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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0952 UTC 07/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 12.6S Longitude: 156.9E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (192 deg) Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h) Central Pressure: 966 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 230 nm (425 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 07/1200: 13.1S 156.7E: 030 (055): 095 (175): 950 +12: 07/1800: 13.6S 156.6E: 040 (075): 100 (185): 945 +18: 08/0000: 14.1S 156.4E: 050 (090): 105 (195): 940 +24: 08/0600: 14.6S 156.2E: 055 (105): 105 (195): 940 +36: 08/1800: 15.0S 155.7E: 075 (145): 100 (185): 945 +48: 09/0600: 15.4S 154.9E: 100 (180): 080 (150): 964 +60: 09/1800: 15.6S 154.0E: 125 (235): 070 (130): 974 +72: 10/0600: 15.8S 153.0E: 150 (275): 060 (110): 982 +96: 11/0600: 16.1S 150.8E: 180 (335): 060 (110): 982 +120: 12/0600: 16.0S 148.8E: 205 (380): 060 (110): 982 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) is gradually intensifying. Current position is based on animated VIS/EIR satellite imagery. Motion is slowly towards the south southwest. Dvorak: Jasper is trying to form an eye, with WMG/LG surrounded by DG given DT 5.0. MET is 5.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, Pattern-T is adjusted to 5. Final T and CI =5.0 based on PAT/DT. Current objective aids: ADT 92 kn, AiDT 87 kn, DPRINT 97 kn, DMINT 84 kn (at 19 UTC), SATCON 82 kn (all 1-min). Intensity 80kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective aids. The environment is conducive for further intensification: SSTs >28C; located in the vicinity of an upper anticyclone, in a low shear environment; and an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow. The system has been tracking slowly south southwest under the steering of a mid-level ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough passes to the south. Once this trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia may partially cradle the system over the weekend, giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast. Further intensification is expected in the next 18-30 hours. Maximum intensity is currently set at 105 knots, but a Category 5 (110kn) remains a slight possibility given the environmental conditions. Later Friday and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air entrainment, should lead to a period of some weakening. Some models indicate there might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week. The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between Cooktown and Mackay on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the Queensland coast around Cairns. Another potential outcome (though only a very low chance) is a slow moving system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1330 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 pm December 7 3 12.6S 156.9E 30 +6hr 10 pm December 7 4 13.1S 156.7E 55 +12hr 4 am December 8 4 13.6S 156.6E 75 +18hr 10 am December 8 4 14.1S 156.4E 90 +24hr 4 pm December 8 4 14.6S 156.2E 105 +36hr 4 am December 9 4 15.0S 155.7E 145 +48hr 4 pm December 9 3 15.4S 154.9E 180 +60hr 4 am December 10 3 15.6S 154.0E 235 +72hr 4 pm December 10 2 15.8S 153.0E 275 -
WTPS31 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 12.8S 156.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 156.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.8S 156.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.7S 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.4S 155.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 15.7S 154.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.0S 153.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.1S 151.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 16.2S 149.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 156.7E. 07DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.8S 156.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 684 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P HAS FLIRTED WITH EYE FORMATION OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI). RECENT MSI REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CYCLING RAPIDLY AROUND A CLOUD-FILLED EYE. FORTUNATELY, A 070525Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A 25 TO 30 NM DIAMETER, WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND RANGE FROM 87 TO 92 KNOTS. DUE TO THE LACK OF WIND SPEED IMAGERY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND RADII ANALYSIS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST WITH A STRONGER STR ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 87 KTS AT 070258Z CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 070530Z CIMSS AIDT: 87 KTS AT 070530Z CIMSS DPRINT: 92 KTS AT 070500Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS WITH A SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WEAK EASTERN STR. AFTER TAU 24, TC 03P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO THE MORE DOMINANT STR TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL INCREASE FROM 20 KNOTS AT TAU 24 TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 60. THE 070000Z HAFS-A RUN ALSO INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE NORTHERN REGION OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, HAFS-A INDICATES A GRADUAL RE-MOISTENING OF THE CORE, WHICH, ALONG WITH DECREASING VWS, WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED THUS FAR WITH INCONSISTENT, UNREALISTIC FORECAST TRACKS, SPECIFICALLY GALWEM AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN. THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS AND INDICATE VERY SLOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD VALUES RANGE FROM 110 NM TO 120 NM FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EYE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT DAY AND SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITIES. THE 061800Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE IS NOT HOT ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) WITH 10 TO 20 PERCENT RI PROBABILITIES THROUGH TAU 36. ADDITIONALLY, NONE OF THE MORE RELIABLE RI AIDS ARE TRIGGERING AT THIS TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”强度逐渐增强
时 间：7日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬12.6度、东经156.9度
强度等级：三级强热带气旋
最大风力：14级（42米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：966百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东偏北方向约1290公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”由12级加强到14级
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月07日14时00分）
