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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1911 UTC 07/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 13.7S Longitude: 156.9E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: south (180 deg) Speed of Movement: 6 knots (10 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots (185 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots (260 km/h) Central Pressure: 943 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 08/0000: 14.2S 156.7E: 030 (060): 105 (195): 939 +12: 08/0600: 14.6S 156.6E: 045 (080): 105 (195): 939 +18: 08/1200: 14.9S 156.3E: 050 (095): 105 (195): 938 +24: 08/1800: 15.1S 156.0E: 060 (110): 100 (185): 944 +36: 09/0600: 15.5S 155.4E: 070 (135): 080 (150): 964 +48: 09/1800: 15.7S 154.6E: 090 (170): 070 (130): 974 +60: 10/0600: 15.8S 153.6E: 115 (210): 060 (110): 982 +72: 10/1800: 16.0S 152.5E: 125 (235): 060 (110): 982 +96: 11/1800: 16.0S 150.5E: 140 (265): 055 (100): 982 +120: 12/1800: 16.1S 148.3E: 180 (330): 060 (110): 981 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has undergone a period of rapid intensification in the past 6 hours. Current position is based on animated EIR satellite imagery, with a clear eye discernible. Motion is towards the south. Dvorak: Jasper's eye has improved over the past 3-4 hours, with DTs generally in the 6.0 to 7.0 range (WMG eye with surrounding temp ranging from LG to W). MET is 6.0 based on a 24 hour D+ trend, Pattern-T is also 6.0. Final T and CI =6.0 based on PAT/DT (and constrained by 6 hour limit). Current objective aids: ADT 124 kn, AiDT 113 kn, DPRINT 105 kn, DMINT 97 kn (at 1451 UTC), SATCON 102 kn (all 1-min). Intensity 100kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective aids. Structure is consistent with a 1046 UTC ASCAT-B pass and a 1449 UTC AMSR2 pass. The environment is currently conducive for intensification: SSTs >28C; located in the vicinity of an upper anticyclone, in a low to moderate shear environment; and an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow. The system has been tracking south under the steering of a mid-level ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough passes to the south. Once this trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia is likely to cradle the system over the weekend, giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast. Further intensification is possible in the next 12 hours. Maximum intensity is currently set at 105 knots, but a Category 5 (110kn) remains a possibility given the current intensity and environmental conditions. From Friday night and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air entrainment, should lead to a period of some weakening. Some models indicate there might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week. The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between Cooktown and Townsville on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the Queensland coast around Cairns. There is a chance that the system may move across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria towards next weekend, however there is uncertainty over whether it would retain a suitable enough structure to redevelop. Another potential outcome (though only a very low chance) is a slow moving system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0130 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am December 8 4 13.7S 156.9E 30 +6hr 10 am December 8 4 14.2S 156.7E 60 +12hr 4 pm December 8 4 14.6S 156.6E 80 +18hr 10 pm December 8 4 14.9S 156.3E 95 +24hr 4 am December 9 4 15.1S 156.0E 110 +36hr 4 pm December 9 3 15.5S 155.4E 135 +48hr 4 am December 10 3 15.7S 154.6E 170 +60hr 4 pm December 10 2 15.8S 153.6E 210 +72hr 4 am December 11 2 16.0S 152.5E 235 -
WTPS31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 13.8S 156.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 156.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.7S 156.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.4S 155.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 15.9S 154.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.2S 154.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.4S 152.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.4S 150.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 16.5S 148.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 156.6E. 07DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 657 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.8S 156.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 105 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 657 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 37 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVING 15-20NM EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS AND PERSISTENT VIGOROUS OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS VERTICAL ALIGNMENT, A SLIGHT TROCHOIDAL WOBBLE IS EVIDENT AS 03P GLIDES POLEWARD. A 071451Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A CLEARLY DEFINED EYE AND NEARLY COMPLETE EYE WALL WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND AMSR2 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ALL DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 115KTS WHILE CIMSS AUTOMATED ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 102KTS-124KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: ONGOING TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST TO A STRONGER STR TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS ABRF: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 102 KTS AT 071800Z CIMSS ADT: 124 KTS AT 071730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 03P WILL BE FORCED INTO AN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD COURSE AS STEERING CONTROL IS TRANSFERRED TO THE STR TO THE SOUTH. AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY NEAR TAU 12 OF 110KTS AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEGRADE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) INCREASES, COOL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BEGINS TO DWINDLE. