最新回复 (69)
-
-
-
-
-
WTPN31 PGTW 171500 SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W) WARNING NR 003 1. TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 7.7N 128.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 060 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.7N 128.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 8.6N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 8.9N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 7.9N 127.3E. 17DEC23. TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z. // BT #0001 NNNN
-
台風第17号(ジェラワット) 2023年12月18日03時50分発表 18日03時の実況 種別 台風 大きさ - 強さ - 存在地域 ミンダナオ島の東 中心位置 北緯7度40分 (7.7度) 東経127度05分 (127.1度) 進行方向、速さ 西 15 km/h (8 kt) 中心気圧 1002 hPa 中心付近の最大風速 18 m/s (35 kt) 最大瞬間風速 25 m/s (50 kt) 15m/s以上の強風域 北側 330 km (180 NM) 南側 110 km (60 NM) 18日15時の予報 種別 熱帯低気圧 強さ - 存在地域 フィリピン 予報円の中心 北緯8度55分 (8.9度) 東経123度40分 (123.7度) 進行方向、速さ 西北西 35 km/h (18 kt) 中心気圧 1006 hPa 予報円の半径 85 km (45 NM) 19日03時の予報 種別 熱帯低気圧 強さ - 存在地域 スル海 予報円の中心 北緯8度50分 (8.8度) 東経120度20分 (120.3度) 進行方向、速さ 西 30 km/h (17 kt) 中心気圧 1006 hPa 予報円の半径 120 km (65 NM)
WTPQ30 RJTD 171800 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2317 JELAWAT (2317) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS TS JELAWAT IS LOCATED AT 7.7N, 127.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. 3.TRACK FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES BY FT06. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM. =
-
WTPN31 PGTW 172100 SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 7.7N 127.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.7N 127.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 8.9N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 8.8N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 126.2E. 17DEC23. TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z. // BT #0001 NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 172100 SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 7.7N 127.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 030 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.7N 127.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 8.9N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 8.8N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 126.2E. 17DEC23. TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (18W), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z. // BT #0001 NNNN
最后于 2023-12-18 18:00:02 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
-
WTPH20 RPMM 171800
SECURITE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 05
ISSUED AT 1800UTC, 17 DECEMBER 2023 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (2317) 1002HPA
AT 1800UTC, PSTN 07.3N 127.4E MOV WNW 10KT
MXWD 35KT NEAR CTR
34KT 140NM NW QUAD
12-HOUR FCST VLD AT 180600UTC
PSTN 08.0N 123.6E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT
24-HOUR FCST VLD AT 181800UTC
PSTN 08.2N 120.6E, PRES 1006HPA, MWXD 25KT
36-HOUR FCST VLD AT 190600UTC
PSTN 08.7N 117.5E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT
48-HOUR FCST VLD AT 191800UTC
PSTN 09.3N 115.4E, PRES 1004HPA, MWXD 30KT
60-HOUR FCST VLD AT 200600UTC
PSTN 09.4N 113.0E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 35KT
72-HOUR FCST VLD AT 201800UTC
PSTN 09.0N 111.3E, PRES 1000HPA, MWXD 40KT
96-HOUR FCST VLD AT 211800UTC
PSTN 07.2N 108.5E, PRES 1002HPA, MWXD 35KT
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 07.3N 127.4E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
NEXT WARNING 180000UTC
WEATHER MANILA=
-
