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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1320 UTC 12/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 15.7S Longitude: 147.4E Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km) Movement Towards: northwest (305 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 12/1800: 15.8S 146.9E: 025 (045): 050 (095): 987 +12: 13/0000: 16.0S 146.3E: 040 (070): 060 (110): 980 +18: 13/0600: 16.0S 145.6E: 050 (095): 050 (095): 987 +24: 13/1200: 16.1S 144.9E: 065 (115): 040 (075): 994 +36: 14/0000: 16.2S 143.5E: 085 (155): 030 (055): 999 +48: 14/1200: 15.9S 142.6E: 110 (200): 025 (045): 1001 +60: 15/0000: 15.6S 141.4E: 130 (240): 030 (055): 999 +72: 15/1200: 15.2S 140.2E: 130 (245): 030 (055): 999 +96: 16/1200: 14.0S 137.7E: 165 (300): 040 (075): 994 +120: 17/1200: 13.5S 135.3E: 190 (350): 030 (055): 999 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper has slowed over the last 6 hours and has begun moving in a more westerly direction. Jasper has slightly weakened, but conditions are favourable for re-intensification to a category 2 system as it approaches the coast. Position is reasonable as it is captured on the edge of Cairns radar, local observations are available and the LLCC is unobscured by cloud on satellite imagery. Tropical Cyclone Jasper has been gradually losing deep convection over the last 24 hours. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern, with 0.5 wrap giving a DT of 2.5 which is consistent with MET and PAT giving a FT of 2.5. CI is held at 3.0. Current objective aids: ADT 33 kts, AiDT 49 kt, DPRINT 41 kts, DMINT 39 kt, SATCON 47 kt (all 1-minute wind speeds). Surface observations at 12 UTC: Holmes Reef 41 knots easterly, Bougainville Reef 22 knots southwest. Current and previous observations indicate gales remain in at least three quadrants. Intensity is estimated at 45 knots. Jasper is starting to take a more westerly track towards the north tropical Queensland coast under the influence of a low-level and mid-level ridge to the south. There is good consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and Cairns, most likely between Cooktown and Port Douglas, on Wednesday afternoon. Because of the wind structure and speed of movement, gales are likely to be experienced on the coast around 6 hours before the centre crosses the coast. There is a large area of below gale force winds near the centre. CIMSS wind analysis indicates 2 knots of easterly shear at 06 UTC. Wind shear is forecast to stay in the low range through to landfall. SSTs remain warm at approximately 27 degrees Celsius. Based on these environmental conditions and NWP, some further intensification is possible prior to landfall, most likely very early Wednesday morning during the peak diurnally favourable period. In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is possible this weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1930 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm December 12 1 15.7S 147.4E 20 +6hr 4 am December 13 2 15.8S 146.9E 45 +12hr 10 am December 13 2 16.0S 146.3E 70 +18hr 4 pm December 13 2 16.0S 145.6E 95 +24hr 10 pm December 13 1 16.1S 144.9E 115 +36hr 10 am December 14 tropical low 16.2S 143.5E 155 +48hr 10 pm December 14 tropical low 15.9S 142.6E 200 +60hr 10 am December 15 tropical low 15.6S 141.4E 240 +72hr 10 pm December 15 tropical low 15.2S 140.2E 245 最后于 2023-12-12 21:25:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 147.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 147.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.6S 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.8S 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.0S 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.8S 142.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 147.0E. 12DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.5S 147.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 121 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS A WEAKENED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DECREASED WRAP AND BANDING OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED. CONVECTIVE TOPS ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO WARM, WHILE OVERALL OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED MINIMAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OBSERVED ON THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR LOOP BETWEEN 1130-1200Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND HELD ALONG AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT DECREASING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AROUND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND TILTED VERTICAL STRUCTURE TO THE EAST. ANALYSIS INDICATED THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH LOW VWS AND WARM SST OFFSET BY CONTINUED MINIMAL OUTFLOW AND COOL DRY AIR INTRUSION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 120930Z CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 121130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC JASPER WILL PROGRESS MORE WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR TO THE SOUTH AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF PORT DOUGLAS, APPROXIMATELY 74NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS AROUND TAU 18. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AT BEST UP TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION AND CONTINUED DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL INCREASE AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN JASPER TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48 AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER INLAND. THE REMNANTS OF TC JASPER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN PACK GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING TO 109NM BY TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-13 04:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1859 UTC 12/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 15.5S Longitude: 146.9E Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km) Movement Towards: west northwest (293 deg) Speed of Movement: 5 knots (10 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 990 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm (140 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 13/0000: 15.6S 146.3E: 025 (050): 055 (100): 984 +12: 13/0600: 15.7S 145.7E: 040 (075): 055 (100): 987 +18: 13/1200: 15.7S 145.0E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 993 +24: 13/1800: 15.8S 144.2E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 998 +36: 14/0600: 15.7S 143.1E: 085 (155): 030 (055): 999 +48: 14/1800: 15.4S 142.0E: 105 (195): 025 (045): 1000 +60: 15/0600: 15.1S 140.8E: 130 (240): 030 (055): 999 +72: 15/1800: 14.6S 139.7E: 145 (270): 035 (065): 998 +96: 16/1800: 13.5S 137.2E: 170 (310): 040 (075): 994 +120: 17/1800: : : : REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper has been slow moving and steady in intensity. Position is good can be seen on Cairns radar, local observations are available and the LLCC is obscured by cloud on satellite imagery. Tropical Cyclone Jasper has been struggling to maintain deep convection over the last 24 hours. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern, with 0.5 wrap giving a DT of 2.5. Low level bands have a larger wrap however the deep convection is limited and discontinuous within the bands. MET is 2.0 based on a W trend, PAT and FT are 2.5. CI is held at 3.0. Current objective aids: ADT 33 kts, AiDT 34 kt, DPRINT 45 kts, DMINT 45 kt (all 1-minute wind speeds). Surface observations at 18 UTC: Holmes Reef 37 knots easterly, Bougainville Reef 23 knots northwest, Low Isles 29 knots southeast. Current and previous observations indicate gales remain in at least three quadrants. Intensity is estimated at 45 knots. Jasper is moving slowly west northwest towards the north tropical Queensland coast under the influence of a low-level and mid-level ridge to the south. There is good consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and Cairns, most likely between Cooktown and Port Douglas, on Wednesday afternoon. Because of the wind structure and speed of movement, gales are likely to be experienced on the coast around 6 hours before the centre crosses the coast. There is a large area of below gale force winds near the centre. CIMSS wind analysis indicates 8.5 knots of northwest shear at 12 UTC. Wind shear is forecast to stay in the low range through to landfall. SSTs remain warm at approximately 27 degrees Celsius. Based on these environmental conditions some further intensification is possible prior to landfall, with deep convection near the centre currently showing early signs of improving. In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is possible this weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/0130 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 5 am December 13 1 15.6S 146.9E 20 +6hr 11 am December 13 2 15.7S 146.3E 50 +12hr 5 pm December 13 2 15.8S 145.6E 75 +18hr 11 pm December 13 1 15.8S 144.9E 95 +24hr 5 am December 14 tropical low 15.9S 144.2E 110 +36hr 5 pm December 14 tropical low 15.8S 143.1E 160 +48hr 5 am December 15 tropical low 15.5S 142.0E 195 +60hr 5 pm December 15 tropical low 15.1S 140.8E 235 +72hr 5 am December 16 tropical low 14.6S 139.7E 270 -
WTPS31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 032// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 147.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 147.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.9S 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.1S 144.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.2S 143.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.1S 142.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 15.5S 140.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 146.7E. 12DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 104 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900 AND 131500Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 032// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 147.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 104 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) AS A COILED, COMPACT VORTEX WITH SPIRAL BANDING PRIMARILY CONFINED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS INCREASING A BIT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC RELATIVE TO THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER COASTAL AUSTRALIAN WATERS OF AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS AND BEGINS MIXING OUT THE ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR THAT WAS WRAPPED INTO THE CIRCULATION A COUPLE DAYS AGO. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SEEN EXPANDING EASTWARD BUT IS BEGINNING TO STAGNATE IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON ASCAT DATA FROM 121222Z AND AN AMSR2 PASS FROM 121508Z SHOWING 40-45 KT WINDS 30 TO 50 NM SOUTH OF THE LLCC. JASPER PASSED JUST SOUTH OF BOUGAINVILLE REEF AT AROUND 121430Z, AND THE REEF IS REPORTING 29 KT NORTHERLY WINDS AS OF 121930Z. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 121730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) IS EXECUTING A FAIRLY ABRUPT TURN FROM ITS PREVIOUS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM NOW UNTIL LANDFALL IN QUEENSLAND IN A LITTLE OVER 12 HOURS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ANTICYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN QUEENSLAND, LEADING TO A STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF JASPER. NUMERICAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF THIS TURN, LEADING TO SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LANDFALL LOCATION. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD, AND THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT, NOW LYING 10 TO 15 NM SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING ABOUT 60 NM NORTH OF CAIRNS. HOWEVER, A GROUPING OF MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS, HAFS-A, AND HWRF PREDICT LANDFALL SIGNIFICANTLY CLOSER TO CAIRNS, WITHIN 20 NM OF THE CITY, DEPICTING THE SHORT-TERM MOTION UNCERTAINTY. REGARDING INTENSITY, WHILE JASPER HAD BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, CURRENT SIGNS INDICATE THAT THIS TREND HAS HALTED, AND JASPER MAY EVEN RESTRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS AROUND THE CENTER OF THE STILL COMPACT WIND FIELD. THE JTWC FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 50 KT IN 12 HOURS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW AS JASPER CROSSES THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA DURING THE 12 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD. THE VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BY 72 HOURS AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL REGENERATION AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP DURING THE OVERLAND PORTION OF THE TRACK, POTENTIALLY LEAVING THE REMNANTS OF JASPER IN A DISORGANIZED STATE WHEN THEY EMERGE BACK OVER WATER. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THIS DISORGANIZATION AND THE PRESENCE OF AMBIENT DRY AIR IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA MAY LIMIT THE PACE OF REGENERATION, IF ANY. WARNINGS WILL BE RESTARTED IF THE REMNANTS REGAIN WARNING CRITERIA OVER WATER. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, IGNORING SOME OF THE HIGH INTENSITY OUTLIERS PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN QUEENSLAND, SUCH AS HAFS-A WHICH SHOWS INTENSIFICATION TO 70-80 KT IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS DISMISSED AS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE VORTEX BEING INITIALIZED TOO STRONG IN HAFS-A. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-13 04:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 033// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 033 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 15.7S 146.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 146.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.0S 145.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.1S 143.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.0S 142.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.9S 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.2S 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 146.1E. 13DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130000Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z. // NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”将登陆澳大利亚昆士兰州东北部沿海
时 间：13日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬15.8度、东经146.3度
强度等级：二级热带气旋
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：990百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯北偏东方向约150公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”强度变化不大
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏西方向缓慢移动，强度变化不大。12月13日午后至14日上午，澳大利亚昆士兰州东部沿海将有7-8级大风，“贾斯珀”中心经过的附近海面或地区的风力可达9-10级，阵风11-12级；12月13日至17日，受热带气旋“贾斯珀”影响，澳大利亚北部地区有大到暴雨；其中，东北部地区有大暴雨或特大暴雨，累计降水量400-600 mm，沿海和山区局地超过600mm以上。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月13日08时00分）
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WTPS31 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 034// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 034 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 145.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 145.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.0S 144.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.0S 143.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.9S 142.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.6S 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.6S 139.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 145.5E. 13DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 034// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.7S 145.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 72 NM NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MORE COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTER AND COMPLETELY AROUND BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES THAT IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO MAINTAINED A BANDING EYE WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS (-55 TO -65 DEGREES CELSIUS) AROUND THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING EYE FEATURE AND A DEFINED CIRCULATION FEATURE IN A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING GUSTS TO 62KTS AT MOSSMAN, AUSTRALIA. ANALYSIS INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, WARM SST AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY DRY AIR INTRUSION AND IMMINENT LANDFALL. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 130425Z CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 130530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE EASTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 06, AND TRACK INLAND THROUGH CAPE YORK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE WITH LAND INTERACTION, INCREASED DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK, AND INCREASING VWS CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. THE REMNANTS OF TC JASPER WILL EXIT INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BEFORE TAU 48 AND TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA ASSUMES STEERING. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN PACK GRADUALLY AND EVENLY SPREADING OUT TO 82NM AT TAU 36. A NOTABLE OUTLIER IS NAVGEM THAT CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY AND UNREALISTICALLY STRAY FROM THE MAIN PACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIDGE. THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM. THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES OF LAND INTERACTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
