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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1848 UTC 04/12/2023 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 02U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 8.9S Longitude: 157.6E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (194 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 999 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 05/0000: 9.0S 157.4E: 040 (075): 030 (055): 999 +12: 05/0600: 9.2S 157.3E: 050 (095): 030 (055): 998 +18: 05/1200: 9.4S 157.3E: 060 (115): 035 (065): 997 +24: 05/1800: 9.8S 157.2E: 070 (125): 040 (075): 995 +36: 06/0600: 10.6S 157.1E: 075 (140): 050 (095): 988 +48: 06/1800: 11.3S 156.7E: 085 (160): 065 (120): 978 +60: 07/0600: 12.1S 156.4E: 100 (190): 075 (140): 969 +72: 07/1800: 13.0S 156.0E: 110 (210): 085 (155): 961 +96: 08/1800: 14.7S 155.4E: 150 (275): 090 (165): 954 +120: 09/1800: 16.0S 154.7E: 190 (350): 090 (165): 954 REMARKS: Tropical low 02U has shown slow development in a moderately favourable environment during the past 24 hours, with gradual increases in both deep convection and curvature in the cloud pattern. Current position is based on microwave and animated IR satellite imagery, with some uncertainty. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with an 0.3 wrap giving DT 2.0. MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, however pattern T is adjusted down to 2.0. Final T and CI set at 2.0. Intensity is analysed at 30 knots with no objective aids or scatterometry available. The system is located to the southwest of an upper anticyclone, with some low to moderate northeasterly deep layer wind shear in place, but not sufficient to hinder development. Development of the system will also be aided by an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow in the short to medium term. As such, further intensification is expected, with the system forecast to develop into a severe tropical cyclone later in the week as it moves into the Coral Sea. The system has been tracking slowly SSW (acknowledging uncertainty in positions) under the steering of a weak mid-level ridge to the ESE. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough passes to the south during the next 24-36 hours. Once this trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia may partially cradle the system later in the week, giving the track more of a westward component. By early next week, this ridge is in turn eroded by the approach of another upper trough, though there is some divergence between model guidance on the strength and timing of this feature, and consequent uncertainty in the track going into these longer lead times. However, one credible scenario is that 02U may approach the Queensland coast as a tropical cyclone next week. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0130 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am December 5 tropical low 8.9S 157.6E 45 +6hr 10 am December 5 tropical low 9.0S 157.4E 75 +12hr 4 pm December 5 tropical low 9.2S 157.3E 95 +18hr 10 pm December 5 1 9.4S 157.3E 115 +24hr 4 am December 6 1 9.8S 157.2E 125 +36hr 4 pm December 6 2 10.6S 157.1E 140 +48hr 4 am December 7 3 11.3S 156.7E 160 +60hr 4 pm December 7 3 12.1S 156.4E 190 +72hr 4 am December 8 3 13.0S 156.0E 210 -
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WDPS31 PGTW 050300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (THREE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.4S 156.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 183 NM WEST OF HONIARA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 042005 SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN ORGANIZING TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING EXPANDING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH MORE FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY THE DEEP CONVECTION. ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED, PARTICULARLY POLEWARD INTO A STRONG JET STREAK TO THE SOUTH NEAR NEW CALEDONIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: CYCLONE 03P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EAST OF VANUATU. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA IS CURRENTLY ERODING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CAUSE 03P TO TURN SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CORAL SEA IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT EASTWARD, ALLOWING A NEW RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER SOUTHERN QUEENSLAND IN 24-48 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE EXPECTS CYCLONE 03P TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WITH A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE 24-120 HOUR PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS, PERHAPS AT A RAPID RATE AT TIMES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS, VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW, AND THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM IS BOOSTING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND THUS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN THE SHORT TERM. UNTIL AN INNER CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS FORMED, THE PACE OF INTENSIFICATION IS SUBJECT TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE JTWC FORECAST BRINGS 03P TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KT IN 72 HOURS, CLOSE TO THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY PREDICTED BY HAFS-A AND HWRF. THEREAFTER, THE POLEWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BRING 03P INTO A ZONE OF ELEVATED BACKGROUND WESTERLY SHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT IN MAGNITUDE. COUPLED WITH A PREEXISTING DRY AIR MASS OVER THE CORAL SEA, THIS SHEAR WOULD DISRUPT THE CYCLONE'S INNER CORE, LEADING TO WEAKENING. BEYOND 96 HOURS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO BEGIN COOLING BELOW 28 DEGREES CELSIUS, CONTRIBUTING TO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS ENVIRONMENTAL EVOLUTION AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING OF 03P DURING THE 72-120 HOUR PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT, SHOWING WEAKENING TO 75 KT BY 120 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE DRAWS WITHIN 250 NM OF QUEENSLAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS, BUT SPREAD INCREASES DURING THE 72-120 HOUR PERIOD DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN HOW QUICKLY 03P WILL MOVE POLEWARD AND HOW LONG THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER QUEENSLAND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE HAFS, HWRF, GFS, AND SHIPS MODELS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT EXHIBIT INCREASING SPREAD THROUGH 120 HOURS, IN PART DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK UNCERTAINTY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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WTPS31 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (THREE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (THREE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 9.4S 156.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S 156.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 10.3S 156.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 11.2S 156.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 11.9S 155.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.8S 155.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.5S 154.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.2S 153.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.0S 152.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 156.6E. 05DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (THREE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.4S 156.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 200 NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (THREE) SHOWING SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION, MOST PREVALENT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, WITH EMBEDDED ELEMENTS EXHIBITING OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME COMPLETELY OBSCURED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BY A BLOSSOMING CONVECTIVE CANOPY ALOFT. SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS MOST OBSERVABLE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AS CIRRUS FILAMENTS DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 051800Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 050530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO EAST OF TC 03P AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. FAVORABLE ALONG-TRACK CONDITIONS OF HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (5-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE TC TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND REALIZE THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 72, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS, DECLINING SST AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE FORECAST TO SET IN AND BRING ABOUT A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKENING OF THE TC. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 03P WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD GRADUALLY TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL. A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 102NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 142NM AT TAU 72 CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF MEDIUM. ADDITIONALLY, JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE SAME TIME INTERVAL. AFTER TAU 72, THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS DIFFER GREATLY IN SOLUTIONS AND OFFER MUCH UNCERTAINTY. BY TAU 120, A 456NM ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN MOGREPS AND GFS IS OBSERVED IN MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT AMBIGUITY PRESENTED IN TRACK SPEED DURING THE TAU 72 TO TAU 120 INTERVAL, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY IS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
澳大利亚附近海域“贾斯珀”生成
时 间：5日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬9.4度、东经157.2度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：993百帕
参考位置：所罗门群岛霍尼亚拉偏西方向约320公里的海面上
变化过程：“贾斯珀”在所罗门海生成
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时5-10公里左右的速度缓慢向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图3 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月03日14时00分）
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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1314 UTC 05/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 9.4S Longitude: 157.1E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west (270 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 994 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRs Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 05/1800: 10.0S 157.1E: 035 (065): 045 (085): 992 +12: 06/0000: 10.5S 157.1E: 050 (090): 050 (095): 989 +18: 06/0600: 10.9S 157.0E: 055 (105): 060 (110): 982 +24: 06/1200: 11.3S 156.8E: 060 (115): 070 (130): 974 +36: 07/0000: 12.1S 156.5E: 065 (120): 080 (150): 965 +48: 07/1200: 13.0S 156.2E: 080 (150): 090 (165): 955 +60: 08/0000: 13.9S 155.6E: 095 (180): 090 (165): 955 +72: 08/1200: 14.3S 155.2E: 110 (205): 085 (155): 959 +96: 09/1200: 15.1S 154.2E: 145 (270): 075 (140): 968 +120: 10/1200: 15.9S 153.0E: 220 (405): 070 (130): 973 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper, 02U, is slow moving over the Solomon Sea. Current position is based on animated IR satellite imagery, with good certainty. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with a 0.5 wrap with an additional 0.5 added due to the band being W or colder with significant region CDG giving DT 3.0. MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, pattern T is adjusted up to 3 also based on band being W or colder. Final T and CI set at 3.0. Objective aids are ADT 39 knots, AiDT 33 knots, DPRINT 46 knots, DMINT 45 knots (all 1-min). Intensity is maintained at 40 knots. The system is located to the southwest of an upper anticyclone, with some low northerly deep layer wind shear. Development of the system over the last 24 hours has been aided by an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow in the short to medium term. Although the intensity has plateaued over the past 6 hours, further intensification is expected, with the system forecast to develop into a severe tropical cyclone early Thursday as it moves into the Coral Sea. The system has been tracking slowly south under the steering of a weak mid-level ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough passes to the south during the next 24-36 hours. Once this trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia may partially cradle the system later in the week, giving the track more of a westward component. By early next week, this ridge is in turn eroded by the approach of another upper trough, though there is some divergence between model guidance on the strength and timing of this feature, and consequent uncertainty in the track going into these longer lead times. Recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper approaches the Queensland coast, between Cooktown and Mackay, on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone next week. Other potential outcomes are a more southerly track, consequently moving the system towards the Queensland coast south of Mackay, or a slow moving system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/1930 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm December 5 1 9.4S 157.1E 35 +6hr 4 am December 6 1 10.0S 157.1E 65 +12hr 10 am December 6 2 10.5S 157.1E 90 +18hr 4 pm December 6 2 10.9S 157.0E 105 +24hr 10 pm December 6 3 11.3S 156.8E 115 +36hr 10 am December 7 3 12.1S 156.5E 120 +48hr 10 pm December 7 4 13.0S 156.2E 150 +60hr 10 am December 8 4 13.9S 155.6E 180 +72hr 10 pm December 8 3 14.3S 155.2E 205 最后于 2023-12-05 21:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：