最新回复 (139)
-
全球热带气旋监测公报
“贾斯珀”向西南方向移动
时 间：9日14时（北京时）
海 域：澳大利亚附近海域
命 名：“贾斯珀”，JASPER
中心位置：南纬15.7度、东经155.5度
强度等级：三级强热带气旋
最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）
中心气压：974百帕
参考位置：澳大利亚昆士兰州麦凯东北方向约900公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“贾斯珀”由17级减弱到12级
预报结论：“贾斯珀”将以每小时10-15公里左右的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2023年12月09日14时00分）
-
-
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1355 UTC 09/12/2023 Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 16.0S Longitude: 154.7E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: southwest (235 deg) Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h) Central Pressure: 980 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 180 nm (335 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/W1.5/24HRS SST:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 09/1800: 16.3S 154.1E: 045 (080): 065 (120): 976 +12: 10/0000: 16.6S 153.5E: 050 (095): 060 (110): 980 +18: 10/0600: 16.8S 152.8E: 060 (110): 055 (100): 983 +24: 10/1200: 17.1S 152.0E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 987 +36: 11/0000: 17.5S 150.3E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 987 +48: 11/1200: 17.2S 149.0E: 065 (125): 050 (095): 987 +60: 12/0000: 16.8S 147.9E: 075 (140): 055 (100): 983 +72: 12/1200: 16.5S 146.7E: 090 (165): 060 (110): 980 +96: 13/1200: 16.6S 143.8E: 135 (250): 040 (075): 993 +120: 14/1200: 16.3S 141.2E: 180 (335): 030 (055): 999 REMARKS: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has maintained its intensity as the environment has become more favourable this evening, in a diurnally favourable period. The position was based on latest EIR imagery, with SSMIS Microwave imagery at 07:48 UTC, hscat 08:24 UTC, and more recently ascat providing good guidance. Intensity: 65kn based on Dvorak analysis, which is supported by objective guidance. Dvorak: Embedded centre yields DT 4.5, which is consistent with the MET/PT of 4.5. FT/CI= 4.5. CIMSS ADT = 4.2 and NESDIS ADT = 3.7. Current objective aids: SATCON 69 kn, ADT 67 kn, AiDT 71 kn, DPRINT 61 kn (all 1-minute wind speeds). Wind structure: gales extend further in southern quadrants assisted by environmental SE'ly trade flow. RMW= 20nm based on ssmis microwave imagery. Weakening has slowed under moderate NW wind shear 15kn from CIMSS). Weakening should continue in the next 48 hours aided by drier air being entrained into the circulation. Otherwise SSTs remain warm at approximately 28C but upper level outflow is now restricted to the southern quadrants only. Jasper continues to be influenced by an equatorial Rossby wave that is forecast to maintain its strength as it tracks westward. Jasper has started to move more quickly to the west southwest over the last 6 hours as a stronger ridge builds to the south and will continue to track west towards the north Queensland coast over the coming days. There is greater consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cape Melville (north of Cooktown) and Lucinda or Cardwell, most likely on Wednesday. By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast to ease with the potential for a period of intensification ahead of landfall. A severe impact remains a possibility at landfall, however most recent guidance has a earlier crossing on Wednesday morning and this may limit redevelopment into a severe tropical cyclone. In the longer term, some model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/1930 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm December 9 3 16.0S 154.7E 55 +6hr 4 am December 10 3 16.3S 154.1E 80 +12hr 10 am December 10 2 16.6S 153.5E 95 +18hr 4 pm December 10 2 16.8S 152.8E 110 +24hr 10 pm December 10 2 17.1S 152.0E 120 +36hr 10 am December 11 2 17.5S 150.3E 120 +48hr 10 pm December 11 2 17.2S 149.0E 125 +60hr 10 am December 12 2 16.8S 147.9E 140 +72hr 10 pm December 12 2 16.5S 146.7E 165 最后于 2023-12-09 22:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 155.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 155.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.4S 154.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.9S 152.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.0S 151.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.8S 149.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 16.3S 147.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.1S 144.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.2S 141.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 154.9E. 09DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.8S 155.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 545 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) CONTINUING TO FIGHT AGAINST PROMINENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEMS MID TO UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX HAS MANAGED TO WOBBLE BACK EQUATORWARD INTO BETTER VERTICAL ALIGNMENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), DESPITE THE PERSISTING MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KTS) VWS. A 091058Z ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE CAPTURED AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD EXPANDING MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN NORTH, ALTHOUGH THE SYMMETRY HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING (WRN 18). DEEP CONVECTION, THOUGH STILL PRESENT UP TO 116NM OUTWARD FROM THE LLCC IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, HAS WEAKENED AND RISING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE OBSERVED ON EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 091058Z ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS ABRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 71 KTS AT 091250Z CIMSS ADT: 69 KTS AT 091130Z CIMSS AIDT: 71 KTS AT 091250Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) CONTINUES EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NUMERICAL MODEL INDICATED MODERATE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TRANSPIRING A WEAKENING TREND TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 24 AND ON A WESTWARD TRACK, VWS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE TO LOW (5-10 KTS) VALUES, ALLOWING THE TC A SUSTAINMENT WINDOW WITH DRY MID-LEVELS STILL A FACTOR. WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHALLOW REEFS ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK WILL ASSIST THE TC BY SUPPLYING NECESSARY HEAT TO THE SYSTEM. NEAR TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL TAU 72. MULTIPLE INDICATORS IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW TC 03P TO LIKELY UNDERGO A REMOISTENING OF THE CORE AND SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 60 AND LANDFALL (NEAR TAU 84), POTENTIALLY PEAKING AT 60-65KTS. A RAPID DECAY IS ANTICIPATED FROM TAU 84 TO TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA. OF NOTE, MULTIPLE GLOBAL MODELS TRANSIT THE VORTEX ACROSS THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA THROUGH TAU 120 AND INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST WINDOW, WHERE REINTENSIFICATION TO TC STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. BY TAU 72, A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 95NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 94NM IS PRESENT AMONG THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WHICH HAS GROWN IN UNCERTAINTY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A 15 KTS SPREAD BY TAU 72. THEREAFTER, CONSENSUS MEMBERS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS A BIT FURTHER TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 301NM AND ALONG- TRACK SPREAD OF 214NM. HENCEFORTH, THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 120 IS MEDIUM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-10 04:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
-
-
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1940 UTC 09/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 16.0S Longitude: 154.8E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (255 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h) Central Pressure: 979 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm (55 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 10/0000: 16.3S 154.2E: 045 (080): 060 (110): 980 +12: 10/0600: 16.5S 153.5E: 055 (100): 055 (100): 983 +18: 10/1200: 16.8S 152.7E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 987 +24: 10/1800: 17.0S 151.8E: 060 (115): 050 (095): 987 +36: 11/0600: 17.1S 150.3E: 060 (105): 050 (095): 987 +48: 11/1800: 16.7S 149.1E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 986 +60: 12/0600: 16.3S 148.0E: 085 (155): 060 (110): 979 +72: 12/1800: 16.1S 146.7E: 105 (195): 065 (120): 976 +96: 13/1800: 16.4S 143.8E: 150 (275): 035 (065): 995 +120: 14/1800: 15.8S 141.4E: 190 (350): 030 (055): 999 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) is gradually weakening under ongoing northwesterly wind shear. Deep convection is confined to southern quadrants. Position was based on latest EIR and proxy Vis imagery, supported by AMSR2 at 1438UTC and ASCAT-B at 1140UTC. Intensity: 60kn based AMSR2/ASCAT wind analysis and average objective aids (lower) with the 18UTC Dvorak analysis (higher). Dvorak: Embedded centre (LG) yields DT 4.5, higher than the MET of 4.0. FT=4.0 but CI= 4.5 held higher because of 12UTC FT constraint. CIMSS ADT =3.8. Current objective aids: SATCON 61 kn, ADT 61 kn, AiDT 52 kn, DMINT 62kn (1440UTC), DPRINT 52 kn (all 1-minute wind speeds). Wind structure: AMSR2 at 1437UTC, ASCAT-B 1140UTC and ASCATC 1054UTC show gales extend further in southern quadrants assisted by environmental SE'ly trade flow. RMW= 30nm based on ASCAT and AMSR2 microwave imagery. Weakening has slowed under moderate to strong NW wind shear (22kn from CIMSS). Some further weakening should continue in the next 36-48 hours aided by drier air being entrained into the circulation. Otherwise SSTs remain warm at approximately 28C but upper level outflow is restricted to the southern quadrants only. Jasper is moving to the west southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south towards the north Queensland coast over the coming days. There is greater consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and Cardwell, most likely on Wednesday. By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast to ease with the potential for a period of intensification ahead of landfall. A severe impact remains a possibility at landfall, depending on the time available prior to landfall. In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is possible next weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/0130 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am December 10 2 16.0S 154.8E 55 +6hr 10 am December 10 2 16.3S 154.2E 80 +12hr 4 pm December 10 2 16.5S 153.5E 100 +18hr 10 pm December 10 2 16.8S 152.7E 110 +24hr 4 am December 11 2 17.0S 151.8E 115 +36hr 4 pm December 11 2 17.1S 150.3E 105 +48hr 4 am December 12 2 16.7S 149.1E 120 +60hr 4 pm December 12 2 16.3S 148.0E 155 +72hr 4 am December 13 3 16.1S 146.7E 195 -
WTPS31 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 154.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 154.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.4S 153.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.0S 152.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.0S 150.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.5S 149.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 16.1S 146.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.0S 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.7S 141.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 154.6E. 09DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 527 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.9S 154.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 527 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) CONTINUES TO STEADILY ERODE AND WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SCATTERED AROUND AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A FORTUITOUS 091750Z GMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LLCC REMAINS WELL-DEFINED, WITH LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A RELATIVELY LARGE LOW EMISSIVITY REGION, OUTLINING THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. WITH THE RECEIPT OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS OUTLINED BELOW. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NORTHEAST OF SYDNEY. THE SHEAR HAS DROPPED A NOTCH FROM THE PEAK SEEN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL REMAINS AT MODERATE LEVELS AND CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THE SYSTEMS EROSION, THOUGH THE PACE OF THE WEAKENING HAS EASED SLIGHTLY. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ARE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. COMBINED, THE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE STEADY WEAKENING BEING OBSERVED. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYDNEY. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS ABRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 60 KTS AT 091509Z CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 091730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03P (JASPER) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH NORTHWARD AND REPOSITION TO A POINT TO THE NORTHWEST OF BRISBANE, PUSHING TC 03P ONTO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL ABOUT TAU 72. BY TAU 72, THE STR TO THE SOUTH BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND THE TRACK OF TC 03P WILL FLATTEN OUT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 84 ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, NORTH OF CAIRNS, AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE DECREASING SHARPLY AFTER TAU 36. WHILE THIS WOULD ARGUE IN FAVOR OF REINTENSIFICATION, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT CONVERGENT, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, WILL OFFSET THE DECREASED SHEAR AND LEAD TO A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHIFTS AGAIN AFTER TAU 48 AND BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT, WITH THE GFS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72, PROVIDING THE IMPETUS FOR A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE AFTER TAU 48, CONTINUING THROUGH LANDFALL. THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PRIOR TO LANDFALL WILL SERVE TO CAP THE PEAK INTENSITY SOMEWHAT, BUT A PEAK BETWEEN 60-65 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, OCCURRING BETWEEN THE FORECAST POINTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING CRITERIA ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120 AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY MODERATE SPREAD BECOMING EVIDENT AFTER LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 110NM AT TAU 72, BETWEEN GFS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE AND ECMWF ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD REMAINS STEADY THROUGH TAU 120 BUT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES SHARPLY TO 310NM AS THE ECMWF AND GALWEM MODELS RACE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA, WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE SYSTEM BACK, KEEPING IT EAST OF THE GREAT DIVIDING RANGE. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO TAU 72, DECREASING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BOTH THE OVERALL SHAPE OF THE TREND LINE AND THE INTENSITY VALUES. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-10 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0132 UTC 10/12/2023 Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper Identifier: 02U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 16.3S Longitude: 154.2E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: southwest (235 deg) Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h) Central Pressure: 981 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm (55 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 10/0600: 16.6S 153.6E: 045 (080): 050 (095): 985 +12: 10/1200: 16.9S 152.7E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 986 +18: 10/1800: 17.2S 151.8E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 986 +24: 11/0000: 17.3S 151.0E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 985 +36: 11/1200: 17.0S 149.5E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 985 +48: 12/0000: 16.6S 148.3E: 060 (110): 055 (100): 983 +60: 12/1200: 16.2S 147.0E: 070 (130): 060 (110): 978 +72: 13/0000: 16.2S 145.6E: 100 (180): 065 (120): 975 +96: 14/0000: 16.6S 142.8E: 140 (255): 030 (055): 997 +120: 15/0000: 15.7S 140.3E: 190 (350): 030 (055): 997 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has weakened to a category 2 cyclone due to increased northwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment. Deep convection has been persistent in the southern quadrants. Position was based on animated Vis and microwave data. Intensity: 55kn based on Dvorak analysis, yielding a FT=3.5 and holding CI=4.0. CIMSS ADT =3.7 and NESDIS ADT=3.5. Current objective aids: SATCON 56 kn, ADT 59 kn, AiDT 50 kn, DMINT 62kn (1754UTC), DPRINT 48 kn (all 1-minute wind speeds). Jasper continues to show signs of weaken trend under moderate to strong NW wind shear (22kn from CIMSS). Some further weakening should continue in the next 48 hours aided by drier air being entrained into the circulation. Otherwise SSTs remain warm at approximately 28C but upper level outflow is restricted to the southern quadrants only. Jasper is moving to the west southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south towards the north Queensland coast over the coming days. There is greater consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and Cardwell, most likely on Wednesday. By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast to ease with the potential for a period of intensification ahead of landfall. A severe impact remains a possibility at landfall, depending on the time available prior to landfall. In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is possible next weekend. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/0730 UTC.
