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ABIO10 PGTW 291800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/291800Z-301800ZJAN2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290751ZJAN2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 29JAN24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7S 71.1E, APPROXIMATELY 798 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 290900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0S 64.3E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291216Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION AND A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE VWS (15-20 KNOTS) AND MODERATE (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. // NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 300047 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 64.7 E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65 24H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85 48H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85 60H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95 72H: 2024/02/02 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 95 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/03 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 110 120H: 2024/02/04 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE NORTHEAST OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO SINCE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH FLUCTUATING CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. AN ASCAT PASS ON SUNDAY MORNING SHOWED AN INITIALLY ILL-DEFINED CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF 14S/64TH WITH 20KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A MONSOON FLOW. SINCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND UP TO NOW, A COMMA-SHAPED CLOUD CLUSTER ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. AN INITIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF 1.0 CAN BE ESTABLISHED ON MONDAY JANUARY 29 BETWEEN 06 AND 12UTC. AT THAT TIME, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL APPEARED TO BE ELONGATED OR EVEN TO HAVE TWO VORTICES (WITH A CENTER AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER, BUT A POSSIBLE OTHER CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTION). AN ASCAT-B PASS ON MONDAY AT 1733Z SHOWED WINDS OF 25KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SEEM TO SHOW THE BEGINNINGS OF A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE AND VERY POWERFUL THUNDERY CONVECTIVE BURST. THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STAGE AND T2.0 AT 00UTC. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING, CHANNELLED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN MASCARENE ISLANDS AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF RODRIGUES ON TUESDAY EVENING. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN BECOME TEMPORARILY SLOWER BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IN A BAROMETRIC COL BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. FROM THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY ONWARDS, MOST NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST A RESUMPTION OF EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH SOMEHOW MIXED. WHILE THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL AS GOOD MONSOON FLOW SUPPLY, CONVERGENCE REMAINS INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE INITIALLY ELONGATED STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX CAN DELAY THE CONSOLIDATION OF A TIGHT CENTRAL CORE. NEVERTHELESS, IF A PRESSURE CENTER MANAGES TO POSITION ITSELF UNDER ACTIVE CONVECTION, SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT, AS SUGGESTED BY SOME NUMERICAL MODELS (AROME, GFS). FROM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD IMPROVE BUT SLOWER MOVEMENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR COULD ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE, THUS WEAKENING IT. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH A TROUGH. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - RODRIGUES: ACCORDING TO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM COULD TRANSIT EAST OF RODRIGUES AT TROPICAL STORM STAGE WITH A CENTER REMAINING MORE THAN 150 KM FROM THE ISLAND. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN FAR AWAY FROM RODRIGUES. ONLY SOME SQUALLS AND ROUGH SEAS SHOULD AFFECT THE ISLAND IN THE SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT TRACK, A CLOSER PASSAGE IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT (PROBABILITY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF PASSING LESS THAN 100 KM FROM THE ISLAND). RESIDENTS OF RODRIGUES ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF FORECASTS AND TO COMPLY WITH THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES. - NO PARTICULAR IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND.=
最后于 2024-01-30 09:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
ABIO10 PGTW 300130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/300130Z-301800ZJAN2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291951ZJAN2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 29JAN24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3S 70.8E, APPROXIMATELY 832 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO 130 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 292100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 64.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 64.4E, APPROXIMATELY 136 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291216Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION AND SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES OVER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.// NNNN
