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AXAU01 APRF 240126 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0126 UTC 24/02/2024 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln Identifier: 07U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 20.9S Longitude: 113.2E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: south (191 deg) Speed of Movement: 10 knots (19 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h) Central Pressure: 1000 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 24/0600: 22.1S 113.2E: 045 (080): 030 (055): 998 +12: 24/1200: 23.2S 113.5E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 999 +18: 24/1800: 24.2S 113.8E: 065 (120): 025 (045): 1002 +24: 25/0000: 25.2S 114.2E: 075 (135): 020 (035): 1004 +36: 25/1200: 26.7S 115.4E: 090 (165): 020 (035): 1004 +48: 26/0000: : : : +60: 26/1200: : : : +72: 27/0000: : : : +96: : : : : +120: : : : : REMARKS: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln continues to struggle to develop as it approaches the Australian northwest coast. Position is only approximate based on animated satellite imagery and extrapolated motion with cold overcast obscuring the LLCC. Intensity 30kn based on nearby surface observations. DT not clear cut without curvature on EIR and the deep convection displaced to the southwest of the centre. MET=2.5 based on steady 24h trend. PAT is 2.0 with FT based on PAT and CI now lowered to 2.0 as FT has plateaued for over 6 hours . Objective aids generally continue to provide high estimates for this system: ADT 49 kn; AiDT 40 kn; DMINT 36 kn; DPRINT 33 kn (1-min mean). The low is moving south and expected to curve to the southeast, across the WA coast during today as the mid-level ridge to the east gives way to an amplifying mid-level trough to the west of Australia. Confidence in the track forecast is high with agreement across the range of model guidance. The circulation has failed to develop despite some favourable influences of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of ~28C, low wind shear and an established low level circulation. Deep convection has improved in the past six hours but there is limited opportunity for further improvement before higher wind shear allows dry air to intrude the core and then landfall leads to the demise of the circulation. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0730 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 am February 24 tropical low 20.9S 113.2E 55 +6hr 2 pm February 24 tropical low 22.1S 113.2E 80 +12hr 8 pm February 24 tropical low 23.2S 113.5E 100 +18hr 2 am February 25 tropical low 24.2S 113.8E 120 +24hr 8 am February 25 tropical low 25.2S 114.2E 135 +36hr 8 pm February 25 tropical low 26.7S 115.4E 165 +48hr 8 am February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX +60hr 8 pm February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX +72hr 8 am February 27 tropical low XXX XXX XXX 最后于 2024-02-24 09:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 113.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 113.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.4S 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.3S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 113.3E. 24FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW). // NNNN
WDXS31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.2S 113.3E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 134 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST OBSCURING A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 232131Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PASS REVEALED DEEP CONVECTION IS CONSTRAINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHILE LOW LEVEL BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HELPED TO SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITIONING WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING A SOUTHWARD TRACK AS IT ROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY PICKING UP AT LEARMONTH AIRPORT, AND ARE CURRENTLY 26 KNOTS WITH A MSLP OF 1005 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS GIVEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE WAS LARGELY HIGHER, AND DEEMED UNREPRESENTATIVE BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. THE GFS INDICATES MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENCROACHING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. SSTS HAVE DROPPED TO BETWEEN 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND QUICKLY APPROACHING A COOLER TONGUE OF 25 TO 26 DEGREE WATERS INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: STR TO THE EAST AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 240100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING PRIMARILY SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF CORAL BAY. MULTI-MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVEN THE STRAIGHT-FORWARD STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LINCOLN TO MAINTAIN 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH COOLER SSTS AND CONTINUED INFUSION OF DRY AIR SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STEADY OR WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-24 12:00:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
IDW24100 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning. PRIORITY TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 21 Issued at 11:37 am WST on Saturday 24 February 2024 Headline: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln to remain a tropical low. Areas Affected: Warning Zone None. Watch Zone None. Cancelled Zone Giralia to Cape Cuvier including Exmouth. Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln at 11:00 am AWST: Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour. Location: within 45 kilometres of 21.5 degrees South 113.1 degrees East, estimated to be 115 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth and 380 kilometres north of Carnarvon. Movement: south at 21 kilometres per hour. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lincoln is moving south and will pass to the west of the Exmouth-Ningaloo area before crossing the Gascoyne coast between Coral Bay and Cape Cuvier tonight. The system is expected to remain a tropical low but may cause a period of strong winds especially to the Ningaloo coast during Saturday. Hazards: Refer to Severe Weather Warning at http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ Recommended Action: DFES advises of the following community alerts (effective as of 11:30am): BLUE ALERT: Nil YELLOW ALERT: Nil ALL CLEAR: for people Northwest Cape to Cape Cuvier (including Exmouth, Coral Bay and Giralia). Next Advice: No further advices will be issued for this system. Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337) A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 11 am February 24 tropical low 21.5S 113.1E 45 +6hr 5 pm February 24 tropical low 22.7S 113.2E 70 +12hr 11 pm February 24 tropical low 23.7S 113.5E 90 +18hr 5 am February 25 tropical low 24.7S 113.9E 110 +24hr 11 am February 25 tropical low 25.6S 114.4E 125 +36hr 11 pm February 25 tropical low 27.1S 115.7E 135 +48hr 11 am February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX +60hr 11 pm February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX +72hr 11 am February 27 tropical low XXX XXX XXX -
WTXS31 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 22.2S 113.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 113.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.5S 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 26.6S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8S 113.3E. 24FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (LINCOLN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 56 NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. LEARMONTH (YPLM) SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LLCC IS LOCATED ABOUT 54 NM WEST AS WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTH (20-25 KTS SUSTAINED) OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE 232300Z LEARMONTH UPPER-AIR SOUNDING SHOWS VERY DRY MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY (700MB-500MB), AIDING IN THE RAPID DECAY OF CORE CONVECTION. TC LINCOLN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 24 AROUND THE WELL- ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL STEADILY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT AND LAND INTERACTION DECREASES MAX WINDS TO A FORECASTED 25 KTS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 13 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW).// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-24 15:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 5 pm February 24 tropical low 22.7S 113.3E 35 +6hr 11 pm February 24 tropical low 23.8S 113.7E 65 +12hr 5 am February 25 tropical low 24.8S 114.1E 85 +18hr 11 am February 25 tropical low 25.8S 114.6E 105 +24hr 5 pm February 25 tropical low XXX XXX XXX +36hr 5 am February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX +48hr 5 pm February 26 tropical low XXX XXX XXX +60hr 5 am February 27 tropical low XXX XXX XXX +72hr 5 pm February 27 tropical low XXX XXX XXX -
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