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WTPS31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 027// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 16.7S 149.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 149.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.2S 148.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.9S 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.9S 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.1S 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.0S 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 148.8E. 11DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 027// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.7S 149.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 190 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) HAVING A MOSTLY EXPOSED MID-LEVEL WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A CLOUD-FREE DRY SLOT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, OBSERVABLE IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, PROVIDES INDICATION THE TC CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED WITH DRY AIR SOURCED FROM THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 111200Z HIMAWARI-9 EIR SATELLITE IMAGE AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 111200Z SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM FLINDERS REEF (SOUTHEASTERLY AT 38 KTS), HOLMES REEF (SOUTHWESTERLY AT 43 KTS), AND WILLIS ISLAND (NORTHERLY AT 41 KTS) AND A 110838Z RCM-1 SAR IMAGE SHOWING UP TO 53 KTS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 111230Z CIMSS ADT: 30 KTS AT 111130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) IS FORECAST TO HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW (TAU 00 TO TAU 36) TO UNDERGO SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SHALLOW REEFS EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, THE ENVIRONMENT OFFERS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 CELSIUS, A REMOISTENING OF THE MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE (70 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BY TAU 48), AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS. WITH LANDFALL FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 42, THE SYSTEM IS THEREAFTER ANTICIPATED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE PRIOR TO TAU 72. AS GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONVEYS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT AFTER THE VORTEX CROSSES THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA IT BECOMES REVITALIZED IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, POTENTIALLY RETURNING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THAT TC O3P (JASPER) WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 24, AND THEN TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 72. A TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 51NM BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS IS PRESENT AT LANDFALL (NEAR TAU 42), BUT A LARGER ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 138NM AT TAU 48 BETWEEN GALWEM AND ECMWF PRESENTS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT DIVIDED, PRESENTING A 15 KTS INTENSITY SPREAD AT TAU 36, WITH HAFS-A AT THE TOP END (55 KTS) AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT THE BOTTOM END (40 KTS). GIVEN THE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY IS MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-12 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1923 UTC 11/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 16.7S Longitude: 148.6E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: northwest (316 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 988 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm (75 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS SST:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 12/0000: 16.6S 148.2E: 035 (065): 050 (095): 985 +12: 12/0600: 16.4S 147.6E: 045 (080): 050 (095): 985 +18: 12/1200: 16.3S 147.1E: 050 (090): 055 (100): 981 +24: 12/1800: 16.3S 146.5E: 055 (105): 055 (100): 982 +36: 13/0600: 16.4S 145.0E: 075 (135): 055 (100): 982 +48: 13/1800: 16.6S 143.8E: 100 (185): 030 (055): 997 +60: 14/0600: 16.5S 142.6E: 120 (220): 030 (055): 997 +72: 14/1800: 16.1S 141.5E: 135 (250): 025 (045): 999 +96: 15/1800: 14.8S 139.0E: 170 (315): 030 (055): 997 +120: 16/1800: 13.5S 137.0E: 190 (355): 040 (075): 991 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper has developed convection with lightning to the north of the low level centre. Position is reasonable based on animated IR imagery, the edge of radar, and local observations. Dvorak analysis is based on MET and PAT giving a FT and CI of 3.0. Current objective aids: ADT 35 kts, AiDT 34 kt, DPRINT 34 kts, DMINT 35 kt (from 0901 UTC), SATCON 44 kt (all 1-minute wind speeds). Surface observations at 18 UTC: south-southeasterly 38 kt at Flinders Reef, west-southwesterly 30 kt at Holmes Reef, northerly 35 kt at Willis Island. Current and previous observations indicate gales remain in at least three quadrants. Intensity held at 45 knots. Jasper is moving to the west-northwest towards the north tropical Queensland coast under the influence of a low-level and mid-level ridge to the south. There is good consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and Innisfail, most likely around or just north of Cairns, on Wednesday. CIMSS wind analysis indicates 8 knots of southerly shear. Shear is expected to remain low as Jasper moves under the axis of an upper shortwave trough. SSTs remain warm at approximately 27-28C, and this moderately favourable environment continues along the forecast track until landfall on Queensland's North Tropical Coast