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IDD20150 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning. TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8 Issued at 10:24 pm ACST [10:54 pm AEST] on Thursday 15 February 2024 Headline: Tropical Low 07U likely to bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast ahead of expected coastal crossing on Friday. Areas Affected: Warning Zone Port Roper (NT) to Burketown (Qld), including Mornington Island and Borroloola, but not including Ngukurr . Watch Zone None. Cancelled Zone None. Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm ACST [10:00 pm AEST]: Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour. Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.4 degrees South 138.0 degrees East, estimated to be 195 kilometres east northeast of Borroloola and 190 kilometres northwest of Mornington Island. Movement: south southeast at 8 kilometres per hour. Tropical Low 07U is expected to remain slow moving in the Gulf of Carpentaria overnight Thursday before moving southwest on Friday. The system is forecast to make landfall between the NT/Qld border and Port Roper (NT) during Friday, most likely in the afternoon or evening. There is a moderate chance it strengthens into a tropical cyclone on Friday ahead of coastal crossing. Even if it doesn't develop into a tropical cyclone, parts of the Gulf of Carpentaria coast are likely to experience strong to gale force winds and heavy rainfall. Later Friday it will weaken inland and then move west across the Northern Territory. Hazards: GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 kilometres per hour could develop along the coast between Bing Bong and Mornington Island during Friday morning. There is a small chance that damaging wind gusts could extend west to Port Roper in the Northern Territory or east to Burketown in Queensland during Friday depending on the movement of 07U. HEAVY RAINFALL is expected to develop along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast through the overnight period, becoming more likely on Friday as 07U moves closer to the coast. Locally intense rainfall is also possible depending on the development of 07U. Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL across southern Gulf of Carpentaria on Friday and extending to western Gulf of Carpentaria Saturday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas as the system nears the coast on Friday. Recommended Action: For people in the Northern Territory NTES advises: - People in Borroloola and surrounding areas should activate their household plan now. - Start preparations for a cyclone, know where you will shelter. - Listen for the next advice. For cyclone safety and preparation advice www.securent.nt.gov.au Ensure family, friends and neighbours have received and understood this message. For people in Queensland between the QLD/NT border and Burketown should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases. - Information is available from your local government - For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au) - For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage). Next Advice: The next advice will be issued by 1:30 am ACST Friday 16 February [2:00 am AEST Friday 16 February]. This advice is available on telephone at 1300 659 210 A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm February 15 tropical low 15.4S 138.0E 55 +6hr 4 am February 16 tropical low 15.5S 138.0E 75 +12hr 10 am February 16 tropical low 15.8S 138.0E 90 +18hr 4 pm February 16 tropical low 16.3S 137.7E 100 +24hr 10 pm February 16 tropical low 16.6S 137.1E 105 +36hr 10 am February 17 tropical low 17.1S 135.5E 105 +48hr 10 pm February 17 tropical low 17.7S 134.1E 135 +60hr 10 am February 18 tropical low 18.1S 132.0E 165 +72hr 10 pm February 18 tropical low 18.4S 130.7E 210
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm February 15 tropical low 15.4S 138.0E 55 +6hr 4 am February 16 tropical low 15.5S 138.0E 75 +12hr 10 am February 16 tropical low 15.8S 138.0E 90 +18hr 4 pm February 16 tropical low 16.3S 137.7E 100 +24hr 10 pm February 16 tropical low 16.6S 137.1E 105 +36hr 10 am February 17 tropical low 17.1S 135.5E 105 +48hr 10 pm February 17 tropical low 17.7S 134.1E 135 +60hr 10 am February 18 tropical low 18.1S 132.0E 165 +72hr 10 pm February 18 tropical low 18.4S 130.7E 210 -
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IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1903 UTC 15/02/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 07U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 15.7S Longitude: 137.7E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (213 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 996 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 16/0000: 16.1S 137.7E: 040 (070): 040 (075): 991 +12: 16/0600: 16.6S 137.4E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 991 +18: 16/1200: 16.9S 136.8E: 060 (105): 035 (065): 994 +24: 16/1800: 17.1S 136.0E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 997 +36: 17/0600: 17.6S 134.5E: 065 (120): 025 (045): 999 +48: 17/1800: 18.2S 132.7E: 075 (140): 025 (045): 1000 +60: 18/0600: 18.5S 131.0E: 100 (180): 025 (045): 1001 +72: 18/1800: 18.9S 129.4E: 110 (205): 025 (045): 1002 +96: 19/1800: 18.8S 127.3E: 145 (275): 020 (035): 1004 +120: 20/1800: 17.9S 125.2E: 185 (345): 020 (035): 1002 REMARKS: Tropical low 07U was located using satellite and radar imagery. Deep convection continues to increase to the west of the estimated low level centre, with the strongest winds estimated in the northwest quadrant. Dvorak analysis yields DT = 2.0 based on a 0.3 - 0.4 curved band wrap (3 hour average DT = 2.3). MET = 2.0 based on a 24 hour D- trend, with PT adjusted to 2.5. Final T and CI are 2.5. Intensity is set at 35 knots (NW quadrant) based on Dvorak and earlier near gales at Centre Island, 50 nautical miles to the west of the centre. There is no objective guidance available at present. The environment is broadly favourable for development. SSTs in the Gulf are very warm at 30C. An upper trough to the south of the system is providing good upper divergence and poleward outflow. The system lies under estimated low to moderate vertical wind shear. Some model guidance indicates 07U may reach tropical cyclone intensity before making landfall, however remaining time over water is limited. Steering is expected to be to the south-southwest in the short term under the combined influence of an upper trough to the south and mid-level ridge to the east. On Friday night a new mid-level ridge is expecxted to build to the south of the system, turning it more west-southwest, and this steering pattern should persist at least over the weekend, moving the system over land across the Northern Territory. In the longer term, guidance indicates the low may move offshore from the Kimberley coast mid next week, with the possibility of the system re-intensifying. There is some spread in the models at this range and a there is a high degree of uncertainty in this outcome. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0130 UTC.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am February 16 tropical low 15.7S 137.7E 35 +6hr 10 am February 16 tropical low 16.1S 137.7E 70 +12hr 4 pm February 16 tropical low 16.6S 137.4E 95 +18hr 10 pm February 16 tropical low 16.9S 136.8E 105 +24hr 4 am February 17 tropical low 17.1S 136.0E 110 +36hr 4 pm February 17 tropical low 17.6S 134.5E 120 +48hr 4 am February 18 tropical low 18.2S 132.7E 140 +60hr 4 pm February 18 tropical low 18.5S 131.0E 180 +72hr 4 am February 19 tropical low 18.9S 129.4E 205
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am February 16 tropical low 15.7S 137.7E 35 +6hr 10 am February 16 tropical low 16.1S 137.7E 70 +12hr 4 pm February 16 tropical low 16.6S 137.4E 95 +18hr 10 pm February 16 tropical low 16.9S 136.8E 105 +24hr 4 am February 17 tropical low 17.1S 136.0E 110 +36hr 4 pm February 17 tropical low 17.6S 134.5E 120 +48hr 4 am February 18 tropical low 18.2S 132.7E 140 +60hr 4 pm February 18 tropical low 18.5S 131.0E 180 +72hr 4 am February 19 tropical low 18.9S 129.4E 205 -
WTPS32 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151421ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 137.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 137.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.1S 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.7S 136.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.2S 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 137.4E. 15FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 151430).// NNNN
WDPS32 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.5S 137.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 119 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVING SLOWLY 30-35 NM OFF THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CARPENTARIA. A CIRCULAR REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEGREES CELSIUS COVERS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT CONSISTS OF A DRY SLOT AND A LACK OF CONVECTION, POSSIBLY DUE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR APPARENT FROM UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS. CENTRE ISLAND, LOCATED CLOSE TO THE INNERMOST CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC HAS BEEN MEASURING 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-33 KT DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON THIS DATA AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS ADRM: T2.0 - 30 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P IS CONSOLIDATING AND ORGANIZING, BUT HAS LITTLE TIME REMAINING OVER WATER. STEERING CURRENTS ARE PRESENTLY WEAK BETWEEN DUELING MID-LEVEL RIDGES IN THE CORAL SEA AND OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, BUT MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY NET STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE NEAR-TERM AND PUSH 14P ASHORE IN AUSTRALIA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE POSSIBLE IN THAT TIME, GIVEN THAT A SYMMETRIC INNER CORE STRUCTURE HAS NOT YET FORMED. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTION, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT 14P SPENDS SLIGHTLY LONGER OVER WATER THAN EXPECTED, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. POST-LANDFALL, 14P WILL DISSIPATE, AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA WILL TURN 14P'S REMNANTS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, POTENTIALLY REEMERGING OVER WATER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN OCEAN IN SEVERAL DAYS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE REMNANTS WOULD BE MONITORED FOR REGENERATION. MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE SHORT FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0101 UTC 16/02/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 07U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 15.6S Longitude: 137.6E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: west (270 deg) Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 996 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 