TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F [997HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.5S 160.2E AT 020600UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 VIS/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORT.  CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTRE[LLCC] IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. TD05F LIES UNDER GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA  MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEMS AND MOVE IT TOWARDS EAST WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.   THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

ABPW10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051800Z-060600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05FEB24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
14.7S 164.9W, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AND HAD TRACKED 
EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 
PGTW 051500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.6S 
160.0E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA . 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, BUT 
DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LINEAR FLARING 
CONVECTION ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON 
INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS HAVING 94P ATTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 
48 HOURS AND ECMWF MUCH LATER (AROUND TAU 96). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 052330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/052330Z-060600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.9S 163.5W, APPROXIMATELY 816 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND 
HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 052100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.6S 160.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY 767 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, BUT WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL TRACK 
SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN 
DISAGREEMENT ON INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS HAVING 94P ATTAIN TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND ECMWF MUCH LATER (AT AROUND TAU 96). 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.3S 
175.3W, APPROXIMATELY 359 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS FORMING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLIES.  
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98P IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98P 
WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, NORTH OF AMERICAN SAMOA OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. GFS HAS 98P INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL 
STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS, BUT ECMWF IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE 
AND DOESN鈥橳 HAVE 98P ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT ALL.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AND 
UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

Forecast description

Tropical Low 06U

Increasing chance of a tropical cyclone in the eastern Coral Sea later in the week. No threat of direct impact to the Queensland coast.

A weak low (06U) is slow moving northwest of New Caledonia in the eastern Coral Sea, near the eastern boundary of the Australian region (160E).

06U is likely to move to the northwest over the Coral Sea today and Wednesday then move to the east from Thursday and be east of the Australian region by Friday.

From Thursday conditions are more favourable for development and while it is possible the system remains a broad weak low, it is also possible for a period of intensification. Hence, the likelihood of TC formation increases to Moderate from Thursday night and High on Saturday.

There is no threat of a direct impact on the Queensland coast.

Last updated

5 hours ago, 11:23 am AEST

TD05F WAS ANALYZED OUTSIDE OF RSMC NADIS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA ON THURSDAY 08TH FEBRUARY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION FROM TD05F FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

FRIDAY 09TH FEB: HIGH

SATURDAY 10TH FEB: HIGH

SUNDAY 11TH FEB: HIGH

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0141 UTC 07/02/2024
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 159.0E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: north northeast (021 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (10 kmh)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 kmh)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 kmh)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS 
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 230 nm (425 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(kmh) : hPa
+06:  07/0600: 16.0S 159.3E:     045 (080):  025  (045): 1001
+12:  07/1200: 15.7S 159.8E:     060 (110):  025  (045): 1001
+18:  07/1800: 15.5S 160.5E:     070 (130):  030  (055):  999
+24:  08/0000: 15.5S 161.1E:     075 (145):  030  (055):  999
+36:  08/1200: 15.8S 162.6E:     075 (140):  040  (075):  994
+48:  09/0000: 16.6S 163.7E:     090 (170):  045  (085):  991
+60:  09/1200: 17.3S 164.9E:     110 (205):  050  (095):  987
+72:  10/0000: 18.0S 166.5E:     135 (245):  055  (100):  984
+96:  11/0000: 18.9S 169.1E:     170 (315):  050  (095):  985
+120: 12/0000: 18.7S 170.5E:     245 (450):  030  (055):  998
REMARKS:
06U has showed improved curved banding over the last 24 hours and may develop
into a tropical cyclone in 36 to 48 hours.  

The low has been located using animated VIS imagery and an overnight ASCAT pass
with only moderate confidence. Curved banding has improved and a wrap of about
0.3 to 0.4 is now possible. DT is 2.0 with MET and PAT also at 2.0. There is
currently no objective intensity guidance available. Current intensity is set
at 25 knots based on Dvorak and HSCAT pass at 1641 UTC. 

The environment is moderately favourable for development with 06U located over
warm SSTs with good upper divergence and low shear. A limiting factor  seems to
have been the very dry air surrounding the system however models indicate
development is possible in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper trough to the
southwest increases outflow aloft. This window may be short lived as by
Saturday some models indicate dry could penetrate the core of 06U and weakening
starts.  

