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WTIO30 FMEE 310624 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/5/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 2.A POSITION 2024/01/31 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 66.1 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 250 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 250 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/01 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/02 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 215 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/02 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/03 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 110 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 75 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/04 06 UTC: 31.1 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 470 SE: 600 SW: 415 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 95 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=2.0 CI=2.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM NO. 5 HAS REMAINED EXCLUSIVELY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH A SLIGHT ATTENUATION (CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES RISING). FURTHERMORE THE ASCAT PASS AT 0430Z SHOWS A STILL ELONGATED CIRCULATION, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30KT ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS A 30KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN TERMS OF TRACK, FORECASTING REMAINS COMPLEX IN THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT, CURRENTLY IN A AREA BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, THERE ARE NO REALLY ESTABLISHED DIRECT CURRENTS, LEAVING THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEN THURSDAY EVENING, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A CLEAR START TO SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT, LINKED TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL TAKE IT OUT OF THE TROPICAL DOMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RSMC TRACK IS THEREFORE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS (LEAVING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE EAST OF RODRIGUES). N TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO SET UP A COMPACT CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE ON THE POLAR COAST (INFLUENCE OF ANGGREK, WHICH STOPS THE ALIZES FLOW). WITH WIND SHEAR INCREASE, THE CENTER CURRENTLY REMAINS FAR FROM CONVECTION. THE SCENARIO OF THE CENTER MOVING CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION, SYNONYMOUS WITH POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION, SEEMS TO BE RECEDING (BUT HAS NOT YET BEEN COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF INTENSIFICATION TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS). ON THE OTHER HAND, THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE SHOULD GRADUALLY REDUCE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA. THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST THEREFORE CONSIDERS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, WITH INCREASED SHEAR, INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND REDUCED OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS (DESPITE AN INTENSIFICATION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH). IT SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE WEEKEND. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : - RODRIGUES: VERY ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES CLOSE TO 4M ON THURSDAY. LITTLE IMPACT IN TERMS OF WIND AND RAIN. - NO IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION.=
最后于 2024-01-31 15:10:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 311223 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/5/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 2.A POSITION 2024/01/31 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 66.2 E (TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.5/W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/02 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/02 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/03 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95 72H: 2024/02/03 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/04 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 110 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=1.5 CI=2.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM NO. 5 HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND MOVED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN A RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER IN THE LAST HOUR. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NEW DATA, THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH WINDS OF 30KT. IN TERMS OF TRACK, FORECASTING REMAINS COMPLEX IN THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT, CURRENTLY IN A AREA BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, THERE ARE NO REALLY ESTABLISHED DIRECT CURRENTS, LEAVING THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. THEN THURSDAY EVENING, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A CLEAR START TO SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT, LINKED TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL TAKE IT OUT OF THE TROPICAL DOMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RSMC TRACK IS THEREFORE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT 24HOURS (LEAVING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE EAST OF RODRIGUES). IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM STRUGGLED TO SET UP A COMPACT CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE ON THE POLAR COAST (INFLUENCE OF ANGGREK, WHICH STOPS THE TRADE WINDS FLOW). WITH WIND SHEAR INCREASE, THE CENTER CURRENTLY REMAINS FAR FROM CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE SHOULD GRADUALLY REDUCE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA. THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST THEREFORE CONSIDERS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, WITH INCREASED SHEAR, INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND REDUCED OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS (DESPITE AN INTENSIFICATION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH). IT SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE WEEKEND. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : - RODRIGUES: VERY ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES CLOSE TO 4M ON THURSDAY. LITTLE IMPACT IN TERMS OF WIND AND RAIN. - NO IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION.=
最后于 2024-01-31 20:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 311500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 66.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 66.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 19.8S 66.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.7S 66.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.0S 67.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.5S 68.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 23.6S 71.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 30.7S 77.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 311500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 66.2E. 31JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 502 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING. // NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 311500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.0S 66.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 502 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NINE) CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE A VERTICALLY ALIGNED VORTEX, AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), WHICH SHOWS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF REMNANT CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF. THE MOST RECENT MSI HOWEVER, SHOWS A BLOSSOMING OF DEEP CONVECTION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LLCC, SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM MAY FINALLY BE POISED TO SYMMETRIZE. A 311147Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA JUST EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN COMBINATION WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A GENEROUS 35 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES, SUPPORTED BY THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.3 (33 KNOTS) AND AN AIDT ESTIMATE OF 40 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SSTS, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, CONSTRAINED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR AND CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST. WHILE THE CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES JUST 10 KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL SHEAR UP TO 30 KNOTS WHICH APPEARS GENERALLY TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE SATELLITE DEPICTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, WITH NO CLEAR-CUT STEERING MECHANISM AND IS THUS MEANDERING RATHER AIMLESSLY EAST OF PORT MATHURIN. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 311200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: STRONG MID-LEVEL SHEAR, CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND DRY AIR TO THE WEST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER INSIDE THIS POCKET OF WEAK STEERING THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 36. BY TAU 48, A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND COMBINE FORCES WITH A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND EJECT TC 09S ONTO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 48 AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, TC 09S WILL ACCELERATE ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH, REACHING TRACK SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, EVERYTHING DEPENDS UPON THE VORTEX AXISYMMETRIZATION PROCESS. THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR THE VORTEX TO ALIGN VERTICALLY AND THE CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. HOWEVER, THIS WOULD BE OFFSET BY A LOCALIZED REDUCTION IN SST DUE TO UPWELLING AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. AROUND TAU 36, THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REACH A MINIMUM WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEGINS TO REALLY RAMP UP AS IT TAPS INTO THE DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION UP TO 40 KNOTS. BY TAU 72 SHEAR PICKS UP SHARPLY, TO AT LEAST 40 KNOTS AND COMES TO DOMINATE THE OUTFLOW AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARED APART. AT THIS POINT THE RACE WILL BE ON TO SEE WHICH HAPPENS FIRST, DISSIPATION OR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR BOTH TO OCCUR SIMULTANEOUSLY NO LATER THAN TAU 96, BUT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY IF IT FAILS TO ORGANIZE IN THE NEAR-TERM. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY, GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24, TURNING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 36. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TO 120NM AT TAU 72, THOUGH ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES SHARPLY AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES POLEWARD. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO A MODEST 170NM BUT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO OVER 700NM. THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN, THE EXTREME ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AFTER TAU 48 AND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM EVEN REACHES TAU 96, LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH ROUGHLY AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN MODELS SHOWING DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THOSE PEAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR 50 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE CONSENSUS MEAN ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND THE JTWC FORECAST HEDGES TO THE CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-01 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 311841 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/5/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 2.A POSITION 2024/01/31 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 66.5 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 215 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/01 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/02 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/02 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/03 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/03 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 120 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/04 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 350 SE: 585 SW: 230 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 140 NW: 65 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=2.0 CI=2.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS RESUMED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE DEVELOPED WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS OF THE ORDER OF -81AOC. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER FAILED TO SLIP BENEATH THE CONVECTION, AND THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINED SHEARED (ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LESS EXPOSED THAN DURING THE DAY). THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THUS MAINTAINED ITS CONSTRAINT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, PARTLY REJECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE PASSAGE OF THE ASCAT AT 1651Z PRESENT NEAR GALE FORCE WIND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND ALSO SHOWED A FAIRLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A FEW GALE-LIKE PEAKS ARE PRESENT IN THE SOUTH-WEST SEMICIRCLE, BUT REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT. THE POSITION HAS THEREFORE BEEN REVIEWED AND THE WIND EXTENSIONS REACTUALIZED. ON THIS BASIS, THE SYSTEM IS LEFT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES AND SUBJECTIVE CIMSS DATA. TRAJECTORY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT, CURRENTLY IN A AREA BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, THERE ARE NO REALLY ESTABLISHED DIRECT CURRENTS, LEAVING THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. THEN THURSDAY EVENING, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A CLEAR START TO SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT, LINKED TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL TAKE IT OUT OF THE TROPICAL DOMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RSMC TRAJECTORY IS THEREFORE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY HIGHLY DISPERSED, WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, A SIGNAL PERSISTS ON THE LOCATION OF THE TRAJECTORY WELL TO THE EAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO SET UP A FIRM, COMPACT CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE POLAR SIDE (INFLUENCE OF ANGGREK, WHICH IS BLOCKING THE ALIZES FLOW). THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BEHIND THE CONVECTION, DUE TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE SHOULD GRADUALLY REDUCE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA. THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST THEREFORE ASSUMES THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES BACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, WITH INCREASED SHEAR ALOFT, INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS (DESPITE AN INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH). IT SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE WEEKEND. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : - RODRIGUES: VERY ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES CLOSE TO 4M ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. - NO IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 010048 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/5/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 2.A POSITION 2024/02/01 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 66.2 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 230 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/02 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/02 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/03 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/03 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 110 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/04 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 415 SW: 280 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/05 00 UTC: 33.6 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100 120H: 2024/02/06 00 UTC: 42.1 S / 92.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 465 SE: 565 SW: 345 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 315 NW: 130 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=2.0 CI=2.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO BREATHE, HELPED BY THE NIGHT-TIME CYCLE. THE ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE NIGHT CONFIRMS A MIGRATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AT THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION, TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTH-WEST. SINCE 20UTC, AN ARC OF SHEAR HAS ALSO APPEARED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE POLE, SHOWING THE CURRENT EXTENT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ESTIMATED AT 20KT FROM WEST-NORTHWEST ACCORDING TO CIMSS, IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION TO THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT MOVEMENT. LASTLY, THE GMI MICROWAVE AT 2123Z HAS MADE IT POSSIBLE TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER AND ALSO CONFIRMS THE CURRENT POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. IN VIEW OF THESE OBJECTIVE ELEMENTS AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCE, THE SYSTEM IS LEFT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TRAJECTORY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT, CURRENTLY IN A AREA BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, THERE ARE NO REALLY ESTABLISHED DIRECT CURRENTS, LEAVING THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. THEN THURSDAY / FRIDAY, MOST MODELS SUGGEST A CLEAR START TO SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT, LINKED TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL TAKE IT OUT OF THE TROPICAL DOMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RSMC TRAJECTORY IS THEREFORE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY HIGHLY DISPERSED, IN TERMS OF ALONG TRACK, WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IN THE CURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, A SIGNAL PERSISTS ON THE LOCATION OF THE TRAJECTORY WELL TO THE EAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO SET UP A FIRM, COMPACT CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS. THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BEHIND THE CONVECTION, DUE TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE SHOULD GRADUALLY REDUCE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA. THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST THEREFORE ASSUMES THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES BACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, WITH INCREASED SHEAR ALOFT, INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS (DESPITE AN INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH). IT SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE WEEKEND. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : - RODRIGUES: VERY ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES CLOSE TO 4M ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. - NO IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION.=
最后于 2024-02-01 09:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 66.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 66.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 19.2S 66.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 19.4S 66.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.3S 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 22.1S 69.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 29.2S 75.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 66.2E. 01FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 617 NM EAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.5S 66.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 617 NM EAST OF ST DENIS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION POSITIONED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF ISOLATED, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. A 312303Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES WEAK OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH NO DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A LINEAR BAND OF SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. DESPITE THE UNIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, A 311745Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWED 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY MODERATE POLEWARD VENTING. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE WEST AND A WEAK STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 312100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION VICE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TAU 12 THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN SETS UP. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AFTER TAU 36 AND COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS UNDER A SUBTROPICAL JET. VWS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH DRY AIR ENVELOPING THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BUT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY IN THE 40 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. HAFS-A PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 53 KNOTS AT TAU 72 WHILE COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 60 KNOTS AT TAU 72. HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) ARE ASSESSED AS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER TAU 36. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-01 12:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 010639 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20232024 1.A REMNANT LOW 5 2.A POSITION 2024/02/01 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 66.0 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 260 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/01 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 24H: 2024/02/02 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/02 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 195 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/03 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/03 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/04 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 75 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/05 06 UTC: 35.1 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 390 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 325 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 185 120H: 2024/02/06 06 UTC: 43.7 S / 94.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=1.5+ CI=2.0+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED. THE CENTER IS CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE AT THE NORTH-WEST EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTH-WEST. WEST-NORTH-WEST WINDSHEAR REACHES 15-20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS, IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION TO THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT DISPLACEMENT. FINALLY, THE 0126Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS MADE IT POSSIBLE TO RESITUATE THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER AT THE END OF THE NIGHT, AND ALSO CONFIRMS THE CURRENT POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF THE REUNION RSMC IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THOSE OF THE OTHER CENTERS, BUT THE MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30KT DUE TO INERTIA, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. IN VIEW OF THESE FACTORS, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO REMANENT LOW. TRACK FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT, CURRENTLY IN A AREA BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, THERE ARE NO REALLY ESTABLISHED DIRECT CURRENTS, LEAVING THE SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12-24HOURS. FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS, IFS, WHICH IS THE MOST ACCURATE MODEL, SUGGESTS A CLEAR START TO SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT, LINKED TO THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL TAKE IT OUT OF THE TROPICAL DOMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RSMC TRAJECTORY IS THEREFORE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY HIGHLY DISPERSED, IN TERMS OF ALONG TRACK, WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, IN THE CURVATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, A SIGNAL PERSISTS ON THE LOCATION OF THE TRAJECTORY WELL TO THE EAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO SET UP A FIRM, COMPACT CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS. THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BEHIND THE CONVECTION, DUE TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE QUASI-STATIONARY PHASE SHOULD GRADUALLY REDUCE THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA. THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST THEREFORE ASSUMES THAT THE REMANENT LOW STAGE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES BACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, WITH INCREASED SHEAR ALOFT, INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS (DESPITE AN INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH). IT SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE WEEKEND. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : - RODRIGUES: VERY ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES CLOSE TO 4M ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. - NO IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION.=
