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WTPS13 NFFN 082000 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 081956 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 164.6E AT 081800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE [NER] LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING EVIDENT ON THE SATELITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UP TO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 16.9S 165.6E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 17.5S 167.0E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 18.0S 168.8E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.4S 170.7E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 091400UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 pm February 8 tropical low 16.2S 164.6E 110 +6hr 12 am February 9 tropical low 16.6S 165.1E 140 +12hr 6 am February 9 1 16.9S 165.6E 165 +18hr 12 pm February 9 1 17.2S 166.1E 195 +24hr 6 pm February 9 2 17.5S 167.0E 220 +36hr 6 am February 10 2 18.0S 168.8E 280 +48hr 6 pm February 10 1 18.4S 170.7E 345 +60hr 6 am February 11 1 18.7S 172.0E 430 +72hr 6 pm February 11 1 18.8S 172.9E 520 -
WTPS33 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 163.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 090 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 163.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.4S 165.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.0S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.6S 168.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.9S 169.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.3S 172.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.4S 172.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 17.8S 172.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 164.1E. 08FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) FINAL WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) FINAL WARNING (WTPS32 PGTW).// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 163.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 288 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) BECOME SLIGHTLY DECOUPLED FROM THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, AS INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED SLOWLY TO THE EAST OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS MAINTAINED ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF TC 12P, AS THE VORTEX REMAINS TILTED (SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT) FROM THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS. THE LATEST EIR CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRUGGLING AND SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH AN ELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC, AS A WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE WRAPS AROUND THE ASSESSED BEST-TRACK POSITION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS MAINTAINED AS LOW CONFIDENCE AS CIRRUS BLOWOFF AND SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES OBSCURE THE ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION, WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA HAS BEEN EXTREMELY LIMITED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF THE OBSERVABLE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC ON EIR AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 35-41 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS NFFN: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 081730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER NER DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH. NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW ITS MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WEAK STEERING FLOW BECOMES EVIDENT AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES SOMEWHAT QUASI-STATIONARY BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120, WHILE CHECKMARKING TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH ITS DISSIPATION PHASE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 48, ENCROACHING DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE WEST WILL LIMIT ENHANCED INTENSIFICATION, KEEPING THE INTENSITY TC 12P RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH TAU 72 AT 45 KNOTS, AND STEADILY DECREASING TO 30 KNOTS INTO TAU 120 WHILE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OVER WATER. MODEL MEMBERS OF THE JTWC OBJECTIVE AIDS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 12P WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 70NM BY TAU 48 AND DIVERGE UNIFORMLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UP TO 120NM. MODEL MEMBERS OF THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS SHOW A SUSTAINED FORECAST BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS INTO TAU 96, AND STEADILY DECAY TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 12P WILL TRACK GENERALLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 96, WHILE DIVERGING INTO TAU 120 WITH MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH AS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY DOMINATES THE AREA. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 120, ALL OF THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SHOW A SLOW TRACK MOVEMENT WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND INCREASING TRACK SPREAD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY AFTER TAU 72 ARE LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-09 05:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS13 NFFN 090147 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 090147 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 165.3E AT 090000UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE ELONGATED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE [NER] LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 17.2S 166.5E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 17.9S 168.2E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 18.5S 170.0E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 19.0S 171.4E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090800UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 am February 9 tropical low 16.5S 165.3E 110 +6hr 6 am February 9 tropical low 16.9S 165.8E 140 +12hr 12 pm February 9 tropical low 17.2S 166.5E 165 +18hr 6 pm February 9 1 17.6S 167.3E 195 +24hr 12 am February 10 1 17.9S 168.2E 220 +36hr 12 pm February 10 1 18.5S 170.0E 280 +48hr 12 am February 11 1 19.0S 171.4E 345 +60hr 12 pm February 11 tropical low 19.5S 172.2E 430 +72hr 12 am February 12 tropical low 19.7S 172.4E 520 最后于 2024-02-09 09:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS33 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 165.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 165.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.1S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 17.7S 168.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.2S 170.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.9S 171.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.5S 173.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 19.5S 172.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.1S 170.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 165.4E. 09FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 202NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.3S 165.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 202 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) EXHIBITING A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET EAST OF THE LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 082243Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE CAPTURED A VERY ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER OF NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH A SEMI-MAJOR AXIS OF APPROXIMATELY 124NM. THE HIGHEST WINDS OBSERVED (35KTS) APPEARED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT UP TO 140 NM OUTWARD FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFORMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NER TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 090000Z CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 090100Z CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 090130Z CIMSS DPRINT: 36KTS AT 090200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 FOLLOWING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN WARM (29-30C), A VERY TILTED VORTEX (EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT) RESTRAINS ANY SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH TAU 18, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR TO TAU 72. NEAR TAU 72, A BUILDING STR AHEAD OF TRACK IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND ONTO A NEAR RECIPROCAL HEADING (WEST-NORTHWESTWARD) BY TAU 96. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR (RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 50 PCT) IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR NEAR TAU 72 WITH ENTRAINMENT INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120; LOW MOISTURE AND POOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT AFTER TAU 72 ARE THE PRIMARY FACTORS LEADING TO THE FORECASTED COMPLETE DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PATTERN OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND MODERATE AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK SPEED AND DIRECTION. BY TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS AN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF 350NM AND A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 151NM. BOTH SPREADS DIVERGE FURTHER BY TAU 120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO IN FORECAST TRACK FROM TAU 72 TO TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS EXHIBITING A CONTINUOUS WEAKENING TREND, INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MODERATELY UNIFORM TO TAU 72 (15 KTS SPREAD), AND THEN DIVERGES THEREAFTER TO TAU 120 (35 KTS SPREAD). FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-09 10:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：