Steering is being governed by the mid-level westerlies to the north of the low
and movement is forecast to be slowly to the northeast for the next 24 hours. A
very weak mid-level low to the south intensifies to the southwest of 06U during
Friday and the system begins to move to the east southeast  under this
influence. Movement is then expected to be slow as the system weakens. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/0730 UTC.

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0728 UTC 07/02/2024
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 159.5E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: northeast (050 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (12 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm (465 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  07/1200: 15.8S 160.0E:     045 (080):  025  (045): 1001
+12:  07/1800: 15.6S 160.7E:     060 (105):  030  (055):  999
+18:  08/0000: 15.8S 161.4E:     070 (125):  030  (055):  999
+24:  08/0600: 16.0S 162.2E:     075 (140):  030  (055):  996
+36:  08/1800: 16.6S 163.1E:     085 (160):  040  (075):  993
+48:  09/0600: 17.4S 164.1E:     105 (195):  045  (085):  990
+60:  09/1800: 18.1S 165.4E:     125 (235):  050  (095):  988
+72:  10/0600: 18.7S 166.7E:     150 (280):  055  (100):  983
+96:  11/0600: 19.2S 169.4E:     205 (375):  045  (085):  988
+120: 12/0600: 19.0S 170.5E:     265 (490):  030  (055):  998
REMARKS:
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS 

06U has showed improved curved banding over the last 24 hours and may develop
into a tropical cyclone in 30 to 42 hours. 

The low has been located using animated VIS imagery and an overnight ASCAT pass
with only moderate confidence. Curved banding has improved and a wrap of about
0.3 to 0.4 is now possible. DT is 2.0 with MET and PAT also at 2.0. There is
currently no objective intensity guidance available. Current intensity is set
at 25 knots based on Dvorak and HSCAT pass at 1641 UTC. 

The environment is moderately favourable for development with 06U located over
warm SSTs with good upper divergence and low shear. A limiting factor  seems to
have been the very dry air surrounding the system however models indicate
development is possible in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper trough to the
southwest increases outflow aloft. This window may be short lived as by
Saturday some models indicate dry air could penetrate the core of 06U and
weakening starts.  

Steering is being governed by the mid-level westerlies to the north of the low
and movement is forecast to be slowly to the northeast for the next 24 hours. A
very weak mid-level low to the south intensifies to the southwest of 06U during
Friday and the system begins to move to the east southeast under this
influence. Movement is then expected to be slow as the system weakens. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1330 UTC.

IDQ20018

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION

Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

at: 1307 UTC 07/02/2024

Name: Tropical Low  

Identifier: 06U

Data At: 1200 UTC

Latitude: 15.7S

Longitude: 159.8E

Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)

Movement Towards: northeast (052 deg)

Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)

Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)

Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)

Central Pressure: 998 hPa

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 

Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 

Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 

Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 

Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 

Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 

Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 

Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 

Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)

Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)

Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS

Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa

Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm (445 km)

FORECAST DATA

Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure

(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa

+06:  07/1800: 15.6S 160.5E:     045 (085):  030  (055):  999

+12:  08/0000: 15.6S 161.3E:     060 (105):  030  (055):  999

+18:  08/0600: 15.8S 162.2E:     070 (125):  030  (055):  999

+24:  08/1200: 16.0S 163.0E:     075 (140):  030  (055):  999

+36:  09/0000: 17.0S 164.0E:     080 (150):  035  (065):  996

+48:  09/1200: 17.8S 165.1E:     105 (195):  045  (085):  991

+60:  10/0000: 18.5S 166.5E:     130 (240):  055  (100):  982

+72:  10/1200: 19.0S 167.9E:     155 (285):  050  (095):  985

+96:  11/1200: 19.2S 169.8E:     200 (370):  040  (075):  992

+120: 12/1200: 19.1S 170.0E:     270 (500):  030  (055):  998

REMARKS:

The structure of 06U has gradually improved over the last 24 hours and it may

develop into a tropical cyclone by Friday. 

