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ABPW10 PGTW 052330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/052330Z-060600ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 05FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 163.5W, APPROXIMATELY 816 NM WEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 052100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6S 160.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY 767 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, BUT WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON INTENSIFICATION, WITH GFS HAVING 94P ATTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND ECMWF MUCH LATER (AT AROUND TAU 96). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.3S 175.3W, APPROXIMATELY 359 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, NORTH OF AMERICAN SAMOA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. GFS HAS 98P INTENSIFYING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS, BUT ECMWF IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AND DOESN鈥橳 HAVE 98P ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT ALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.// NNNN
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WTPS21 PGTW 061730 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98P)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6S 171.9W TO 17.6S 165.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 171.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 174.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 171.9W, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061452Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH VERY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, EAST OF AMERICAN SAMOA, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071730Z.// NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 061800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/061800Z-070600ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060751ZFEB2024// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061721ZFEB2024// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 06FEB24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 159.4W, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM WEST OF BORA BORA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 060900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 174.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 171.9W, APPROXIMATELY 179 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061452Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH VERY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 98P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, EAST OF AMERICAN SAMOA, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 061730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 159.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 159.0E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061423Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 061124Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND 20-25 KT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PARTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF 94P. GFS HAS 94P TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA, WHILE ECMWF HAS IT TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD, NORTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.// NNNN
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WTPS32 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061721ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 170.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 170.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 15.1S 167.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 17.0S 166.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 18.1S 165.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.6S 166.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 18.5S 166.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 169.8W. 06FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM NORTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 061730).// NNNN
WDPS32 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 12.7S 170.5W INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 97 NM NORTH OF PAGO PAGO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING (VERY SMALL) SYSTEM WITH EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES FEEDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE CORE CONVECTION, WHICH IS WELL ORGANIZED. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P HAS FORMED RAPIDLY WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE, WITH EXTENSIVE NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLIES PERSISTING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SPCZ OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. RECENT WINDSPEED DATA INCLUDING A 061706Z SMAP IMAGE FROM REMSS INDICATES GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 061715Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS SPARSE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND THE MSI. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE CLEARLY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE PGTW SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL HIGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THIS HIGH WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK POLEWARD PROGRESSION AND STEER THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD BY TAU 72. TC 11P WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND WARM SST (30-31 C) VALUES. THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR NEAR TAU 24 AT 40 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND, WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS). AS THE SYSTEM STALLS AFTER TAU 48, THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND AND LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 061200Z GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) REVEALS A SIMILAR SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH A SQUASHED SPIDER PATTERN AFTER TAU 24, WITH SOLUTIONS FANNING OUT. THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS TURN THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AFTER TAU 48, WHICH FITS WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN最后于 2024-02-07 07:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS12 NFFN 070000 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 070157 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 169.3W AT 070000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD08F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS UPTO 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTER INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS BY 071200UTC. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTRE [LLCC] WITH PRIMARY BANDS FROM THE NORTH TRYING TO WRAP ONTO THE EASTERN SECTOR OF LLCC. ORGANISATION SLIGHTLY IMPROVED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. TD08F LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 070800UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 am February 7 tropical low 13.9S 169.3W 95 +6hr 6 am February 7 tropical low 14.9S 167.8W 120 +12hr 12 pm February 7 1 15.8S 167.0W 150 +18hr 6 pm February 7 1 16.8S 166.2W 175 +24hr 12 am February 8 1 17.3S 166.0W 205 +36hr 12 pm February 8 1 18.0S 165.9W 265 +48hr 12 am February 9 2 18.4S 166.0W 325 +60hr 12 pm February 9 2 18.5S 165.9W 410 +72hr 12 am February 10 2 18.5S 165.5W 500 最后于 2024-02-07 10:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS32 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 168.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 168.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 16.3S 166.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 17.7S 165.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 18.5S 165.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 18.8S 165.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.7S 166.