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ABPW10 PGTW 051800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051800Z-060600ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051351ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 05FEB24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 164.9W, APPROXIMATELY 338 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 051500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.6S 160.0E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA . ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, BUT DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LINEAR FLARING CONVECTION ALIGNED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS HAVING 94P ATTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND ECMWF MUCH LATER (AROUND TAU 96). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).// NNNN
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ABPW10 PGTW 052330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/052330Z-060600ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 05FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 163.5W, APPROXIMATELY 816 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 052100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 160.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY 767 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, BUT WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS HAVING 94P ATTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND ECMWF MUCH LATER (AT AROUND TAU 96). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.3S 175.3W, APPROXIMATELY 359 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, NORTH OF AMERICAN SAMOA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. GFS HAS 98P INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS, BUT ECMWF IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AND DOESN鈥橳 HAVE 98P ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT ALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.// NNNN
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WTPS21 PGTW 072030 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 159.9E TO 17.5S 165.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 071830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 161.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 159.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 161.0E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1622Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C, MODERATE OUTFLOW AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) ALL POINTING POSITIVELY TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ANTICIPATING THE SYSTEM CURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TAU 36. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION TO APPROXIMATELY 30-40KTS BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY 082030Z. // NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/072030Z-082030ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070751ZFEB2024// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071352ZFEB2024// REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072051ZFEB2024// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 07FEB24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 152.7W, APPROXIMATELY 191 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 070900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AT 07FEB24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 165.6W, APPROXIMATELY 323 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS32 PGTW 071500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 159.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 161.0E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1622Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29C, MODERATE OUTFLOW AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) ALL POINTING POSITIVELY TOWARDS INTENSIFICATION. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ANTICIPATING THE SYSTEM CURVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TAU 36. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION TO APPROXIMATELY 30-40KTS BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-08 06:00:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS13 NFFN 080000 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 080158 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 162.4E AT 080000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. . DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 15.8S 164.3E MOV ESE AT KT WITH 06 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 16.5S 165.6E MOV ESE AT KT WITH 07 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 17.2S 166.7E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 17.8S 168.2E MOV ESE AT 02 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080800 UTC.
WTPS13 NFFN 080000 CCA TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 080220 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 162.4E AT 080000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. . DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND CLOUD TOP COOLING IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP WITH DT 2.5 WITH PT AND MET AGREEING. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 15.8S 164.3E MOV ESE AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 16.5S 165.6E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 17.2S 166.7E MOV ESE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 17.8S 168.2E MOV ESE AT 02 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080800 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
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Accuracy (km)0hr 12 am February 8 tropical low 15.4S 162.4E 110 +6hr 6 am February 8 1 15.4S 163.3E 140 +12hr 12 pm February 8 1 15.8S 164.3E 165 +18hr 6 pm February 8 2 16.2S 165.1E 195 +24hr 12 am February 9 2 16.5S 165.6E 220 +36hr 12 pm February 9 2 17.2S 166.7E 285 +48hr 12 am February 10 2 17.8S 168.2E 345 +60hr 12 pm February 10 2 18.2S 170.0E 430 +72hr 12 am February 11 1 18.5S 171.5E 520 最后于 2024-02-08 10:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072021ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 15.9S 162.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 162.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.3S 164.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 17.2S 165.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.0S 166.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.6S 168.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 19.4S 171.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.6S 172.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 19.7S 170.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 163.0E. 08FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 072030).// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.9S 162.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 350 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE) REVEALING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 072212Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE REVEALED A FAIRLY ELONGATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION WITH HIGHEST OBSERVED WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF TC 12P. A 072208Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE CAPTURED FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION 60NM NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY AND MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY DATA, AS WELL AS THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH-SOUTWEST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ARE ANTICIPATED TO ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, HIGH (ABOVE 30 KTS) VWS AND DEGRADATION OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT ARE ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL INTENSITY DOWNTREND AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD TO TAU 96. EXPERIENCING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER STR TO THE SOUTHEAST AT TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN SHARPLY TO A WESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 12P WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. THE TRACK CONSENSUS DISPLAYS GOOD AGREEMENT BY TAU 72, WITH A NEGLIGIBLE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AND A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 98NM. A GRADUAL RISE IN INTENSITY TO A PEAK OF NEAR 50KTS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 IS OBSERVED IN MULTIPLE GLOBAL MODELS. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 96, MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STR BUILDS AHEAD OF TC 12P PROJECTED TRACK AND RECURVES THE TC NEAR TAU 96, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD AND MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. THOUGH GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING INTENSITY, THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN OTHER MEMBERS (STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL AND COUPLED MODELS), WITH A MAX INTENSITY SPREAD OF 55KTS EVIDENT AT TAU 72, CONTRIBUTING TO AN INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF LOW FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-08 10:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：