97P INVEST 240218 1800 17.2S 171.8E SHEM 20 1002

ABPW10 PGTW 191130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191130Z-200600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.9S 
171.1W, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190831Z 
METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION) OBSCURED BY PERISTENT CONVECTION 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE AFORMENTIONED ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE 
HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS RESIDE IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN 
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
96P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO 
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT 
AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THOUGH GLOBAL 
DETERMINSITIC MODELS HAVE BEEN TOGGLING DEVELOPMENT FROM ONE MODEL 
RUN TO THE NEXT, GLOBAL NUMERICAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUTES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.9S 
173.3E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM EAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190612Z SMOS IMAGE 
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING 
CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 97P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD 
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
THOUGH GLOBAL DETERMINSITIC MODELS HAVE BEEN TOGGLING DEVELOPMENT 
FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT, GLOBAL NUMERICAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUTES TO CONSOLIDATE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREAS IN PARA. 2.B.(1) AND 
PARA. 2.B.(2).//
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ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.8S 170.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1S 169.6W, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM 
SOUTH OF NIUE. ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, 
WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH, 
WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVECTING ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. 
SIGNIFICANT DRY, STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS 
HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN WEAK 
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CONSEQUENTLY, A 2102340Z SSMIS 91 
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
SOUTHEASTERN QUADANT WITH A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS REVEAL 
AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, 
WITH GRADIENT-INDUCED WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.9S 174.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

98P INVEST 240225 0000 16.0S 172.7E SHEM 15 0

ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.1S 
171.3E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250219Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
SHOWS A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE 
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 242212Z 
PARTIAL ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT 
WINDS DISPLACED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE 
SYSTEM. THE CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMAGE DEPICTS A POINT SOURCE TO THE 
SOUTHEAST WITH DIFFLUENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE 
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS). THERE IS CURRENTLY AN 
EXTENSIVE SWATH OF DRY AIR ALIGNED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
SYSTEM, ENTRAINING INTO THE MID-LEVELS OF THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE CORE AS IT 
TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.1S 171.3E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN