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WTPS11 NFFN 160600 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 160752 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1S 162.1W AT 160600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ITSELF FROM THE EAST OF LLCC. TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH THEN DECREASES THEREAFTER. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON WRAP OF 0.4 WITH DT 2.5. WITH MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 20.9S 158.7W MOV SE AT 22 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 24.1S 155.4W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 26.8S 152.7W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 28.7S 150.0W MOV ESE AT 15 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 161400UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 am February 16 tropical low 18.1S 162.1W 130 +6hr 12 pm February 16 1 19.4S 160.5W 155 +12hr 6 pm February 16 1 20.9S 158.7W 185 +18hr 12 am February 17 1 22.5S 156.9W 215 +24hr 6 am February 17 1 24.1S 155.4W 240 +36hr 6 pm February 17 tropical low 26.8S 152.7W 300 +48hr 6 am February 18 tropical low 28.7S 150.0W 360 +60hr 6 pm February 18 tropical low 30.1S 146.8W 450 +72hr 6 am February 19 tropical low 31.5S 143.5W 535 最后于 2024-02-16 15:55:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS33 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 160.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 160.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 23.8S 156.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 28.0S 153.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 159.7W. 16FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z.// NNNN
WDPS33 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 20.3S 160.6W INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 70 NM NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTREMELY ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT SPANS 460NM NW-SE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MONSOON TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 160847Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING AN OBLONG CIRCULATION WITH A PATCH OF 40-KNOT WIND BARBS 40NM TO THE NORTHEAST. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND STRONG DUAL-OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG VWS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS NFFN: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 20-25 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 15P WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR TO THE EAST. THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 12 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 24 WILL BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN SPREAD TO 65NM BY TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-17 05:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTPS11 NFFN 161200 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 161312 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1S 159.5W AT 161200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 32 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ITSELF FROM THE EAST OF LLCC. TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH THEN DECREASES THEREAFTER. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON WRAP OF 0.4 WITH DT 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS, YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 22.7S 154.8W MOV ESE AT 26 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 29.3S 150.4W MOV SE AT 31 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 36.0S 146.0W MOV SE AT 33 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 42.7S 141.6W MOV SE AT 34 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 162000UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 12 pm February 16 tropical low 20.1S 159.5W 130 +6hr 6 pm February 16 1 21.2S 157.0W 155 +12hr 12 am February 17 1 22.7S 154.8W 185 +18hr 6 am February 17 1 26.0S 152.6W 215 +24hr 12 pm February 17 tropical low 29.3S 150.4W 240 +36hr 12 am February 18 tropical low 36.0S 146.0W 300 +48hr 12 pm February 18 tropical low 42.7S 141.6W 360 +60hr 12 am February 19 tropical low 49.4S 137.2W 450 +72hr 12 pm February 19 tropical low XXX XXX XXX -
WTPS11 NFFN 161800 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 161856 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 158.1W AT 161800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ITSELF FROM THE EAST OF LLCC. TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH THEN DECREASES THEREAFTER. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS, YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 26.0S 153.7W MOV SE AT 31 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 32.7S 149.3W MOV SE AT 35 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 39.4S 144.9W MOV SSE AT 36 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 46.1S 140.5W MOV SSE AT 36 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 170200UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 pm February 16 tropical low 21.2S 158.1W 130 +6hr 12 am February 17 1 22.7S 155.9W 155 +12hr 6 am February 17 1 26.0S 153.7W 185 +18hr 12 pm February 17 tropical low 29.4S 151.5W 215 +24hr 6 pm February 17 tropical low 32.7S 149.3W 240 +36hr 6 am February 18 tropical low 39.4S 144.9W 300 +48hr 6 pm February 18 tropical low 46.1S 140.5W 360 +60hr 6 am February 19 tropical low 51.7S 136.5W 450 +72hr 6 pm February 19 tropical low XXX XXX XXX -
WTPS33 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 23.4S 155.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 29 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 155.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 27.3S 152.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 154.3W. 17FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT 15P HAS COMPLETED SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT), AS EVIDENCED BY THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST EXPOSING THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY, MANUAL AND AUTOMATED PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS SUPPORT THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED STT WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. 15P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO ITS POSITION BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. 15P HAS INTENSIFIED TO 45 KTS AS SHOWN IN A 161957Z ASCAT IMAGE, BUT WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE ONCE IT STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 20 FEET.// NNNN
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ABPW10 PGTW 180600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZFEB2024// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 15P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 29.3S 152.5W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE NNNN
最后于 2024-02-18 15:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
