最新回复 (139)
-
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1312 UTC 06/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 11.5S Longitude: 157.2E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: south (186 deg) Speed of Movement: 5 knots (8 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h) Central Pressure: 969 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 06/1800: 11.9S 157.1E: 040 (080): 080 (150): 964 +12: 07/0000: 12.4S 157.1E: 050 (095): 085 (155): 959 +18: 07/0600: 12.9S 157.0E: 055 (105): 090 (165): 954 +24: 07/1200: 13.5S 156.8E: 060 (115): 095 (175): 949 +36: 08/0000: 14.5S 156.5E: 075 (140): 105 (195): 938 +48: 08/1200: 15.3S 156.1E: 100 (185): 100 (185): 943 +60: 09/0000: 15.9S 155.5E: 125 (230): 080 (150): 963 +72: 09/1200: 16.2S 154.8E: 145 (270): 075 (140): 967 +96: 10/1200: 16.9S 152.9E: 185 (345): 060 (110): 979 +120: 11/1200: 17.4S 151.3E: 255 (470): 060 (110): 979 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper, 02U, is rapidly intensifying over the southern Solomon Sea. Current position is based on animated EIR satellite imagery, recent microwave passes, and a SAR pass at 0759 UTC. Jasper is showing a clear movement towards the south. Intensity 75kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective aids. Dvorak: curved band pattern in EIR with an adjustment for cold cloud gives DT 4.0. A MG eye surrounded by MG also give DT 4.0. MET is 4.5 based on a 24 hour D+ trend, Pattern-T is 4.5. Final T and CI =4.5. Current objective aids: ADT 79 kn, AiDT 82 kn, DPRINT 79 kn, DMINT 68 kn (at 07 UTC), SATCON 70 kn (all 1-min). The environment is conducive for further intensification: SSTs >28C; located in the vicinity of an upper anticyclone, in a low shear environment; and an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow. Recent microwave and satellite images indicate development of a ragged eye with marked improvement in the banding, suggesting the system is now firmly on a strong intensification trajectory. The system has been tracking slowly south under the steering of a mid-level ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough passes to the south during the next 12 hours. Once this trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia may partially cradle the system later in the week, giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast. Further intensification is expected in the next 36-48 hours. Maximum intensity is currently set at 105 knots, but a Category 5 (110kn) is possible given the environmental conditions. Later Friday and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air entrainment, should lead to a period of some weakening. Some models indicate there might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week. Recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper approaches the Queensland coast, between Cooktown and Mackay, on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone by mid next week. Another potential outcome is a slow moving system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1930 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm December 6 3 11.5S 157.2E 55 +6hr 4 am December 7 3 11.9S 157.1E 80 +12hr 10 am December 7 3 12.4S 157.1E 95 +18hr 4 pm December 7 4 12.9S 157.0E 105 +24hr 10 pm December 7 4 13.5S 156.8E 115 +36hr 10 am December 8 4 14.5S 156.5E 140 +48hr 10 pm December 8 4 15.3S 156.1E 185 +60hr 10 am December 9 3 15.9S 155.5E 230 +72hr 10 pm December 9 3 16.2S 154.8E 270 最后于 2023-12-06 21:15:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
-
-
-
WTPS31 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 11.6S 157.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 157.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 12.5S 156.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.5S 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.4S 156.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.3S 155.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.4S 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.9S 152.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.2S 150.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 157.0E. 06DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 11.6S 157.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 209 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) HAVING BRIEFLY EXPOSED A SYMMETRIC EYE, FREE OF DISCERNABLE HYDROMETEORS AT 060910Z, BUT THE FEATURE QUICKLY VANISHED WITH THE ONGOING TROCHOIDAL MOTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SPIRAL BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM, RIDDLED WITH LIGHTNING OBSERVATIONS. A 060759Z RCM 1 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR IMAGE UNVEILED A TIGHTENING OF MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND AN OVERALL LARGER WIND FIELD, EXPANDING NOTABLY FURTHER IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THAN OBSERVED 6 HOURS PRIOR. LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT CONTRIBUTE TO THE ASSESSMENT OF A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 061200Z HIMAWARI-9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS ABRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 70 KTS AT 061100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALONG-TRACK RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED, DRIVING UP THE SYSTEMS INTENSITY TO A PEAK OF NEAR 110KTS AROUND TAU 30. AFTER TAU 30, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RAMP UP TO 33KTS BY TAU 48 AND WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE A WEAKENING TREND TO TRANSPIRE. TANGENTIAL TO THE BIFURCATION DISCUSSION BELOW, THE JTWC FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE SUSTAINMENT OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE EAST OF THE TC AND EVENTUALLY (TAU 72 TO TAU 120) THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM TO A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BY TAU 120. SHOULD THE SOUTHERN RIDGE NOT BUILD IN AND INFLUENCE THE STEERING PATTERN, A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MAY ONSET BETWEEN TAU 60 AND 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A PRIMARY AND ALTERNATE TRACK SOLUTION. THE MAJORITY OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACK TC 03P SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, GRADUALLY TURNING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A WESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 120. AN ALTERNATE SOLUTION OCCURS BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 72 IN GALWEM AND UKMET SOLUTIONS, WHEREBY A QUASI-STATIONARY SCENARIO ARISES AND THE TC LOITERS THROUGH TAU 120. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE BIFURCATED GUIDANCE AND TIMELINE, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TRACK IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM THEREAFTER. GOOD ALIGNMENT IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR THROUGH TAU 24. DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR INTENSITY MIRRORS THAT OF THE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-07 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1911 UTC 06/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 11.7S Longitude: 157.1E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (206 deg) Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h) Central Pressure: 967 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 07/0000: 12.2S 157.1E: 040 (080): 080 (150): 963 +12: 07/0600: 12.7S 157.0E: 050 (095): 090 (165): 954 +18: 07/1200: 13.2S 156.8E: 055 (105): 095 (175): 949 +24: 07/1800: 13.8S 156.7E: 065 (115): 105 (195): 938 +36: 08/0600: 14.8S 156.4E: 080 (145): 105 (195): 938 +48: 08/1800: 15.5S 155.8E: 105 (190): 090 (165): 953 +60: 09/0600: 16.0S 155.1E: 125 (230): 080 (150): 963 +72: 09/1800: 16.3S 154.3E: 150 (275): 070 (130): 971 +96: 10/1800: 16.9S 152.3E: 200 (370): 060 (110): 980 +120: 11/1800: 17.3S 150.8E: 235 (435): 060 (110): 980 REMARKS: Development of Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has recently stalled, but further intensification is forecast over the next 24-36 hours. Current position is based on animated EIR satellite imagery and recent microwave passes. Motion has slowed but movement remains generally towards the south. Intensity 75kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective aids. Dvorak: Pattern has been unclear at times; a curved band pattern in EIR with an adjustment for cold cloud gives DT 4.0. At times an eye has appeared, MG eye surrounded by MG which also gives DT 4.0. MET is 4.5 based on a 24 hour D+ trend, Pattern-T is 4.5. Final T and CI =4.5 based on MET. Current objective aids: ADT 77 kn, AiDT 75 kn, DPRINT 77 kn, DMINT 68 kn (at 07 UTC), SATCON 71 kn (all 1-min). Despite the recent stall in development, the environment is still conducive for further intensification: SSTs >28C; located in the vicinity of an upper anticyclone, in a low shear environment; and an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow. The system still maintain good structure on microwave imagery. The system has been tracking slowly south under the steering of a mid-level ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough passes to the south during the next 12 hours. Once this trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia may partially cradle the system later in the week, giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast. Further intensification is expected in the next 24-36 hours. Maximum intensity is currently set at 105 knots, but a Category 5 (110kn) remains possible given the environmental conditions. Later Friday and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air entrainment, should lead to a period of some weakening. Some models indicate there might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week. Recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper approaches the Queensland coast, between Cooktown and Mackay, on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone by mid next week. Another potential outcome is a slow moving system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/0130 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am December 7 3 11.7S 157.1E 55 +6hr 10 am December 7 3 12.2S 157.1E 80 +12hr 4 pm December 7 4 12.7S 157.0E 95 +18hr 10 pm December 7 4 13.2S 156.8E 105 +24hr 4 am December 8 4 13.8S 156.7E 115 +36hr 4 pm December 8 4 14.8S 156.4E 145 +48hr 4 am December 9 4 15.5S 155.8E 190 +60hr 4 pm December 9 3 16.0S 155.1E 230 +72hr 4 am December 10 3 16.3S 154.3E 275 -
WTPS31 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 157.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 157.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.7S 157.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.8S 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.8S 156.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.5S 155.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.3S 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.9S 152.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.3S 150.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 157.1E. 06DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 727 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.xxx // NNNN
JTWC WILL EXERCISE TRANSFER OF SERVICE (TOS) PROCEDURES ON 06 DEC AT 1800Z. NORMAL OPERATIONS WILL RESUME 07 DEC AT 0000Z. DURING THIS PERIOD, ANY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS ISSUED BY REGIONAL SPECIALIZED METEOROLOGICAL CENTERS (RSMCs) IN THE AOR WILL BE REPACKAGED. THE PRODUCT SUITE WILL NOT INCLUDE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGES. ADDITIONAL MINOR DISRUPTIONS OR DEGRADATIONS IN SERVICE ARE POSSIBLE.
WTPS31 PGTW 062100 SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 008 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 157.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 206 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 157.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.7S 157.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 18 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.8S 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.8S 156.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.5S 155.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.3S 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.9S 152.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.3S 150.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 157.1E. 06DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 727 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.// BT #0001 NNNN
最后于 2023-12-07 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0145 UTC 07/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 12.0S Longitude: 156.9E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (210 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h) Central Pressure: 969 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 07/0600: 12.5S 156.9E: 030 (055): 085 (155): 961 +12: 07/1200: 13.0S 156.7E: 040 (075): 095 (175): 951 +18: 07/1800: 13.6S 156.6E: 045 (090): 100 (185): 946 +24: 08/0000: 14.1S 156.4E: 055 (100): 105 (195): 940 +36: 08/1200: 14.8S 156.1E: 075 (135): 105 (195): 939 +48: 09/0000: 15.2S 155.3E: 095 (180): 085 (155): 960 +60: 09/1200: 15.4S 154.5E: 120 (225): 075 (140): 969 +72: 10/0000: 15.5S 153.3E: 145 (265): 065 (120): 978 +96: 11/0000: 15.9S 151.1E: 180 (335): 060 (110): 982 +120: 12/0000: 15.9S 149.2E: 210 (385): 060 (110): 982 REMARKS: Development of Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has stalled during Thursday morning, but images over the last couple of hours are showing signs of intensification. Current position is based on animated EIR satellite imagery and recent microwave passes. Motion has slowed but movement remains generally towards the south southwest. Dvorak: a curved band pattern of 1.4 wrap in the VIS gives DT 4.5. At times an eye has appeared. MET is 4.5 based on a 24 hour D- trend, Pattern-T is 4.5. Final T and CI =4.5 based on MET. Current objective aids: ADT 82 kn, AiDT 78 kn, DPRINT 82 kn, DMINT 84 kn (at 19 UTC), SATCON 71 kn (all 1-min). Intensity 75kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective aids. The environment is conducive for further intensification: SSTs >28C; located in the vicinity of an upper anticyclone, in a low shear environment; and an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow. The system still maintains good structure on microwave imagery. The system has been tracking slowly south under the steering of a mid-level ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough passes to the south during the next 6-12 hours. Once this trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia may partially cradle the system later in the week, giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast. Further intensification is expected in the next 18-30 hours. Maximum intensity is currently set at 105 knots, but a Category 5 (110kn) remains a slight possibility given the environmental conditions. Later Friday and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air entrainment, should lead to a period of some weakening. Some models indicate there might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week. The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between Cooktown and Mackay on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the Queensland coast around Cairns. Another potential outcome (though only a very low chance) is a slow moving system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/0730 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 am December 7 3 12.0S 156.9E 30 +6hr 4 pm December 7 3 12.5S 156.9E 55 +12hr 10 pm December 7 4 13.0S 156.7E 75 +18hr 4 am December 8 4 13.6S 156.6E 90 +24hr 10 am December 8 4 14.1S 156.4E 100 +36hr 10 pm December 8 4 14.8S 156.1E 135 +48hr 10 am December 9 3 15.2S 155.3E 180 +60hr 10 pm December 9 3 15.4S 154.5E 225 +72hr 10 am December 10 3 15.5S 153.3E 265 -
WTPS31 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 156.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 156.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.0S 156.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.1S 156.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 14.9S 155.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.4S 154.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 15.8S 153.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.0S 151.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.2S 150.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 156.8E. 07DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 701 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.1S 156.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 701 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY WOUND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WAXING AND WANING EYE, WHICH IS MORE CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM A MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN 062031Z COWVR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IN THE MID-RANGE OF AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 03P CONTINUES TO CHURN POLEWARD WITH A STEADILY IMPROVING CORE SIGNATURE AND A LONG BAND OF CIRRUS STREAMING POLEWARD AND EASTWARD IN THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER, FORESHADOWING A CONTINUING INTENSIFICATION TREND. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: RCM-3 SAR DATA FROM 061906Z CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS ABRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 062330Z CIMSS DPRINT: 82 KTS AT 070000Z CIMSS DMINT: 84 KTS AT 061939Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING, TO APPROXIMATELY 75 NM AT TAU 120. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, INDUCING A WESTWARD TURN. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT A SPIKE IN THE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND CONSEQUENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WEAKENING IN THE MID-TERM IS EXPECTED TO END LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TRACK SOLUTIONS FOR TC 03P DIVERGE, INCLUDING SLOWING AND LOOPING MOTION INDICATED IN THE UKMET AND RELATED MODELS AND STEADY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IN THE GFS, GEFS, ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND EC-EPS SOLUTIONS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MORE LIKELY GEFS AND EC-EPS DISTRIBUTIONS, SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS ORIENTATION CONSISTENT WITH EC AND NCEP (GFS AND GEFS) DISTRIBUTIONS. IN CONTRAST TO DIVERGENCE IN TRACK SOLUTIONS, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST TREND THROUGH TAU 120 AND LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
-
全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：7日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬12.0度、东经156.9度
强度等级：三级强热带气旋
最大风力：13级（38米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：969百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东偏北方向约1320公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”由12级加强到13级
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月07日08时00分）