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WTPS33 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 163.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 163.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.5S 165.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.2S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.8S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.4S 169.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 18.6S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.0S 173.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.3S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 163.9E. 08FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) FINAL WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.8S 163.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 298 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) HAS RAPIDLY COME TOGETHER OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THOUGH IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND IS STILL STRUGGLING TO AXISYMMETRIZE. ANIMATED COMBINATION IMAGERY (MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED) SHOWS THE WESTERN PORTION OF AN ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION ORIENTED ON A ROUGHLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OBSCURED, ASSESSED TO BE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS A BLOOM OF SYMMETRICAL DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH LOOKS IMPRESSIVE WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -97C AND NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES, THOUGH IT REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. A 080652Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE WEAK BANDING EFFECTS IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST, WITH A FALSE MICROWAVE EYE PRESENT IN THE 36GHZ CHANNEL, AND THE EXPOSED LLCC ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, EVEN WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE AREAS OF ROTATION BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER, ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUTLINED BELOW. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EXTENSIVE DEEP-LAYER NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE NORTH. ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VWS, AND WARM SSTS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY PERSISTENT MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL ENTRENCHED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN SIDE OF A NER CENTERED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 080530Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST- SOUTHEAST ALONG THE STRONG AND EXTENSIVE NER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AT LEAST THROUGH TAU 72. EFFECTIVE DEEP- LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE LIKELY A BIT LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ASSESSED DUE TO THE TRACK BEING IN PERFECT PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR. HOWEVER MID-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED, BASED ON GFS AND ECMWF MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS HIGHER MID-LEVEL SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THUS, THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME WORK TO DO TO SYMMETRIZE THE VORTEX AND THIS WILL LIMIT ANY REALISTIC CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, UP TO 50 KNOTS, BUT THEN THE STRONG SHEAR RETURNS AND THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 72, TC 12P WILL MOVE INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BY THE END OF FORECAST, WHILE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. A TURN EITHER TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS THE STEERING BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FULL DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD IS EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE PACKAGE BEGINS TO SHOW INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS BREAKING OFF FROM THE PACK BY TAU 48, WITH THE GFS FLATTENING OUT TO A DUE EASTWARD TRACK AFTER THIS POINT, WHILE THE NAVGEM DIVES MORE SOUTHWARD, LEADING TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 185NM BY TAU 72. AT THIS POINT THINGS GET REALLY SQUIRRELLY, WITH EACH MEMBER OF THE CONSENSUS GOING OFF TO DIFFERENT POINTS OF THE COMPASS; GFS ENSEMBLE NORTHWEST, GFS NORTHEAST, GALWEM EAST, NAVGEM QUASI-STATIONARY, ECMWF WEST, AND UKMET SOUTHWEST. SPREAD AT THIS POINT IS A MEANINGLESS METRIC, BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY INCREASES SHARPLY. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST, THOUGH SLOWS DOWN AND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST AFTER TAU 72 IS LOW. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH THE SHIPS (GFS) BEING EXCEPTIONALLY AGGRESSIVE AND FAR OUTPACING ALL THE OTHERS EXCEPT FOR THE RIPA, RI45, AND RI25 WHICH ARE ALSO TRIGGERED, THOUGH BASED ON THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT, THESE SEEM UNREALISTIC AT BEST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OR WEAKENING. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE COAMPS-TC (GFS) FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-08 18:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS13 NFFN 081200 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 081416 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 164.1E AT 081200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN OF DT = 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON PT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 16.5S 165.3E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 17.2S 166.5E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 17.7S 167.9E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 18.2S 169.6E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 082000 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 pm February 8 tropical low 15.8S 164.1E 110 +6hr 6 pm February 8 1 16.1S 164.8E 140 +12hr 12 am February 9 2 16.5S 165.3E 165 +18hr 6 am February 9 2 16.8S 165.8E 195 +24hr 12 pm February 9 2 17.2S 166.5E 220 +36hr 12 am February 10 2 17.7S 167.9E 280 +48hr 12 pm February 10 2 18.2S 169.6E 345 +60hr 12 am February 11 2 18.7S 171.2E 430 +72hr 12 pm February 11 1 19.0S 172.4E 520 最后于 2024-02-09 04:55:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 164.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 164.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.7S 165.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.5S 166.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.1S 168.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.5S 170.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.9S 172.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 18.9S 174.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.4S 173.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 164.5E. 08FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) FINAL WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) FINAL WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW). // NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 164.