on Wednesday. A mitigating factor will be upper outflow, which will be limited as the system moves to the west of the upper shortwave. Based on these environmental conditions and NWP, some intensification is therefore expected prior to landfall, most likely beginning Tuesday morning, and a category 2 landfall remains the expectation. If the system moves slower than forecast and crosses overnight Wednesday or Thursday, a chance remains of a severe category 3 crossing. In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is possible next weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0130 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am December 12 1 16.7S 148.6E 45 +6hr 10 am December 12 2 16.6S 148.2E 65 +12hr 4 pm December 12 2 16.4S 147.6E 80 +18hr 10 pm December 12 2 16.3S 147.1E 90 +24hr 4 am December 13 2 16.3S 146.5E 105 +36hr 4 pm December 13 2 16.4S 145.0E 135 +48hr 4 am December 14 tropical low 16.6S 143.8E 185 +60hr 4 pm December 14 tropical low 16.5S 142.6E 220 +72hr 4 am December 15 tropical low 16.1S 141.5E 250 -
WTPS31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 028// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 148.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 148.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 16.2S 147.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 16.0S 146.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.2S 144.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.3S 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.9S 141.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 148.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 120900Z AND 121500. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 028// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 148.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 150 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RESURGENCE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH VIGOROUS LIGHTING. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS SUSPECTED TO BE DISPLACED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER THE EIR IS INCONCLUSIVE. AN 111803Z GPM 37 GHZ OVERPASS REVEALS A BROAD BANDED STRUCTURE, WHICH REMAINS OPEN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE 1800Z OBSERVATION AT NEARBY HOLMES REEF INDICATES MSLP HAD FALLEN TO 994 MB, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE COMPOSITE OF ABOVE DATA, AS WELL AS THE RADAR ANIMATION FROM WILLIS ISLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE OBSERVED ENHANCED CONVECTION AND RISING DVORAK T3.0 ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF, HOWEVER BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE BELOW THIS VALUE, RANGING FROM 33 TO 48 KNOTS. JASPER IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TENDENCY IS IMPROVING, ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS STILL DISPLACING THE VORTEX. GFS ANALYSIS INDICATES THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TC 03P IS STILL SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR, HOWEVER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE CORE IS IMPROVING. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 111546Z CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 111730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P IS FORECAST TO TURN ONTO A WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE HAFS-A MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INITIAL ANALYSIS STRUCTURE. THE MODEL INDICATES JASPER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING HUMIDITY AND OUTFLOW ALLOWING ADDITIONAL REINTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AT AROUND 130400Z. THE FORECAST PEAK IS SET TO 60 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE LANDFALLING POSITION LIES IN BETWEEN TWO FORECAST TAUS. JASPER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER CAPE YORK AND SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO TAU 72, AS THE REMNANTS MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE DOES NOT REDEVELOP THE REMNANT CIRCULATION. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAD SOME TROUBLE FORECASTING THE PRIOR SOUTHERLY DIP, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WESTERLY TRACK OVER CAPE YORK. CROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48 IS LESS THAN 100 NM. HAFS-A REACHES 77 KNOTS AT LANDFALL, WHICH IS LIKELY OVER AGRESSIVE UNLESS OUTFLOW MARKEDLY IMPROVES. HWRF IS SLOWER TO CONSOLIDATE AND MAKES LANDFALL AT AROUND 55 KNOTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM // NNNN
最后于 2023-12-12 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0132 UTC 12/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 16.4S Longitude: 148.0E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (301 deg) Speed of Movement: 7 knots (12 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 988 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 12/0600: 16.1S 147.6E: 035 (065): 045 (085): 988 +12: 12/1200: 15.9S 147.1E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 988 +18: 12/1800: 15.9S 146.5E: 055 (100): 055 (100): 982 +24: 13/0000: 16.0S 145.7E: 060 (115): 060 (110): 979 +36: 13/1200: 16.2S 144.2E: 070 (130): 040 (075): 992 +48: 14/0000: 16.4S 143.0E: 100 (185): 030 (055): 997 +60: 14/1200: 16.1S 141.6E: 120 (225): 025 (045): 999 +72: 15/0000: 15.6S 140.6E: 135 (250): 030 (055): 997 +96: 16/0000: 14.1S 138.0E: 155 (285): 035 (065): 994 +120: 17/0000: 12.9S 135.8E: 190 (355): 030 (055): 997 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper continues to maintain limited deep convection. Position is reasonable based on animated IR imagery, the edge of radar, and local observations. Dvorak analysis is based on MET and PAT giving a FT and CI of 3.0. Current objective aids: ADT 41 kts, AiDT 33 kt, DPRINT 36 kts, DMINT 37 kt from 2012 UTC, SATCON 44 kt at 1830 UTC (all 1-minute wind speeds). ASCAT pass at 2350 UTC indicates winds to 45 knots and confirms the structure of the wind field. Surface observations at 00 UTC: Bougainville Reef 37 knots southwest, Holmes Reef 36 knots east southeasterly, Flinders Reef 33 knots easterly. Current and previous observations indicate gales remain in at least three quadrants. Intensity held at 45 knots. Jasper is moving to the west-northwest towards the north tropical Queensland coast under the influence of a low-level and mid-level ridge to the south. There is good consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and Cairns, most likely between Wujal Wujal and Port Douglas, on Wednesday. Because of the wind structure and speed of movement, gales are likely to be experienced on the coast around 6 hours before the centre crosses the coast. There is a large area of below gale force winds near the centre. CIMSS wind analysis indicates 8 knots of southerly shear at 18 UTC. Wind shear is forecast to stay in the low to moderate range through to landfall but limited outflow is expected to the south as the system is now moving to the west of an upper short wave trough. SSTs remain warm at approximately 27 degrees Celsius. Based on these environmental conditions and NWP, some intensification is possible prior to landfall, most likely overnight during the diurnally favourable period. In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is possible this weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0730 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 am December 12 1 16.4S 148.0E 45 +6hr 4 pm December 12 1 16.1S 147.6E 65 +12hr 10 pm December 12 1 15.9S 147.1E 90 +18hr 4 am December 13 2 15.9S 146.5E 100 +24hr 10 am December 13 2 16.0S 145.7E 115 +36hr 10 pm December 13 1 16.2S 144.2E 130 +48hr 10 am December 14 tropical low 16.4S 143.0E 185 +60hr 10 pm December 14 tropical low 16.1S 141.6E 225 +72hr 10 am December 15 tropical low 15.6S 140.6E 250 -
WTPS31 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 147.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 147.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 16.1S 146.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 16.2S 145.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.3S 144.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.5S 142.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 147.6E. 12DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.3S 147.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 126 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. A TIMELY 112350Z ASCAT-B PASS PROVIDES EXCELLENT COVERAGE OF THE COMPLETE CIRCULATION, WHICH COMBINED WITH WILLIS ISLAND RADAR AND HOLMES REEF OBSERVATION DATA, PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THIS VALUE IS SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW DVORAK FINAL-T OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), WHICH IS THE HIGHEST OF THE THREE REPORTING AGENCIES. ADDITIONALLY, OBJECTIVE FIXES REMAIN ALMOST STUBBORNLY LOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT HAD A LARGE SWATH OF 40 KNOTS, HOWEVER BIAS CORRECTION COULD REASONABLY REACH 50 TO 55 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WERE A PAIR OF COINCIDENT SAR PASSES MID-CYCLE. WHILE THE PEAK SAR WINDS ARE OVER-ESTIMATED, POSSIBLY DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC SIGNAL ATTENUATION, THE DATA STILL SUGGESTS THAT 50 TO 55 KNOTS IS WARRANTED. DEEP LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS RELAXED, WITH THE MOST RECENT CIMSS ESTIMATED SHEAR AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, AND SST REMAINS FAVORABLE. THE LIMITING FACTORS ARE PERSISTENT WEAK MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION AND MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: AVERAGE OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND SAR WIND DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 111830Z CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 112330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE MOST RECENT FRAMES OF MSI SUGGEST THAT THE TRACK OF TC 03P HAS BEGUN TO FLATTEN OUT AND MOVE MORE WESTERLY TOWARDS PORT DOUGLAS. CONSENSUS MODEL CROSS TRACK SPREAD ALONG THE COAST IS ABOUT 45 MILES, EXPANDING TO ABOUT 100 NM BY TAU 48. THE HAFS-A MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INITIAL ANALYSIS STRUCTURE. THE MODEL INDICATES JASPER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING HUMIDITY AND OUTFLOW ALLOWING ADDITIONAL REINTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AT AROUND 130200Z. THE FORECAST PEAK IS SET TO 60 KNOTS. JASPER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER CAPE YORK AND SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR BY TAU 48. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF ECMWF TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK INTO THE GULF, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION, WHILE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY AND DO NOT CALL FOR REDEVELOPMENT. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATES A HIGH (80 TO 90 PERCENT) LIKELIHOOD OF JASPER MAKING LANDFALL AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, WITH ONE TO TWO MEMBERS REFLECTING A WEAK TYPHOON EQUIVALENT. AMONG GFS, ECMWF, AND COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, ONLY THE ECENS IS INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF, AT 15-20 PERCENT PROBABILITY. THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE EXTENDED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”向西偏北方向移动
