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WTPN31 PGTW 170300 SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W) WARNING NR 001 1. TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W) WARNING NR 001 UPGRADED FROM 91W INVEST 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 7.8N 129.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.8N 129.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 7.5N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 8.5N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 9.5N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 7.7N 128.9E. 17DEC23. TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 636 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. // BT #0001 NNNN
最后于 2023-12-17 14:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPH20 RPMM 170000
SECURITE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 02
ISSUED AT 0000UTC, 17 DECEMBER 2023 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002HPA
AT 0000UTC, PSTN 07.6N 129.9E MOV NNW SLOWLY
MXWD 30KT NEAR CTR
12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 171200UTC
PSTN 07.9N 127.7E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 30KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 180000UTC
PSTN 08.8N 124.5E, PRES 1006HPA, MWXD 25KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 181200UTC
PSTN 09.3N 121.3E, PRES 1006HPA, MWXD 25KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 190000UTC
PSTN 09.6N 118.3E, PRES 1006HPA, MWXD 25KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 191200UTC
PSTN 10.1N 115.9E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 200000UTC
PSTN 10.5N 113.3E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 210000UTC
PSTN 09.5N 109.9E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 35KT
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 07.6N 129.9E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 170600UTC
WEATHER MANILA=
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台風第17号(ジェラワット) 2023年12月17日15時45分発表 17日15時の実況 種別 台風 大きさ - 強さ - 存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東 中心位置 北緯7度30分 (7.5度) 東経129度00分 (129.0度) 進行方向、速さ 西 15 km/h (8 kt) 中心気圧 1002 hPa 中心付近の最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt) 最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt) 15m/s以上の強風域 北西側 390 km (210 NM) 南東側 220 km (120 NM) 18日03時の予報 種別 台風 強さ - 存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東 予報円の中心 北緯8度10分 (8.2度) 東経127度10分 (127.2度) 進行方向、速さ 西 20 km/h (10 kt) 中心気圧 1002 hPa 中心付近の最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt) 最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt) 予報円の半径 85 km (45 NM) 18日15時の予報 種別 熱帯低気圧 強さ - 存在地域 スル海 予報円の中心 北緯8度40分 (8.7度) 東経123度50分 (123.8度) 進行方向、速さ 西 30 km/h (17 kt) 中心気圧 1004 hPa 予報円の半径 120 km (65 NM)
WTPQ30 RJTD 170600 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2317 JELAWAT (2317) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS TS JELAWAT IS LOCATED AT 7.5N, 129.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC. 3.TRACK FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT18. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM. =
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台 风 公 报
今年第17号台风“杰拉华”生成
一、今年第17号台风“杰拉华”生成
今年第17号台风“杰拉华”（热带风暴级；英文名称：Jelawat；名字来源：马来西亚；名称意义：又名苏丹鱼，一种淡水鱼，常见于大河流里）于今天（12月17日）上午生成，上午8点钟其中心位于菲律宾马尼拉东南方向约1150公里的海面上，就是北纬7.5度、东经128.6度，中心附近最大风力有8级（18米/秒），中心最低气压为1000百帕，七级风圈半径100-150公里。
二、“杰拉华”将向西偏北方向移动
预计，“杰拉华”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度变化不大，并将于今天夜间在菲律宾棉兰老岛东部沿海登陆，登陆时中心附近最大风力8级，而后强度缓慢减弱。
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