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AXAU01 APRF 221846 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1846 UTC 22/02/2024 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln Identifier: 07U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 17.6S Longitude: 116.7E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (248 deg) Speed of Movement: 13 knots (25 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 998 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 23/0000: 17.9S 115.5E: 040 (075): 030 (055): 998 +12: 23/0600: 18.5S 114.6E: 050 (090): 035 (065): 997 +18: 23/1200: 19.3S 114.0E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 990 +24: 23/1800: 20.1S 113.5E: 055 (105): 050 (095): 986 +36: 24/0600: 22.3S 113.3E: 075 (140): 055 (100): 981 +48: 24/1800: 24.5S 113.9E: 105 (195): 035 (065): 995 +60: 25/0600: 26.5S 115.1E: 130 (240): 030 (055): 997 +72: 25/1800: 28.3S 116.5E: 185 (340): 030 (055): 997 +96: : : : : +120: : : : : REMARKS: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln (07U) hasn't shown any significant signs of development, despite deep convection persisting near the centre. Although, cloud tops have been warming in the last 3 hours. Position is based on animated proxy vis and earlier scatterometer and microwave imagery. Intensity of 25 kn is based on earlier ASCAT pass. Dvorak analysis is based on curved band 0.4-0.5 indicating DT=2.5. MET=2.5 based on D- 24h trend giving FT/CI=2.5. Objective aids: ADT 47 kn; AiDT 37 kn; DPRINT 50 kn (1-min mean). 07U is continuing to track to the west-southwest under the influence of a cradling mid-level ridge to the south. The track should become more southwest later today around the periphery of the ridge. On Saturday, an approaching upper trough will steer the system more south and then south-southeast to cross the WA coast. Confidence in the track forecast is high with agreement across the range of model guidance. The intensity forecast is less certain with lack of organisation despite presence of upper divergence and weak wind shear. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the track are 29-30C, decreasing to less than 28C off the Gascoyne coast. The system has maintained a decent low level circulation and development is very much dependent on organisation of deep convection. Being a small system, a period of rapid intensification can't be ruled out with 07U possibly becoming a severe tropical cyclone. Strengthening northerly shear coupled with the intrusion of dry air associated with the approaching upper trough is expected to weaken the system during Saturday and then with landfall, weakening should be rapid by Sunday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0130 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 am February 23 tropical low 17.6S 116.7E 45 +6hr 8 am February 23 tropical low 17.9S 115.5E 75 +12hr 2 pm February 23 1 18.5S 114.6E 90 +18hr 8 pm February 23 1 19.3S 114.0E 100 +24hr 2 am February 24 2 20.1S 113.5E 105 +36hr 2 pm February 24 2 22.3S 113.3E 140 +48hr 2 am February 25 1 24.5S 113.9E 195 +60hr 2 pm February 25 tropical low 26.5S 115.1E 240 +72hr 2 am February 26 tropical low 28.3S 116.5E 340 -
WTXS31 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 116.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 116.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 18.8S 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.6S 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.8S 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 25.1S 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 29.0S 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 115.9E. 22FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.7S 116.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 305 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P AS HAVING DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION AND LITTLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. A 221737Z AMSR-2 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A OVERALL BETTER LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE THAN THE EIR WOULD SUGGEST, WITH WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. HOWEVER, THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT VERY EVIDENT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, INDICATIVE OF A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR VECTOR AND DRY AIR FLOWING OFF THE CONTINENT. A 221415Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALED THAT THE WIND FIELD IS MUCH WEAKER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED, WITH THE SCATTEROMETER SHOWING 25-28 KNOT WINDS. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY (T2.5 OR 35 KTS) AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE MUCH HIGHER, RANGING FROM 40-47 KTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE DROPPED FROM 40 KTS TO 30 KTS TO BETTER MIRROR THE ASCAT IMAGE PREVIOSLY MENTIONED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE NOTED ABOVE SHOWING A CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 46 KTS AT 1800Z CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 1800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR TO THE EAST. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P HAS CONTINUED TO ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTH AS THE RIDGE REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. TC 14P WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TAU 48 AND WILL PASS WEST OF LEARMONTH AT AROUND TAU 36. TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48 TO THE SOUTH OF LEARMONTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS INLAND AUSTRALIA AFTER IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE AND DISSIPATE. REGARDING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KTS AT TAU 24 DUE TO LOW DEEP-LAYER VWS AND WARM SST. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS DUE TO VERY WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT CAUSED BY UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ACTING AS A BARRIER TO THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TAU 36, WHICH WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF THE WEAKENING TREND. AT TAU 48, VWS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 30 KTS AND LAND INTERACTION STARTS TO BECOME A FACTOR. AS A RESULT, TC 14P WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND NO LATER THAN TAU 72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 50 NM AT TAU 36 AND 80 NM AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS CONSIDERABLY WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 140 NM AT TAU 72 (NOT FACTORING IN UEMI, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD INSTEAD OF TAKING A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN). INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR RIGHT AROUND TAU 24-36, IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-23 06:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
