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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1935 UTC 08/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 15.2S Longitude: 156.2E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (206 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots (175 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots (250 km/h) Central Pressure: 951 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 230 nm (425 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 09/0000: 15.5S 155.9E: 035 (065): 090 (165): 955 +12: 09/0600: 15.7S 155.7E: 045 (085): 080 (150): 964 +18: 09/1200: 15.9S 155.3E: 055 (105): 075 (140): 969 +24: 09/1800: 16.0S 154.7E: 065 (120): 070 (130): 974 +36: 10/0600: 16.4S 153.4E: 085 (155): 060 (110): 982 +48: 10/1800: 16.7S 151.9E: 095 (170): 055 (100): 983 +60: 11/0600: 16.8S 150.7E: 100 (185): 055 (100): 986 +72: 11/1800: 16.6S 149.7E: 115 (215): 055 (100): 985 +96: 12/1800: 16.4S 147.3E: 155 (290): 065 (120): 982 +120: 13/1800: 16.8S 144.6E: 200 (375): 050 (095): 989 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) is now weakening and recent imagery showing the loss of an eye pattern. Position based on IR imagery, without any recent microwave support. IR imagery shows the centre wobbling about that is in part likely to trochoidal motion. Intensity: 95kn based on Dvorak analysis and supported by objective aids that all now show weakening. Dvorak: Embedded Centre (in Black): DT=5.0. MET= 5.0 based on a 24 h W trend. Final T 5.0 and CI = 5.5. Current objective aids: SATCON 95 kn, ADT 107 kn, AiDT 95 kn, DPRINT 90 kn, DMINT not updated. all 1-min. Wind structure: gales extend further in southern quadrants assisted by environmental SE'ly flow. RMW= 20nm. Weakening is occurring under increasing NW wind shear (25kn from CIMSS). Weakening should continue in the next 72 hours aided by drier air being entrained into the circulation. Otherwise SSTs remain >28C but upper level outflow is now restricted to the southern quadrants only. Jasper has been tracking slowly to the south southwest influenced by a weak mid-level ridge to the east and southeast and beta effect contribution. By late Saturday and on Sunday a stronger steering ridge to the south is expected to take Jasper on a westward track towards the coast. There is now stronger agreement amongst the range of model guidance leading to increased confidence in this westward track scenario towards the coast. The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast between Cape Melville (north of Cooktown) and Townsville, which includes Cairns, on about Wednesday. By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast to ease with the potential for a period of intensification ahead of landfall, and a severe impact remains a possibility at this stage. In the much longer term, some model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria and redevelops next Friday and Saturday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0130 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am December 9 4 15.2S 156.2E 35 +6hr 10 am December 9 4 15.5S 155.9E 65 +12hr 4 pm December 9 3 15.7S 155.7E 85 +18hr 10 pm December 9 3 15.9S 155.3E 105 +24hr 4 am December 10 3 16.0S 154.7E 120 +36hr 4 pm December 10 2 16.4S 153.4E 155 +48hr 4 am December 11 2 16.7S 151.9E 170 +60hr 4 pm December 11 2 16.8S 150.7E 185 +72hr 4 am December 12 2 16.6S 149.7E 215 -
WTPS31 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 156.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 156.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 15.9S 155.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.4S 155.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.8S 153.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.9S 151.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.5S 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 16.0S 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.9S 144.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 156.3E. 08DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.3S 156.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 618 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND ERODED SYSTEM, WITH THE RAGGED EYE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED, HAVING FILLED-IN AND DISSIPATED. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT REMAINS DISORGANIZED. DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE IRREGULAR NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS ASSESSED PRIMARILY USING AGENCY FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HEDGED LOWER THAN THE AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES DUE TO THE MUCH LOWER OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE AIDT (97 KTS), DPRINT (90 KTS) AND THE SATCON (95 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, PASSING THROUGH AN INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SSTS, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (20-25 KTS) WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE STRONG SHEAR IS ALSO USHERING IN AN INFLUX OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST, WHICH IS WRAPPING INTO THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: TRANSITION POINT BETWEEN NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS ABRF: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 95 KTS AT 081730Z CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 081730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH A LARGE COL-REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 12, THE STR TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME THE DOMINANT STEERING ROLE, AND THE TRACK WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A WEST-SOUTHWEST THEN DUE WEST COURSE THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING WEST, IT WILL ALSO ACCELERATE ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STR, PASSING THE OUTERMOST CORAL SEA REEFS BY AROUND TAU 60. THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A BIT NORTHWARD AROUND TAU 72, AND IN RESPONSE, THE TRACK OF TC 03P SHIFTS TO WEST-NORTHWEST FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF CAIRNS AROUND TAU 108, BEFORE CONTINUING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE SMOTHERING EFFECT OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, WILL COMBINE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BOTTOM OUT AT 60 KNOTS AT TAU 72, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD WEAKEN A BIT FURTHER PRIOR TO THAT POINT. BY TAU 72, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT MOISTENS SIGNIFICANTLY. COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL AT THIS POINT BE MOVING OVER THE SHALLOW, VERY WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT BARRIER REEF, A FAIR AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UP THROUGH LANDFALL. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 96, HOWEVER THE ACTUAL PEAK INTENSITY COULD BE HIGHER AND OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING INLAND DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE MODEL PACKAGE SHOWS MINIMAL SPREAD, WHICH REACHES JUST 85NM AT TAU 72, SUPPORTING A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72, WITH THE UKMET, EGRR AND GALWEM TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN CAPE YORK PENINSULA, WHILE THE NAVGEM SHOWING THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CAIRNS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE GFS, GEFS, ECMWF AND ECENS, LIES CLOSELY PACKED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE 250NM SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AT TAU 120 AND THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS OF APPROXIMATELY 400NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO OF WEAKENING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PACKAGE SHOWS A BOTTOM BETWEEN 40-60 KNOTS WITH A SECOND PEAK 50-70 KNOTS. THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS INTENSITY TREND GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE A LOW-PROBABILITY (10-20 PERCENT) OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, THUS THE MENTION OF A POSSIBLE PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING BETWEEN THE TAU 96 AND TAU 120 FORECAST POINTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-09 06:00:05 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0123 UTC 09/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 15.4S Longitude: 156.0E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: southwest (215 deg) Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots (175 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots (250 km/h) Central Pressure: 950 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 230 nm (425 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 09/0600: 15.8S 155.7E: 035 (065): 085 (155): 960 +12: 09/1200: 15.9S 155.3E: 045 (085): 075 (140): 969 +18: 09/1800: 16.1S 154.8E: 055 (100): 070 (130): 974 +24: 10/0000: 16.4S 154.2E: 060 (115): 065 (120): 978 +36: 10/1200: 16.8S 152.6E: 075 (135): 060 (110): 983 +48: 11/0000: 17.1S 151.1E: 090 (165): 055 (100): 986 +60: 11/1200: 16.9S 149.9E: 095 (180): 055 (100): 986 +72: 12/0000: 16.5S 148.8E: 110 (200): 055 (100): 986 +96: 13/0000: 16.2S 146.5E: 145 (265): 065 (120): 979 +120: 14/0000: 16.1S 144.1E: 200 (365): 045 (085): 992 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) cloud structure supports initial weakening with the loss of an eye pattern. Recent Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) observation suggests Jasper remains a Category 4, however. Position based on latest VIS imagery, ASCAT scatterometry from 2226 UTC and Sentinel SAR imagery from 1919 UTC. Intensity: 95kn based on recent SAR imagery. Dvorak: Vis curved band pattern (3-hr average) gives DT = 4.0, a 24 h W+ trend, yields a MET=4.5, adjusted to 4.0. Final T = 4.0 and CI = 5.0. CIMSS ADT = 5.0 and NESDIS ADT = 4.7. Current objective aids: SATCON 95 kn, ADT 92 kn, AiDT 88 kn, DPRINT 75 kn, DMINT 98kn (all 1-minute wind speeds). Wind structure: gales extend further in southern quadrants assisted by environmental SE'ly trade flow. Radius of maximum winds is 12nm based on recent SAR imagery. Weakening is occurring under increasing NW wind shear (25kn from CIMSS). Weakening should continue in the next 72 hours aided by drier air being entrained into the circulation. Otherwise SSTs remain warm at approximately 28C but upper level outflow is now restricted to the southern quadrants only. Jasper continues to be influenced by an equatorial Rossby wave that is forecast to maintain its strength as it tracks westward. Jasper has been tracking slowly to the southwest influenced by a weak mid-level ridge to the southeast and beta effect contribution. By Sunday, a stronger steering ridge to the south is expected to take Jasper on a westward track towards the far north Queensland coast. There is now stronger agreement amongst the range of model guidance leading to increased confidence in this westward track scenario towards the coast. The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast between Cape Melville (north of Cooktown) and Townsville, on about Wednesday. By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast to ease with the potential for a period of intensification ahead of landfall, and a severe tropical cyclone is forecast before crossing. In the much longer term, some model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria and redevelops next Friday and Saturday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0730 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 am December 9 4 15.4S 156.0E 35 +6hr 4 pm December 9 3 15.8S 155.7E 65 +12hr 10 pm December 9 3 15.9S 155.3E 85 +18hr 4 am December 10 3 16.1S 154.8E 100 +24hr 10 am December 10 3 16.4S 154.2E 115 +36hr 10 pm December 10 2 16.8S 152.6E 135 +48hr 10 am December 11 2 17.1S 151.1E 165 +60hr 10 pm December 11 2 16.9S 149.9E 180 +72hr 10 am December 12 2 16.5S 148.8E 200 最后于 2023-12-09 09:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 15.4S 155.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 155.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 15.8S 155.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.3S 153.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.7S 152.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.8S 150.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.2S 148.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.8S 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.6S 143.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 155.6E. 09DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.4S 155.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 583 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 03P (JASPER) HAD UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION. THE DEEP DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME EVEN MORE DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OBSCURED, BUT A 082310Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE REVEALS THAT THE LLCC REMAINS WELL-DEFINED BUT DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A ROUGH AVERAGE OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIX ESTIMATES AND EXTRAPOLATION OF AN EARLIER 081913Z SENTINEL-1A SAR PASS WHICH REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 96-103 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY BEING IMPACTED HARSHLY BY THE SUSTAINED 25-30 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND AN INFLUX OF VERY DRY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR MOVING IN OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. WHILE SSTS REMAIN WARM AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG TO THE EAST AND POLEWARD, THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE OVERWHELMING THE POSITIVE EFFECTS, GENERATING A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM HAS NOW STARTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH TAKING OVER THE DOMINANT STEERING ROLE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER AND SAR DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS ABRF: T5.5 - 102 KTS CIMSS ADT: 92 KTS AT 082330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: NOW THAT THE STR TO THE SOUTH HAS ASSUMED THE DOMINANT STEERING ROLE, TC 03P IS FORECAST TO TRACE A GRACEFUL WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST ARC OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE OUTERMOST LINE OF REEF STATIONS, PASSING BETWEEN WILLIS ISLAND AND LIHOU REEF AROUND TAU 48. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, WHICH WILL PUSH TC 03P ONTO A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, BEFORE FLATTENING OUT ONCE MORE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, NORTH OF CAIRNS, JUST AFTER TAU 96. THE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY WEAKENING FAIRLY QUICKLY, AND THE PACE OF WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES PERSIST AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENGULF AND SMOTHER THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AT 55 KNOTS AT TAU 72, THOUGH A SLIGHTLY LOWER INTENSITY AT THE BOTTOM IS POSSIBLE. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW A SHARP DECREASE IN SHEAR JUST AFTER TAU 72, ACCOMPANIED BY A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 03P TO REINTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM, SHALLOW WATERS OF THE GREAT BARRIER REEF. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS AT TAU 96, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK COULD OCCUR IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO OR COINCIDENT WITH LANDFALL. ONCE ASHORE, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OVER LAND. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE ENVELOPE SHRINKING SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS NOW 125NM AT TAU 72 AND 210NM AT TAU 120, IF THE NAVGEM IS DISCOUNTED AS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER FAR TO THE SOUTH. IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT SHIFT IN THE TRACK HOWEVER, THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 72, AND MEDIUM THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72 FOLLOWED BY A REINTENSIFICATION PERIOD PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM OF THE INTENSITY RANGES BETWEEN 45-60 KNOTS, WHILE THE SECOND PEAK RANGES FROM 55-70 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN TO TAU 72, THEN PUSHES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MEAN AT TAU 96, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-09 12:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：9日08时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬15.4度、东经156.0度
强度等级：四级强热带气旋
最大风力：14级（46米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）
中心气压：955百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州麦凯东北方向约960公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”由17级以上减弱到14级
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月09日08时00分）
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IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0720 UTC 09/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 15.6S Longitude: 155.3E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (255 deg) Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h) Central Pressure: 974 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/14HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 230 nm (425 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 09/1200: 15.8S 155.0E: 040 (080): 065 (120): 974 +12: 09/1800: 16.2S 154.5E: 050 (095): 060 (110): 978 +18: 10/0000: 16.5S 154.0E: 055 (105): 060 (110): 978 +24: 10/0600: 16.8S 153.3E: 060 (115): 055 (100): 982 +36: 10/1800: 17.2S 151.6E: 075 (135): 050 (095): 986 +48: 11/0600: 17.2S 150.1E: 085 (155): 050 (095): 985 +60: 11/1800: 16.7S 149.1E: 090 (170): 050 (095): 985 +72: 12/0600: 16.4S 148.0E: 105 (195): 055 (100): 982 +96: 13/0600: 16.2S 145.5E: 145 (270): 065 (120): 974 +120: 14/0600: 16.1S 143.1E: 185 (345): 040 (075): 992 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has weakened rapidly in the last 6 hours due to dry air entrainment and strong vertical wind shear. Position based on latest VIS imagery and AMSR2 microwave imagery at 0347 UTC. Intensity: 65kn based on Dvorak analysis and supported by recent AMSR2 data. Dvorak: VIS curved band pattern yields DT 3.0. 