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  3. 菲律宾以东2317号热带风暴“杰拉华”(18W.Jelawat)

菲律宾以东2317号热带风暴“杰拉华”(18W.Jelawat) 西北太平洋

DG Lupit 2023-12-11 11:29:45 2120

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  • ygsj24 W 2023-12-16 15:00:11
    0 引用 11楼 
    熱帯低気圧 a
2023年12月16日16時00分発表

16日15時の実況
種別	熱帯低気圧
大きさ	-
強さ	-
存在地域	カロリン諸島
中心位置	北緯7度00分 (7.0度)
東経133度20分 (133.3度)
進行方向、速さ	西 20 km/h (10 kt)
中心気圧	1004 hPa
最大風速	15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速	23 m/s (45 kt)

17日15時の予報
種別	台風
強さ	-
存在地域	ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心	北緯7度40分 (7.7度)
東経128度20分 (128.3度)
進行方向、速さ	西 25 km/h (13 kt)
中心気圧	1000 hPa
中心付近の最大風速	18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速	25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径	130 km (70 NM)

18日15時の予報
種別	台風
強さ	-
存在地域	フィリピン
予報円の中心	北緯9度05分 (9.1度)
東経122度55分 (122.9度)
進行方向、速さ	西北西 25 km/h (14 kt)
中心気圧	1002 hPa
最大風速	18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速	25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径	200 km (110 NM)

19日15時の予報
種別	熱帯低気圧
強さ	-
存在地域	南シナ海
予報円の中心	北緯9度30分 (9.5度)
東経116度30分 (116.5度)
進行方向、速さ	西 30 km/h (16 kt)
中心気圧	1004 hPa
予報円の半径	260 km (140 NM)
    WTPQ30 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 7.0N 133.3E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 7.0N, 133.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30KNOTS. THE
  SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
  THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
  SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
  THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
  PHILIPPINES BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
  WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
  OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
  WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
  UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
  ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=
  • 月明星稀 LG 2023-12-16 18:10:40
    0 引用 12楼

    JMA06z维持TD

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
    AT 07.0N 133.3E CAROLINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.

    上传的附件：
  • 月明星稀 LG 2023-12-16 19:08:50
    0 引用 13楼

    JMA予想图显示未来24h升TS，并逐渐向西发展，并逐渐向菲律宾靠近

    上传的附件：
  • 月明星稀 LG 2023-12-16 19:32:39
    0 引用 14楼

    目前各模式预报其将在西进南海后转向西南，强度变化不大

    上传的附件：
  • ygsj24 W 2023-12-16 21:01:25
    0 引用 15楼 
    熱帯低気圧 a
2023年12月16日22時05分発表

16日21時の実況
種別	熱帯低気圧
大きさ	-
強さ	-
存在地域	ミンダナオ島の東
中心位置	北緯7度25分 (7.4度)
東経131度30分 (131.5度)
進行方向、速さ	西 30 km/h (15 kt)
中心気圧	1006 hPa
最大風速	15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速	23 m/s (45 kt)

17日09時の予報
種別	台風
強さ	-
存在地域	ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心	北緯7度35分 (7.6度)
東経129度30分 (129.5度)
進行方向、速さ	西 20 km/h (10 kt)
中心気圧	1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速	18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速	25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径	85 km (47 NM)

17日21時の予報
種別	台風
強さ	-
存在地域	ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心	北緯7度50分 (7.8度)
東経127度55分 (127.9度)
進行方向、速さ	西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧	1004 hPa
中心付近の最大風速	18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速	25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径	130 km (70 NM)

18日21時の予報
種別	台風
強さ	-
存在地域	スル海
予報円の中心	北緯8度55分 (8.9度)
東経121度55分 (121.9度)
進行方向、速さ	西 30 km/h (15 kt)
中心気圧	1006 hPa
中心付近の最大風速	18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速	25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径	240 km (130 NM)

19日21時の予報
種別	熱帯低気圧
強さ	-
存在地域	南シナ海
予報円の中心	北緯9度55分 (9.9度)
東経115度40分 (115.7度)
進行方向、速さ	西 30 km/h (15 kt)
中心気圧	1008 hPa
予報円の半径	310 km (165 NM)
    WTPQ30 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TD LOCATED AT 7.4N 131.5E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 7.4N, 131.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 1006HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30KNOTS. THE
  SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
  CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. WATER
  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
  DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
  ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES
  BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
  LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
  FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS,
  GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
  UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND
  LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
=
    最后于 2023-12-16 21:35:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：
  • 月明星稀 LG 2023-12-16 21:43:23
    0 引用 16楼

    目前辐合辐散良好，不过风切有点大

    上传的附件：
  • ygsj24 W 2023-12-17 04:05:00
    0 引用 17楼 
    熱帯低気圧 a
2023年12月17日04時05分発表

17日03時の実況
種別	熱帯低気圧
大きさ	-
強さ	-
存在地域	ミンダナオ島の東
中心位置	北緯7度35分 (7.6度)
東経130度30分 (130.5度)
進行方向、速さ	西 25 km/h (14 kt)
中心気圧	1004 hPa
最大風速	15 m/s (30 kt)
最大瞬間風速	23 m/s (45 kt)

17日15時の予報
種別	台風
強さ	-
存在地域	ミンダナオ島の東
予報円の中心	北緯7度40分 (7.7度)
東経128度40分 (128.7度)
進行方向、速さ	西 15 km/h (9 kt)
中心気圧	1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速	18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速	25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径	100 km (55 NM)

18日03時の予報
種別	台風
強さ	-
存在地域	ミンダナオ島
予報円の中心	北緯8度05分 (8.1度)
東経126度25分 (126.4度)
進行方向、速さ	西 20 km/h (12 kt)
中心気圧	1002 hPa
中心付近の最大風速	18 m/s (35 kt)
最大瞬間風速	25 m/s (50 kt)
予報円の半径	150 km (80 NM)

19日03時の予報
種別	熱帯低気圧
強さ	-
存在地域	スル海
予報円の中心	北緯9度05分 (9.1度)
東経120度20分 (120.3度)
進行方向、速さ	西 30 km/h (15 kt)
中心気圧	1006 hPa
予報円の半径	240 km (130 NM)
    WTPQ30 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TD LOCATED AT 7.6N 130.5E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  A TD IS LOCATED AT 7.6N, 130.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL
  PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30KNOTS. THE
  SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
  INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
  OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
  INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
  GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. WATER
  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES
  BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
  UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
  LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
  FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS,
  GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
  UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY
  AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
=
  • An OW 2023-12-17 07:41:53
    0 引用 18楼

    WTPH20 RPMM 161800

    SECURITE

    TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 01

    ISSUED AT 1800UTC, 16 DECEMBER 2023 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002HPA

    AT 1800UTC, PSTN 7.5N 130.6E MOV W 5KT

    MXWD 30KT NEAR CTR

    12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 170600UTC

    PSTN 7.8N 128.5E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 30KT

    24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 171800UTC

    PSTN 8.3N 126.4E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT

    36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 180600UTC

    PSTN 9.0N 122.7E, PRES 1006HPA, MWXD 25KT

    48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 181800UTC

    PSTN 9.4N 119.5E, PRES 1006HPA, MWXD 25KT

    60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 190600UTC

    PSTN 10.1N 116.4E, PRES 1006HPA, MWXD 25KT

    72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 191800UTC

    PSTN 10.4N 113.8E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT

    96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 201800UTC

    PSTN 9.5N 110.4E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 35KT

    120-HOUR FCST VLD AT 211800UTC

    PSTN 7.0N 107.3E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT

    ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 7.5N 130.6E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.

    NEXT WARNING 170000UTC

    WEATHER MANILA=

  • r DG 2023-12-17 08:31:47
    0 引用 19楼

    currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2

    dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2

    cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber:        1

    modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2

    trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened:        1.5

    patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2

    cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber:        2

    finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone:        2

    finalTNumberType:        2

  • 月明星稀 LG 2023-12-17 09:19:51
    0 引用 20楼

    JMA03z维持TD

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA

    AT 07.6N 130.5E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.

    上传的附件：
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