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WTPS11 NFFN 161800 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 161856 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 158.1W AT 161800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING ITSELF FROM THE EAST OF LLCC. TD10F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH THEN DECREASES THEREAFTER. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS, YIELDS T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 26.0S 153.7W MOV SE AT 31 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 32.7S 149.3W MOV SE AT 35 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC 39.4S 144.9W MOV SSE AT 36 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 46.1S 140.5W MOV SSE AT 36 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 170200UTC.
Time (UTC) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 6 pm February 16 tropical low 21.2S 158.1W 130 +6hr 12 am February 17 1 22.7S 155.9W 155 +12hr 6 am February 17 1 26.0S 153.7W 185 +18hr 12 pm February 17 tropical low 29.4S 151.5W 215 +24hr 6 pm February 17 tropical low 32.7S 149.3W 240 +36hr 6 am February 18 tropical low 39.4S 144.9W 300 +48hr 6 pm February 18 tropical low 46.1S 140.5W 360 +60hr 6 am February 19 tropical low 51.7S 136.5W 450 +72hr 6 pm February 19 tropical low XXX XXX XXX -
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WTPS33 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 23.4S 155.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 29 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 155.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 27.3S 152.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 154.3W. 17FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT 15P HAS COMPLETED SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT), AS EVIDENCED BY THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST EXPOSING THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY, MANUAL AND AUTOMATED PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS SUPPORT THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED STT WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. 15P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO ITS POSITION BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. 15P HAS INTENSIFIED TO 45 KTS AS SHOWN IN A 161957Z ASCAT IMAGE, BUT WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE ONCE IT STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 20 FEET.// NNNN
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ABPW10 PGTW 180600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZFEB2024// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 15P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 29.3S 152.5W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE NNNN
最后于 2024-02-18 15:30:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
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