-
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0306 UTC 16/02/2024
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lincoln
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0200 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 137.5E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: west northwest (287 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 16/0800: 16.0S 137.3E: 025 (050): 040 (075): 996
+12: 16/1400: 16.4S 136.9E: 040 (070): 030 (055): 998
+18: 16/2000: 16.7S 136.2E: 045 (085): 030 (055): 999
+24: 17/0200: 16.9S 135.5E: 055 (100): 025 (045): 999
+36: 17/1400: 17.5S 134.0E: 070 (130): 025 (045): 1002
+48: 18/0200: 17.8S 132.4E: 090 (165): 025 (045): 1003
+60: 18/1400: 18.0S 131.2E: 105 (190): 025 (045): 1003
+72: 19/0200: 18.0S 129.8E: 110 (205): 025 (045): 1003
+96: 20/0200: 17.2S 128.3E: 150 (275): 020 (035): 1003
+120: 21/0200: 16.3S 126.8E: 190 (350): 020 (035): 1003
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone was located using visible satellite imagery, radar animation
and ASCAT passes from 2339UTC and 0026UTC. Deep convection has continued to
persist to the west and northwest of the centre. The low level centre is
exposed about 10nm to the east of the deepest convection. Dvorak analysis is
based on a shear pattern yielding DT = 3.0. MET = 2.0 based on a 24 hour D-
trend, with PT adjusted to 2.5. Final T and CI = 3.0. Objective Guidance: ADT
35 kn, AiDT 33kn, DPRINT 31 kn (1 min). Intensity is set at 40 knots based on
ASCAT pass.
The environment is favourable for slight further development, however remaining
time over water is limited. An upper trough to the south of the system is
providing good upper divergence and poleward outflow. The system lies under
estimated low to moderate vertical wind shear.
Steering is expected to be to the south-southwest under the combined influence
of an upper trough to the south and mid-level ridge to the east. From late
Friday, a new mid-level ridge builds to the south of the system, turning it
more towards the west-southwest. This steering should persist during the
weekend, moving the system over land across central Northern Territory. In the
longer term, guidance indicates the low may move offshore from the Kimberley
coast mid next week, with the possibility of the system re-intensifying.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0730 UTC.
还有-9条回复，登录后查看更多!
-
-
-
IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0650 UTC 16/02/2024 Name: Tropical Cyclone Lincoln Identifier: 07U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 16.1S Longitude: 137.3E Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (210 deg) Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 993 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 35 nm (65 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 16/1200: 16.3S 137.1E: 030 (050): 030 (055): 996 +12: 16/1800: 16.5S 136.3E: 040 (075): 030 (055): 996 +18: 17/0000: 16.8S 135.5E: 050 (090): 030 (055): 1000 +24: 17/0600: 17.1S 134.9E: 055 (105): 025 (045): 998 +36: 17/1800: 17.6S 133.3E: 070 (130): 025 (045): 1000 +48: 18/0600: 18.0S 131.8E: 095 (180): 025 (045): 1001 +60: 18/1800: 18.2S 130.4E: 115 (210): 025 (045): 1001 +72: 19/0600: 18.0S 129.1E: 125 (235): 025 (045): 1000 +96: 20/0600: 16.9S 127.0E: 155 (290): 020 (035): 1000 +120: 21/0600: 16.0S 124.8E: 190 (355): 025 (045): 998 REMARKS: Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was located using visible satellite imagery, radar animation and nearby surface observations. Deep convection has continued just to the west of the centre. The exposed low level centre is now less than 10nm to the east of the deepest convection. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yields DT = 3.5. MET = 2.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, with PT adjusted to 3.0. Final T and CI = 3.0. Objective Guidance: AiDT 33kn, DPRINT 34 kn (1-min). Intensity is 40 knots based on earlier ASCAT pass and Dvorak analysis. The system is expected to maintain intensity as it makes landfall, then weaken quickly to below tropical cyclone strength during the evening. Steering is expected to continue to be south-southwest initially, then more towards the west-southwest during the weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to the south. It is then expected to maintain a general westward movement into early next week, moving across central Northern Territory. In the longer term, guidance indicates the low may move offshore of the Kimberley coast by mid next week, with the possibility of the system re-intensifying. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 pm February 16 1 16.1S 137.3E 20 +6hr 10 pm February 16 tropical low 16.3S 137.1E 50 +12hr 4 am February 17 tropical low 16.5S 136.3E 75 +18hr 10 am February 17 tropical low 16.8S 135.5E 90 +24hr 4 pm February 17 tropical low 17.1S 134.9E 105 +36hr 4 am February 18 tropical low 17.6S 133.3E 130 +48hr 4 pm February 18 tropical low 18.0S 131.8E 180 +60hr 4 am February 19 tropical low 18.2S 130.4E 210 +72hr 4 pm February 19 tropical low 18.0S 129.1E 235
Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 pm February 16 1 16.1S 137.3E 20 +6hr 10 pm February 16 tropical low 16.3S 137.1E 50 +12hr 4 am February 17 tropical low 16.5S 136.3E 75 +18hr 10 am February 17 tropical low 16.8S 135.5E 90 +24hr 4 pm February 17 tropical low 17.1S 134.9E 105 +36hr 4 am February 18 tropical low 17.6S 133.3E 130 +48hr 4 pm February 18 tropical low 18.0S 131.8E 180 +60hr 4 am February 19 tropical low 18.2S 130.4E 210 +72hr 4 pm February 19 tropical low 18.0S 129.1E 235 -
-
WTPS32 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 137.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 137.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.7S 136.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 17.3S 134.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 136.8E. 16FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND CLEARLY SHOWED THAT, OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MADE LANDFALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING ONE FROM CENTRE ISLAND, 33NM TO THE NORTHWEST. TC 14P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTWESTWARD AND DEEPER INLAND. LAND INTERACTION WILL MOSTLY CAUSE ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 991 MB. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
-
-
-
-
ABIO10 PGTW 191130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/191130Z-191800ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190751ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZFEB2024// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 19FEB24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1013 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 190900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AT 19FEB24 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 54.6E, APPROXIMATELY 348 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 190300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 14P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.8S 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 378 NM EAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190951Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SHALLOW BANDING. REMNANTS OF 14P ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES POOR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF 14P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH POTENTIAL TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AS IT NEARS THE NORTHWEST AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED THE REMNANTS OF 14P AS A LOW IN PARAGRAPH 2.B.(1).// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-19 21:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
ABIO10 PGTW 191800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190751ZFEB2024// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191352ZFEB2024// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA) : A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 19FEB24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 1013 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 190900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AT 19FEB24 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 56.1E, APPROXIMATELY 361 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 191500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 14P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 128.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 372 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190951Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SHALLOW BANDING. REMNANTS OF 14P ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER LAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF 14P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD WITH POTENTIAL TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE AS IT NEARS THE NORTHWEST AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN