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 257 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SO FAR HAS FAILED TO BUILD A VERTICALLY ALIGNED VORTEX. THE LATEST ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. IF ANYTHING, THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED AND STRETCHED OUT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOT OFF THE PRESS, A 081248Z GMI MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE TWO CENTERS OF ROTATION OR VORTICITY WITHIN THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER. FOR NOW, THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED AS LOW CONFIDENCE AND REANALYSIS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS LIKELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A GENEROUS 40 KNOTS BASED PRIMARILY ON PERSISTENCE AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIXES NOTED BELOW. THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS REVEALS 20 KNOTS OF NORTHWEST SHEAR, AND THE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN HIGHER VALUES IN THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER THE MOST RECENT AMV PICTURE SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SPLITTING AS IT APPROACHES THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING A HINT OF A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY THE LACK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT BEST, WITH THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS ONLY WEAKLY OFFSETTING THE OTHER NEGATIVE FACTORS NOTED ABOVE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS MOVING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG NER TO THE NORTH. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS PHFO: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 081130Z CIMSS SATCON: 46 KNOTS AT 081230Z CIMSS DPRINT: 41 KNOTS AT 081200Z CIMSS DMINT: 41 KNOTS AT 081243Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: HIGHER MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE NER ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AFTER TAU 72 AS THE NER RECEDES EASTWARD AND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, TRAPPED BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. IN THE NEAR-TERM, AS LONG AS THE VORTEX REMAINS MISALIGNED AND THE LLCC REMAINS HIGHLY ELONGATED, THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION AND THE SYSTEM MAY IN FACT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO MAINTAIN AT 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND BURST (WWB) WHICH WILL PUSH ELEVATED WINDS AND VORTICITY INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH. DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST SHEAR, THE VORTEX IS LIKELY TO REMAIN MISALIGNED AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOST PART. AFTER TAU 24, SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KNOTS, BEFORE SHEAR PICKS UP ONCE AGAIN AND DRIVES A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IT WEAKENS TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY TAU 120, TC 12P BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 120 UNDER THE COMPETING LOW-LEVEL STEERING INFLUENCES. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING STEADILY TO 140NM. THE LATEST RUN SHOWS ECMWF AND NAVGEM MARKING THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT AFTER TAU 48 AND MARK THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD PICKS UP QUICKLY AFTER TAU 48, WITH THE GALWEM FAR OUTPACING ALL THE OTHER MEMBERS, REACHING FIJI BY TAU 72, WHILE ECMWF HOLDS BACK AND BARELY CROSSES THE VANUATU ISLANDS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH TAU 72, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. AFTER TAU 72, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE DRASTICALLY, WITH ROUGHLY A 50-50 SPLIT IN THE MEMBERS TURNING NORTH OR TURNING SOUTH. THE GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN TURN NORTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE, NAVGEM, AND UKMET MODELS TURN SOUTHWARD. BY TAU 120, ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT GALWEM SHOWS THE LLCC TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD. IN LIGHT OF THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY AND HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL PACKAGE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST AFTER TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHIPS (NAVGEM), IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A SINUSOIDAL INTENSITY TREND, MOVING ABOVE AND BELOW THE MEAN OVER TIME. THE JTWC FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE GUIDANCE, GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BUT BELOW, THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-09 04:55:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS13 NFFN 082000 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 081956 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 164.6E AT 081800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE [NER] LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING EVIDENT ON THE SATELITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UP TO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 16.9S 165.6E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 17.5S 167.0E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 18.0S 168.8E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.4S 170.7E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 091400UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 pm February 8 tropical low 16.2S 164.6E 110 +6hr 12 am February 9 tropical low 16.6S 165.1E 140 +12hr 6 am February 9 1 16.9S 165.6E 165 +18hr 12 pm February 9 1 17.2S 166.1E 195 +24hr 6 pm February 9 2 17.5S 167.0E 220 +36hr 6 am February 10 2 18.0S 168.8E 280 +48hr 6 pm February 10 1 18.4S 170.7E 345 +60hr 6 am February 11 1 18.7S 172.0E 430 +72hr 6 pm February 11 1 18.8S 172.9E 520 -
WTPS33 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 163.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 163.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.4S 165.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.0S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.6S 168.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.9S 169.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.3S 172.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.4S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 17.8S 172.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 164.1E. 08FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) FINAL WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) FINAL WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW).// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 163.