最新回复 (69)
-
WTPN31 PGTW 180300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 005 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 18W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 7.1N 126.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 7.1N 126.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 7.4N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 8.0N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 8.4N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 7.2N 126.0E. 18DEC23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. // NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 180300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 7.1N 126.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 60 NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY, PHILIPPINES MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS ONSHORE FLOW RUNS UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MINDANAO. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON 172207Z SSMIS IMAGERY SHOWING A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL INTENSITY VALUES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND NEARBY OBSERVATIONS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 18W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE WELL-ENTRENCHED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS, PRIMARILY DUE TO PASSAGE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MINDANAO AND MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM THE NUMERICAL MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH SPREAD CONFINED TO THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION INDICATIVE OF MINOR TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES. MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS SUGGEST A FAIRLY STEADY TREND IN INTENSITY, BUT THAT TREND IS ASSESSED AS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ANNOTATED IN THE FORECAST DISCUSSION SECTION ABOVE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
-
-
WTPN31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 7.2N 125.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 7.2N 125.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 7.7N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 8.1N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 7.3N 125.1E. 18DEC23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 1005 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z. // NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 7.2N 125.9E INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 393 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 0 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONTINUED DEEP, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, CONVECTION AS TD JELAWAT MADE LANDFALL INTO THE RUGGED MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MINDANAO, OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE USING EXTRAPOLATED AND SLOWED DOWN STORM MOTION AND REFERENCED FROM THE WIND OBSERVATION FROM DAVAO, 17NM TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON RATE OF DECAY DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF JELAWAT WITH SURROUNDING RUGGED TERRAIN, AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DEGRADED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOSTLY DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: OVER LAND OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 18W WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY, AT BEST, UP TO TAU 12 THEN DISSIPATE BY TAU 24, VERY LIKELY SOONER, DUE TO PERSISTENT FRICTIONAL EFFECT OF THE TERRAIN AND THE INCREASE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM THE NUMERICAL MODEL SUITE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE LLC, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
-
-
WTPH20 RPMM 180600
SECURITE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING FOR SHIPPING NR. 07F
ISSUED AT 0600UTC, 18 DECEMBER 2023 BY DOST-PAGASA, PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JELAWAT (2317) 1006HPA
AT 0600UTC, PSTN 08.1N 125.5E MOV NW 15KT
MXWD 25KT NEAR CTR
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NM OF 08.1N 125.5E, SEND 3-HOURLY WX REPORTS.
FINAL WARNING
WEATHER MANILA=
-
WTPN31 PGTW 181500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 7.3N 125.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 7.3N 125.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 7.6N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 8.1N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 124.4E. 18DEC23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 18W CONTINUES TO DECAY RAPIDLY AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PROGRESSIVELY BECOMES MORE FRAGMENTED AND DISPERSED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON CURRENT TRAJECTORY AND STORM MOTION, SLOWED DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS, AT BEST. TD JELAWAT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12, LIKELY SOONER, DUE TO CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 1007 MB.// NNNN
-
-
-
-
ABPW10 PGTW 201330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201330Z-210600ZDEC2023// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 167.6E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 18W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.9N 114.0E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201028Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC AREA OF CIRCULATION HUGGING THE EASTERN EDGE OF A ROBUST NORTHEAST COLD SURGE PUSHING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM. THE EIR SHOWS AN AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVTY WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF MID-LEVEL ROTATION, WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE REGION MARK THE OUTLINES OF THE RELATIVELY BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MICROWAVE IMAGE NOTED ABOVE SHOWS A BROAD ARC OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND AN EXPOSED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION TO THE SOUTH, GENERALLY MARKING THE POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE WIND FIELD REMAINS HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS STREAMING DOWN THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE ON THE EASTERN SIDE THE WINDS REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR, OUTFLOW AND SST CONDITIONS BEING OFFSET BY THE ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD SURGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL SHORTLY BEGIN DIVING SOUTHWESTWARD, RIDING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SURGE FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW SOME OF THE SURGE FLOW STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION AS IT PASSES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF VIETNAM, WHICH BEARS CLOSE SCRUTINY AS THE TERRAIN INDUCED CYCLONIC FLOW ENHANCEMENT COULD RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN CYCLONIC VORTICITY IN AND AROUND THE LLCC AS THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN MALAY PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 138.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 138.8E, APPROXIMATELY 183 NM EAST OF WEIPA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SCATTERED OVER AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION EVIDENT IN A 200024Z ASCAT-B IMAGE. LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST, THROUGH THE LLCC THAT DEFINES 94P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (10-15KT) VWS, GOOD UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT CURVES EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AND UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(2) TO LOW.// NNNN