The low has been located using animated IR imagery with only moderate

confidence. Curved banding has been analysed with a wrap of up to 0.5 at times,

however the curvature is not tightly wrapped around the centre but instead

orientates along a trough to the north. DT is 2.5 with MET and PAT at 2.0.

FT/CI held at 2.0 based on MET/PAT. There is currently no objective intensity

guidance available. Current intensity is set at 25 knots based on Dvorak and

model guidance. 

The environment is moderately favourable for development with 06U located over

warm SSTs with good upper divergence and low shear. A limiting factor seems to

have been the very dry air surrounding the system, coupled with strong middle

level westerlies just to the north of the centre. Models indicate some

development is possible in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper trough to the

southwest increases outflow aloft, however this could be countered by dry air

entrainment that may come from the mid-level westerlies. Any window for

development may be short lived as from Saturday models are broadly consistent

with upper winds increasing and the effects of dry air becoming more

pronounced.  

Steering is being governed by the mid-level westerlies to the north of the low

and movement is forecast to be slowly to the northeast for the next 24 hours. A

very weak mid-level low to the south intensifies to the southwest of 06U during

Friday and the system begins to move to the east southeast under this

influence. Movement is then expected to be slow as the system weakens. From

next Monday or Tuesday the shallow remnant low will most likely steer towards

the west northwest due to a low level ridge to the south. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

==

The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1930 UTC.

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1904 UTC 07/02/2024
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 160.2E
Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km)
Movement Towards: east northeast (066 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm (445 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  08/0000: 15.6S 161.0E:     055 (100):  030  (055):  999
+12:  08/0600: 15.8S 161.9E:     065 (120):  030  (055):  999
+18:  08/1200: 16.1S 162.7E:     070 (130):  030  (055):  999
+24:  08/1800: 16.6S 163.3E:     075 (140):  035  (065):  997
+36:  09/0600: 17.4S 164.3E:     085 (155):  040  (075):  993
+48:  09/1800: 18.2S 165.5E:     105 (195):  050  (095):  986
+60:  10/0600: 18.8S 166.9E:     140 (260):  050  (095):  982
+72:  10/1800: 19.2S 168.1E:     165 (305):  045  (085):  988
+96:  11/1800: 19.3S 169.7E:     210 (395):  035  (065):  994
+120: 12/1800: 19.2S 169.4E:     285 (525):  030  (055):  998
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 06U is struggling to develop under the influence of moderate
shear. 

The low has been located using animated IR imagery and an AMSR2 pass from
1503UTC. There is moderate to poor confidence in the position, with the low
level centre poorly defined on microwave. Curved banding has been analysed with
a wrap of about 0.4, however the curvature is not tightly wrapped around the
centre but instead orientates along a trough to the north. A shear pattern
would have yielded a high DT at 1800UTC, but since then the convection has
become more separated and so may give a more reasonable value going forward. DT
is 2.5 based on curved band, with MET and PAT at 2.0. FT/CI held at 2.0 based
on MET/PAT. There is currently no objective intensity guidance available.
Current intensity is set at 30 knots based on the AMSR2 wind analysis at
1503UTC. 

The environment is moderately favourable for development with 06U located over
warm SSTs with good upper divergence. However, recent shear diagnostics show
stronger NW shear developing over the system, which is consistent with
appearance on satellite. Another limiting factor seems to have been the very
dry air surrounding the system, coupled with strong middle level westerlies
just to the north of the centre. Models indicate some development is possible
in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper trough to the southwest increases
outflow aloft, however this could be countered by dry air entrainment that may
come from the mid-level westerlies and any continuing shear influences. This
window for development may be short lived as from Saturday models are broadly
consistent with upper winds increasing and the effects of dry air becoming more
pronounced.  

Steering is being governed by the mid-level westerlies to the north of the low
and movement is forecast to be slowly to the east for the next 24 hours. A very
weak mid-level low to the south intensifies to the southwest of 06U during
Friday and the system begins to move more southeast under this influence.
Movement is then expected to be slow as the system weakens. From next Monday or
Tuesday the shallow remnant low will most likely steer towards the west
northwest due to a low level ridge to the south. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for this system unless it moves back into the Australian Area of Responsibility.