north Queensland coast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. There is greater consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and Cardwell, most likely around or just north of Cairns on Wednesday. Jasper may weaken slightly further during Monday due to the impact of the shear and dry air. As Jasper approaches the coast during Tuesday and Wednesday conditions become more favourable and Jasper is forecast to re-intensify, making landfall as a category 2 system. However, if the system is slower than forecast and crosses overnight Wednesday or Thursday, a slim chance remains of a severe category 3 crossing. In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is possible next weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/0130 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am December 11 1 17.4S 151.4E 45 +6hr 10 am December 11 1 17.6S 150.4E 70 +12hr 4 pm December 11 1 17.5S 149.6E 90 +18hr 10 pm December 11 1 17.3S 149.1E 100 +24hr 4 am December 12 1 17.0S 148.7E 105 +36hr 4 pm December 12 2 16.6S 147.7E 125 +48hr 4 am December 13 2 16.4S 146.4E 150 +60hr 4 pm December 13 2 16.5S 144.8E 200 +72hr 4 am December 14 tropical low 16.6S 143.5E 240 -
WTPS31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 151.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 151.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.9S 149.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.6S 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.1S 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 16.8S 146.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.8S 143.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.4S 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 151.1E. 10DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.5S 151.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 329 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AFTER HAVING BEEN TOPPED BY AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS ENTRENCHED ABOVE 400MB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AN PROXY VISIBLE (PROXYVIS) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NAKED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT THE DRY AIR HAS COMPLETELY ENGULFED THE CIRCULATION. A 101748Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT HOWEVER, WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED PROXYVIS, THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LIHOU LIGHTHOUSE WHICH SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSED VERY CLOSE TO OR DIRECTLY OVER THE STATION AROUND 1500Z, WITH THE WINDS VEERING SHARPLY FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE DVORAK-BASED TECHNIQUES WHICH ARE TOO LOW AFTER THE COLLAPSE OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A SENTINEL-1A SAR PASS FROM 100831Z SHOWED WINDS UP TO 63 KNOTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE THE CONVECTION IS GONE, THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS ONLY SLOWLY WINDING DOWN. PRESSURE READINGS FROM LIHOU LIGHTHOUSE AS THE CENTER PASSED WERE AS LOW AS 983MB, WHICH PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR A 50-55 KNOT INTENSITY BASED ON THE KNAFF-ZEHR WIND PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP. THE SYSTEM HAD PICKED UP SOME SPEED OVERNIGHT, BUT HAS NOW BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN, AND SHIFTED TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST HEADING. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST, FOR WHILE SHEAR HAS DROPPED OFF TO LOW LEVELS (10-15 KNOTS) AND OUTFLOW REMAINS MODERATE TO THE SOUTH, THE DRY AIR IS OVERWHELMING ALL THE OTHER FACTORS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 101541Z CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 101730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: EXTREMELY DRY AIR ENGULFING THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER SPEEDING UP AND TAKING A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVERNIGHT, TC 03P APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN A BIT, AND SHIFTING TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN, THE DEPTH OF THE STEERING LEVEL HAS SHIFTED DOWNWARDS, WITH THE TOP OF THE STEERING COLUMN NOW ASSESSED TO BE AROUND 500MB. AT 500MB, THE STEERING RIDGE IS ORIENTED ON A MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS, WHICH EXPLAINS THE RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK MOTION. LOOKING FORWARD, THE RIDGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TO A POSITION NORTH OF BRISBANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 03P TO TRACE A SHALLOW WAVE-LIKE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. LANDFALL IS NOW EXPECTED AROUND TAU 48, VERY NEAR CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CAP ANY CONVECTION WHICH MANAGES TO COOK OFF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THUS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE WIND FIELD SPINS DOWN. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL MOISTEN UP AFTER TAU 24, WHILE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PERSISTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REINTENSIFY TO 50-55 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 03P WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE HAFS-A AND HWRF TRACKERS WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK, WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF FLINDERS REEF AND MAKING LANDFALL WELL SOUTH OF CAIRNS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY GROUPED AROUND THE CONSENSUS MEAN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 24, HEDGED CLOSER TO THE HAFS-A AND HWRF SOLUTIONS, AS THESE TWO MODELS SUCCESSFULLY PREDICTED THE EARLIER JOG TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 24, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN INTENSIFICATION SOLUTIONS, PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 24. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES NO REINTENSIFICATION, WHILE THE COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM AND GFS) ARE THE ONLY MODELS SUGGESTING A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACKS THE MEAN THROUGH TAU 24, THEN SHIFTS ABOUT HIGHER THAN THE MEAN, UP TO 10 KNOTS HIGHER AT TAU 48, BUT IN LINE WITH THE COAMPS-TC GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING TIMING OF WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A RESURGENCE IN CONVECTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-11 04:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 025// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 150.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 150.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.8S 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.2S 147.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 16.9S 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 16.9S 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.9S 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 149.8E. 11DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 025// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 150.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 263 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HAVING BEEN SMOTHERED BY A WEDGE OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR ENSCONCED ABOVE THE 500MB LEVEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK-BASED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON THE HIGHER CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS SOUTHERN-MOST POINT AROUND THE 0000Z HOUR, AND SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM NOW TRACKING WEST OR EVEN A BIT NORTH OF DUE WEST, TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE, WITH THE DRY AIR AND A LACK OF STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSETTING THE LOW WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 110000Z CIMSS ADT: 29 KTS AT 102330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND REPOSITION TO A POINT NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE. AS THIS OCCURS, TC 03P WILL SHIFT EQUATORWARD ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF CAIRNS IS ANTICIPATED AROUND TAU 36, AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN ANOTHER FIVE KNOTS OR SO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SMOTHER ANY HOPES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A REMOISTENING OF THE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTANT INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO REACHING LAND. THE TIGHT WINDOW PRIOR TO LANDFALL, ASSUMING THE MOISTENING OCCURS, WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION THE SYSTEM CAN SUSTAIN. ONCE ASHORE, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA, BY TAU 72 OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CAPE YORK PENINSULA. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL MODEL SPREAD BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. HAFS-A AND HWRF CONTINUE TO TRACK THE SYSTEM ON A MORE SOUTHERN COURSE, WITH LANDFALL WELL SOUTH OF CAIRNS, AND GFS HAS NOW JOINED THAT PARTY. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE MOST RECENT IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT THIS POINT SO THOSE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKS SEEM UNLIKELY. THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GENERAL COURSE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT REMAINS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MEAN TRACK THROUGH LANDFALL. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SHARPLY AFTER LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY DISSIPATES, AND THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN. CONFIDENCE IS IMPROVING BUT REMAINS MEDIUM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE SHAPE OF THE INTENSITY CHANGE, THOUGH THE JTWC FORECAST IS ABOUT 5-7 KNOTS LOWER THAN THE COAMPS-TC PEAK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”向西偏北方向移动
时 间：11日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬17.7度、东经150.4度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：990百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州麦凯北偏东方向约400公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”由11级减弱到9级
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星可见光监测图像（北京时间2023年12月11日08时00分）
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WTPS31 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 149.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 149.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.0S 148.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 16.6S 147.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 16.4S 146.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.6S 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.7S 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 149.3E. 11DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 221 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.5S 149.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 221 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) EXHIBITING A FULLY EXPOSED MID-LEVEL WITH ONE SMALL ELEMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, OBSERVABLE IN A 110600Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. A CLOUD-FREE DRY SLOT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, OBSERVABLE IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, PROVIDES INDICATION THE TC CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING OFF OF THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 110600Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 110600Z SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF (42KTS), HOLMES REEF (37KTS), AND WILLIS ISLAND (33KTS). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 110430Z CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 110600Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 110600Z CIMSS DPRINT: 32 KTS AT 110600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEER HAVING DROPPED TO LOWER (5-10 KTS) VALUES AND FORECAST TO REMAIN SO, TC 03P (JASPER) HAS A BRIEF WINDOW (TAU 00 TO TAU 42) TO UNDERGO SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SHALLOW REEFS EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, THE ENVIRONMENT OFFERS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 CELSIUS AND A REMOISTENING OF THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE (70 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BY TAU 48). WITH LANDFALL FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 42, THE SYSTEM IS THEREAFTER FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE PRIOR TO TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THAT TC O3P (JASPER) WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 24, AND THEN A GRADUAL TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. A TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 42NM BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS IS PRESENT AT LANDFALL (NEAR TAU 42), BUT A LARGER ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 165NM BETWEEN NAVGEM AND GFS PRESENTS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT DIVIDED, PRESENTING A 20 KTS INTENSITY SPREAD (40 TO 60 KTS) AT TAU 36. GIVEN THE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY IS MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”向西北方向移动
时 间：11日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬17.5度、东经149.6度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：990百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州汤斯维尔东偏北方向约350公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”由11级减弱到9级
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月11日14时00分）
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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1318 UTC 11/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 17.0S Longitude: 148.9E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (303 deg) Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 992 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm (75 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 11/1800: 16.8S 148.5E: 030 (055): 045 (085): 991 +12: 12/0000: 16.7S 148.1E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 992 +18: 12/0600: 16.5S 147.6E: 050 (090): 050 (095): 989 +24: 12/1200: 16.3S 147.2E: 055 (100): 055 (100): 985 +36: 13/0000: 16.4S 146.1E: 065 (120): 060 (110): 982 +48: 13/1200: 16.6S 144.7E: 090 (170): 040 (075): 996 +60: 14/0000: 16.7S 143.7E: 105 (200): 030 (055): 1001 +72: 14/1200: 16.3S 142.7E: 125 (235): 025 (045): 1003 +96: 15/1200: 15.0S 140.3E: 150 (280): 030 (055): 1001 +120: 16/1200: 13.9S 138.2E: 180 (335): 040 (075): 995 REMARKS: Tropical cyclone Jasper has maintained a convective band on its northern flank over the past several hours, though removed from the LLCC under modest southerly shear. Position good based on animated IR imagery, radar, recent microwave passes at 08UTC and 09UTC, and local observations. Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.4 wrap yields DT 2.5, supported by adjusted MET. Shear pattern with 60NM displacement from LLCC yields DT of 2.0, while MET with steady 24-hour trend gives 3.0. FT and CI both 2.5 based on cloud features. Current objective aids: SATCON 44 kt, ADT 30 kt, AiDT 34 kt, DMINT 35 kt (from 0901 UTC), DPRINT 29 kt (all 1-minute wind speeds). Surface observations at 12 UTC: south-southeasterly 38 kt at Flinders Reef (around 50 NM to the south-southwest), west-southwesterly 43 kt at Holmes Reef (around 70 NM to the west-northwest) north northwesterly 41 kt at Willis Island (around 75 NM to the northeast). Current and previous observations suggest gales remain in at least three quadrants. Intensity held at 45 knots. Jasper is moving to the west-northwest towards the north tropical Queensland coast under the influence of a low-level and mid-level ridge to the south. There is good consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and Innisfail, most likely around or just north of Cairns, on Wednesday. CIMSS wind analysis suggests that Jasper is moving into a broad area of lower (10-15 knot) deep layer wind shear as it moves under the axis of an upper shortwave trough. SSTs remain warm at approximately 27-28C, and this moderately favourable environment continues along the forecast track until landfall on Queensland's North Tropical Coast on Wednesday. A mitigating factor will be upper outflow, which will be limited as the system moves to the west of the upper shortwave. Based on these environmental conditions and NWP, some intensification is therefore expected prior to landfall, most likely beginning Tuesday morning, and a category 2 landfall remains the expectation. If the system moves slower than forecast and crosses overnight Wednesday or Thursday, a very slim chance remains of a severe category 3 crossing. In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is possible next weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1930 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm December 11 1 17.0S 148.9E 30 +6hr 4 am December 12 1 16.8S 148.5E 55 +12hr 10 am December 12 1 16.7S 148.1E 75 +18hr 4 pm December 12 2 16.5S 147.6E 90 +24hr 10 pm December 12 2 16.3S 147.2E 100 +36hr 10 am December 13 2 16.4S 146.1E 120 +48hr 10 pm December 13 1 16.6S 144.7E 170 +60hr 10 am December 14 tropical low 16.7S 143.7E 200 +72hr 10 pm December 14 tropical low 16.3S 142.7E 235 最后于 2023-12-11 21:25:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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