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WTPS12 NFFN 071800 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 071956 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE OSAI CENTRE 992HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 165.1W AT 071800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT AND WRAPPING ONTO SUPPOSED LLCC WITH ORGANISATION IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY. TC OSAI LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO THE 500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK ITS FORWARD MOTION AND COMPETE FOR STEERING CAUSING OSAI TO SLOW DOWN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN, WITH 0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE WITH FT BASED ON PT. THUS YIELDS, T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 18.9S 164.7W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 19.3S 164.6W MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 19.6S 164.7W MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 19.7S 164.7W MOV SSE AT 02 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OSAI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080200 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 pm February 7 1 17.9S 165.1W 75 +6hr 12 am February 8 2 18.6S 164.7W 30 +12hr 6 am February 8 2 18.9S 164.7W 55 +18hr 12 pm February 8 2 19.1S 164.6W 85 +24hr 6 pm February 8 2 19.3S 164.6W 110 +36hr 6 am February 9 2 19.6S 164.7W 170 +48hr 6 pm February 9 2 19.7S 164.7W 230 +60hr 6 am February 10 1 19.7S 164.7W 320 +72hr 6 pm February 10 1 19.8S 164.6W 405 -
WTPS32 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 17.8S 164.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 164.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 18.9S 164.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.4S 163.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.7S 163.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 19.5S 163.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 18.1S 164.4W. 07FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDPS32 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 164.6W INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 312 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NIUE MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (OSAI) HAVING BEGUN EXPERIENCING STRONG (20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH CENTRALIZED DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET EASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN A 071800Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. HIGH (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT ARE OFFSET BY A TILTED VORTEX (SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT) AND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG VWS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 071700Z SSMIS 37GHZ AND 89GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 071740Z CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 071940Z CIMSS DPRINT: 40 KTS AT 072000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, FOLLOWING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG VWS IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM DESPITE FAVORABLE SST AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT, COMING TO A FORECASTED INTENSITY OF 40KTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, A BUILDING STR SOUTH OF THE LLCC WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN EASTWARD TO TAU 36 AND THEN STAY ON AN EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 48. SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION TO 35KTS OR ABOVE SOMETIME AFTER TAU 48, RANGING FROM TAU 48 TO TAU 120. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE NEXT WARNING MAY EXTEND THE FORECAST OF TC 11P AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, AND THEN MEMBERS OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS SHARPLY DIVERGE FROM ON ANOTHER OFFERING SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THEREAFTER. MOST MEMBERS TURN THE SYSTEM EASTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, AS THE JTWC FORECAST RESPECTIVELY SHOWS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS A WESTWARD TRACK NEAR TAU 24, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS AN EXTENSION OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING EASTWARD AFTER THE FORECAST INTERVAL. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN TRACK GUIDANCE, BUT STILL YIELDS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY. THE INTENSITY SPREAD, EXCLUDING STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE, AT TAU 48 IS 10 KTS CENTERED AROUND 30 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 48 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 48 HR: MEDIUM// NNN NNNN
最后于 2024-02-08 05:00:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS12 NFFN 080000 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 080127 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE OSAI CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 164.5W AT 080000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT. LLCC FULLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. TC OSAI LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO THE 500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED SHEARED PATTERN, YIELDING DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE WITH FT BASED ON DT. THUS, T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.3S 164.5W MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 18.7S 164.6W MOV S AT 02 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 18.9S 165.0W MOV SSW AT 02 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 19.0S 165.5W MOV SW AT 02 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OSAI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080800 UTC.
WTPS12 NFFN 080000 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 080159 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE OSAI CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 164.5W AT 080000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT. LLCC FULLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. TC OSAI LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO THE 500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN. YIELDING DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE WITH FT BASED ON DT. THUS, T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.3S 164.5W MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 18.7S 164.6W MOV S AT 02 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 18.9S 165.0W MOV SSW AT 02 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 19.0S 165.5W MOV SW AT 02 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OSAI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080800 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 am February 8 1 17.7S 164.5W 75 +6hr 6 am February 8 1 18.1S 164.4W 100 +12hr 12 pm February 8 1 18.3S 164.5W 130 +18hr 6 pm February 8 1 18.5S 164.5W 155 +24hr 12 am February 9 tropical low 18.7S 164.6W 185 +36hr 12 pm February 9 tropical low 18.9S 165.0W 245 +48hr 12 am February 10 tropical low 19.0S 165.5W 305 +60hr 12 pm February 10 tropical low 19.0S 166.1W 395 +72hr 12 am February 11 tropical low 18.9S 166.5W 480 最后于 2024-02-08 10:05:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS32 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNING NR 006 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 164.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 164.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 18.3S 164.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.7S 164.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 18.8S 164.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 164.7W. 08FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 309 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDPS32 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.6S 164.7W INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 309 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NIUE MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (OSAI) CONTINUING TO BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY STRONG (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS REMAINING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES BECOME COMPLETELY DISLOCATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN ANIMATED GOES-18 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY HIGH, BETWEEN 28C-29C, WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE MECHANISM BECOMES INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED FROM THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT ON THE ANIMATED GOES-18 VISIBLE LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 2240Z CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 072340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11P IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, FOLLOWING THE WEAKENING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE ENHANCED VWS IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST AT TAU 6 AND DECREASE STEADILY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, RELATIVELY STRONG TO MODERATE (GREATER THAN 20 KTS) VWS WILL FURTHER DISSIPATE TC 11P THROUGH TAU 36. AS ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TO MODERATE VWS WHILE AN EXTENSION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH CARRIES TC 11P EASTWARD, UNDER THE WESTERLIES INTO DISSIPATION. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODEL MEMBERS OF THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS SHOW A STEADY DECAY IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36, WHILE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES PROGRESS THE TRACK GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH, AND THEN EAST WITH THE WESTERLIES BY TAU 36. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 11P WILL TRACK GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 12, AND THEN MEMBERS OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY, OFFERING SEVERAL SOUTHWARD SOLUTIONS BY TAU 36 AS STEERING MECHANISMS COMPETE. MOST CONSENSUS MEMBERS PROGRESS TC 11P TO THE EAST, AS THE STR BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH CARRIES THE SYSTEM EASTWARD UNDER THE WESTERLIES. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROJECTS THE BEGINNING OF THE EASTWARD TRACK, WHILE INTENSITY AIDS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT TC 11P WHILE STEADILY DECREASE TO 30 KTS BY TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF 10-15 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 36 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 36 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-08 10:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
南太平洋一级热带气旋“奥赛”生成
时 间：8日08时（北京时）
海 域：南太平洋
命 名：“奥赛”，OSAI
中心位置：南纬17.7度、西经164.5度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：9级（23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：992百帕
参考位置：汤加努库阿洛法东偏北方向约1180公里的洋面上
变化过程：“奥赛”生成并加强到9级
预报结论：“奥赛”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏南方向缓慢移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月08日08时00分）
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“奥赛”强度逐渐减弱
时 间：8日14时（北京时）
海 域：南太平洋
命 名：“奥赛”，OSAI
中心位置：南纬17.8度、西经164.2度
强度等级：一级热带气旋
最大风力：8级（18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：998百帕
参考位置：新西兰奥克兰东北方向约2950公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“奥赛”由6级加强到8级
预报结论：“奥赛”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。
（这是关于“奥赛”的最后一期监测公报）
图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月08日14时00分）
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WTPS32 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI) WARNING NR 007 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 163.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 163.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.7S 163.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 163.3W. 08FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (OSAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 272 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED AND EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC REMAINS DEVOID OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ABOVE THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR AND SWIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 080900Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS SHOWING 25-30 KNOT MAXIMUM WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTSKIRTS OF THE CIRCULATION. THE 080600Z BEST TRACK INTENSITY HAS BEEN REANALYZED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON THIS ASCAT AS WELL AND THUS THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD. SHEAR IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 30-40 KNOTS FROM THE WEST, WHILE DRY AIR HAS ENGULFED THE SYSTEM IN THE MID-LEVELS, LEAVING LITTLE TO NO OPPORTUNITY FOR REINTENSIFICATION THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT COULD MAKE A COMEBACK AFTER TAU 72. TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ERRATIC, MEANDERING TRACK WITH A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODELS WHICH SHOW OPTIONS TOWARDS MOST POINTS OF THE COMPASS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) FINAL WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-09 04:55:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