24-hour W+ trend yields a MET=4.5, adjusted to 4.0. Final T constrained to 4.0 with CI = 4.5. CIMSS ADT = 4.2 and NESDIS ADT = 4.4. Current objective aids: SATCON 69 kn, ADT 82 kn, AiDT 71 kn, DPRINT 64 kn (all 1-minute wind speeds). Wind structure: gales extend further in southern quadrants assisted by environmental SE'ly trade flow. Radius of maximum winds is 20nm based on AMSR2 imagery. Weakening is occurring under strong NW wind shear (20kn from CIMSS). Weakening should continue in the next 48 hours aided by drier air being entrained into the circulation. Otherwise SSTs remain warm at approximately 28C but upper level outflow is now restricted to the southern quadrants only. Jasper continues to be influenced by an equatorial Rossby wave that is forecast to maintain its strength as it tracks westward. Jasper has been tracking slowly to the south southwest influenced by a weak mid-level ridge to the east and beta effect contribution. By Sunday, a stronger steering ridge to the south is expected to take Jasper on a westward track towards the coast together. There is now stronger agreement amongst the range of model guidance leading to increased confidence in this westward track scenario towards the coast. The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast between Cape Melville (north of Cooktown) and Lucinda, most likely on Wednesday. By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast to ease with the potential for a period of intensification ahead of landfall, and a severe impact remains a possibility at this stage. In the longer term, some model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/1330 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 pm December 9 3 15.6S 155.3E 55 +6hr 10 pm December 9 3 15.8S 155.0E 80 +12hr 4 am December 10 2 16.2S 154.5E 95 +18hr 10 am December 10 2 16.5S 154.0E 105 +24hr 4 pm December 10 2 16.8S 153.3E 115 +36hr 4 am December 11 2 17.2S 151.6E 135 +48hr 4 pm December 11 2 17.2S 150.1E 155 +60hr 4 am December 12 2 16.7S 149.1E 170 +72hr 4 pm December 12 2 16.4S 148.0E 195 最后于 2023-12-09 15:25:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 155.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 155.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.6S 154.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.3S 153.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.5S 151.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.5S 150.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 16.8S 147.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.6S 144.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 16.7S 142.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 155.3E. 09DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 561 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 155.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 561 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEMS VORTEX HAS BECOME TILTED POLEWARD WITH HEIGHT, MOSTLY DUE TO THE MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 090346Z AMSR2 SATELLITE WIND SPEED IMAGE SHOWS THE VWS TO BE GREATLY AFFECTING WIND FIELD SYMMETRY AS WELL, DISPLACING NEARLY ALL WIND SPEED VALUES GREATER THAN 50KTS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO EMERGE FROM THE SHEARED MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE OFFSET AND TILT OF THE VORTEX, DEEP FLARING CONVECTION PERSISTS, WITH OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS ABRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 69 KTS AT 090600Z CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 090600Z CIMSS AIDT: 71 KTS AT 090600Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) HAS BEGUN EXPERIENCING SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TRANSPIRING A WEAKENING TREND TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 24 AND ON A WESTWARD TRACK, VWS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE TO LOW (5-10 KTS) VALUES, ALLOWING THE TC A SUSTAINMENT WINDOW WITH DRY MID-LEVELS STILL A FACTOR. WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHALLOW REEFS ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK WILL ASSIST THE TC BY SUPPLYING NECESSARY HEAT TO THE SYSTEM. NEAR TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL TAU 72. MULTIPLE INDICATORS SHOW TC 03P TO LIKELY UNDERGO A REMOISTENING OF THE CORE AND SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 66 AND LANDFALL (NEAR TAU 84), POTENTIALLY PEAKING AT 60-65KTS. A RAPID DECAY IS ANTICIPATED FROM TAU 84 TO TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. OF NOTE, MULTIPLE GLOBAL MODELS TRANSIT THE VORTEX ACROSS THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA THROUGH TAU 120 AND INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST WINDOW, WHERE REINTENSIFICATION TO TC STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. BY TAU 72, A TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 68NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 69NM IS PRESENT AMONG THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW JUST A 10 KTS SPREAD OVER THE SAME INTERVAL. THUS, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY IS HIGH THROUGH TAU 72. THEREAFTER, CONSENSUS MEMBERS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS JUST A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 131NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 112NM. HENCEFORTH, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120 IS MEDIUM FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-09 16:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：