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 288 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) BECOME SLIGHTLY DECOUPLED FROM THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, AS INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS MAINTAINED ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF TC 12P, AS THE VORTEX REMAINS TILTED (SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT) FROM THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS. THE LATEST EIR CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRUGGLING AND SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, AS A WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE WRAPS AROUND THE ASSESSED BEST-TRACK POSITION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS MAINTAINED AS LOW CONFIDENCE AS CIRRUS BLOWOFF AND SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES OBSCURE THE ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION, WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA HAS BEEN EXTREMELY LIMITED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THE OBSERVABLE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC ON EIR AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 35-41 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS NFFN: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 081730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER NER DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW ITS MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WEAK STEERING FLOW BECOMES EVIDENT AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES SOMEWHAT QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120, WHILE CHECKMARKING TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH ITS DISSIPATION PHASE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 48, ENCROACHING DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE WEST WILL LIMIT ENHANCED INTENSIFICATION, KEEPING THE INTENSITY TC 12P RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH TAU 72 AT 45 KNOTS, AND STEADILY DECREASING TO 30 KNOTS INTO TAU 120 WHILE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER WATER. MODEL MEMBERS OF THE JTWC OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 12P WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 70NM BY TAU 48 AND DIVERGE UNIFORMLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UP TO 120NM. MODEL MEMBERS OF THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS SHOW A SUSTAINED FORECAST BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS INTO TAU 96, AND STEADILY DECAY TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 12P WILL TRACK GENERALLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 96, WHILE DIVERGING INTO TAU 120 WITH MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH AS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY DOMINATES THE AREA. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 120, ALL OF THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW A SLOW TRACK MOVEMENT WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND INCREASING TRACK SPREAD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY AFTER TAU 72 ARE LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-09 05:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS13 NFFN 090147 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 090147 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 165.3E AT 090000UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE ELONGATED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE [NER] LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 17.2S 166.5E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 17.9S 168.2E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 18.5S 170.0E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 19.0S 171.4E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090800UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 am February 9 tropical low 16.5S 165.3E 110 +6hr 6 am February 9 tropical low 16.9S 165.8E 140 +12hr 12 pm February 9 tropical low 17.2S 166.5E 165 +18hr 6 pm February 9 1 17.6S 167.3E 195 +24hr 12 am February 10 1 17.9S 168.2E 220 +36hr 12 pm February 10 1 18.5S 170.0E 280 +48hr 12 am February 11 1 19.0S 171.4E 345 +60hr 12 pm February 11 tropical low 19.5S 172.2E 430 +72hr 12 am February 12 tropical low 19.7S 172.4E 520 最后于 2024-02-09 09:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 165.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 165.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.1S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 17.7S 168.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.2S 170.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.9S 171.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.5S 173.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 19.5S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.1S 170.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 165.4E. 09FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.3S 165.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 202 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) EXHIBITING A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET EAST OF THE LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 082243Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE CAPTURED A VERY ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER OF NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH A SEMI-MAJOR AXIS OF APPROXIMATELY 124NM. THE HIGHEST WINDS OBSERVED (35KTS) APPEARED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT UP TO 140 NM OUTWARD FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFORMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NER TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 090000Z CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 090100Z CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 090130Z CIMSS DPRINT: 36KTS AT 090200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 FOLLOWING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN WARM (29-30C), A VERY TILTED VORTEX (EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT) RESTRAINS ANY SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TAU 18, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR TO TAU 72. NEAR TAU 72, A BUILDING STR AHEAD OF TRACK IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND ONTO A NEAR RECIPROCAL HEADING (WEST-NORTHWESTWARD) BY TAU 96. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR (RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 50 PCT) IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR NEAR TAU 72 WITH ENTRAINMENT INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120; LOW MOISTURE AND POOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT AFTER TAU 72 ARE THE PRIMARY FACTORS LEADING TO THE FORECASTED COMPLETE DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PATTERN OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND MODERATE AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK SPEED AND DIRECTION. BY TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 350NM AND A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 151NM. BOTH SPREADS DIVERGE FURTHER BY TAU 120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO IN FORECAST TRACK FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS EXHIBITING A CONTINUOUS WEAKENING TREND, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MODERATELY UNIFORM TO TAU 72 (15 KTS SPREAD), AND THEN DIVERGES THEREAFTER TO TAU 120 (35 KTS SPREAD). FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-09 10:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS13 NFFN 090800 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 090803 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 165.8E AT 090600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMSGOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE ELONGATED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE [NER] LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 17.5S 167.3E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 18.1S 169.1E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.7S 171.1E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 19.3S 172.8E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 091400UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 am February 9 tropical low 16.8S 165.8E 110 +6hr 12 pm February 9 tropical low 17.2S 166.4E 140 +12hr 6 pm February 9 1 17.5S 167.3E 165 +18hr 12 am February 10 1 17.8S 168.1E 195 +24hr 6 am February 10 1 18.1S 169.1E 220 +36hr 6 pm February 10 1 18.7S 171.1E 280 +48hr 6 am February 11 1 19.3S 172.8E 345 +60hr 6 pm February 11 tropical low 19.9S 174.1E 430 +72hr 6 am February 12 tropical low 20.3S 175.1E 520 最后于 2024-02-09 16:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 165.