16/0600: 16.2S 137.5E: 035 (065): 040 (075): 994 +12: 16/1200: 16.6S 137.2E: 045 (085): 030 (055): 998 +18: 16/1800: 16.9S 136.5E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 999 +24: 17/0000: 17.1S 135.8E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 999 +36: 17/1200: 17.7S 134.4E: 065 (120): 025 (045): 1002 +48: 18/0000: 18.0S 132.7E: 075 (140): 025 (045): 1004 +60: 18/1200: 18.3S 131.5E: 095 (175): 025 (045): 1003 +72: 19/0000: 18.4S 130.1E: 105 (190): 025 (045): 1003 +96: 20/0000: 17.5S 128.5E: 135 (250): 020 (035): 1003 +120: 21/0000: 16.6S 127.0E: 180 (335): 020 (035): 1003 REMARKS: Tropical low 07U was located using visible satellite imagery and radar animation. Deep convection has continued to persist to the west and northwest of the centre. The low level centre is exposed about 25nm to the east of the deepest convection. Dvorak analysis using curved band pattern yields DT = 2.0. MET = 1.5 based on a 24 hour S trend, with PT adjusted to 2.0. Final T = 2.0 and CI is held at 2.5. Shear pattern has not been used due to the pulsating nature of deep convection. Intensity is set at 35 knots (NW quadrant) based on observations. There is no objective guidance available at present. The environment is broadly favourable for development. An upper trough to the south of the system is providing good upper divergence and poleward outflow. The system lies under estimated low to moderate vertical wind shear. Some model guidance indicates 07U may reach tropical cyclone intensity just before making landfall, however remaining time over water is limited. Steering is expected to be to the south-southwest under the combined influence of an upper trough to the south and mid-level ridge to the east. From late Friday, a new mid-level ridge builds to the south of the system, turning it more towards the west-southwest. This steering should persist during the weekend, moving the system over land across central Northern Territory. In the longer term, guidance indicates the low may move offshore from the Kimberley coast mid next week, with the possibility of the system re-intensifying. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0730 UTC.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 am February 16 tropical low 15.6S 137.6E 30 +6hr 4 pm February 16 tropical low 16.2S 137.5E 65 +12hr 10 pm February 16 tropical low 16.6S 137.2E 85 +18hr 4 am February 17 tropical low 16.9S 136.5E 100 +24hr 10 am February 17 tropical low 17.1S 135.8E 110 +36hr 10 pm February 17 tropical low 17.7S 134.4E 120 +48hr 10 am February 18 tropical low 18.0S 132.7E 140 +60hr 10 pm February 18 tropical low 18.3S 131.5E 175 +72hr 10 am February 19 tropical low 18.4S 130.1E 190
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 am February 16 tropical low 15.6S 137.6E 30 +6hr 4 pm February 16 tropical low 16.2S 137.5E 65 +12hr 10 pm February 16 tropical low 16.6S 137.2E 85 +18hr 4 am February 17 tropical low 16.9S 136.5E 100 +24hr 10 am February 17 tropical low 17.1S 135.8E 110 +36hr 10 pm February 17 tropical low 17.7S 134.4E 120 +48hr 10 am February 18 tropical low 18.0S 132.7E 140 +60hr 10 pm February 18 tropical low 18.3S 131.5E 175 +72hr 10 am February 19 tropical low 18.4S 130.1E 190 -
WTPS32 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 137.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 137.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.1S 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.7S 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.2S 134.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 137.3E. 16FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 00 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDPS32 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.5S 137.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 119 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 00 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT BUT PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CORE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SIDE. NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE LLC LOCATION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE STORM HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KT) AND LITTLE CHANGE IN OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS AT CENTRE ISLAND NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLC, RANGING FROM 30 TO 33 KT (10-MINUTE AVERAGED) IN RECENT HOURS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P HAS BEEN QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS, MIRED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND THE CORAL SEA. HOWEVER, MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT A NET NORTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AND PUSH 14P SOUTHWESTWARD AND INLAND OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DISSIPATION AND A SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THE REMNANTS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AUSTRALIA WILL ENSUE. THIS TRACK COULD POTENTIALLY CARRY THE REMNANTS OUT INTO THE SOUTHEAST INDIAN OCEAN IN SEVERAL DAYS, AT WHICH POINT MODELS SUGGEST REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. SHOULD THE REMNANTS IN FACT SURVIVE AND REEMERGE OVER WATER, THEY WILL BE MONITORED FOR REGENERATION. MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STORM TRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MEAN OF THE OVERLAND DECAY FORECAST FROM AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
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