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ABPW10 PGTW 130600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZDEC2023// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZDEC2023// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.7N 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 623 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 122306Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT SPARSE CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122325Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS A PATCH OF 20-25KT WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BROAD LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEAL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SST, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (20KT) VWS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL CONSOLIDATE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 13DEC23 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN
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ABPW10 PGTW 140200 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/140200Z-140600ZDEC2023// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZDEC2023// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 145.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 144.2E, APPROXIMATELY 617 NM EAST- SOUTHEASTOF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS, AND LOW (10-15 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS, SPECIFICALLY GFS AND NAVGEM, ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS INCLUDING ECENS AND GEFS ALSO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINDANAO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 13DEC23 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 131500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.// NNNN
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熱帯低気圧 a 2023年12月16日10時15分発表 16日09時の実況 種別 熱帯低気圧 大きさ - 強さ - 存在地域 カロリン諸島 中心位置 北緯7度00分 (7.0度) 東経135度05分 (135.1度) 進行方向、速さ 西北西 ゆっくり 中心気圧 1006 hPa 最大風速 15 m/s (30 kt) 最大瞬間風速 23 m/s (45 kt) 17日09時の予報 種別 台風 強さ - 存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東 予報円の中心 北緯7度30分 (7.5度) 東経129度20分 (129.3度) 進行方向、速さ 西 25 km/h (14 kt) 中心気圧 1002 hPa 中心付近の最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt) 最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt) 予報円の半径 130 km (70 NM) 18日09時の予報 種別 台風 強さ - 存在地域 フィリピン 予報円の中心 北緯8度35分 (8.6度) 東経125度10分 (125.2度) 進行方向、速さ 西北西 20 km/h (11 kt) 中心気圧 1002 hPa 最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt) 最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt) 予報円の半径 200 km (110 NM) 19日09時の予報 種別 熱帯低気圧 強さ - 存在地域 スル海 予報円の中心 北緯7度40分 (7.7度) 東経118度40分 (118.7度) 進行方向、速さ 西 30 km/h (16 kt) 中心気圧 1006 hPa 予報円の半径 260 km (140 NM)
WTPQ30 RJTD 160000 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 7.0N 135.1E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS A TD IS LOCATED AT 7.0N, 135.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON EARLY STAGE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC. 3.TRACK FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM. =
最后于 2023-12-16 10:15:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// WTPN21 PGTW 160000 RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3N 135.1E TO 7.6N 129.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 45 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 135.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LOCATED 40NM SOUTHEAST OF NGERULMUD, PHILLIPINES, AND 510NM EAST OF MANAY, PHILLIPINES, AND IS MOVING WNW AT 14 KTS. WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICRICLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE. EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 170000Z. //
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT COR// WTPN21 PGTW 160000 RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3N 135.1E TO 7.6N 129.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 45 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 135.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LOCATED 40NM SOUTHEAST OF NGERULMUD, PALAU, AND 570NM EAST OF DAVEO, PHILLIPINES, AND IS MOVING WNW AT 14 KTS. WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICRICLE AND 400 MILES ELSEWHERE. EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 800 MILES ELSEWHERE WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 170000Z. //
JTWC is conducting a scheduled power outage and has transferred services to FWC-N and FWC-SD, estimated restoral 172200ZDEC23. For TC Support call FWC-N at (COM) 757-444-7583/DSN: 312-564-7583. For Tsunami Support call FWC- SD at (COM) 619-767-1271/DSN: 735-0382. For the JTWC CDO call (COM) 808-285-8800.
最后于 2023-12-16 20:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：