GALE WARNING 051 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 140706 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.2S 165.8W AT
140600UTC. POSITION POOR. TD10F SLOW MOVING. 

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 60 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES
AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT
24 TO 30 HOURS.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THIS SYSTEM. 

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD10F CENTRE [1001HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S

165.8W AT 140600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9 HR VIS/EIR

IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD10F SLOW MOVING.

TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER

DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30

DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND KEEP IT

SLOW MOVING WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS

SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS

LOW AND MODERATE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9S 
167.7W, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140838Z 89GHZ GMI SATELLITE 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH 
PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH 
WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, 
AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 
28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GALE WARNING 052 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 141236 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.4S 167.1W AT
141200UTC. POSITION POOR. TD10F SLOW MOVING. 

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING WITHIN 60 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES
AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT
24 TO 30 HOURS.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THIS SYSTEM. 

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING NUMBER 051.

WTPS11 NFFN 141800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 142013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 167.2W
AT 141800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SE AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. 
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.   

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS OVER
SUPPOSED LLCC WITH ORGANISATION IMPROVING. PRIMARY BANDS EVIDENT
TRYING TO WRAP ITSELF ONTO NORTHWEST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. TD10F LIES IN
A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. 

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVING IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS
HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP WITH DT 2.5. PT AND MET
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 17.5S 166.1W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 19.3S 164.5W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 21.3S 162.3W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 23.2S 160.1W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 150200 UTC.

WTPS11 NFFN 142100 CCA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 142239 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 167.2W
AT 141800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  DEPRESSION MOVING SE AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. 
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.   

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS OVER
SUPPOSED LLCC WITH ORGANISATION IMPROVING. PRIMARY BANDS EVIDENT
TRYING TO WRAP ITSELF ONTO NORTHWEST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. TD10F LIES IN
A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. 

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVING IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS
HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP WITH DT 2.5. PT AND MET
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 17.5S 166.1W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 19.3S 164.5W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 21.3S 162.3W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 23.2S 160.1W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 150200 UTC.

WTPS11 NFFN 150000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 150056 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 166.3W
AT 150000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  DEPRESSION MOVING SE AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. 
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.   

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS OVER
SUPPOSED LLCC WITH ORGANISATION IMPROVING. PRIMARY BANDS EVIDENT
TRYING TO WRAP ITSELF FROM SOUTHEAST ONTO NORTHWEST SECTOR OF
SUPPOSED LLCC. 
TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM
AND MOVING IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP
WITH DT 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT YIELDS
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 16.9S 165.0W MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 18.7S 162.9W MOV SE AT 11 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 21.0S 159.9W MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 24.0S 156.5W MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080000 UTC.

ABPW10 PGTW 150130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/150130Z-150600ZFEB2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.5S 137.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 137.9W, APPROXIMATELY 94 NM 
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 142031Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDS 
OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MARGINAL VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL 
GENERALLY TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA THEN 
INTERACTING WITH LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9S 167.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM 
NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141707Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-10 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO MEDIUM//
NNNN

WTPS21 PGTW 150530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 166.9W TO 22.0S 160.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 166.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2S 166.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 258 NM 
NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI )SHOWS A 
DEVELOPING SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE MSI LOOP AND THE 
150006Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOW FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO THE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STRONG 
DUAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160530Z.
//
NNNN

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZFEB2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150521ZFEB2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.6S 137.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 137.9E, APPROXIMATELY 104 NM 
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 142031Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A QUICKLY 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAIN BANDS 
BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (5-
10 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL GENERALLY 
HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2S 166.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 258 NM 
NORTHEAST OF NIUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
SHOWS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON 
TROUGH AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE MSI 
LOOP AND THE 150006Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOW FORMATIVE 
RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL 
GENERALLY HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 150530) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

WTPS11 NFFN 150600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 150757 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 166.3W
AT 150600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS. 
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS.   

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH SIGNS OF
GRADUAL WARMING. PRIMARY BANDS EVIDENT TRYING TO WRAP ITSELF ONTO
NORTHWEST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. TD10F LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. 

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVING IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS
HIGH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP WITH DT 2.5. PT AND MET
AGREE. FT BASED ON DT YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 17.2S 164.6W MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 19.4S 162.1W MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 22.0S 159.0W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 25.0S 155.9W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 151400 UTC.