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 am December 10 2 16.3S 154.2E 55 +6hr 4 pm December 10 2 16.6S 153.6E 80 +12hr 10 pm December 10 2 16.9S 152.7E 100 +18hr 4 am December 11 2 17.2S 151.8E 110 +24hr 10 am December 11 2 17.3S 151.0E 120 +36hr 10 pm December 11 2 17.0S 149.5E 110 +48hr 10 am December 12 2 16.6S 148.3E 110 +60hr 10 pm December 12 2 16.2S 147.0E 130 +72hr 10 am December 13 3 16.2S 145.6E 180 最后于 2023-12-10 09:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS31 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 154.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 154.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.7S 152.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.1S 151.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.9S 149.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.6S 148.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 16.2S 146.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.2S 143.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.5S 140.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 153.9E. 10DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.1S 154.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 486 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03P (JASPER) CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, ALTHOUGH THE PACE OF WEAKENING HAS SLOWED AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS WANED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION, CONCENTRATED IN VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS OBSCURING THE ACTUAL LLCC POSITION. HOWEVER, THE OUTER LOW-LEVEL BANDS ARE EVIDENT, PARTICULARLY IN THE DRY, CLEAR AIR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE, ALLOWING FOR THE USE OF SPIRAL BAND ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES TO DETERMINE THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE IS PROVIDED BY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A LOW EMISSIVITY REGION EVIDENT IN A 092248Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO SHOWED THAT THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ORIENTED IN A LINEAR FASHION FROM THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC AND EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, IN LIGHT OF THE LOWER ADT, AIDT AND SATCON ESTIMATES. WHILE THE WIND RADII ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON PERSISTENCE, AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTOR, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LIHOU REEF AT 0100Z SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS (33 KNOTS 10-MIN) EXTENDING OUT AT LAST AS FAR AS THE STATION (APPROXIMATELY 170NM). THE SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP A KNOT OR TWO OF SPEED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH HAS STRENGTHENED. THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE OVERALL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS), PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW CIRRUS SHIELD TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST, SUGGESTING THE SHEAR MAY BE A BIT LOWER, AT LEAST AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS. DRY AIR ABOVE 400MB REMAINS THE PRIMARY HINDRANCE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CORE AS WELL, INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE SECTORS. WARM SSTS AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE POSITIVE, ARE NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR AND DRY AIR. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NORTHEAST OF SYDNEY. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS APRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 56 KTS AT 100100Z CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 092330Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TC 03P, AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS CLOSE TO LIHOU REEF WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 BEFORE HEADING FOR CLOSE RENDEZVOUS WITH THE OTHER NORTHERN ISLANDS IN THE CORAL SEA. FROM TAU 24 TO ABOUT TAU 72, THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO REPOSITION TO A NEW POSITION NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE. THIS MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN A SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF TC 03P, FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THEN FLATTENING OUT AGAIN ON A DUE WEST TRACK BY TAU 72. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED JUST AFTER TAU 72, ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA, NORTH OF CAIRNS. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION CAPE YORK PENINSULA, THEN EMERGE BACK OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA BY TAU 120. WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, THE ANTICIPATED REDUCTION IN SHEAR VALUES SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER RATE OF WEAKENING THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE DRY AIR THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENGULF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36, WHICH WHEN ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED SHEAR AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY DEVELOPMENT OF A POINT SOURCE ALOFT, WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT BURST OF INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 48 AND LANDFALL. INTENSITY AT LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 55-60 KNOTS, LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST AFTER THE TAU 72 FORECAST POINT. AFTER MOVING INLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING AS IT EMERGES BACK OVER GULF OF CARPENTARIA. WHILE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMELINE, IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN REINTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM SHORE. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, NOW ABOUT 150NM BY TAU 120. CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD CONTINUES TO INCREASE, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN THE ECWMF AND UKMET MODELS WHICH RACE THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND FAR OUT IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE REMNANT VORTEX EAST OF THE GREAT DIVIDING RANGE, NEVER REACH THE GULF, BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, NORTH OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE BOTTOM INTENSITY WILL BE IN THE 40-45 KNOT RANGE, WITH THE FOLLOWING REINTENSIFICATION PEAK BETWEEN 45-60 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 36 THEN SHIFTS ABOUT 10 KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE MEAN, CONSISTENT WITH THE COAMPS-TC (GFS AND NAVGEM VERSIONS) THEREAFTER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2023-12-10 10:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：