最后于 2024-02-01 15:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 011258 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20232024 1.A REMNANT LOW 5 2.A POSITION 2024/02/01 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 66.2 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/S 0.0/0 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 260 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/02 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 24H: 2024/02/02 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 195 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/03 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 185 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/03 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/04 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 155 SW: 0 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/04 12 UTC: 34.3 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 75 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/05 12 UTC: 41.4 S / 86.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 155 SW: 280 NW: 230 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 100 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=1.5+ CI=2.0+ OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY, THROWN FAR TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BY A 15-20KT WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR ACCORDING TO CIMSS. THIS CENTER IS CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE ON VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE AMSR2 SATELLITE PICTURES (SWATH 0948Z) AT THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION, AND IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTH-EAST. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF RSMC DE LA REUNION IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THOSE OF THE OTHER CENTERS, BUT THE MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30KT DUE TO INERTIA, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. THE SYSTEM THEREFORE REMAINS AT THE REMNANT LOW STAGE. TRACK FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO SHORT-TERM UNCERTAINTY. IN FACT, AT PRESENT, BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, THERE ARE NO REALLY ESTABLISHED DIRECTING FLOWS. HOWEVER, A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS, IFS, WHICH IS THE MOST ACCURATE MODEL, SUGGESTS A CLEAR SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGH, WHICH WILL TAKE IT OUT OF THE TROPICAL DOMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RSMC TRACK IS THEREFORE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE GUIDELINES, WHICH ARE CURRENTLY HIGHLY DISPERSED IN TERMS OF ALONG TRACK, WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT 12-24H, AS IT CURVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, A SIGNAL PERSISTS CONCERNING THE LOCATION OF THE TRACK WELL TO THE EAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND, BUT PASSING CLOSE TO AMSTERDAM THIS WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO ESTABLISH A CLOSED, COMPACT CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CAUSED BY WIND SHEAR ALOFT, WHICH IS SET TO INCREASE. THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BEHIND THE CONVECTION, DUE TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. ITS SLOW MOVEMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY REDUCE THE OCEAN POTENTIAL IN THE AREA. THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST THEREFORE ASSUMES THAT THE REMNANT LOW STAGE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES BACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, WITH INCREASED SHEAR ALOFT, INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS (DESPITE AN INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH). IT SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE WEEKEND. IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : - RODRIGUES: VERY ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES CLOSE TO 4M ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. - NO IMPACT ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION. - POSSIBLE GALE OVER AMSTERDAM THIS LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=
最后于 2024-02-01 22:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 18.4S 66.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 66.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.6S 67.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.5S 68.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.5S 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.6S 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 66.5E. 01FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.4S 66.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 520 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED FROM AND FULLY EXPOSED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT CONTINUED TO TRACK EQUATORWARD, EXACERBATING THE SEPARATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE 011136Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A CLOSE RANGE OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE WEST AND A WEAK STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 29 KTS AT 011200Z CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 011200Z CIMSS DPRINT: 29 KTS AT 011300Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 09S IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO A POLEWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE STR TO THE EAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 45KTS BY TAU 36. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 48, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TC 09S WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO INCREASING VWS AS IT TRACKS FURTHER POLEWARD AND DEEPER INTO THE PREVAILING STRONG WESTERLIES. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 164NM BY TAU 48; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLY DISSIPATION, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-02 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 67.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 67.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 20.3S 69.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 22.0S 71.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.7S 73.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 68.1E. 02FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 704 NM EAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z AND 030300Z.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.2S 67.7E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 704 NM EAST OF ST DENIS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, DISPLACED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 012247Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A DEFINED NOTCH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE DEGRADED WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 012100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN SETS UP. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS UNDER A SUBTROPICAL JET. VWS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH DRY AIR ENVELOPING THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 24. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BUT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY IN THE 40 TO 60 KNOT RANGE IN THE TAU 36 TO TAU 48 TIMEFRAME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-02 10:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：