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WTPS33 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 168.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 168.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.7S 171.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 18.1S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.4S 175.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.4S 176.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 169.1E. 10FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 36 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.1S 168.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 36 NM NORTH OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO CONSOLIDATE, WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ADDITIONALLY, MSI REVEALS FAIRLY SLOPPY LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD LLC WITH A WEAK CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 092222Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL IMAGE, WHICH PLACES THE CENTER NEAR THE ISLAND OF EPI, JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND OF EFATE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PORT VILA ON EFATE ISLAND ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHEASTERLY AT 08 KNOTS WITH A SLP VALUE OF 999 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS OBSERVED IN THIS ASCAT IMAGE WERE 35 KNOTS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS NFFN: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 092330Z CIMSS DPRINT: 36 KTS AT 100100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: FRICTIONAL IMPACTS INFLUENCED BY VANUATU AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH TAU 48. AS A WEAK STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE EAST NEAR TAU 48, THE GENERAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. AFTER TC 12P TRACKS EAST OF THE VANUATU ARCHIPELAGO, A SLIGHT INCREASE TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 12. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VWS AT 20-25 KNOTS AND INCREASING DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED BUILDING RIDGE, THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 45 NM AT TAU 48. AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE EVOLVING STEERING RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE EAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MESOSCALE MODELS (HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (GFS)) SUPPORTING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN最后于 2024-02-10 10:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS13 NFFN 100600 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 100757 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 169.5E AT 100600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST ABOUT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUPPOSED LLCC. LLCC REMAINS ELONGATED. LLCC LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY FURTHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS DUE TO DECREASING SHEAR TENDENCY AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE EASTSOUTHEAST BY THE NER LOCATED TO THE NORTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 18.2S 172.0E MOV ESE AT 12KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 18.5S 173.9E MOV ESE AT 11KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 18.7S 175.6E MOV E AT 09KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 18.5S 176.4E MOV E AT 06KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 101400UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 am February 10 tropical low 17.6S 169.5E 110 +6hr 12 pm February 10 tropical low 18.0S 170.9E 140 +12hr 6 pm February 10 1 18.2S 172.0E 165 +18hr 12 am February 11 1 18.4S 172.9E 195 +24hr 6 am February 11 1 18.5S 173.9E 220 +36hr 6 pm February 11 1 18.7S 175.3E 280 +48hr 6 am February 12 tropical low 18.6S 176.3E 345 +60hr 6 pm February 12 tropical low 18.2S 176.6E 430 +72hr 6 am February 13 tropical low 17.8S 176.7E 520 最后于 2024-02-10 20:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 100900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 16.7S 170.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 170.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.0S 173.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 171.1E. 10FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED 80+ NM FROM A WEAK, RAGGED, AND EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 092222Z ASCAT PASS, SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW 1.5/2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE SHOWING A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW UNDER 25+ KNOTS OF RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS CAUSED THE RAPID DECAY AND WEAKENING TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 11 FEET.// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-10 16:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS13 NFFN 101800 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 101926 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 173.2E AT 101800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMSGOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SUPPOSED LLCC. LLCC REMAINS ELONGATED AND IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY WHLIST MOVING INTO A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION FLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH NO INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP WITH DT 2.0 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 19.3S 176.1E MOV E AT 13 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 19.7S 178.4E MOV E AT 13 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 20.0S 179.8W MOV E AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 20.1S 178.6W MOV E AT 10 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THIS WILL BE THE LAST ISSUE FOR DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 pm February 10 tropical low 19.2S 173.2E 110 +6hr 12 am February 11 tropical low 19.3S 174.6E 30 +12hr 6 am February 11 tropical low 19.3S 176.1E 55 +18hr 12 pm February 11 tropical low 19.5S 177.3E 85 +24hr 6 pm February 11 tropical low 19.7S 178.4E 110 +36hr 6 am February 12 tropical low 20.0S 179.8W 170 +48hr 6 pm February 12 tropical low 20.1S 178.6W 230 +60hr 6 am February 13 tropical low 20.2S 177.8W 320 +72hr 6 pm February 13 tropical low 20.1S 177.1W 405 -
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