最新回复 (139)
-
WTPS31 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 9.2S 156.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 156.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 10.1S 156.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 11.0S 156.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 11.9S 156.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 12.8S 155.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 14.5S 154.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 15.7S 153.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.8S 152.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 9.4S 156.8E. 05DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.2S 156.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 192 NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) AS A CONSOLIDATING, QUASI- STATIONARY TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 051140Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LOW-LEVEL SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) INTER-MIXED WITH PERSISTING SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION, MOST PREVALENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 051128Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE SHOWS THE HIGHEST SURFACE WIND CONCENTRATION NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC WITH 35-45KTS, APPROXIMATELY 25NM TO 40NM OUTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER. SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS MOST OBSERVABLE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AS CIRRUS FILAMENTS DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETRY IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE LISTED BELOW AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 051130Z CIMSS DPRINT: 48 KTS AT 051300Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO EAST OF TC 03P AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. FAVORABLE ALONG-TRACK CONDITIONS OF HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (5-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE TC TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND RELISH IN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 72, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS, DECLINING SST AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE FORECAST TO SET IN AND BRING ABOUT A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKENING OF TC 03P (JASPER). MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 03P WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD GRADUALLY TURNING TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST INTERVAL. GALWEM OFFERS AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO FROM THE REST OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS NEAR TAU 96, TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY STEERING SCENARIO INSTEAD OF CARRYING ON WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. REMOVING GALWEM FROM THE ASSESSMENT FOR THIS REASON, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS 80NM AT BY TAU 72 AND 216NM BY TAU 120 BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS. MULTIPLE INDICATIONS OF IMMINENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED IN BOTH STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE 0600Z MODEL RUN, WHICH SHOWS A 77 PERCENT LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN TAU 06 AND TAU 30. DUE TO THE GENERAL ALIGNMENT OF GUIDANCE AND TIGHTLY ALIGNED INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY IS MEDIUM FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-07 20:50:05 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
-
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1905 UTC 05/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 10.1S Longitude: 157.4E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: south southeast (164 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 991 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 06/0000: 10.6S 157.4E: 045 (080): 050 (095): 989 +12: 06/0600: 11.1S 157.3E: 055 (100): 060 (110): 982 +18: 06/1200: 11.4S 157.1E: 055 (105): 070 (130): 974 +24: 06/1800: 11.9S 157.0E: 060 (115): 075 (140): 970 +36: 07/0600: 12.7S 156.7E: 070 (130): 085 (155): 960 +48: 07/1800: 13.6S 156.2E: 085 (160): 090 (165): 956 +60: 08/0600: 14.3S 155.8E: 105 (190): 090 (165): 954 +72: 08/1800: 14.7S 155.3E: 125 (230): 085 (155): 959 +96: 09/1800: 15.4S 154.2E: 160 (300): 075 (140): 968 +120: 10/1800: 16.4S 153.1E: 225 (420): 070 (130): 973 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper, 02U, has developed over the Solomon Sea. Current position is based on microwave and animated IR satellite imagery, with fair certainty. After being slow moving, Jasper is now showing clear movement to the south Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with a 0.5 wrap with an additional 0.5 added due to the band being W or colder giving DT 3.0. MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D- trend, pattern-T is 3.0. Final T and CI set at 3.0. ASCAT passes at 1042Z and 1128Z suggest that gales were mostly confined to the NE quadrant and previous intensity estimates may have been too high. Objective aids however have steadily increased the intensity with ADT 43 knots, AiDT 35 knots, DPRINT 60 knots, DMINT 49 knots, SATCON 46 knots (all 1-min). Intensity is set to 45 knots. The system is located to the southwest of an upper anticyclone, with some low northerly deep layer wind shear. Development of the system over the last 24 hours has been aided by an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow in the short to medium term. Although the intensity has plateaued over the past 6 hours, further intensification is expected, with the system forecast to develop into a severe tropical cyclone by Thursday as it moves into the Coral Sea. The system has been tracking slowly south under the steering of a weak mid-level ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough passes to the south during the next 24 hours. Once this trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia may partially cradle the system later in the week, giving the track more of a westward component. By early next week, this ridge is in turn eroded by the approach of another upper trough, though there is some divergence between model guidance on the strength and timing of this feature, and consequent uncertainty in the track going into these longer lead times. Recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper approaches the Queensland coast, between Cooktown and Mackay, on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone next week. Other potential outcomes are a more southerly track, consequently moving the system towards the Queensland coast south of Mackay, or a slow moving system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0130 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am December 6 1 10.1S 157.4E 55 +6hr 10 am December 6 2 10.6S 157.4E 80 +12hr 4 pm December 6 2 11.1S 157.3E 100 +18hr 10 pm December 6 3 11.4S 157.1E 105 +24hr 4 am December 7 3 11.9S 157.0E 115 +36hr 4 pm December 7 3 12.7S 156.7E 130 +48hr 4 am December 8 4 13.6S 156.2E 160 +60hr 4 pm December 8 4 14.3S 155.8E 190 +72hr 4 am December 9 3 14.7S 155.3E 230 -
WTPS31 PGTW 052100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 9.8S 157.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 176 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 157.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 10.7S 157.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 11.6S 157.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.6S 157.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.4S 156.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 14.8S 155.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.1S 154.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.0S 152.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 157.5E. 05DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149 NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 052100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 9.8S 157.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 149 NM WEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 051704Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT IS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE VISIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PARTIALLY OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LLCC IN EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS WELL AS CIMSS AUTOMATED ESTIMATES INDICATING 45-60KTS WITH THE MAJORITY FALLING CLOSER TO 55KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS ABRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 051442Z CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 051710Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) IS STILL LOITERING, NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) DUE WEST OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS, THE NER TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AND PUSH 03P GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PICKS UP SPEED, FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, CHARACTERIZED BY VIGOROUS OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL RAPIDLY INTENSITY THE SYSTEM TO OVER 100KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS, DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE ONSET OF WESTERLY COOL DRY AIR INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN 03P. BY TAU 72, 03P WILL TRANSITION STEERING CONTROL TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) DUE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AS VWS AND OUTFLOW WORSEN, THE SYSTEM WILL FALL TO ROUGHLY 70KTS BY TAU 96 AND AROUND 60KTS BY TAU 120 AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH FORCES THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A 113NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BY TAU 72. DESPITE THE SOLID CROSS TRACK AGREEMENT, ALONG TRACK SPREADING DOES INCREASE WITH TIME. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS INCLUDING SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS, INDICATING A SHARP INCREASE TO JUST OVER 100KTS BY TAU 48 AND A GRADUAL DECLINE THERE AFTER. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
-
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0155 UTC 06/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 10.6S Longitude: 157.3E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: south (191 deg) Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 987 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 06/0600: 11.0S 157.2E: 040 (070): 050 (095): 987 +12: 06/1200: 11.4S 157.1E: 045 (090): 065 (120): 976 +18: 06/1800: 11.8S 157.0E: 055 (100): 070 (130): 972 +24: 07/0000: 12.4S 156.9E: 055 (105): 080 (150): 964 +36: 07/1200: 13.4S 156.5E: 070 (130): 090 (165): 954 +48: 08/0000: 14.4S 156.0E: 090 (170): 100 (185): 943 +60: 08/1200: 15.0S 155.7E: 110 (210): 095 (175): 947 +72: 09/0000: 15.5S 155.1E: 125 (235): 085 (155): 958 +96: 10/0000: 16.4S 153.6E: 155 (285): 065 (120): 975 +120: 11/0000: 17.2S 151.9E: 230 (430): 065 (120): 975 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper, 02U, is intensifying over the Solomon Sea. Current position is based on animated VIS satellite imagery and ASCAT scatterometer. After being slow moving, Jasper is now showing a clear slow movement towards the south. Intensity 50kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis. Dvorak: curved band pattern with a 0.9 wrap, giving DT 3.5. MET is 3.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, pattern-T is 3.0. Final T and CI is based on DT and set at 3.5. ASCAT pass at 2233Z suggests that gales have extended from the NE quadrant, evident in the previous 1128Z pass, to the SE and SW quadrants. Current objective aids: ADT 55 kn, AiDT 46 kn, DPRINT 65 kn, DMINT 48 kn, SATCON 45 kn (at 15UTC) (all 1-min). The system is located in the vicinity of an upper anticyclone, with some low northerly deep layer wind shear. Development of the system over the last 24 hours has been aided by an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow in the short to medium term. Recent microwave and satellite images indicate development of significant banding, suggesting the system is now firmly on an intensification trajectory. Jasper is forecast to develop into a severe tropical cyclone overnight tonight as it moves into the Coral Sea. The system has been tracking slowly south under the steering of a weak mid-level ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough passes to the south during the next 12 to 24 hours. Once this trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia may partially cradle the system later in the week, giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast. Weak vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and excellent outflow channels will sustain the intensification of the system over the next 24 to 48 hours and a period of rapid intensification is likely. Maximum intensity is currently set at 100 knots, but a Category 5 (110kn) cannot be ruled out given the environmental conditions. Later Friday and into the weekend, the system may encounter increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment, which may curtail any further development and may potentially lead to a period of some weakening. Some models indicate there might an intensification phase if the system approaches the north Queensland coast next week. Recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper approaches the Queensland coast, between Cooktown and Mackay, on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone next week. Other potential outcomes are a slow moving system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0730 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 am December 6 2 10.6S 157.3E 45 +6hr 4 pm December 6 2 11.0S 157.2E 70 +12hr 10 pm December 6 3 11.4S 157.1E 90 +18hr 4 am December 7 3 11.8S 157.0E 100 +24hr 10 am December 7 3 12.4S 156.9E 105 +36hr 10 pm December 7 4 13.4S 156.5E 130 +48hr 10 am December 8 4 14.4S 156.0E 170 +60hr 10 pm December 8 4 15.0S 155.7E 210 +72hr 10 am December 9 3 15.5S 155.1E 235 -
WTPS31 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 10.8S 157.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 157.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 11.7S 157.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 12.7S 157.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.7S 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.6S 156.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.8S 155.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.8S 154.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.9S 152.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 157.3E. 06DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 10.8S 157.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 177 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, TYPHOON STRENGTH CIRCULATION WHOSE LLCC IS FULLY OBSCURED. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEGUN TO FULLY WRAP THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND HAVE BEGUN TO TRACE A POSSIBLE EYE FEATURE. A 052119Z 34GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A DRASTICALLY IMPROVED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH FULLY FORMED BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 052233Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY IMAGE INDICATES A SMALL SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A SURROUNDING WIND FIELD SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI, MICROWAVE AND ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 55-65KTS WITH MINIMAL DEVIATION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 052330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: ONGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) HAS ONCE AGAIN REGAINED FORWARD TRACK MOTION UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE NER TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD AND FORCE 03P GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PICKS UP SPEED, HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, CHARACTERIZED BY VIGOROUS OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL RAPIDLY INTENSITY THE SYSTEM TO OVER 100KTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING VWS, DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE ONSET OF WESTERLY COOL DRY AIR INTO THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN 03P FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 72, 03P WILL TRANSITION STEERING CONTROL TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) DUE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AS VWS AND OUTFLOW WORSEN, THE SYSTEM WILL FALL TO ROUGHLY 70KTS BY TAU 96 AND AROUND 60KTS BY TAU 120 AS THE STR FORCES THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD CROSS TRACK AGREEMENT BUT POOR ALONG TRACK AGREEMENT. THE VARIOUS MEMBERS AGREE AND ECHO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK MOTION HOWEVER, IT IS CLEAR THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING AND THEREFORE TRACK SPEEDS ARE NOT AGREED UPON. COAMPS-TC, HWRF AND ECMWF INDICATE A SLOWER POLEWARD TRACK SPEED WHILE GFS, NVGM AND HFAS-A INDICATE THE OPPOSITE. BASED ON THE INCREASING ALONG TRACK SPREADING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THERE AFTER. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS INCLUDING SEVERAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS, INDICATING A SHARP INCREASE TO JUST OVER 100KTS BY TAU 36 AND A GRADUAL DECLINE AFTER TAU 48. FOR THIS REASON THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
-
全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：6日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬10.8度、东经157.3度
强度等级：三级强热带气旋
最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：975百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东偏北方向约1420公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”由8级加强到12级
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月06日08时00分）
-
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0728 UTC 06/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 11.3S Longitude: 157.3E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: south (185 deg) Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h) Central Pressure: 977 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 06/1200: 11.8S 157.2E: 035 (065): 075 (140): 968 +12: 06/1800: 12.3S 157.2E: 045 (085): 080 (150): 964 +18: 07/0000: 12.7S 157.1E: 050 (095): 085 (155): 959 +24: 07/0600: 13.2S 156.9E: 055 (105): 090 (165): 954 +36: 07/1800: 14.2S 156.6E: 070 (135): 105 (195): 938 +48: 08/0600: 15.1S 156.3E: 095 (175): 105 (195): 938 +60: 08/1800: 15.8S 155.7E: 115 (215): 090 (165): 953 +72: 09/0600: 16.3S 155.1E: 135 (250): 080 (150): 962 +96: 10/0600: 16.9S 153.2E: 175 (320): 060 (110): 980 +120: 11/0600: 17.5S 151.6E: 230 (425): 060 (110): 979 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper, 02U, is rapidly intensifying over the southern Solomon Sea. Current position is based on animated VIS satellite imagery and recent microwave passes. Jasper is showing a clear movement towards the south. Intensity 65kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective aids. Dvorak: curved band pattern with a wrap of 1.35, gives DT 4.5. MET is 4.5 based on a 24 hour D+ trend, Pattern-T is 4.5. A ragged DG eye in EIR with a LG surrounding yields FT of 4.5. Final T and CI =4.5. Current objective aids: ADT 87 kn, AiDT 81 kn, DPRINT 69 kn, DMINT 67 kn (at 03 UTC), SATCON 72 kn (at 03UTC) (all 1-min). The environment is conducive for intensification: SSTs >28C; located in the vicinity of an upper anticyclone, in a low shear environment; and an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow. Recent microwave and satellite images indicate development of a ragged eye with marked improvement in the banding, suggesting the system is now firmly on a strong intensification trajectory. The system has been tracking slowly south under the steering of a mid-level ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough passes to the south during the next 12 hours. Once this trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia may partially cradle the system later in the week, giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast. Further intensification is expected in the next 36-48 hours. Maximum intensity is currently set at 105 knots, but a Category 5 (110kn) is possible given the environmental conditions. Later Friday and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air entrainment, should lead to a period of some weakening. Some models indicate there might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week. Recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper approaches the Queensland coast, between Cooktown and Mackay, on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone by mid next week. Other potential outcomes are a slow moving system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1330 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 pm December 6 3 11.3S 157.3E 35 +6hr 10 pm December 6 3 11.8S 157.2E 65 +12hr 4 am December 7 3 12.3S 157.2E 85 +18hr 10 am December 7 3 12.7S 157.1E 95 +24hr 4 pm December 7 4 13.2S 156.9E 105 +36hr 4 am December 8 4 14.2S 156.6E 135 +48hr 4 pm December 8 4 15.1S 156.3E 175 +60hr 4 am December 9 4 15.8S 155.7E 215 +72hr 4 pm December 9 3 16.3S 155.1E 250 -
WTPS31 PGTW 060900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 11.0S 157.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 157.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 11.9S 157.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.8S 156.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.8S 156.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.8S 156.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.2S 155.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.0S 153.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.6S 151.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 157.2E. 06DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 060900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.0S 157.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 187 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) SHOWING A NEARLY CLOUD-FREE DIMPLE LOCATED OVERHEAD THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), FIGHTING TO CLEAR OUT AN EYE FEATURE. LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS FLOOD LARGE SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. A RING OF OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDS THE FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE, MADE VERY OBSERVABLE IN A 060318Z AMSR2 36.5GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS COMPLETELY OBSCURE THE LLCC AND CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW DEVELOPING. VERY LOW (0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT CONTRIBUTE TO THE ASSESSMENT OF A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 060540Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS ABRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 72 KTS AT 060600Z CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 0630Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALONG-TRACK RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED, DRIVING UP THE SYSTEMS INTENSITY TO A PEAK OF NEAR 115KTS AROUND TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RAMP UP TO 35KTS BY TAU 60 AND WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE A WEAKENING TREND TO TRANSPIRE. TANGENTIAL TO THE BIFURCATION DISCUSSION BELOW, THE JTWC FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE SUSTAINMENT OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE EAST OF THE TC AND EVENTUALLY (TAU 72 TO TAU 120) THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE THE SYSTEM TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY BY TAU 120. SHOULD THE SOUTHERN RIDGE NOT BUILD IN AND INFLUENCE THE STEERING OF THE SYSTEM, A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MAY OCCUR NEAR TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS TWO DISTINCTLY SEPARATE SOLUTIONS. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS COINCIDE WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, OF WHICH TRACKS TC 03P SOUTHWARD GRADUALLY TURNING TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR TAU 120. THE BIFURCATION IN CONSENSUS MEMBERS OCCURS BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 72 IN GALWEM AND UKMET SOLUTIONS, WHEREBY A QUASI-STATIONARY SCENARIO ARISES AND THE TC LOITERS THROUGH TAU 120. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE BIFURCATED GUIDANCE AND TIMELINE, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TRACK IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM THEREAFTER. TIGHTLY ALIGNED INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR THROUGH TAU 24. DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR INTENSITY MIRRORS THAT OF THE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
-
全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”向偏南方向移动
时 间：6日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬11.0度、东经157.2度
强度等级：三级强热带气旋
最大风力：12级（36米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：972百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东偏北方向约1400公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”由8级加强到12级
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月06日14时00分）