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 165.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.7S 166.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.3S 168.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.8S 170.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 19.1S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.4S 173.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 00 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.4S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 165.8E. 09FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. // NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.9S 165.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 173 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BUT MAINTAINS MINIMAL TC STRENGTH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS HIGHLY ELONGATED, STRETCHED OUT ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. THIS CONFIGURATION OF THE LLCC WAS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER ASCAT-B AND -C PASSES FROM 082151Z AND 082243Z RESPECTIVELY. BOTH SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC LLCC WITH WINDS BARELY EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS. LATER SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 090443Z SHOWS A SIMILAR WIND FIELD SETUP, BUT SHOWS A MORE DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LATEST ANIMATED MSI SHOWED HINTS OF THE LLCC STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE JUST EAST OF AN AREA OF EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WHICH KICKED OFF AROUND 0500Z. IF THE LLCC CAN SUCCESSFULLY MOVE UNDER THIS CONVECTION, THEN THINGS WILL GET INTERESTING. IN THE MEANTIME, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH PERSISTENT, BUT WEAKENING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OFFSETTING WARM SSTS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON TRACKING OF THE LLCC IN HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A LOW EMISSIVITY REGION IN A 090443Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUTLINED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 090700Z CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 090530Z CIMSS DPRINT: 33 KTS AT 090600Z CIMSS DMINT: 33 KTS AT 090456Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FIRST 48-60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG NER TO THE NORTHEAST. AROUND TAU 48, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY PINCHES OFF INTO A SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR 20S 170W. THIS PROCESS OF STR DEVELOPMENT WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK TC 12P FROM TRAVELING FURTHER EAST AFTER TAU 72. THE FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AFTER TAU 48 AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM CAN BARELY BE CATEGORIZED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS SET TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH A REDUCTION IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND A SLIGHT MID-LEVEL MOISTENING ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE THE VORTEX A BIT AND THE FIRST HINTS OF THIS MAY BE BEING SEEN NOW. IF THIS PROCESS DOES IN FACT OCCUR AS EXPECTED, THEN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION UP TO 40 KNOTS IS FORECAST, WITH THIS INTENSITY PERSISTING THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. INCREASING SHEAR AND ESPECIALLY A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR EXPECTED AFTER TAU 48, WILL RAPIDLY SMOTHER WHAT REMAINS OF THE SYSTEM AND MARK THE ONSET OF RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION. DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IS FORECAST NO LATER THAN TAU 96 AND COULD PLAUSIBLY OCCUR AS EARLY AS TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS CONCURRING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK STEADILY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS MINIMAL THROUGH TAU 48, THOUGH ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BEGINS TO REAR ITS UGLY HEAD EVEN AT THIS EARLY POINT IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE NAVGEM PULLING AWAY AHEAD OF THE PACK WHILE THE GFS LAGS BEHIND. BY TAU 72, THE WHEELS FALL OFF THIS WAGON AND THE MODELS START TO WIDELY DIVERGE IN THEIR TRACK SOLUTIONS, WITH A TRIPLE OPTION SETTING UP. THE NAVGEM AND GALWEM PUSH THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT AHEAD TO A POSITION SOUTH OF FIJI, THE US MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM NORTH THEN NORTHWEST AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. THE RESULTING MODEL CONFIGURATION CAN BEST BE DESCRIBED AS A DRAWN BOW WITH THE ARROW POINTING STRAIGHT AHEAD, INTRODUCING SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AND LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 48. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WIDE DISPARITY, WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWING STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO GREATER THAN 80 KNOTS WHILE THE HAFS-A SHOWS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE COAMPS-TC (BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS) SEEM THE MOST REALISTIC, IN SHOWING A MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. BUT WITH SUCH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-09 16:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS13 NFFN 091200 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 091312 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 166.0E AT 091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMSGOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE ELONGATED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A mODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE [NER] LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5 MET AGREEING AND PT IS 2.0. FT BASED ON PT THUS YIELDS T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 17.9S 167.9E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 18.5S 170.1E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 18.9S 172.3E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 19.3S 174.1E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED 092000 AROUND UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 pm February 9 tropical low 17.2S 166.0E 110 +6hr 6 pm February 9 tropical low 17.6S 166.8E 140 +12hr 12 am February 10 1 17.9S 167.9E 165 +18hr 6 am February 10 1 18.2S 169.0E 195 +24hr 12 pm February 10 1 18.5S 170.1E 220 +36hr 12 am February 11 1 18.9S 172.3E 280 +48hr 12 pm February 11 1 19.3S 174.1E 345 +60hr 12 am February 12 tropical low 19.8S 175.2E 430 +72hr 12 pm February 12 tropical low 20.2S 175.6E 520