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WTPS21 PGTW 072030 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 159.9E TO 17.5S 165.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 071830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 161.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 159.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 161.0E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1622Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C, MODERATE OUTFLOW AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) ALL POINTING POSITIVELY TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ANTICIPATING THE SYSTEM CURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TAU 36. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION TO APPROXIMATELY 30-40KTS BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY 082030Z. // NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/072030Z-082030ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZFEB2024// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071352ZFEB2024// REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072051ZFEB2024// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 07FEB24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 152.7W, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 070900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AT 07FEB24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 165.6W, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS32 PGTW 071500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 159.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 161.0E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1622Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C, MODERATE OUTFLOW AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) ALL POINTING POSITIVELY TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ANTICIPATING THE SYSTEM CURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TAU 36. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION TO APPROXIMATELY 30-40KTS BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-08 06:00:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS13 NFFN 080000 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 080158 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 162.4E AT 080000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. . DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 15.8S 164.3E MOV ESE AT KT WITH 06 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 16.5S 165.6E MOV ESE AT KT WITH 07 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 17.2S 166.7E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 17.8S 168.2E MOV ESE AT 02 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080800 UTC.
WTPS13 NFFN 080000 CCA TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 080220 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 162.4E AT 080000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. . DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 15.8S 164.3E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 16.5S 165.6E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 17.2S 166.7E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 17.8S 168.2E MOV ESE AT 02 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080800 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
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Accuracy (km)0hr 12 am February 8 tropical low 15.4S 162.4E 110 +6hr 6 am February 8 1 15.4S 163.3E 140 +12hr 12 pm February 8 1 15.8S 164.3E 165 +18hr 6 pm February 8 2 16.2S 165.1E 195 +24hr 12 am February 9 2 16.5S 165.6E 220 +36hr 12 pm February 9 2 17.2S 166.7E 285 +48hr 12 am February 10 2 17.8S 168.2E 345 +60hr 12 pm February 10 2 18.2S 170.0E 430 +72hr 12 am February 11 1 18.5S 171.5E 520 最后于 2024-02-08 10:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072021ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 162.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 162.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.3S 164.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.2S 165.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.0S 166.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.6S 168.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 19.4S 171.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.6S 172.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 19.7S 170.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 163.0E. 08FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 072030).// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.9S 162.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 350 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) REVEALING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 072212Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE REVEALED A FAIRLY ELONGATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH HIGHEST OBSERVED WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF TC 12P. A 072208Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE CAPTURED FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION 60NM NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY AND MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY DATA, AS WELL AS THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH-SOUTWEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ARE ANTICIPATED TO ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, HIGH (ABOVE 30 KTS) VWS AND DEGRADATION OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL INTENSITY DOWNTREND AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD TO TAU 96. EXPERIENCING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER STR TO THE SOUTHEAST AT TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN SHARPLY TO A WESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 12P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. THE TRACK CONSENSUS DISPLAYS GOOD AGREEMENT BY TAU 72, WITH A NEGLIGIBLE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AND A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 98NM. A GRADUAL RISE IN INTENSITY TO A PEAK OF NEAR 50KTS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 IS OBSERVED IN MULTIPLE GLOBAL MODELS. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 96, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STR BUILDS AHEAD OF TC 12P PROJECTED TRACK AND RECURVES THE TC NEAR TAU 96, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD AND MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. THOUGH GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING INTENSITY, THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN OTHER MEMBERS (STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL AND COUPLED MODELS), WITH A MAX INTENSITY SPREAD OF 55KTS EVIDENT AT TAU 72, CONTRIBUTING TO AN INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF LOW FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-08 10:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS33 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 163.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 163.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.5S 165.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.2S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.8S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.4S 169.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 18.6S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.0S 173.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.3S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 163.9E. 08FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) FINAL WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.8S 163.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 298 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) HAS RAPIDLY COME TOGETHER OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THOUGH IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND IS STILL STRUGGLING TO AXISYMMETRIZE. ANIMATED COMBINATION IMAGERY (MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED) SHOWS THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION ORIENTED ON A ROUGHLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OBSCURED, ASSESSED TO BE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS A BLOOM OF SYMMETRICAL DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH LOOKS IMPRESSIVE WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -97C AND NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES, THOUGH IT REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. A 080652Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE WEAK BANDING EFFECTS IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST, WITH A FALSE MICROWAVE EYE PRESENT IN THE 36GHZ CHANNEL, AND THE EXPOSED LLCC ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, EVEN WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE AREAS OF ROTATION BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER, ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUTLINED BELOW. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EXTENSIVE DEEP-LAYER NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE NORTH. ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, AND WARM SSTS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY PERSISTENT MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL ENTRENCHED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN SIDE OF A NER CENTERED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 080530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST- SOUTHEAST ALONG THE STRONG AND EXTENSIVE NER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AT LEAST THROUGH TAU 72. EFFECTIVE DEEP- LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE LIKELY A BIT LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ASSESSED DUE TO THE TRACK BEING IN PERFECT PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR. HOWEVER MID-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED, BASED ON GFS AND ECMWF MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS HIGHER MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS, THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME WORK TO DO TO SYMMETRIZE THE VORTEX AND THIS WILL LIMIT ANY REALISTIC CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, UP TO 50 KNOTS, BUT THEN THE STRONG SHEAR RETURNS AND THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 72, TC 12P WILL MOVE INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BY THE END OF FORECAST, WHILE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. A TURN EITHER TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE STEERING BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FULL DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD IS EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE PACKAGE BEGINS TO SHOW INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS BREAKING OFF FROM THE PACK BY TAU 48, WITH THE GFS FLATTENING OUT TO A DUE EASTWARD TRACK AFTER THIS POINT, WHILE THE NAVGEM DIVES MORE SOUTHWARD, LEADING TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 185NM BY TAU 72. AT THIS POINT THINGS GET REALLY SQUIRRELLY, WITH EACH MEMBER OF THE CONSENSUS GOING OFF TO DIFFERENT POINTS OF THE COMPASS; GFS ENSEMBLE NORTHWEST, GFS NORTHEAST, GALWEM EAST, NAVGEM QUASI-STATIONARY, ECMWF WEST, AND UKMET SOUTHWEST. SPREAD AT THIS POINT IS A MEANINGLESS METRIC, BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY INCREASES SHARPLY. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST, THOUGH SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST AFTER TAU 72 IS LOW. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE SHIPS (GFS) BEING EXCEPTIONALLY AGGRESSIVE AND FAR OUTPACING ALL THE OTHERS EXCEPT FOR THE RIPA, RI45, AND RI25 WHICH ARE ALSO TRIGGERED, THOUGH BASED ON THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, THESE SEEM UNREALISTIC AT BEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OR WEAKENING. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE COAMPS-TC (GFS) FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-08 18:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS13 NFFN 081200 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 081416 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 164.1E AT 081200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN OF DT = 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON PT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 16.5S 165.3E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 17.2S 166.5E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 17.7S 167.9E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 18.2S 169.6E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 082000 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 pm February 8 tropical low 15.8S 164.1E 110 +6hr 6 pm February 8 1 16.1S 164.8E 140 +12hr 12 am February 9 2 16.5S 165.3E 165 +18hr 6 am February 9 2 16.8S 165.8E 195 +24hr 12 pm February 9 2 17.2S 166.5E 220 +36hr 12 am February 10 2 17.7S 167.9E 280 +48hr 12 pm February 10 2 18.2S 169.6E 345 +60hr 12 am February 11 2 18.7S 171.2E 430 +72hr 12 pm February 11 1 19.0S 172.4E 520 最后于 2024-02-09 04:55:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 164.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 164.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.7S 165.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.5S 166.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.1S 168.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.5S 170.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.9S 172.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 18.9S 174.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.4S 173.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 164.5E. 08FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) FINAL WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) FINAL WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW). // NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 164.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 257 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SO FAR HAS FAILED TO BUILD A VERTICALLY ALIGNED VORTEX. THE LATEST ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. IF ANYTHING, THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OUT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOT OFF THE PRESS, A 081248Z GMI MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE TWO CENTERS OF ROTATION OR VORTICITY WITHIN THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER. FOR NOW, THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED AS LOW CONFIDENCE AND REANALYSIS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS LIKELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A GENEROUS 40 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON PERSISTENCE AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIXES NOTED BELOW. THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS REVEALS 20 KNOTS OF NORTHWEST SHEAR, AND THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN HIGHER VALUES IN THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT AMV PICTURE SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SPLITTING AS IT APPROACHES THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING A HINT OF A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY THE LACK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT BEST, WITH THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS ONLY WEAKLY OFFSETTING THE OTHER NEGATIVE FACTORS NOTED ABOVE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS MOVING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG NER TO THE NORTH. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 081130Z CIMSS SATCON: 46 KNOTS AT 081230Z CIMSS DPRINT: 41 KNOTS AT 081200Z CIMSS DMINT: 41 KNOTS AT 081243Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: HIGHER MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE NER ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AFTER TAU 72 AS THE NER RECEDES EASTWARD AND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TRAPPED BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. IN THE NEAR-TERM, AS LONG AS THE VORTEX REMAINS MISALIGNED AND THE LLCC REMAINS HIGHLY ELONGATED, THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION AND THE SYSTEM MAY IN FACT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO MAINTAIN AT 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND BURST (WWB) WHICH WILL PUSH ELEVATED WINDS AND VORTICITY INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH. DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST SHEAR, THE VORTEX IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MISALIGNED AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART. AFTER TAU 24, SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KNOTS, BEFORE SHEAR PICKS UP ONCE AGAIN AND DRIVES A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IT WEAKENS TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY TAU 120, TC 12P BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 120 UNDER THE COMPETING LOW-LEVEL STEERING INFLUENCES. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING STEADILY TO 140NM. THE LATEST RUN SHOWS ECMWF AND NAVGEM MARKING THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT AFTER TAU 48 AND MARK THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD PICKS UP QUICKLY AFTER TAU 48, WITH THE GALWEM FAR OUTPACING ALL THE OTHER MEMBERS, REACHING FIJI BY TAU 72, WHILE ECMWF HOLDS BACK AND BARELY CROSSES THE VANUATU ISLANDS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 72, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AFTER TAU 72, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE DRASTICALLY, WITH ROUGHLY A 50-50 SPLIT IN THE MEMBERS TURNING NORTH OR TURNING SOUTH. THE GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN TURN NORTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE, NAVGEM, AND UKMET MODELS TURN SOUTHWARD. BY TAU 120, ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT GALWEM SHOWS THE LLCC TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD. IN LIGHT OF THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY AND HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL PACKAGE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST AFTER TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHIPS (NAVGEM), IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A SINUSOIDAL INTENSITY TREND, MOVING ABOVE AND BELOW THE MEAN OVER TIME. THE JTWC FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE GUIDANCE, GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BUT BELOW, THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-09 04:55:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：