Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W

ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 030740 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 08.2S 160.7E AT

030600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND

PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD03F SLOW MOVING.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTOR OF

SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEMS LIES IN AN AREA OF

LOW SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND POOR LOW CONVERGENCE. SST

AROUND 30 DEGREES.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM WELL AND THE MOVEMENT IS

SOUTHWEST WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. TD03F IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT

OF OUR REGION BY TOMORROW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************

***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE

AREA. 

SSD此前升至T2.0/2.0，后降至T1.5/2.0

TXPS29 KNES 030026 TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92P)

B. 02/2330Z

C. 8.3S

D. 163.1E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. THE MET AGREES BASED ON A 24 HOUR SLOW DEVELPMENT TREND. THE PT ALSO AGREES. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO THE PULSING CONVECTION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL ...BROWN

TXPS29 KNES 030608
TCSWSP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92P)

B.  03/0530Z

C.  7.6S

D.  162.0E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F.  T1.5/2.0

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...DT=2.0 BASED ON 0.2 CURVED BANDING. MET=1.5 AND PT=1.5. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET BECAUSE PULSATING CLOUD FEATURES WERE NOT
CLEAR CUT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS。

    NIL

...KIM

高富帅预测巅峰约928

集系

新报gfs调弱到950左右

整合仍需时间

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 5:00 pm EST on Monday 4 December 2023

At 4 pm AEST Monday, a tropical low with central pressure 1001 hPa was located
near latitude 8.1 south longitude 157.8 east, which is about 280 km west
northwest of Honiara and 1640 km northeast of Cairns. The system is moving west
southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during Tuesday as
it tracks slowly to the southwest in the Solomon Sea. It is expected to
intensify further over following days as it moves on a general southwards track
into the central parts of the Coral Sea. 

During next week there is a chance that the system could move into the vicinity
of the Queensland coast. 

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 pm AEST today.

IDQ20065
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:39 pm EST on Monday 4 December 2023

At 10 pm AEST Monday, a tropical low with central pressure 1001 hPa was located
near latitude 8.5 south longitude 157.9 east, which is about 250 km west
northwest of Honiara. The system is moving south southwest at 9 kilometres per
hour.

The tropical low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone late on Tuesday
as it tracks slowly to the south-southwest in the Solomon Sea. It is expected
to intensify further over following days as it moves on a general
south-southwest track into the central parts of the Coral Sea. 

During next week there is a chance that the system could move into the vicinity
of the Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am AEST Tuesday.

SSD12Z分析升至T2.0/2.5
TXPS29 KNES 041153
TCSWSP


A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92P)


B.  04/1130Z


C.  8.0S


D.  157.4E


E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9


F.  T2.0/2.5


G.  IR/EIR/SWIR


H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 2.0 BASED ON A
24 HOUR STEADY TREND. PT IS ALSO 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET BECAUSE
BANDING WAS NOT CLEAR CUT.


I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...TURK

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 158.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, GUADALCANAL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 041059Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS ALSO SHOWING IMPROVED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCEPTIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE CORAL SEA AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

JTWC 14Z分析T1.0

TPPS10 PGTW 041517 


A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (SOUTH OF SOLOMON ISLANDS)


B. 04/1440Z


C. 8.99S


D. 157.34E


E. FIVE/HMWRI9


F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS


G. IR/EIR


H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL 
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.


I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   PETERSEN