时 间：12日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬16.3度、东经147.9度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：975百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东偏北方向约240公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”由9级加强到11级
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向西偏北方向缓慢移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月12日08时00分）
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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0715 UTC 12/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 15.9S Longitude: 147.7E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: northwest (324 deg) Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 985 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/03HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 12/1200: 15.8S 147.1E: 035 (065): 050 (095): 984 +12: 12/1800: 15.8S 146.5E: 050 (090): 055 (100): 982 +18: 13/0000: 15.9S 145.8E: 060 (110): 060 (110): 979 +24: 13/0600: 16.0S 145.0E: 065 (125): 055 (100): 982 +36: 13/1800: 16.2S 143.6E: 080 (150): 030 (055): 997 +48: 14/0600: 16.3S 142.3E: 110 (205): 030 (055): 997 +60: 14/1800: 15.8S 141.1E: 120 (225): 025 (045): 999 +72: 15/0600: 15.3S 140.0E: 145 (270): 030 (055): 997 +96: 16/0600: 13.6S 137.3E: 170 (315): 035 (065): 995 +120: 17/0600: 12.7S 135.3E: 205 (375): 030 (055): 997 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper has developed during the last 6 hours. Position is reasonable based on animated VIS imagery, the edge of radar, and local observations. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern, with 0.6 wrap giving a DT of 3.0 which is consistent with MET and PAT giving a FT of 3.0. FT was 3.5 within the last 6 hours so CI is held at 3.5. Current objective aids: ADT 43 kts, AiDT 33 kt, DPRINT 50 kts, DMINT 38 kt (from 0419 UTC), SATCON 43 kt at 0600 UTC (all 1-minute wind speeds). Intensity set at 50 knots. Surface observations at 06 UTC: Bougainville Reef 36 knots southwest, Holmes Reef 42 knots easterly. Current and previous observations indicate gales remain in at least three quadrants. Jasper is moving to the northwest but is expected to resume a more westerly track overnight towards the north tropical Queensland coast under the influence of a low-level and mid-level ridge to the south. There is good consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and Cairns, most likely between Cooktown and Port Douglas, on Wednesday. Because of the wind structure and speed of movement, gales are likely to be experienced on the coast around 6 hours before the centre crosses the coast. There is a large area of below gale force winds near the centre. CIMSS wind analysis indicates 5 knots of south southeasterly shear at 00 UTC. Wind shear is forecast to stay in the low to moderate range through to landfall but limited outflow is expected to the south as the system is now moving to the west of an upper short wave trough. SSTs remain warm at approximately 27 degrees Celsius. Based on these environmental conditions and NWP, some further intensification is possible prior to landfall, most likely overnight during the diurnally favourable period. There remains a small chance of a Category 3 impact. In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is possible this weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1330 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 pm December 12 2 15.9S 147.7E 35 +6hr 10 pm December 12 2 15.8S 147.1E 65 +12hr 4 am December 13 2 15.8S 146.5E 90 +18hr 10 am December 13 2 15.9S 145.8E 110 +24hr 4 pm December 13 2 16.0S 145.0E 125 +36hr 4 am December 14 tropical low 16.2S 143.6E 150 +48hr 4 pm December 14 tropical low 16.3S 142.3E 205 +60hr 4 am December 15 tropical low 15.8S 141.1E 225 +72hr 4 pm December 15 tropical low 15.3S 140.0E 270 -
WTPS31 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 15.9S 147.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 147.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.9S 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.0S 145.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.1S 143.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.0S 142.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 146.9E. 12DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.9S 147.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 100 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MOSTLY MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVED WRAP AND BANDING OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. CONVECTIVE TOPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT HAVE WARMED AND OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED MINIMAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL LOW LEVEL FEATURE IN THE 120417Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN WRAP AND BANDING. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS AND WARM SST OFFSET BY MINIMAL OUTFLOW AND COOL DRY AIR INTRUSION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 120417Z CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 120530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC JASPER WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR TO THE SOUTH AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER CAPE YORK APPROXIMATELY 63NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS AROUND TAU 18. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AT BEST UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN IT TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ACROSS FURTHER INLAND. THE REMNANTS OF TC JASPER IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN PACK GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING TO A MERE 62NM BY TAU 48. NAVGEM IS THE SOLE LEFT OF TRACK OUTLIER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN