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WTPS33 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 174.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 174.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 19.2S 175.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.7S 175.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 174.5E. 11FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC 12P, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.2S 174.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 248 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P DEVELOPED A PERSISTENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WHICH ALLOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO ALIGN VERTICALLY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (ULCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALED IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH, ALONG WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES, ALLOWED TC 12P TO STRENGTHEN BRIEFLY. AS A RESULT OF THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, DVORAK ESTIMATES INCREASED TO T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). A 102110Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THE DECISION TO REGENERATE TC 12P. FIRST, THE LLCC CLEARLY SHIFTED UNDER THE CORE CONVECTION, ALBEIT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SECOND, THE 25 KM PRODUCT SHOWED NUMEROUS 30-35 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME ISOLATED WINDS IN THE 35-40 KNOT RANGE. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ASCAT AND VISIBLE IMAGERY. RECENT MSI SINCE ABOUT 102230Z, INDICATES THE LLCC IS DECOUPLING FROM THE ULCC AND STALLING, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION. RECENT EIR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CORE CONVECTION DIMINISHING AND BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC AS IT SHEARS TO THE EAST. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE SETS AND REESTABLISHES THE ORIGINAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH THE INTENSITY REMAINING NEAR 35 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-35 KNOTS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MODEL DISCUSSION: IN GENERAL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK WITH A NORTHWARD TURN THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD SHARP TURN. THERE ARE, HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TURN. ECMWF SHARPLY TURNS THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE GFS SHOWS A BROADER TURN SKIRTING THE WESTERN COAST OF VITI LEVU NEAR TAU 48. SEVERAL MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF VITI LEVU BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT DECOUPLING. THE HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (GFS) FORECASTS SUPPORT THE WEAKENING TREND WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-11 10:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 110900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 175.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 175.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.8S 176.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 175.3E. 11FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 199 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED 70+ NM SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A DEFINED BUT WEAK AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD LOWER THAN CONSTRAINED AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SIGNIFICANT 6-HR DETERIORATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW UNDER 25+ KNOTS OF RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CHARACTERIZED BY THE LLC AND THE MAIN CONVECTION MOVING AT TRAJECTORIES MORE THAN 60 DEGREES APART. SINCE THE INTENSITY HAS FALLEN TO BELOW WARNING CRITERIA, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 11 FEET.// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-11 15:45:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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ABPW10 PGTW 191130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191130Z-200600ZFEB2024// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.9S 171.1W, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190831Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION) OBSCURED BY PERISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE AFORMENTIONED ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS RESIDE IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THOUGH GLOBAL DETERMINSITIC MODELS HAVE BEEN TOGGLING DEVELOPMENT FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT, GLOBAL NUMERICAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUTES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.9S 173.3E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM EAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190612Z SMOS IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 97P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THOUGH GLOBAL DETERMINSITIC MODELS HAVE BEEN TOGGLING DEVELOPMENT FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE NEXT, GLOBAL NUMERICAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUTES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREAS IN PARA. 2.B.(1) AND PARA. 2.B.(2).// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-19 21:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
ABPW10 PGTW 210600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZFEB2024// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 170.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1S 169.6W, APPROXIMATELY 184 NM SOUTH OF NIUE. ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH, WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVECTING ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SIGNIFICANT DRY, STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN WEAK SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CONSEQUENTLY, A 2102340Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADANT WITH A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS REVEAL AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH GRADIENT-INDUCED WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 174.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN
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ABPW10 PGTW 250600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZFEB2024// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.1S 171.3E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250219Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 242212Z PARTIAL ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. THE CIMSS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMAGE DEPICTS A POINT SOURCE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH DIFFLUENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS). THERE IS CURRENTLY AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF DRY AIR ALIGNED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, ENTRAINING INTO THE MID-LEVELS OF THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE CORE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-25 14:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