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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1329 UTC 07/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 13.1S Longitude: 156.8E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: south (185 deg) Speed of Movement: 6 knots (10 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots (155 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots (220 km/h) Central Pressure: 960 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 07/1800: 13.6S 156.6E: 030 (055): 095 (175): 945 +12: 08/0000: 14.1S 156.5E: 040 (075): 105 (195): 939 +18: 08/0600: 14.6S 156.3E: 050 (090): 105 (195): 939 +24: 08/1200: 14.8S 156.1E: 055 (105): 105 (195): 938 +36: 09/0000: 15.3S 155.4E: 070 (135): 090 (165): 955 +48: 09/1200: 15.5S 154.8E: 090 (170): 075 (140): 969 +60: 10/0000: 15.7S 153.8E: 115 (210): 065 (120): 978 +72: 10/1200: 15.8S 152.8E: 130 (240): 060 (110): 982 +96: 11/1200: 15.9S 150.7E: 140 (260): 060 (110): 982 +120: 12/1200: 15.9S 148.7E: 180 (330): 060 (110): 982 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) is gradually intensifying. Current position is based on animated EIR satellite imagery and scatterometry. Motion is towards the south. Dvorak: Jasper has formed an eye, although the structure is fluctuating with DT generally in the 4.5-5.0 range over the past 6 hours. MET is 5.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, Pattern-T is adjusted to 5.0. Final T and CI =5.0 based on PAT/DT. Current objective aids: ADT 117 kn, AiDT 99 kn, DPRINT 95 kn, DMINT 93 kn (at 0815 UTC), SATCON 82 kn (at 0600 UTC) (all 1-min). Intensity 85kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective aids. Structure is consistent with a 1046 UTC ASCAT-B pass. The environment is conducive for further intensification: SSTs >28C; located in the vicinity of an upper anticyclone, in a low shear environment; and an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow. The system has been tracking slowly south under the steering of a mid-level ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough passes to the south. Once this trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia is likely to cradle the system over the weekend, giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast. Further intensification is expected in the next 24 hours. Maximum intensity is currently set at 105 knots, but a Category 5 (110kn) remains a slight possibility given the environmental conditions. From Friday night and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air entrainment, should lead to a period of some weakening. Some models indicate there might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week. The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between Cooktown and Townsville on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the Queensland coast around Cairns. Another potential outcome (though only a very low chance) is a slow moving system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1930 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm December 7 3 13.1S 156.8E 30 +6hr 4 am December 8 4 13.6S 156.6E 55 +12hr 10 am December 8 4 14.1S 156.5E 75 +18hr 4 pm December 8 4 14.6S 156.3E 90 +24hr 10 pm December 8 4 14.8S 156.1E 105 +36hr 10 am December 9 4 15.3S 155.4E 135 +48hr 10 pm December 9 3 15.5S 154.8E 170 +60hr 10 am December 10 3 15.7S 153.8E 210 +72hr 10 pm December 10 2 15.8S 152.8E 240 最后于 2023-12-07 21:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 156.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 156.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.0S 156.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 14.9S 155.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.5S 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 15.9S 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.1S 152.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.2S 150.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 16.2S 148.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 156.6E. 07DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 959 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.1S 156.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 671 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, FORMATIVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION CYCLING RAPIDLY. A 071136Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH SPIRAL BANDING CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 071140Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE AS WELL AS EIR IMAGERY. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A 070807Z RCM-1 SAR IMAGE INDICATING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 87 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST WITH A STRONGER STR ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS ADT: 115 KTS AT 071130Z CIMSS AIDT: 95 KTS AT 071130Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS WITH A SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK EASTERN STR. A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE WIHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, TC 03P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO THE MORE DOMINANT STR TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-30 KNOTS FROM TAU 18 TO TAU 72. THE 070600Z HAFS-A RUN ALSO INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE NORTHERN REGION OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, HAFS-A INDICATES A GRADUAL RE-MOISTENING OF THE CORE, WHICH, ALONG WITH DECREASING VWS, WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GALWEM AND UK-MET ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKERS, WHICH REMAIN SLOW AND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE, THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. GFS HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND IS NOW IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKERS. CONSEQUENTLY, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS DECREASED WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A TRACK TOWARD OR VERY CLOSE TO WILLIS ISLAND. ALTHOUGH A WEAK EYE HAS FORMED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION, THE 070600Z COAMPS- TC ENSEMBLE SHOWS ZERO PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) THROUGH TAU 72 AND NONE OF THE RI AIDS ARE TRIGGERING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, RI PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO 10 PERCENT AFTER TAU 72 SUPPORTING THE REINTENSIFICATION PHASE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-08 05:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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