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WTPS33 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 166.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 166.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 17.6S 168.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.2S 170.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.6S 172.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.9S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 19.3S 175.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 166.7E. 09FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. // NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.1S 166.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 120 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY WEAK SYSTEM, WITH SCATTERED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING IN MULTIPLE SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, AND A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC VORTEX. A 091203Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION (LER), DENOTING THE OUTLINES OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THIS LER, CLOSE TO THE AREA OF SHARPEST TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES. CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS LOW HOWEVER, DUE TO THE OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LOW-CLOUD FIELD IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) AND PROXY VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS GENEROUSLY HELD AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW AND A PARTIAL 091114Z ASCAT-C PASS WHICH SHOWED WINDS OF 30-34 KNOTS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION, SUGGESTING SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD BE LURKING CLOSER INTO THE CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST, WITH RELATIVELY MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, OFFSET BY THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN RIM OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 39 KTS AT 091200Z CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 091130Z CIMSS DPRINT: 33 KTS AT 091200ZZ FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE FORECAST IS HOWEVER TRUNCATED TO 72 HOURS WITH THIS FORECAST. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER NER CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DEEP TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE NER WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD, EVENTUALLY PINCHING OFF INTO A SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSIT WESTWARD. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STR WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF TC 12P, WITH THE SYSTEM ULTIMATELY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE STR MOVES INTO POSITION DUE EAST OF TC 12P. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE MODERATE SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN BY TAU 24, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. BUT THE PARTY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS SHEAR WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AND USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS AFTER TAU 36. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE INCREASED SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING, WITH TC 12P EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER NO LATER THAN TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: THROUGH TAU 36, DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DISPLAYING MINIMAL CROSS AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. BUT EVEN AS EARLY AS TAU 48, THE MODELS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIVERGE, BOTH IN TRACK SPEED AND IN TRACK DIRECTION. SIMILAR TO THE LAST MODEL RUN, THE MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO THREE CAMPS AFTER TAU 48. THE US MODELS SLOWLY TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH, THE GALWEM AND NAVGEM RACE THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT AHEAD TO A POSITION SOUTH OF FIJI WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. THE DIVERGENCE IS SUCH THAT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 175NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO OVER 350NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT, WITH THE SHIPS (NAVGEM AND GFS) CONTINUING TO SHOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A ROUGHLY STEADY-STATE INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HAFS-A BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-10 04:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS13 NFFN 091800 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 091943 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 166.5E AT 091800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMSGOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER SUPPOSED LLCC LAST 3 HOURS FROM A WEAKENING SYSTEM STRUGGLING IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANIZATION SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT 2.5 AND MET 3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 18.4S 168.4E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.8S 170.4E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 19.1S 172.2E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 19.4S 173.5E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 100200UTC.
WTPS13 NFFN 091800 CCA TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 092017 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 166.5E AT 091800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMSGOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER SUPPOSED LLCC LAST 3 HOURS FROM A WEAKENING SYSTEM STRUGGLING IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANIZATION SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT 2.5 AND MET 3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 18.4S 168.4E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.8S 170.4E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 19.1S 172.2E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 19.4S 173.5E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 100200UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 pm February 9 tropical low 17.9S 166.5E 110 +6hr 12 am February 10 1 18.1S 167.4E 30 +12hr 6 am February 10 1 18.4S 168.4E 55 +18hr 12 pm February 10 1 18.6S 169.4E 85 +24hr 6 pm February 10 1 18.8S 170.4E 110 +36hr 6 am February 11 1 19.1S 172.2E 170 +48hr 6 pm February 11 1 19.4S 173.5E 230 +60hr 6 am February 12 1 19.6S 174.1E 320 +72hr 6 pm February 12 1 19.6S 174.3E 405 -
WTPS33 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 167.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 167.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.8S 169.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.2S 171.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 18.6S 173.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.8S 174.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.3S 175.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 167.8E. 09FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 167.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 62 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P UNDERGOING RAPID EXPANSION OF CORE CONVECTION TYPICAL OF CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) DEVELOPMENT, WITH A SUDDEN SPREADING OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. PERSISTENT NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE EIR IMAGERY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CCC. A 091404Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AS SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPS INTO THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT VILA ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 997 MB. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE YET BROAD OUTFLOW, BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD, OFFSET BY THE VWS (15-20 KNOTS). DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLC, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS OF VANUATU, PERSISTENT VWS, AND UPPER-LEVEL DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED OFF THE AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON VANUATU. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 091730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: FRICTIONAL IMPACTS INFLUENCED BY VANUATU AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH TAU 72. AS A WEAK STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE EAST NEAR TAU 72, THE GENERAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION BEGINS TO STEADILY SLOW DOWN. AFTER TC 12P TRACKS PAST THE VANUATU ARCHIPELAGO, A SLIGHT INCREASE TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VWS AT 20-25 KNOTS (AFTER TAU 24) AND INCREASING DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT (AFTER TAU 48). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM AND GALWEM OBJECTIVE AIDS, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 90 NM AT TAU 48, DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 72 DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF TC 12P. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. HAFS-A IS EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO 30 KTS BY TAU 36 THUS THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE EARLIER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN最后于 2024-02-10 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 168.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 168.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.7S 171.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.1S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.4S 175.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.4S 176.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 169.1E. 10FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 36 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.1S 168.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 36 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE, WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ADDITIONALLY, MSI REVEALS FAIRLY SLOPPY LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD LLC WITH A WEAK CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 092222Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL IMAGE, WHICH PLACES THE CENTER NEAR THE ISLAND OF EPI, JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND OF EFATE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT VILA ON EFATE ISLAND ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHEASTERLY AT 08 KNOTS WITH A SLP VALUE OF 999 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS OBSERVED IN THIS ASCAT IMAGE WERE 35 KNOTS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS NFFN: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 092330Z CIMSS DPRINT: 36 KTS AT 100100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: FRICTIONAL IMPACTS INFLUENCED BY VANUATU AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH TAU 48. AS A WEAK STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE EAST NEAR TAU 48, THE GENERAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TC 12P TRACKS EAST OF THE VANUATU ARCHIPELAGO, A SLIGHT INCREASE TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 12. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VWS AT 20-25 KNOTS AND INCREASING DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 45 NM AT TAU 48. AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE EVOLVING STEERING RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE EAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MESOSCALE MODELS (HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (GFS)) SUPPORTING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN最后于 2024-02-10 10:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS13 NFFN 100600 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 100757 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 169.5E AT 100600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST ABOUT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUPPOSED LLCC. LLCC REMAINS ELONGATED. LLCC LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY FURTHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS DUE TO DECREASING SHEAR TENDENCY AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE EASTSOUTHEAST BY THE NER LOCATED TO THE NORTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.2S 172.0E MOV ESE AT 12KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 18.5S 173.9E MOV ESE AT 11KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 18.7S 175.6E MOV E AT 09KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 18.5S 176.4E MOV E AT 06KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 101400UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 am February 10 tropical low 17.6S 169.5E 110 +6hr 12 pm February 10 tropical low 18.0S 170.9E 140 +12hr 6 pm February 10 1 18.2S 172.0E 165 +18hr 12 am February 11 1 18.4S 172.9E 195 +24hr 6 am February 11 1 18.5S 173.9E 220 +36hr 6 pm February 11 1 18.7S 175.3E 280 +48hr 6 am February 12 tropical low 18.6S 176.3E 345 +60hr 6 pm February 12 tropical low 18.2S 176.6E 430 +72hr 6 am February 13 tropical low 17.8S 176.7E 520 最后于 2024-02-10 20:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 170.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 170.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.0S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 171.1E. 10FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED 80+ NM FROM A WEAK, RAGGED, AND EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 092222Z ASCAT PASS, SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW 1.5/2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE SHOWING A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW UNDER 25+ KNOTS OF RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS CAUSED THE RAPID DECAY AND WEAKENING TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 11 FEET.// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-10 16:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS13 NFFN 101800 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 101926 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 173.2E AT 101800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMSGOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUPPOSED LLCC. LLCC REMAINS ELONGATED AND IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY WHLIST MOVING INTO A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION FLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH NO INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP WITH DT 2.0 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 19.3S 176.1E MOV E AT 13 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 19.7S 178.4E MOV E AT 13 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 20.0S 179.8W MOV E AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 20.1S 178.6W MOV E AT 10 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THIS WILL BE THE LAST ISSUE FOR DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 pm February 10 tropical low 19.2S 173.2E 110 +6hr 12 am February 11 tropical low 19.3S 174.6E 30 +12hr 6 am February 11 tropical low 19.3S 176.1E 55 +18hr 12 pm February 11 tropical low 19.5S 177.3E 85 +24hr 6 pm February 11 tropical low 19.7S 178.4E 110 +36hr 6 am February 12 tropical low 20.0S 179.8W 170 +48hr 6 pm February 12 tropical low 20.1S 178.6W 230 +60hr 6 am February 13 tropical low 20.2S 177.8W 320 +72hr 6 pm February 13 tropical low 20.1S 177.1W 405 -
WTPS33 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 174.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 174.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 19.2S 175.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.7S 175.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 174.5E. 11FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC 12P, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.2S 174.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 248 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P DEVELOPED A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WHICH ALLOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO ALIGN VERTICALLY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (ULCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALED IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH, ALONG WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES, ALLOWED TC 12P TO STRENGTHEN BRIEFLY. AS A RESULT OF THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, DVORAK ESTIMATES INCREASED TO T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). A 102110Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THE DECISION TO REGENERATE TC 12P. FIRST, THE LLCC CLEARLY SHIFTED UNDER THE CORE CONVECTION, ALBEIT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SECOND, THE 25 KM PRODUCT SHOWED NUMEROUS 30-35 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME ISOLATED WINDS IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ASCAT AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. RECENT MSI SINCE ABOUT 102230Z, INDICATES THE LLCC IS DECOUPLING FROM THE ULCC AND STALLING, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION. RECENT EIR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CORE CONVECTION DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC AS IT SHEARS TO THE EAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE SETS AND REESTABLISHES THE ORIGINAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH THE INTENSITY REMAINING NEAR 35 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-35 KNOTS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MODEL DISCUSSION: IN GENERAL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK WITH A NORTHWARD TURN THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD SHARP TURN. THERE ARE, HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TURN. ECMWF SHARPLY TURNS THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE GFS SHOWS A BROADER TURN SKIRTING THE WESTERN COAST OF VITI LEVU NEAR TAU 48. SEVERAL MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF VITI LEVU BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT DECOUPLING. THE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (GFS) FORECASTS SUPPORT THE WEAKENING TREND WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-11 10:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 175.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 175.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.8S 176.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 175.3E. 11FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED 70+ NM SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A DEFINED BUT WEAK AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD LOWER THAN CONSTRAINED AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SIGNIFICANT 6-HR DETERIORATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW UNDER 25+ KNOTS OF RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CHARACTERIZED BY THE LLC AND THE MAIN CONVECTION MOVING AT TRAJECTORIES MORE THAN 60 DEGREES APART. SINCE THE INTENSITY HAS FALLEN TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 11 FEET.// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-11 15:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
