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WTPN31 PGTW 170900 SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 7.5N 129.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.5N 129.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 8.2N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 8.7N 123.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 7.7N 128.5E. 17DEC23. TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. // BT #0001 NNNN
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WTPH20 RPMM 170600
SECURITE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 03
ISSUED AT 0600UTC, 17 DECEMBER 2023 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002HPA
AT 0600UTC, PSTN 07.6N 129.6E MOV W SLOWLY
MXWD 30KT NEAR CTR
12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 171800UTC
PSTN 08.1N 127.5E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 30KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 180600UTC
PSTN 09.0N 124.1E, PRES 1006HPA, MWXD 25KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 181800UTC
PSTN 09.4N 120.6E, PRES 1006HPA, MWXD 25KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 190600UTC
PSTN 09.8N 117.7E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 191800UTC
PSTN 10.3N 115.4E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 200600UTC
PSTN 10.6N 113.7E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 210600UTC
PSTN 10.0N 111.1E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 35KT
120-HOUR FCST VLD AT 220600UTC
PSTN 08.6N 108.6E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 07.6N 129.6E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 171200UTC
WEATHER MANILA=
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台風第17号(ジェラワット) 2023年12月17日21時45分発表 17日21時の実況 種別 台風 大きさ - 強さ - 存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東 中心位置 北緯7度40分 (7.7度) 東経128度05分 (128.1度) 進行方向、速さ 西 15 km/h (8 kt) 中心気圧 1002 hPa 中心付近の最大風速 20 m/s (40 kt) 最大瞬間風速 30 m/s (60 kt) 15m/s以上の強風域 北側 390 km (210 NM) 南側 165 km (90 NM) 18日09時の予報 種別 台風 強さ - 存在地域 ミンダナオ島 予報円の中心 北緯8度35分 (8.6度) 東経124度50分 (124.8度) 進行方向、速さ 西北西 30 km/h (17 kt) 中心気圧 1004 hPa 中心付近の最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt) 最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt) 予報円の半径 85 km (45 NM) 18日21時の予報 種別 熱帯低気圧 強さ - 存在地域 スル海 予報円の中心 北緯8度55分 (8.9度) 東経122度20分 (122.3度) 進行方向、速さ 西 20 km/h (12 kt) 中心気圧 1008 hPa 予報円の半径 120 km (65 NM)
WTPQ30 RJTD 171200 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2317 JELAWAT (2317) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS TS JELAWAT IS LOCATED AT 7.7N, 128.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC. 3.TRACK FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM. =
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