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WTIO30 FMEE 300654 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/5/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 64.3 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 65 24H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 36H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85 48H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85 60H: 2024/02/01 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95 72H: 2024/02/02 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/03 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 110 120H: 2024/02/04 06 UTC: 35.6 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.0 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NAO 05-20232024 HAS BEEN MONITORED SINCE LAST NIGHT BY RSMC LA REUNION, AND IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING AT MORE THAN 180 MN NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION WITHIN THE CLOUD FORMATION OF THIS WEAK LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE, ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LLCC THAT APPEARS INCREASINGLY EXPOSED, ACCORDING TO ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. THIS COULD BE EXPLAINED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY STRESS. DESPITE THE RECEPTION OF MICROWAVE IMAGES (SSMIS), THE LOW-LYING CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH PRECISION. THIS IS LINKED TO THE SYSTEM'S DIFFICULTY IN ORGANIZING ITSELF AT THE MOMENT. THE PARTIAL 0442Z ASCAT-B PASS PROVES THIS, WITH AVERAGE WINDS OF 20 KT AND A FAIRLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN FACT, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN LEFT AT THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING, CHANNELLED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN MASCARENE ISLANDS AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF RODRIGUES ON TUESDAY EVENING. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN BECOME TEMPORARILY SLOWER BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IN A BAROMETRIC COL BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. FROM THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY ONWARDS, MOST NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST A RESUMPTION OF EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM, ALTHOUGH SOMEHOW MIXED. WHILE THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL AS GOOD MONSOON FLOW SUPPLY, CONVERGENCE REMAINS INSUFFICIENT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE INITIALLY ELONGATED STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX CAN DELAY THE CONSOLIDATION OF A TIGHT CENTRAL CORE. NEVERTHELESS, IF A PRESSURE CENTER MANAGES TO POSITION ITSELF UNDER ACTIVE CONVECTION, SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT, AS SUGGESTED BY SOME NUMERICAL MODELS (AROME, GFS). FROM WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD IMPROVE BUT SLOWER MOVEMENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR COULD ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE, THUS WEAKENING IT. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH A TROUGH. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - RODRIGUES: ACCORDING TO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM COULD TRANSIT EAST OF RODRIGUES AT TROPICAL STORM STAGE WITH A CENTER REMAINING MORE THAN 150 KM FROM THE ISLAND. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN FAR AWAY FROM RODRIGUES. ONLY SOME SQUALLS AND ROUGH SEAS SHOULD AFFECT THE ISLAND IN THE SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT TRACK, A CLOSER PASSAGE IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT (PROBABILITY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF PASSING LESS THAN 100 KM FROM THE ISLAND). RESIDENTS OF RODRIGUES ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF FORECASTS AND TO COMPLY WITH THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES. - NO PARTICULAR IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND.=
最后于 2024-01-30 15:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 301301 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 64.4 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 24H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 36H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85 48H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85 60H: 2024/02/02 00 UTC: 20.8 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95 72H: 2024/02/02 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/03 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 110 120H: 2024/02/04 12 UTC: 37.3 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SW: 220 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.0 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD TOPS OF TROPICAL PERTUBATION NO. 05-20232024 HAVE TENDED TO COOL, WHILE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THIS IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A VERTICAL SOUTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. THE SSMIS F-18 PASS AT 1208Z CLEARLY SHOWS THIS SHEARED CONFIGURATION WITH A FAIRLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO SYMMETRIZE. THE SYSTEM IS THUS LEFT AT THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THIS TROPICAL LOW IS SET TO MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING, ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE GIVING A LIGHT NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF RODRIGUES TONIGHT. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME TEMPORARILY CHAOTIC AND SLOWER BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY, IN A BAROMETRIC PASS BETWEEN TWO RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE. FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARDS, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A RESUMPTION OF SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT, LINKED TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHICH IS STILL WIDELY DISPERSED, LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SYSTEM'S TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY MIXED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, AND ARE CURRENTLY SUBJECT TO A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES, NOTABLY CONCERNING THE QUALITY OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE SYSTEM'S ABILITY TO DEEPEN TO THE SYMBOLIC STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. NEVERTHELESS, IF THE LLCC MANAGES TO POSITION ITSELF UNDER THE ZONE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION (WHICH IS NOT THE CASE AT PRESENT), A MORE OR LESS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT, AS ENVISAGED BY CERTAIN MODELS (GFS, AND HWRF). FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR COULD INJECT DRY AIR OVER THE CORE AND WEAKEN IT. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE SYSTEM COULD BE TAKEN OVER BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - RODRIGUES: ACCORDING TO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM COULD TRANSIT EAST OF RODRIGUES AT TROPICAL STORM STAGE WITH A CENTER REMAINING MORE THAN 150 KM FROM THE ISLAND. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN FAR AWAY FROM RODRIGUES. ONLY SOME SQUALLS AND ROUGH SEAS SHOULD AFFECT THE ISLAND IN THE SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT TRACK, A CLOSER PASSAGE IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT (PROBABILITY LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OF PASSING LESS THAN 100 KM FROM THE ISLAND). RESIDENTS OF RODRIGUES ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF FORECASTS AND TO COMPLY WITH THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES. - NO PARTICULAR IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND.=
最后于 2024-01-30 21:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS21 PGTW 301330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.7S 64.4E TO 20.5S 66.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 64.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 64.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 64.5E, APPROXIMATELY 81 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LLCC. A 300536Z ASCAT METOP-C SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS SHOWS AN OVAL SHAPED LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS (15 TO 20 KNOTS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C, A STRONG 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH CONTINUOUS DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 311330Z. // NNNN
ABIO10 PGTW 301400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/301400Z-301800ZJAN2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300751ZJAN2024// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301321ZJAN2024// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 30JAN24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1S 72.8E, APPROXIMATELY 1002 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 300900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 64.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 64.5E, APPROXIMATELY 81 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE LLCC. A 300536Z ASCAT METOP-C SCATTEROMETER PARTIAL PASS SHOWS AN OVAL SHAPED LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS (15 TO 20 KNOTS ), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C, A STRONG 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH CONTINUOUS DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES OVER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 301330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B. (1) TO HIGH.// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-30 21:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 301914 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/5/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 65.6 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SW: 55 NW: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95 24H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100 36H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 100 48H: 2024/02/01 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 110 60H: 2024/02/02 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 120 72H: 2024/02/02 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/03 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 195 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 140 120H: 2024/02/04 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 325 SE: 400 SW: 215 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 150 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. CLOUD TOPS HAVE FURTHER COOLED BUT REMAIN AT A DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER, DEFINING A SHEARED CONFIGURATION. THIS GIVES A DVORAK ANAYLSE OF 2.5. THE LAST MICROWAVE PASS AT 1428UTC SHOWS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, CERTAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF POWER IN THE SOUTHERN PART, LINKED TO THE DISTANT PRESENCE OF ANGGREK. IN THE ABSENCE OF EXPLOITABLE ASCAT SWATH, WINDS ESTIMATED BY DVORAK ANALYSIS LEAVE SYSTEM 05-20232024 AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE AT 30KT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05-20232024 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS IN THE SHORT TERM, DUE TO ITS LOCATION TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GENERATING A LIGHT NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD BECOME TEMPORARILY CHAOTIC AND SLOWER BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IN A BAROMETRIC NECK BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARDS, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A CLEAR RESUMPTION OF SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT, LINKED TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPRESSION BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WHOSE SPREAD IS STILL SIGNIFICANT. THIS LEADS TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, DUE TO AN ERRATIC TRAJECTORY IN THE SHORT TERM AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AT 48-HOUR INTERVALS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY MIXED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, AND ARE CURRENTLY SUBJECT TO A NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES, NOTABLY CONCERNING THE QUALITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR. IT SEEMS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE, BUT IF THE DEPRESSION CENTER MANAGES TO POSITION ITSELF BELOW THE ZONE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION, A MORE OR LESS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR COULD INJECT DRY AIR OVER THE CORE AND WEAKEN IT BY THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM COULD BE TAKEN OVER BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, RESULTING IN INCREASED INTENSITY TOWARDS THE END OF ITS LIFE. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - RODRIGUES: ACCORDING TO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM COULD TRANSIT EAST OF RODRIGUES AT TROPICAL STORM STAGE WITH A CENTER REMAINING MORE THAN 200 KM FROM THE ISLAND. - GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN FAR AWAY FROM RODRIGUES. ONLY SOME SQUALLS AND ROUGH SEAS SHOULD AFFECT THE ISLAND IN THE SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT TRACK, A CLOSER PASSAGE IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. - RESIDENTS OF RODRIGUES ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF FORECASTS AND TO COMPLY WITH THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES. - NO PARTICULAR IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND.=
-
WTIO30 FMEE 310024 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 2.A POSITION 2024/01/31 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 65.6 E (TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SW: 55 NW: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95 24H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100 36H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 165 48H: 2024/02/02 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 185 60H: 2024/02/02 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 120 72H: 2024/02/03 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/04 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SW: 195 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 140 120H: 2024/02/05 00 UTC: 37.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 335 SE: 400 SW: 215 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 150 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE, REMAINING MAINLY IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SUMMITS REMAIN QUITE COLD, BUT THERE IS NO NOTICEABLE CURVATURE. THE 2216UTC GPM MICROWAVE PASS ALLOWS US TO NOTE A STILL WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND TO PLACE A CENTER TO THE WEST OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALBEIT WITH RATHER LOOSE PRECISION. IN THE ABSENCE OF AN ASCAT SWATH, THE ESTIMATION OF WIND EXTENSIONS REMAINS DELICATE, AND THE ABSENCE OF CURVATURE IN THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION ARGUES IN FAVOR OF A 2.5 DVORAK ANALYSIS. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 30KT THEREFORE CLASSIFY SYSTEM 05-20232024 AS STILL IN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE. TRACK FORECAST IS STILL AS DELICATE AS EVER, WITH A SYSTEM THAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN. THE 05-20232024 SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRENDING SOUTHWARDS DUE TO ITS LOCATION TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IMPARTING A LIGHT NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME CHAOTIC OR QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY, IN A BAROMETRIC NECK BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARDS, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A CLEAR RESUMPTION OF SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT, LINKED TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPRESSION BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WHICH IS SOMEWHAT SPREADY. THIS LEADS TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, DUE TO AN ERRATIC TRACK AT SHORT INTERVALS AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AT 48-HOUR INTERVALS, BUT OVERALL A CLEAR SLOWDOWN IS NOTICEABLE COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY MIXED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE PRESENT. THE LOW-PRESSURE CENTER IS NOT CLEARLY APPROACHING THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ZONE, BUT A MORE OR LESS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS REMAINS POSSIBLE. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR COULD INJECT DRY AIR OVER THE CORE AND WEAKEN IT BY THURSDAY. WITH ITS STATIONARY PHASE, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WEAKEN, FURTHER LIMITING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM COULD BE TAKEN OVER BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, EXPLAINING THE INCREASED INTENSITY AT THE END OF ITS LIFE. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - RODRIGUES: ACCORDING TO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM COULD TRANSIT EAST OF RODRIGUES AT TROPICAL STORM STAGE WITH A CENTER REMAINING MORE THAN 200 KM FROM THE ISLAND. - GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN FAR AWAY FROM RODRIGUES. ONLY SOME SQUALLS AND ROUGH SEAS SHOULD AFFECT THE ISLAND IN THE SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT TRACK, A CLOSER PASSAGE IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. - RESIDENTS OF RODRIGUES ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF FORECASTS AND TO COMPLY WITH THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES. - NO PARTICULAR IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND.=
WTIO30 FMEE 310030 CCA ***************CORRECTIVE************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 2.A POSITION 2024/01/31 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 65.6 E (TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 110 SW: 55 NW: 130 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95 24H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100 36H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 165 48H: 2024/02/02 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 185 60H: 2024/02/02 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 120 72H: 2024/02/03 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/04 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SW: 195 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 140 120H: 2024/02/05 00 UTC: 37.0 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 335 SE: 400 SW: 215 NW: 240 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 150 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE, REMAINING MAINLY IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SUMMITS REMAIN QUITE COLD, BUT THERE IS NO NOTICEABLE CURVATURE. THE 2216UTC GPM MICROWAVE PASS ALLOWS US TO NOTE A STILL WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND TO PLACE A CENTER TO THE WEST OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALBEIT WITH RATHER LOOSE PRECISION. IN THE ABSENCE OF AN ASCAT SWATH, THE ESTIMATION OF WIND EXTENSIONS REMAINS DELICATE, AND THE ABSENCE OF CURVATURE IN THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION ARGUES IN FAVOR OF A 2.5 DVORAK ANALYSIS. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 30KT THEREFORE CLASSIFY SYSTEM 05-20232024 AS STILL IN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE. TRACK FORECAST IS STILL AS DELICATE AS EVER, WITH A SYSTEM THAT APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN. THE 05-20232024 SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRENDING SOUTHWARDS DUE TO ITS LOCATION TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IMPARTING A LIGHT NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME CHAOTIC OR QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY, IN A BAROMETRIC NECK BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARDS, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A CLEAR RESUMPTION OF SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT, LINKED TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPRESSION BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WHICH IS SOMEWHAT SPREADY. THIS LEADS TO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SYSTEM'S TRACK, DUE TO AN ERRATIC TRACK AT SHORT INTERVALS AND UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT AT 48-HOUR INTERVALS, BUT OVERALL A CLEAR SLOWDOWN IS NOTICEABLE COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY MIXED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE PRESENT. THE LOW-PRESSURE CENTER IS NOT CLEARLY APPROACHING THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ZONE, BUT A MORE OR LESS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS REMAINS POSSIBLE. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR COULD INJECT DRY AIR OVER THE CORE AND WEAKEN IT BY THURSDAY. WITH ITS STATIONARY PHASE, THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL WILL ALSO WEAKEN, FURTHER LIMITING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM COULD BE TAKEN OVER BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, EXPLAINING THE INCREASED INTENSITY AT THE END OF ITS LIFE. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - RODRIGUES: ACCORDING TO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM COULD TRANSIT EAST OF RODRIGUES AT TROPICAL STORM STAGE WITH A CENTER REMAINING MORE THAN 200 KM FROM THE ISLAND. - GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN FAR AWAY FROM RODRIGUES. ONLY SOME SQUALLS AND ROUGH SEAS SHOULD AFFECT THE ISLAND IN THE SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT TRACK, A CLOSER PASSAGE IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT. - RESIDENTS OF RODRIGUES ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF FORECASTS AND TO COMPLY WITH THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES. - NO PARTICULAR IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND.=
最后于 2024-01-31 08:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 310300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301321ZJAN2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 66.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 66.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 19.8S 66.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 19.7S 66.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.7S 66.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 19.9S 67.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 22.2S 69.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 27.3S 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 34.7S 79.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 310300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 66.0E. 31JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 491 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 311330). NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 310300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.7S 66.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 491 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TC CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NINE) RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING WITH INTERMITTENTLY EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION CENTRALLY LOCATED OVERHEAD OF SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY HIGH BETWEEN 29C AND 30C WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS. EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS MOST PREVALENT THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON METEOSAT-9 EIR ANIMATION LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DEEP-LAYER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09S IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 48 AS COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS INFLUENCE INITIAL TRACK MOTION. FOLLOWING TAU 48, TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AS ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 48, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO NEAR 50 KTS AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO COMPETING FAVORABLE TRACK SPEEDS WITH A GRADUAL DECAY IN ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 09S WILL TRACK GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 48 AS COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS SLOW THE GENERAL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS AT TAU 72 DISPLAYS A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 75NM LENDING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO THE TAU 0-72 INTERVAL, WHILE THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS 218NM, CONVEYING LOW-CONFIDENCE IN TRACK SPEED DURING THE 0-72 TAU INTERVAL. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS PRESENTS ITSELF AT TAU 72, WITH A 20 KTS SPREAD, CONVEYING MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AT TAU 72. HOWEVER, BY TAU 108, INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS CONVERGE TO A SPREAD OF JUST 5 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-01-31 12:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：