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WTPS11 NFFN 151200 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 151327 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 165.3W AT 151200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. PRIMARY BANDS EVIDENT TRYING TO WRAP ITSELF FROM THE NORTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC. TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVING IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH THEN DECREASES THEREAFTER. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP WITH DT 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 18.3S 163.2W MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 20.7S 160.4W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 23.6S 157.3W MOV SE AT 21 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 26.5S 154.7W MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 152000UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 pm February 15 tropical low 16.3S 165.3W 95 +6hr 6 pm February 15 1 17.2S 164.5W 120 +12hr 12 am February 16 1 18.3S 163.2W 150 +18hr 6 am February 16 1 19.4S 161.9W 175 +24hr 12 pm February 16 1 20.7S 160.4W 205 +36hr 12 am February 17 1 23.6S 157.3W 265 +48hr 12 pm February 17 tropical low 26.5S 154.7W 325 +60hr 12 am February 18 tropical low 28.7S 152.3W 410 +72hr 12 pm February 18 tropical low 30.3S 149.5W 500 最后于 2024-02-16 04:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS11 NFFN 151800 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 151915 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 164.1W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ITSELF FROM THE NORTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC TO THE WESTERN SECTOR. TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH THEN DECREASES THEREAFTER. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON WRAP OF 0.4 WITH DT 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 19.0S 161.5W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 21.8S 158.3W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 24.9S 155.1W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 27.5S 152.5W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 160200UTC.
WTPS11 NFFN 151800 CCA TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 152021 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 164.1W AT 151800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ITSELF FROM THE NORTH OF SUPPOSED LLCC TO THE WESTERN SECTOR. TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH THEN DECREASES THEREAFTER. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON WRAP OF 0.4 WITH DT 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, YIELDS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 19.0S 161.5W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 21.8S 158.3W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 24.9S 155.1W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 27.5S 152.5W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 160200UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 pm February 15 tropical low 16.7S 164.1W 110 +6hr 12 am February 16 tropical low 17.7S 163.0W 140 +12hr 6 am February 16 1 19.0S 161.5W 165 +18hr 12 pm February 16 1 20.2S 160.0W 195 +24hr 6 pm February 16 1 21.8S 158.3W 220 +36hr 6 am February 17 1 24.9S 155.1W 280 +48hr 6 pm February 17 tropical low 27.5S 152.5W 345 +60hr 6 am February 18 tropical low 29.4S 149.8W 430 +72hr 6 pm February 18 tropical low 30.8S 146.8W 520 最后于 2024-02-16 09:20:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150321ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 17.0S 164.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 164.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 19.2S 161.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 21.6S 158.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 25.4S 154.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 28.5S 152.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 163.8W. 15FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 333 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 150330).// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.0S 164.5W INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 333 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NIUE MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN) MODERATELY CONSOLIDATING WITH CONTINUING FLARING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OVERSHOOTING TOPS LOCATED OVERHEAD AND JUST NORTH OF THE ASSESSED SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN 27C AND 29C WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS, HOWEVER, TWO REGIONS OF OBSERVABLE ENHANCED VWS IS EVIDENT ON THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, INDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG VWS (25-30 KNOTS) LOCATED DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE OVERALL TC STRUCTURE. MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PREVALENT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 151651Z 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHILE THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WAS CONFIRMED ON AN EARLIER 151235Z AMSR2 PASS. THE INTITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STR STEER THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BEGINNING TAU 24, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS (24C-26C) AND START ITS TRANSITION TO BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 48, AS ENHANCED THERMAL ADVECTION IS FORECASTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN. AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 24, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO NEAR 50 KNOTS AS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27C-29C) AID IN SLOW DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER, INCREASING VWS (25-30 KNOTS), COOLER AND DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE, AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SST (24C-26C) TO THE SOUTH WILL ASSIST IN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND TAU 48. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 15P WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48 AS STEERING MECHANISMS FORCE THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE JTWC TRACK CONSENSUS AT TAU 24 DISPLAYS A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 50 NM, WHILE TAU 48 INCREASES TO 100 NM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE 0-48 INTERVAL. THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS REFLECT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST, WITH AN INTENSITY SPREAD OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING A MAX INTENSITY OF BETWEEN 45-50 KNOTS, AND STEADILY DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS COMPLETE THE CYCLONE'S EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-16 06:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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WTPS33 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 17.8S 163.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S 163.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 20.1S 160.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 23.2S 156.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 26.9S 153.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 162.5W. 16FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (FOURTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 17.8S 163.3W INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 284 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS APPROACHING A MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL ZONE ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A 1929Z GMI MICROWAVE PASS AND A 2356Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS SHOW THAT TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING EXISTS NEAR THE LLCC BUT IS ONLY WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES, LIKELY DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KTS BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TOWARDS THE JET STREAK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AITUTAKI ISLAND ABOUT 210 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN OBSERVING SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 21-22 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 152340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P IS ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL INITIATE THE PROCESS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS VERTICAL SHEAR AND BAROCLINICITY DRAMATICALLY INCREASE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 15P WILL BECOME A FRONTAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WINDS TO AROUND 45 KT DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELD, WHICH DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO AGREE ON. MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITSY FORECASTS, AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-16 10:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS11 NFFN 160600 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 160752 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 162.1W AT 160600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ITSELF FROM THE EAST OF LLCC. TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH THEN DECREASES THEREAFTER. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON WRAP OF 0.4 WITH DT 2.5. WITH MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 20.9S 158.7W MOV SE AT 22 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 24.1S 155.4W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 26.8S 152.7W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 28.7S 150.0W MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 161400UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 am February 16 tropical low 18.1S 162.1W 130 +6hr 12 pm February 16 1 19.4S 160.5W 155 +12hr 6 pm February 16 1 20.9S 158.7W 185 +18hr 12 am February 17 1 22.5S 156.9W 215 +24hr 6 am February 17 1 24.1S 155.4W 240 +36hr 6 pm February 17 tropical low 26.8S 152.7W 300 +48hr 6 am February 18 tropical low 28.7S 150.0W 360 +60hr 6 pm February 18 tropical low 30.1S 146.8W 450 +72hr 6 am February 19 tropical low 31.5S 143.5W 535 最后于 2024-02-16 15:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 160.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 160.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 23.8S 156.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 28.0S 153.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 159.7W. 16FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z.// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.3S 160.6W INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 70 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTREMELY ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT SPANS 460NM NW-SE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 160847Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING AN OBLONG CIRCULATION WITH A PATCH OF 40-KNOT WIND BARBS 40NM TO THE NORTHEAST. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG DUAL-OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG VWS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS NFFN: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 15P WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR TO THE EAST. THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 24 WILL BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN SPREAD TO 65NM BY TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-17 05:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS11 NFFN 161200 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 161312 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 159.5W AT 161200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 32 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ITSELF FROM THE EAST OF LLCC. TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH THEN DECREASES THEREAFTER. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON WRAP OF 0.4 WITH DT 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS, YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 22.7S 154.8W MOV ESE AT 26 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 29.3S 150.4W MOV SE AT 31 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 36.0S 146.0W MOV SE AT 33 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 42.7S 141.6W MOV SE AT 34 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 162000UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 pm February 16 tropical low 20.1S 159.5W 130 +6hr 6 pm February 16 1 21.2S 157.0W 155 +12hr 12 am February 17 1 22.7S 154.8W 185 +18hr 6 am February 17 1 26.0S 152.6W 215 +24hr 12 pm February 17 tropical low 29.3S 150.4W 240 +36hr 12 am February 18 tropical low 36.0S 146.0W 300 +48hr 12 pm February 18 tropical low 42.7S 141.6W 360 +60hr 12 am February 19 tropical low 49.4S 137.2W 450 +72hr 12 pm February 19 tropical low XXX XXX XXX