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WTPS13 NFFN 090800 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 090803 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 165.8E AT 090600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMSGOES EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE ELONGATED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE [NER] LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 17.5S 167.3E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 18.1S 169.1E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.7S 171.1E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 19.3S 172.8E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 091400UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 am February 9 tropical low 16.8S 165.8E 110 +6hr 12 pm February 9 tropical low 17.2S 166.4E 140 +12hr 6 pm February 9 1 17.5S 167.3E 165 +18hr 12 am February 10 1 17.8S 168.1E 195 +24hr 6 am February 10 1 18.1S 169.1E 220 +36hr 6 pm February 10 1 18.7S 171.1E 280 +48hr 6 am February 11 1 19.3S 172.8E 345 +60hr 6 pm February 11 tropical low 19.9S 174.1E 430 +72hr 6 am February 12 tropical low 20.3S 175.1E 520 最后于 2024-02-09 16:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 165.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 165.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.7S 166.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 18.3S 168.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.8S 170.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 19.1S 172.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.4S 173.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 00 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.4S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 165.8E. 09FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. // NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.9S 165.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 173 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BUT MAINTAINS MINIMAL TC STRENGTH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS HIGHLY ELONGATED, STRETCHED OUT ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS. THIS CONFIGURATION OF THE LLCC WAS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER ASCAT-B AND -C PASSES FROM 082151Z AND 082243Z RESPECTIVELY. BOTH SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC LLCC WITH WINDS BARELY EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS. LATER SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 090443Z SHOWS A SIMILAR WIND FIELD SETUP, BUT SHOWS A MORE DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LATEST ANIMATED MSI SHOWED HINTS OF THE LLCC STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE JUST EAST OF AN AREA OF EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WHICH KICKED OFF AROUND 0500Z. IF THE LLCC CAN SUCCESSFULLY MOVE UNDER THIS CONVECTION, THEN THINGS WILL GET INTERESTING. IN THE MEANTIME, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH PERSISTENT, BUT WEAKENING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OFFSETTING WARM SSTS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON TRACKING OF THE LLCC IN HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A LOW EMISSIVITY REGION IN A 090443Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OUTLINED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS ABRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 090700Z CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 090530Z CIMSS DPRINT: 33 KTS AT 090600Z CIMSS DMINT: 33 KTS AT 090456Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FIRST 48-60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG NER TO THE NORTHEAST. AROUND TAU 48, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY PINCHES OFF INTO A SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR 20S 170W. THIS PROCESS OF STR DEVELOPMENT WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK TC 12P FROM TRAVELING FURTHER EAST AFTER TAU 72. THE FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AFTER TAU 48 AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM CAN BARELY BE CATEGORIZED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS SET TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH A REDUCTION IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND A SLIGHT MID-LEVEL MOISTENING ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE THE VORTEX A BIT AND THE FIRST HINTS OF THIS MAY BE BEING SEEN NOW. IF THIS PROCESS DOES IN FACT OCCUR AS EXPECTED, THEN A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION UP TO 40 KNOTS IS FORECAST, WITH THIS INTENSITY PERSISTING THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. INCREASING SHEAR AND ESPECIALLY A SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR EXPECTED AFTER TAU 48, WILL RAPIDLY SMOTHER WHAT REMAINS OF THE SYSTEM AND MARK THE ONSET OF RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION. DISSIPATION BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IS FORECAST NO LATER THAN TAU 96 AND COULD PLAUSIBLY OCCUR AS EARLY AS TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODEST AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS CONCURRING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK STEADILY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS MINIMAL THROUGH TAU 48, THOUGH ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BEGINS TO REAR ITS UGLY HEAD EVEN AT THIS EARLY POINT IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE NAVGEM PULLING AWAY AHEAD OF THE PACK WHILE THE GFS LAGS BEHIND. BY TAU 72, THE WHEELS FALL OFF THIS WAGON AND THE MODELS START TO WIDELY DIVERGE IN THEIR TRACK SOLUTIONS, WITH A TRIPLE OPTION SETTING UP. THE NAVGEM AND GALWEM PUSH THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT AHEAD TO A POSITION SOUTH OF FIJI, THE US MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM NORTH THEN NORTHWEST AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. THE RESULTING MODEL CONFIGURATION CAN BEST BE DESCRIBED AS A DRAWN BOW WITH THE ARROW POINTING STRAIGHT AHEAD, INTRODUCING SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AND LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 48. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WIDE DISPARITY, WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWING STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO GREATER THAN 80 KNOTS WHILE THE HAFS-A SHOWS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE COAMPS-TC (BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS) SEEM THE MOST REALISTIC, IN SHOWING A MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. BUT WITH SUCH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS SET WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-09 16:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS13 NFFN 091200 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 091312 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 166.0E AT 091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMSGOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE ELONGATED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A mODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE [NER] LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ORGANIZATION HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5 MET AGREEING AND PT IS 2.0. FT BASED ON PT THUS YIELDS T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 17.9S 167.9E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 18.5S 170.1E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 18.9S 172.3E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 19.3S 174.1E MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED 092000 AROUND UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 pm February 9 tropical low 17.2S 166.0E 110 +6hr 6 pm February 9 tropical low 17.6S 166.8E 140 +12hr 12 am February 10 1 17.9S 167.9E 165 +18hr 6 am February 10 1 18.2S 169.0E 195 +24hr 12 pm February 10 1 18.5S 170.1E 220 +36hr 12 am February 11 1 18.9S 172.3E 280 +48hr 12 pm February 11 1 19.3S 174.1E 345 +60hr 12 am February 12 tropical low 19.8S 175.2E 430 +72hr 12 pm February 12 tropical low 20.2S 175.6E 520 -
WTPS33 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 166.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 166.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 17.6S 168.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 18.2S 170.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.6S 172.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.9S 173.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 19.3S 175.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 166.7E. 09FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. // NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.1S 166.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 120 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY WEAK SYSTEM, WITH SCATTERED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION FLARING IN MULTIPLE SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, AND A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC VORTEX. A 091203Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION (LER), DENOTING THE OUTLINES OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THIS LER, CLOSE TO THE AREA OF SHARPEST TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES. CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS LOW HOWEVER, DUE TO THE OBSCURED NATURE OF THE LOW-CLOUD FIELD IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) AND PROXY VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS GENEROUSLY HELD AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW AND A PARTIAL 091114Z ASCAT-C PASS WHICH SHOWED WINDS OF 30-34 KNOTS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION, SUGGESTING SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD BE LURKING CLOSER INTO THE CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE MARGINAL AT BEST, WITH RELATIVELY MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, OFFSET BY THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN RIM OF A DEEP-LAYER NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 39 KTS AT 091200Z CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 091130Z CIMSS DPRINT: 33 KTS AT 091200ZZ FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE FORECAST IS HOWEVER TRUNCATED TO 72 HOURS WITH THIS FORECAST. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER NER CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DEEP TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE NER WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD, EVENTUALLY PINCHING OFF INTO A SEPARATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSIT WESTWARD. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STR WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF TC 12P, WITH THE SYSTEM ULTIMATELY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE STR MOVES INTO POSITION DUE EAST OF TC 12P. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY STAGNANT. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE MODERATE SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN BY TAU 24, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. BUT THE PARTY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS SHEAR WILL INCREASE SHARPLY AND USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS AFTER TAU 36. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE INCREASED SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING, WITH TC 12P EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER NO LATER THAN TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: THROUGH TAU 36, DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, DISPLAYING MINIMAL CROSS AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. BUT EVEN AS EARLY AS TAU 48, THE MODELS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DIVERGE, BOTH IN TRACK SPEED AND IN TRACK DIRECTION. SIMILAR TO THE LAST MODEL RUN, THE MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO THREE CAMPS AFTER TAU 48. THE US MODELS SLOWLY TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH, THE GALWEM AND NAVGEM RACE THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT AHEAD TO A POSITION SOUTH OF FIJI WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. THE DIVERGENCE IS SUCH THAT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 175NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO OVER 350NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT, WITH THE SHIPS (NAVGEM AND GFS) CONTINUING TO SHOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A ROUGHLY STEADY-STATE INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HAFS-A BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-10 04:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS13 NFFN 091800 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 091943 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 166.5E AT 091800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMSGOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER SUPPOSED LLCC LAST 3 HOURS FROM A WEAKENING SYSTEM STRUGGLING IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANIZATION SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT 2.5 AND MET 3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 18.4S 168.4E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.8S 170.4E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 19.1S 172.2E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 19.4S 173.5E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 100200UTC.
WTPS13 NFFN 091800 CCA TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 092017 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 166.5E AT 091800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMSGOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLARED OVER SUPPOSED LLCC LAST 3 HOURS FROM A WEAKENING SYSTEM STRUGGLING IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANIZATION SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT 2.5 AND MET 3.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 18.4S 168.4E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.8S 170.4E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 19.1S 172.2E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 19.4S 173.5E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 100200UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 pm February 9 tropical low 17.9S 166.5E 110 +6hr 12 am February 10 1 18.1S 167.4E 30 +12hr 6 am February 10 1 18.4S 168.4E 55 +18hr 12 pm February 10 1 18.6S 169.4E 85 +24hr 6 pm February 10 1 18.8S 170.4E 110 +36hr 6 am February 11 1 19.1S 172.2E 170 +48hr 6 pm February 11 1 19.4S 173.5E 230 +60hr 6 am February 12 1 19.6S 174.1E 320 +72hr 6 pm February 12 1 19.6S 174.3E 405 -
WTPS33 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 167.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 167.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.8S 169.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 18.2S 171.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 18.6S 173.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.8S 174.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.3S 175.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 167.8E. 09FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 167.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 62 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P UNDERGOING RAPID EXPANSION OF CORE CONVECTION TYPICAL OF CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) DEVELOPMENT, WITH A SUDDEN SPREADING OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. PERSISTENT NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE EIR IMAGERY WITH A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CCC. A 091404Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AS SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPS INTO THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT VILA ARE SOUTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 997 MB. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE YET BROAD OUTFLOW, BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD, OFFSET BY THE VWS (15-20 KNOTS). DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLC, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS OF VANUATU, PERSISTENT VWS, AND UPPER-LEVEL DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED OFF THE AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON VANUATU. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 091730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: FRICTIONAL IMPACTS INFLUENCED BY VANUATU AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH TAU 72. AS A WEAK STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE EAST NEAR TAU 72, THE GENERAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION BEGINS TO STEADILY SLOW DOWN. AFTER TC 12P TRACKS PAST THE VANUATU ARCHIPELAGO, A SLIGHT INCREASE TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VWS AT 20-25 KNOTS (AFTER TAU 24) AND INCREASING DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT (AFTER TAU 48). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM AND GALWEM OBJECTIVE AIDS, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 90 NM AT TAU 48, DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 72 DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF TC 12P. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. HAFS-A IS EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO 30 KTS BY TAU 36 THUS THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE EARLIER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN最后于 2024-02-10 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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