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 168.2W. 07FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM EAST OF MANUA ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDPS32 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.2S 168.7W INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 53 NM EAST OF MANUA ISLANDS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070016Z ATMS 165 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PARTIAL 062050Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND SUGGESTS A POSITION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE MANUA ISLANDS NEAR 062100Z. THE ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER 061707Z SMAP IMAGE GENERALLY INDICATED 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE, SMAP, ASCAT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECT A HIGHLY ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD WITH WESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW VENTING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AND SMAP DATA, AND IS HEDGED ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS PHFO: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 062340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL HIGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. THIS HIGH WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK POLEWARD PROGRESSION AND STEER THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD BY TAU 72. TC 11P WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND WARM SST (30-31 C) VALUES. THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR NEAR TAU 24 AT 40 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND, WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM STALLS AFTER TAU 48, THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND AND LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAVGEM AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 061200Z GFS ENSEMBLE (GEFS) AND 061800Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) REVEAL A SIMILAR SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH A SQUASHED SPIDER PATTERN AFTER TAU 24, WITH SOLUTIONS FANNING OUT. THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS TURN THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AFTER TAU 48, WHICH FITS WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-07 10:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS12 NFFN 070600 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 070820 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 167.6W AT 070600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD08F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 24 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS BY 071200UTC. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTRE [LLCC] WITH PRIMARY BANDS FROM THE NORTH TRYING TO WRAP ONTO THE EASTERN SECTOR OF LLCC. ORGANISATION SLIGHTLY IMPROVED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. TD08F LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 17.1S 165.9W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 18.1S 165.3W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 18.8S 165.3W MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 19.1S 165.6W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 071400UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 am February 7 tropical low 15.6S 167.6W 110 +6hr 12 pm February 7 1 16.4S 166.6W 140 +12hr 6 pm February 7 1 17.1S 165.9W 165 +18hr 12 am February 8 1 17.8S 165.4W 195 +24hr 6 am February 8 1 18.1S 165.3W 220 +36hr 6 pm February 8 1 18.8S 165.3W 280 +48hr 6 am February 9 2 19.1S 165.6W 345 +60hr 6 pm February 9 2 19.1S 165.9W 430 +72hr 6 am February 10 2 19.1S 166.0W 520 最后于 2024-02-07 16:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS32 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 166.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 23 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 166.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 17.5S 164.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 18.6S 164.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 19.2S 164.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 166.3W. 07FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDPS32 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 166.8W INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 239 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A MIDGET-SIZED SYSTEM TRACKING AWAY FROM AMERICAN SAMOA WITH SHALLOW RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY A COLD DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS DEEPENED SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 070549Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE-HIGH VWS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 070310Z CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 070540Z CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 070540Z CIMSS DPRINT: 41 KTS AT 070500Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING NER UP TO TAU 24. AFTERWARD, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK ITS FORWARD MOTION AND COMPETE FOR STEERING. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL MOSTLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS GRADUAL DECAY, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN SPREAD TO 114NM BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, A WESTWARD AND EASTWARD TRACK BIFURCATION SCENARIO ENSUES WITH THE STR AND THE NER COMPETING FOR STEERING. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-07 16:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS12 NFFN 071200 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 071412 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE OSAI CENTRE 991HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 165.7W AT 071200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT AND WRAPPING ONTO SUPPOSED LLCC WITH ORGANISATION IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY. TC OSAI LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO THE 500HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND PATTERN, WITH 0.8 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=3.5, MET AND PT =3.0 WITH FT BASED ON PT. YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 18.0S 164.4W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.8S 164.0W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 19.2S 164.1W MOV SW AT 02 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 19.2S 164.2W MOV SW AT 02 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON OSAI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 072000 UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 pm February 7 1 16.5S 165.7W 110 +6hr 6 pm February 7 2 17.4S 164.8W 140 +12hr 12 am February 8 2 18.0S 164.4W 165 +18hr 6 am February 8 2 18.5S 164.0W 195 +24hr 12 pm February 8 2 18.8S 164.0W 220 +36hr 12 am February 9 1 19.2S 164.1W 280 +48hr 12 pm February 9 1 19.2S 164.2W 345 +60hr 12 am February 10 1 19.2S 164.2W 430 +72hr 12 pm February 10 1 19.1S 163.6W 520 最后于 2024-02-08 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS32 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 165.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 165.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 18.0S 164.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 18.9S 164.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 19.3S 164.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 165.3W. 07FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (NAT) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDPS32 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.5S 165.6W INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 323 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDGET-SIZED SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY A COLD DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS DEEPENED SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 071211Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT CONVECTIVE IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE-HIGH VWS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 071140Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 11P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING NER UP TO TAU 24. AFTERWARD, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK ITS FORWARD MOTION AND COMPETE FOR STEERING. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH INCREASING VWS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, LEADING TO GRADUAL DECAY AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN SPREAD TO 95NM BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, A WESTWARD AND EASTWARD TRACK BIFURCATION SCENARIO ENSUES WITH THE STR AND THE NER COMPETING FOR STEERING. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-08 04:55:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：