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AND BY TAU 96, 03P WILL BARELY CLING TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. ALL IS NOT LOST HOWEVER, NEAR TAU 100, VWS IS FORECASTED TO ONCE AGAIN FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS. REDUCED VWS WHEN COUPLED WITH IMPROVING MOISTURE CONTENT WITHIN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW 03P TO SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FORECAST WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. HWRF AND COAMPS-TC (NVGM VERSION) ARE SLIGHT SOUTHERLY OUTLIERS AS THE SYSTEM ALTERS COURSE TOWARD EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TRACK CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLE BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS MEDIUM. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY WITH ALL MEMBERS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH GRADUAL DECLINE OCCURS THROUGH TAU 100. THE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IS GREATEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST WHICH IS TYPICAL BUT WHEN COMPOUNDED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION, THE SPREAD IS FURTHER EXACERBATED. AS A RESULT THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-08 05:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0118 UTC 08/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 14.2S Longitude: 156.6E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: south (190 deg) Speed of Movement: 6 knots (10 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 105 knots (195 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 145 knots (270 km/h) Central Pressure: 940 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 50 nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 08/0600: 14.7S 156.5E: 030 (055): 105 (195): 939 +12: 08/1200: 15.0S 156.4E: 045 (080): 105 (195): 938 +18: 08/1800: 15.3S 156.2E: 055 (100): 100 (185): 944 +24: 09/0000: 15.5S 155.8E: 065 (120): 090 (165): 955 +36: 09/1200: 15.7S 155.3E: 085 (155): 075 (140): 969 +48: 10/0000: 16.1S 154.3E: 105 (200): 065 (120): 978 +60: 10/1200: 16.3S 153.1E: 125 (230): 060 (110): 982 +72: 11/0000: 16.6S 151.9E: 125 (235): 055 (100): 986 +96: 12/0000: 16.0S 150.3E: 135 (250): 055 (100): 985 +120: 13/0000: 15.9S 148.2E: 185 (340): 065 (120): 978 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has undergone a period of rapid intensification overnight. Current position is based on animated EIR/VIS satellite imagery, with a clear eye discernible. Motion is towards the south. Dvorak: Recent DTs have been in the 6.0 to 6.5 range (WMG/OW eye with surrounding temp ranging from B to W). Eye is somewhat ragged and elongated. MET is 6.0 based on a 24 hour D+ trend, Pattern-T is also 6.0. Final T and CI =6.0 based on DT. Current objective aids: ADT 127 kn, AiDT 121 kn, DPRINT 114 kn, DMINT 108 kn (at 1926 UTC), SATCON 119 kn (1926 UTC), all 1-min. Intensity 105kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective aids. Structure is consistent with a 1914 UTC SAR pass. The environment remains very favourable: SSTs >28C; located in the vicinity of an upper anticyclone, in a low to moderate shear environment; and an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow. CIMMS winds indicate excellent outflow channels in southern quadrants. The system has been tracking south under the steering of a mid-level ridge to the east and southeast. This influence and track is likely to continue today. A stronger steering ridge extending from Australia is likely to cradle the system over the weekend, giving the track more of a westward component towards the Queensland coast. Further intensification is possible today. A category 5 system cannot be ruled out. Overnight and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air entrainment should lead to a period of weakening. Some models indicate there might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week. The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between Cooktown and Townsville on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the Queensland coast around Cairns or Port Douglas. There is a chance that the system may move across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria towards next weekend, however there is uncertainty over whether it would retain a suitable enough structure to redevelop. Another potential outcome (though only a very low chance) is a slow moving system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0730 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 am December 8 4 14.2S 156.6E 30 +6hr 4 pm December 8 4 14.7S 156.5E 55 +12hr 10 pm December 8 4 15.0S 156.4E 80 +18hr 4 am December 9 4 15.3S 156.2E 100 +24hr 10 am December 9 4 15.5S 155.8E 120 +36hr 10 pm December 9 3 15.7S 155.3E 155 +48hr 10 am December 10 3 16.1S 154.3E 200 +60hr 10 pm December 10 2 16.3S 153.1E 230 +72hr 10 am December 11 2 16.6S 151.9E 235 -
WTPS31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 156.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 156.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.0S 156.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.5S 155.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 15.9S 155.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.3S 154.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.8S 151.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.6S 149.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 16.5S 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 156.5E. 08DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.2S 156.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 120 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 645 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL- DEFINED, ROUGHLY 25NM EYE WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPING SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL QUADRANTS. A RECENT 072253Z TROPICS-6 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC 25NM MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 071914Z RCM3 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR) PASS REVEALED LARGER WIND RADII IN ALL QUADRANTS AND A VMAX OF 120KTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SAR, MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SAR DATA FURTHER REINFORCED BY AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES, ALL OF WHICH INDICATE 120-127KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: ONGOING TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST TO A STRONGER STR TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS ABRF: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 120 KTS AT 071926Z CIMSS ADT: 127 KTS AT 072320Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, 03P WILL BE FORCED INTO AN INCREASINGLY WESTWARD COURSE AS STEERING CONTROL IS TRANSFERRED TO THE STR TO THE SOUTH. HAVING MOST LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 120KTS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) INCREASES, COOL DRY AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BEGINS TO DWINDLE. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AND BY TAU 72, 03P WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO ROUGHLY 70KTS. ALL IS NOT LOST HOWEVER, NEAR TAU 96, VWS IS FORECASTED TO ONCE AGAIN FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS. REDUCED VWS WHEN COUPLED WITH IMPROVING MOISTURE CONTENT WITHIN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW 03P TO SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FORECAST WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. HWRF IS NOW THE SOLE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER AS THE SYSTEM ALTERS COURSE TOWARD EASTERN AUSTRALIA. ALONG TRACK CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS MEDIUM. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY WITH ALL MEMBERS STAGNATING THE SYSTEM OR SLIGHTLY WEAKENING IT THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH GRADUAL DECLINE OCCURS THROUGH TAU 72. THE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS IS GREATEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST WHICH IS TYPICAL BUT WHEN COMPOUNDED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION, THE SPREAD IS FURTHER EXACERBATED. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED INITIALLY WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：8日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬14.2度、东经156.6度
强度等级：四级强热带气旋
最大风力：16级（54米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级）
中心气压：940百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东偏北方向约1200公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”由14级加强到16级
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月08日08时00分）
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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0706 UTC 08/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 14.4S Longitude: 156.6E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (203 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 105 knots (195 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 145 knots (270 km/h) Central Pressure: 938 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm (390 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 08/1200: 14.7S 156.5E: 030 (055): 105 (195): 938 +12: 08/1800: 15.0S 156.2E: 045 (080): 100 (185): 944 +18: 09/0000: 15.2S 155.9E: 050 (095): 090 (165): 955 +24: 09/0600: 15.4S 155.7E: 060 (110): 080 (150): 964 +36: 09/1800: 15.6S 154.9E: 070 (135): 070 (130): 974 +48: 10/0600: 16.0S 153.8E: 090 (165): 060 (110): 982 +60: 10/1800: 16.2S 152.6E: 095 (180): 060 (110): 982 +72: 11/0600: 16.2S 151.7E: 105 (190): 055 (100): 985 +96: 12/0600: 15.7S 149.9E: 125 (235): 055 (100): 985 +120: 13/0600: 15.7S 147.7E: 175 (325): 065 (120): 978 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) remains at category 4 strength. The cloud signature suggested a peak in intensity earlier this afternoon, with a clear circular eye present. However the eye has since begun to cool and fill, suggesting Jasper may be beginning a weakening trend. Recent microwave passes also indicate a weakening in the northern sector of the eyewall. Recent motion has been trochoidal towards the south. Intensity is set at 105kn based primarily on Dvorak analysis, supported by objective aids. Dvorak: Recent DTs have been in the 5.5 to 6.5 range (WMG/OW eye with surrounding temp ranging from B to LG). MET is 6.0 based on a 24 hour D trend, Pattern-T is also 6.0. Final T and CI =6.0 based on DT. Current objective aids: ADT 122 kn, AiDT 113 kn, DPRINT 117 kn, DMINT 121 kn (at 0515 UTC), SATCON 110 kn (0328 UTC), all 1-min. Structure is consistent with recent SAR passes at 1914 UTC and 0303 UTC. There is some evidence that the environment is becoming less favourable for development: although SSTs remain >28C, favourable outflow is now restricted to the southern quadrants only and the system's track is expected to take it into progressively stronger wind shear. Further intensification is unlikely now, as positive environmental influences start to decay. The system has been tracking south southwest under the steering of a mid-level ridge to the east and southeast. This influence and track is likely to continue today. Once the mid-level trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia is likely to cradle the system over the weekend, giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast. From Friday night and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment, should lead to a period of gradual weakening. Some models indicate there might be an intensification phase with easing of wind shear as Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week. The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between Cape Melville and Townsville on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the Queensland coast in the vicinity of Cairns or Port Douglas. There is a chance that the system may move across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria towards next weekend, however there is uncertainty over whether it would retain a suitable enough structure to redevelop. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/1330 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 pm December 8 4 14.4S 156.6E 30 +6hr 10 pm December 8 4 14.7S 156.5E 55 +12hr 4 am December 9 4 15.0S 156.2E 80 +18hr 10 am December 9 4 15.2S 155.9E 95 +24hr 4 pm December 9 3 15.4S 155.7E 110 +36hr 4 am December 10 3 15.6S 154.9E 135 +48hr 4 pm December 10 2 16.0S 153.8E 165 +60hr 4 am December 11 2 16.2S 152.6E 180 +72hr 4 pm December 11 2 16.2S 151.7E 190 -
WTPS31 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 156.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 156.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.1S 156.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 15.6S 155.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.0S 154.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.3S 153.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.6S 151.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 16.5S 148.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.4S 146.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 156.4E. 08DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 634 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 941 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.5S 156.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 634 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P PEAKED AT ABOUT 120-125 KNOTS NEAR 080000Z AFTER FORMING A SYMMETRIC, CLEAR EYE. SINCE THAT TIME, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A STEADY WEAKENING TREND WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND ERODING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND CONVERGENT UPPER- LEVEL FLOW. A 080705Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A 30 NM DIAMETER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WITH A BREAK IN THE EYEWALL OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT AND EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON A 080512Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED 080705Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 110 TO 122 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WITH A STRONG STR ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS ABRF: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 110 KTS AT 080530Z CIMSS ADT: 122 KTS AT 080600Z CIMSS AIDT: 112 KTS AT 080600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03P WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 120. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER, REINTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LATER TAUS AS VWS RELAXES AND THE SYSTEM GOES THROUGH A RE-MOISTENING PHASE. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN IMPROVED AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF ONLY 77 NM AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH A 228 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE 080000Z ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO REVEAL INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH ALL MESOSCALE MODELS SHOWING A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE AFTER TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY, THE 080000Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATES A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MODERATE INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：8日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬14.4度、东经156.6度
强度等级：四级强热带气旋
最大风力：16级（54米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级）
中心气压：938百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东偏北方向约1190公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”由14级加强到16级
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月08日14时00分）
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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1323 UTC 08/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 14.9S Longitude: 156.4E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (201 deg) Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots (185 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots (260 km/h) Central Pressure: 946 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 230 nm (425 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 08/1800: 15.2S 156.2E: 030 (055): 100 (185): 944 +12: 09/0000: 15.5S 155.9E: 040 (075): 090 (165): 955 +18: 09/0600: 15.8S 155.6E: 050 (095): 080 (150): 964 +24: 09/1200: 15.9S 155.3E: 060 (110): 075 (140): 969 +36: 10/0000: 16.2S 154.1E: 075 (145): 065 (120): 978 +48: 10/1200: 16.5S 152.6E: 090 (170): 060 (110): 983 +60: 11/0000: 16.8S 151.3E: 100 (185): 055 (100): 986 +72: 11/1200: 16.7S 150.1E: 105 (195): 055 (100): 986 +96: 12/1200: 16.3S 147.9E: 135 (250): 060 (110): 982 +120: 13/1200: 16.7S 145.1E: 190 (355): 060 (110): 983 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has peaked and now expected to weaken. Position based on IR imagery supported by earlier more accurate microwave images. Microwave shows some tilt so correction of 0.2 degree to north and west applied to IR position. Intensity: maintained at 100kn based on Dvorak analysis and supported by objective aids. Dvorak: Eye structure has varied considerably in recent hours: DTs in the 5.5 to 6.0 range (time averaged 6.0 based on B surround with OW/B eye). MET= 5.5 based on a 24 h D- trend without adjustment. Final T and CI = 6.0. Current objective aids: ADT 117 kn, AiDT 105 kn, DPRINT 101 kn, DMINT 121 kn (at 07 UTC), SATCON 110 kn (0530 UTC), all 1-min. Wind structure: gales extend further in southern quadrants assisted by environmental SE'ly flow. The eye remains larger than normal, RMW being 20nm. Partial SAR pass at 0814UTC shows western quadrant gale extent consistent with earlier ASCAT and SAR. Moderate NW wind shear (currently 15kn from CIMSS) is expected to increase leading to weakening in the next 72 hours. The shear may lead to drier air being entrained into the circulation to contribute to the weakening. Otherwise SSTs remain >28C, favourable outflow is now restricted to the southern quadrants only. The system has been tracking slowly to the south influenced by a weak mid-level ridge to the east and southeast and beta effect contribution. By late Saturday and on Sunday a stronger steering ridge to the south is expected to take Jasper on a westward track towards the coast. There is now stronger agreement amongst the range of model guidance leading to increased confidence in this westward track scenario towards the coast. The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between Cape Melville (north of Cooktown) and Townsville, which includes Cairns, on a westerly track on Wednesday or Thursday. By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast to ease with the potential for a period of intensification ahead of landfall, and a severe impact remains a possibility at this stage. In the much longer term, some model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria and redevelops towards next weekend and redevelop. The system has been tracking south southwest under the steering of a mid-level ridge to the east and southeast. This influence and track is likely to continue today. Once the mid-level trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia is likely to cradle the system over the weekend, giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast. From Friday night and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment, should lead to a period of gradual weakening. Some models indicate there might be an intensification phase with easing of wind shear as Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week. The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between Cape Melville and Townsville on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the Queensland coast in the vicinity of Cairns or Port Douglas. There is a chance that the system may move across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria towards next weekend, however there is uncertainty over whether it would retain a suitable enough structure to redevelop. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/1930 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm December 8 4 14.9S 156.4E 30 +6hr 4 am December 9 4 15.2S 156.2E 55 +12hr 10 am December 9 4 15.5S 155.9E 75 +18hr 4 pm December 9 3 15.8S 155.6E 95 +24hr 10 pm December 9 3 15.9S 155.3E 110 +36hr 10 am December 10 3 16.2S 154.1E 145 +48hr 10 pm December 10 2 16.5S 152.6E 170 +60hr 10 am December 11 2 16.8S 151.3E 185 +72hr 10 pm December 11 2 16.7S 150.1E 195 最后于 2023-12-08 21:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 156.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 156.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.5S 155.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.0S 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.3S 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.6S 153.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.8S 150.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 16.7S 148.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.6S 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 156.3E. 08DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 628 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.0S 156.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 628 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P HAS WEAKENED STEADILY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A CLOUD-FILLED EYE. FORTUNATELY, A 081115Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WEAK BUT DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. ADDITIONALLY, MUCH OF THE OUTER DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS ERODED DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT LEAVING EXPOSED SHALLOW BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MHS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN T5.5 AND T6.0 OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT T6.0 BY ALL AGENCIES. HOWEVER, CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW A LARGER SPREAD OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 96 KNOTS TO 117 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WITH A STRONG STR ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS ABRF: T6.0 - 115 KTS CIMSS ADT: 117 KTS AT 081120Z CIMSS AIDT: 103 KTS AT 081330Z CIMSS DPRINT: 96 KTS AT 081300Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03P WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 120. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER, REINTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LATER TAUS AS VWS RELAXES AND THE SYSTEM GOES THROUGH A RE-MOISTENING PHASE. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 70 NM AT TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH A 244 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE 080000Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND THE 080600Z GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO REVEAL INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72 WITH MESOSCALE MODELS SPLIT ON REINTENSIFICATION. COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) SHOWS A SHARP REINTENSIFICATION TREND WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 88 KNOTS. HAFS-A HAD PREVIOUSLY INDICATED REINTENSIFICATION BUT NOW SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH LANDFALL. EXAMINATION OF THE HAFS-A 700-300 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY CHARTS INDICATES THAT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE 080600Z COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INDICATES ONLY A 30 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MODERATE INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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