AXAU01 APRF 230107 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0107 UTC 23/02/2024 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln Identifier: 07U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 17.9S Longitude: 115.2E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (255 deg) Speed of Movement: 14 knots (26 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 997 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 23/0600: 18.6S 114.3E: 035 (065): 035 (065): 997 +12: 23/1200: 19.4S 113.6E: 045 (080): 040 (075): 990 +18: 23/1800: 20.2S 113.2E: 050 (095): 045 (085): 986 +24: 24/0000: 21.3S 113.0E: 060 (115): 050 (095): 982 +36: 24/1200: 23.6S 113.3E: 080 (150): 050 (095): 985 +48: 25/0000: 25.8S 114.2E: 105 (195): 030 (055): 998 +60: 25/1200: 27.9S 115.6E: 130 (245): 030 (055): 997 +72: 26/0000: : : : +96: : : : : +120: : : : : REMARKS: Recent satellite images show some slight development of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln Position is based on animated VIS and earlier microwave imagery. Intensity of 30 kn is based mainly on Dvorak. Dvorak analysis has curved band 0.4 indicating DT=2.5. MET=2.0 based on S 24h trend, PAT is adjusted to 2.5. FT from DT/PAT, giving CI=2.5. Objective aids: ADT 51 kn; AiDT 39 kn; DPRINT 43 kn (1-min mean). 07U is continuing to track to the west-southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. The track should become more southwest later today around the periphery of the ridge. On Saturday, an approaching upper trough will steer the system more south and then south-southeast to cross the WA coast. Confidence in the track forecast is high with agreement across the range of model guidance. The intensity forecast is less certain with lack of organisation despite presence of upper divergence and weak wind shear. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the track are 29-30C, decreasing to less than 28C off the Gascoyne coast. The system has maintained a decent low level circulation and development is very much dependent on organisation of deep convection. Being a small system, a period of rapid intensification can't be ruled out with 07U possibly becoming a severe tropical cyclone. Though the risk of a severe system has reduced. Strengthening northerly shear coupled with the intrusion of dry air associated with the approaching upper trough is expected to weaken the system during late Saturday and then with landfall, weakening should be rapid by Sunday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0730 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 am February 23 tropical low 17.9S 115.2E 35 +6hr 2 pm February 23 1 18.6S 114.3E 65 +12hr 8 pm February 23 1 19.4S 113.6E 80 +18hr 2 am February 24 1 20.2S 113.2E 95 +24hr 8 am February 24 2 21.3S 113.0E 115 +36hr 8 pm February 24 2 23.6S 113.3E 150 +48hr 8 am February 25 tropical low 25.8S 114.2E 195 +60hr 8 pm February 25 tropical low 27.9S 115.6E 245 +72hr 8 am February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX -
WTXS31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 18.0S 115.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 115.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 19.4S 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 21.3S 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 23.5S 113.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 25.6S 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 28.6S 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 114.7E. 23FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.0S 115.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 264 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P AS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WELL-STRUCTURED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM HAS DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED, AS DEPICTED BY THE LACK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AREA. CONVECTIVE BURSTS WERE SEEN DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE ROTATION, BUT SO FAR HAVE FAILED TO WRAP UPSHEAR INTO THE DRY AIR. OUTFLOW ALOFT FOR 14P HAS REMAINED WEAK WITH NO DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 222204Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALING A BROAD CENTER WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE WEST FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON A 222204Z SMAP WINDSPEED IMAGE SHOWING 32 KTS (34 KTS WHEN CONVERTED TO 1-MINUTE AVERAGE). INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 0000Z CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 0000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P HAS CONTINUED ON ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD AT TAU 12 AS THE STR CHANGES ORIENTATION TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. AT AROUND TAU 24-36 THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OF LEARMONTH AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AT TAU 48, TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO START A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN, MAKE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF LEARMONTH, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 14P IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING VERY LOW DEEP-LAYER VWS AND WARM SST, WHICH HAS HELPED ORGANIZE THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR AROUND TAU 24 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KTS. WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR HAVE REMAINED THE MAIN FACTOR IN HINDERING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 48, VWS INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KTS, COOLING SST, AND LOWERING OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 60 NM AT TAU 36 AND A 70 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN MUCH LESS AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 140 NM AT TAU 72. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT MIXED, WITH THE SHIPS (BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS) DEPICTING A NEAR-RAPID PACE OF INTENSIFICATION, UP TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36, WHILE THE MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING COAMPS-TC, HWRF AND HAFS-A DEPICT A SLOWER PACE OF INTENSIFICATION AND LOWER PEAK BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE BUT WELL BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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AXAU01 APRF 230704 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0703 UTC 23/02/2024 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln Identifier: 07U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 18.6S Longitude: 114.0E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: west southwest (243 deg) Speed of Movement: 13 knots (25 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 997 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 23/1200: 19.4S 113.3E: 040 (070): 035 (065): 992 +12: 23/1800: 20.4S 112.9E: 045 (085): 040 (075): 986 +18: 24/0000: 21.5S 112.7E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 983 +24: 24/0600: 22.7S 112.7E: 060 (110): 045 (085): 982 +36: 24/1800: 25.0S 113.4E: 080 (145): 035 (065): 993 +48: 25/0600: 27.0S 114.8E: 105 (190): 030 (055): 997 +60: 25/1800: : : : +72: 26/0600: : : : +96: : : : : +120: : : : : REMARKS: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln has struggled to develop in an unfavourable environment. Position is based on animated VIS. Intensity of 30 kn is based mainly on Dvorak. Dvorak analysis has curved band 0.2-0.3 indicating DT=2.0. MET=2.5 based on S 24h trend, PAT is adjusted to 2.0. FT=2.0 from DT/PAT, holding CI at 2.5. Objective aids: ADT 53 kn; AiDT 41 kn; DPRINT 38 kn (1-min mean). However, it's important to note that the ADT and AiDT values appear to be based on an incorrect Dvorak pattern assessment, resulting in intensity estimates that are too high and do not align with observations from scatterometry. 07U is continuing to track to the west-southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. The track should become more southerly tonight around the periphery of the ridge. On Saturday, an approaching upper trough will steer the system more south-southeast to cross the WA coast. Confidence in the track forecast is high with agreement across the range of model guidance. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the track are 29-30C, decreasing to less than 28C off the Gascoyne coast. 07U has maintained a decent low level circulation but has struggled with the lack of organisation. Given the lack of development the risk of the system intensifying to a severe tropical cyclone is unlikely. Strengthening northerly shear coupled with the intrusion of dry air associated with the approaching upper trough is expected to weaken the system during late Saturday and then with landfall, weakening should be rapid by Sunday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1330 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 pm February 23 tropical low 18.6S 114.0E 45 +6hr 8 pm February 23 1 19.4S 113.3E 70 +12hr 2 am February 24 1 20.4S 112.9E 85 +18hr 8 am February 24 1 21.5S 112.7E 100 +24hr 2 pm February 24 1 22.7S 112.7E 110 +36hr 2 am February 25 tropical low 25.0S 113.4E 145 +48hr 2 pm February 25 tropical low 27.0S 114.8E 190 +60hr 2 am February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX +72hr 2 pm February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX -
WTXS31 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 113.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 113.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.4S 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 22.4S 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.7S 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 26.5S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 29.4S 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 113.5E. 23FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 217 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE- HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.7S 113.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 217 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (LINCOLN) CONTINUING TO SHOW DEEP, CENTRAL PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE DEEPEST ELEMENTS OF CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS OBSERVED IN A 230609Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO VERY LOW (0 - 5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THOUGH VWS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE, NUMERICAL MODEL INDICATED DRY AIR IS OBSERVED ENTRAINING THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES, WITH COASTAL STATION OBSERVATIONS REPORTING AS LOW AS 47 PCT RELATIVE HUMIDITY (MARDIE, AUS) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 230551Z AMSR2 36.5 GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 230217Z PARTIAL METOP-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, SOUTHEAST OF THE ASSESSED LLCC. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS DPRINT: 38 KTS AT 230700Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR LOCATED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. ALONG TRACK, AND SUBMERGED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE TC IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO 40KTS BY TAU 12 AND MAINTAIN UNTIL JUST AFTER TAU 36. FAVORABLE VWS AND SST CONTINUE TO OFFSET MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY (50-60 PCT) AND POOR DIVERGENCE THROUGH TAU 12, AT WHICH POINT AN INCREASE IN VWS TO MODERATE LEVELS (15-20) BY TAU 24 WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE. LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN SOUTHERN SHARK BAY, AUSTRALIA NEAR TAU 48 AS A 30KTS DISSIPATED TROPICAL CYCLONE (DEPRESSION STRENGTH AND INTENSITY). MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TIGHT CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 40NM IS PRESENT AT TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 89NM CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA (240500Z). HOWEVER, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD DIVERGES BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS TO APPROXIMATELY 158 NM, OFFERING MODERATE (MEDIUM) CONFIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST INTERVAL (TAU 00 TO TAU 72). WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THE LARGEST INTENSITY SPREAD OF 15KTS IS PRESENT AT TAU 36, SUGGESTING MODERATE (MEDIUM) CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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AXAU01 APRF 231254 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1254 UTC 23/02/2024 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln Identifier: 07U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 19.1S Longitude: 113.5E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: southwest (218 deg) Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 998 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 23/1800: 20.1S 113.1E: 040 (070): 035 (065): 997 +12: 24/0000: 21.1S 112.9E: 050 (090): 040 (075): 995 +18: 24/0600: 22.3S 112.9E: 055 (105): 040 (075): 994 +24: 24/1200: 23.5S 113.2E: 060 (110): 040 (075): 994 +36: 25/0000: 25.6S 114.2E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 1000 +48: 25/1200: 27.5S 115.8E: 095 (175): 025 (045): 1002 +60: 26/0000: : : : +72: 26/1200: : : : +96: : : : : +120: : : : : REMARKS: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln has not developed over the last 24 hours. Position is based on animated satellite imagery and recent microwave passes. Dvorak analysis has curved band 0.3-0.4 indicating DT=2.5. MET=2.5 based on S 24h trend, PAT is left at 2.5, FT/CI is at 2.5. Objective aids: ADT 55 kn; AiDT 45 kn; DMINT 39 kn; DPRINT 45 kn (1-min mean). Intensity is based on recent scat passes and Dvorak and remains at 30 knots. The movement of 07U has been dominated by the mid-level ridge but this ridge is being eroded by an amplifying mid-level trough to the west of Australia. This explains 07us recent turn to the south southwest, this motion is forecast to continue through Saturday. Later Saturday the mid-level trough will steer the system more south-southeast to cross the WA coast. Confidence in the track forecast is high with agreement across the range of model guidance. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the track are 29-30C, decreasing to less than 28C off the Gascoyne coast. 07U has maintained a decent low level circulation but has not been able to sustain any deep, cold convection near the centre. Recent imagery indicates some convection persisting for a few hours in the SW quadrant and there is still a reasonable chance that 07U could intensity into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours. Strengthening northerly shear coupled with the intrusion of dry air associated with the approaching upper trough is expected to weaken the system during late Saturday and then with landfall, weakening should be rapid by Sunday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1930 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 pm February 23 tropical low 19.1S 113.5E 45 +6hr 2 am February 24 1 20.1S 113.1E 70 +12hr 8 am February 24 1 21.1S 112.9E 90 +18hr 2 pm February 24 1 22.3S 112.9E 105 +24hr 8 pm February 24 1 23.5S 113.2E 110 +36hr 8 am February 25 tropical low 25.6S 114.2E 110 +48hr 8 pm February 25 tropical low 27.5S 115.8E 175 +60hr 8 am February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX +72hr 8 pm February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX 最后于 2024-02-23 21:35:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 18.8S 113.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 113.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.7S 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.8S 113.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.8S 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 113.5E. 23FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.8S 113.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 212 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231035Z SSMIS 89 GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (LINCOLN) EXHIBITING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. BETWEEN 230900Z AND 231200Z, INTERMITTENT EXPLOSIVE FLARING CONVECTION EMERGED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. LOW (0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO A SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TILTED VORTEX. AS INDICATED BY NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT EVIDENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE MID-LEVELS OF TC 14P, RESTRAINING THE SYSTEM FROM FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (29-30 C), THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 231149Z GMI 89 GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 231130Z CIMSS DPRINT: 45 KTS AT 231100Z CIMSS DMINT: 39 KTS AT 231148Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 0-5 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 36. IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (TAU 00) TO MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT (TAU 06), 14P IS ANTICIPATED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE TC, COMING TO DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 36 OVER LAND. LANDFALL IS FORECAST TO OCCUR 112NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA WITH AN INTENSITY BETWEEN 35 KTS AND 30 KTS. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 14P WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 00 TO 12, MAINTAINING INTENSITY ALONG-TRACK. COAMPS-TC IS THE ONLY INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBER SUGGESTING A 5KTS RISE IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 24, AND ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TC BEGINS DISSIPATION OVER WATER. TURNING TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FROM TAU 24 TO 36, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COMPLETE DISSIPATION OCCURS PRIOR TO TAU 36. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 36 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 36 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-24 04:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
AXAU01 APRF 231935 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1934 UTC 23/02/2024 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln Identifier: 07U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 19.9S Longitude: 113.4E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: south southwest (193 deg) Speed of Movement: 8 knots (15 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 1000 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W00.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/0000: 20.8S 113.2E: 040 (075): 035 (065): 998 +12: 24/0600: 22.0S 113.1E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 998 +18: 24/1200: 23.1S 113.5E: 060 (110): 030 (055): 1001 +24: 24/1800: 24.1S 113.7E: 065 (125): 025 (045): 1003 +36: 25/0600: 26.2S 114.7E: 085 (155): 020 (035): 1005 +48: 25/1800: : : : +60: 26/0600: : : : +72: 26/1800: : : : +96: : : : : +120: : : : : REMARKS: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln continues to struggle to develop as it approaches the Australian northwest coast. Position is only approximately based on animated satellite imagery and extrapolated motion since earlier HSCAT and microwave (GMI 1149UTC) imagery. Intensity 30kn based on earlier HSCAT scatterometry supported by Dvorak analysis FT/CI=2.0/2.5. DT not clear cut without curvature on EIR. MET=2.0 based on slight weakening 24h trend. Objective aids generally continue to provide anomalously high estimates for this system: ADT 49 kn; AiDT 43 kn; DMINT 39 kn; DPRINT 36 kn (1-min mean). The low is expected to track to the south as the mid-level ridge to the east gives way to an amplifying mid-level trough to the west of Australia. Within 12-24h the mid-level trough will steer the system more south-southeast to cross the WA coast. Confidence in the track forecast is high with agreement across the range of model guidance. The circulation has failed to developed despite some favourable influences of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of ~28C, low wind shear and an established low level circulation. Deep convection has failed to become organised and sustained about the centre in the absence of significant low level moist inflow. There remains some opportunity in the next 6-12h for convection to become more enhanced especially with increasing upper level divergent flow poleward and sector gales may briefly occur. However, the window of opportunity is less than 12 h before higher wind shear allows dry air to intrude the core and then landfall lead to the demise of the circulation. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0130 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 am February 24 tropical low 19.9S 113.4E 45 +6hr 8 am February 24 tropical low 20.8S 113.2E 75 +12hr 2 pm February 24 tropical low 22.0S 113.1E 100 +18hr 8 pm February 24 tropical low 23.1S 113.5E 110 +24hr 2 am February 25 tropical low 24.1S 113.7E 125 +36hr 2 pm February 25 tropical low 26.2S 114.7E 155 +48hr 2 am February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX +60hr 2 pm February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX +72hr 2 am February 27 tropical low XXX XXX XXX -
WTXS31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 113.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 113.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 21.5S 113.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 23.6S 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 25.7S 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 113.3E. 23FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.5S 113.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 173 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED CIRA PROXY VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF VIGOROUS BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS HAS HAMPERED IDENTIFICATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OLDER SSMIS DATA SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROAD LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BASED ON THE PGTW FIX, HOWEVER, MULTI-AGENCY FIX SPREAD IS LARGE, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE POSITIONING. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AS IT ROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS GIVEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES OF T2.5. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE WAS LARGELY HIGHER, AND DEEMED UNREPRESENTATIVE BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ADDITIONALLY, THE PREVIOUS BEST TRACK WAS RE-ANALYZED DOWN TO 35 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS, AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO A SLIGHTLY POLEWARD TILTED VORTEX. THE GFS INDICATES A TONGUE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. DESPITE FAVORABLE SSTS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, TC 14P HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN A CONSOLIDATED LLCC. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK. R34 WAS REDUCED BASED ON REANALYSIS OF PRIOR INTENSITY DOWN TO 35 KNOTS. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: MID-LEVEL STR TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 230930Z CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 231930Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ROUNDING THE STR, PRIMARILY TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MAKING LANDFALL. MULTI-MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVEN THE STRAIGHT-FORWARD STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE PEAK INTENSITY WAS HELD TO 35 KNOTS. TC LINCOLN HAS A SHORT WINDOW REMAINING FOR INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST SHOULD TAMPER ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. RAPID DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED POST-LANDFALL. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE OVER-ANALYZED IN THE GFS MODEL. ECMWF APPEARS TO BE MORE REALISTICALLY ANALYZING THE BROAD AND POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC, AND THIS MODEL IS LESS AGGRESSIVE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL ANALYSIS, GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN