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ABIO10 PGTW 171800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/171800Z- 181800ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZFEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 17FEB24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 68.9E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 170900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.9S 51.8E, APPROXIMATELY 356 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171501Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS FRAGMENTED BANDING FORMING ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER NESTLING OVER A PATCH OF INVIGORATING 32C SST, 95S WILL QUICKLY TURN EASTWARD THEN PERFORM A POSSIBLE MOONWALK AND TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN
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WTXS21 PGTW 180300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.8S 51.5E TO 14.2S 56.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 51.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 51.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. INVEST 95S WILL NOT STOP UNTIL IT GETS ENOUGH, SHOWING GREAT STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT AS IT HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 180019Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION CONCENTRATED OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE PERCEIVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FRAGMENTED BANDING MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5- 10KT) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S AND TRACKING IT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, BUT HAVE DIFFERENCES WHEN IT COMES TO SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS IT FLATTENS OUT ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONSENSUS ON INVEST 95S TRACKING OVER A PATCH OF 32C WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WHICH WILL FUEL RAPID AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MAKING A SOUTHWARD TURN TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190300Z. // NNNN
ABIO10 PGTW 180330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/180330Z-181800ZFEB2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZFEB2024// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180251ZFEB2024// NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 17FEB24 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 72.3E, APPROXIMATELY 576 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 172100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 51.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 51.7E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. INVEST 95S WILL NOT STOP UNTIL IT GETS ENOUGH, SHOWING GREAT STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT AS IT HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 180019Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION CONCENTRATED OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE PERCEIVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FRAGMENTED BANDING MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30 C) SST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 95S AND TRACKING IT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, BUT HAVE DIFFERENCES WHEN IT COMES TO SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS IT FLATTENS OUT ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONSENSUS ON INVEST 95S TRACKING OVER A PATCH OF 32C WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WHICH WILL FUEL RAPID AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MAKING A SOUTHWARD TURN TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-18 12:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 181307 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/7/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2024/02/18 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 52.8 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/19 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 75 24H: 2024/02/19 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 55 36H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30 72H: 2024/02/21 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 185 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0 120H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 230 NW: 205 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=1.5 THE LOW-LEVEL PRECURSOR LOCATED OFF THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IS BEING MONITORED BY THE RSMC LA REUNION. ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER NAO07-20232024 HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF POSITION SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE SURFACE WIND STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS, IF WE COMPARE THE LAST SCATTEROMETER PASSES HY-2B AT 0230 UTC AND HY-2C AT 2230 UTC. DESPITE EVERYTHING, THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS STRETCHED, WITH AVERAGE WINDS OF AROUND 20KT LOCALIZED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. DIFFUSIOMETRIC PASSES SSMIS-F17 AT 0236Z AND AMSR2 AT 1031Z ALSO SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CORE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL, DEMONSTRATING A GAIN IN ORGANIZATION. MOREOVER, THE ANIMATION OF THE LATEST INFRA-RED IMAGES SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER HAS SLIPPED BENEATH THE MAIN CONVECTION, WHICH HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE, WITH CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE COOLED TO AROUND -80AOC/-85AOC. GIVEN THESE LATEST QUALITATIVE DATA AND THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL POTENTIAL, WE CAN REASONABLY ASSUME THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOW REACHED THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FOR 25 KT. THIS TROPICAL LOW IS SET TO TRACK INITIALLY NORTHEASTWARDS AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, DRIVEN BY HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CENTERS ON THE NEAR EQUATORIAL BELT. FOLLOWING ITS INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SLOW ITS COURSE EASTWARDS AND BE SLOWED BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE METEOR TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS FROM WEDNESDAY. ITS FINAL TRACK, WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS), WILL BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SWELLING OR DEFLATION OF THIS EASTERN RIDGE BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. ON THIS POINT, THE MAIN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINIST GUIDELINES DIFFER ON THE SCENARIO TO BE FOLLOWED, RESULTING IN A VERY WIDE DISPERSION OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEMBERS BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT RSMC TRACK FORECAST THEREFORE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, AND WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE SYSTEM NAO07-20232024 IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: STRONG OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC UPPER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF THE ORDER OF 5-10KT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE MARKED BY AN EVACUATION CHANNEL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF-CIRCLE. THE ONLY PROBLEM AT THE MOMENT IS THE TEMPORARY LACK OF CONVERGENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW WITHIN THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A CLOSED CIRCULATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO SET IN VERY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MECHANICALLY REINFORCING LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND, ULTIMATELY, THE CYCLOGENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION PROCESS UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. BEYOND THIS, A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY A DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: TROMELIN ISLAND: - TOTAL SEA INCREASING BETWEEN 3 AND 4 METRES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, EASING ON TUESDAY. - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS, CONCENTRATED AROUND THE COMPACT SYSTEM. - STRONG GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EVENING THROUGH TO MONDAY MORNING. RAPIDLY IMPROVING WITH DISTANCE FROM THE SYSTEM. SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND: - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. - TOTAL SEA INCREASING BETWEEN 3 AND 4 METRES ON TUESDAY, INCREASING BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METRES ON WEDNESDAY. - POSSIBLE STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS FROM TUESDAY, BECOMING DESTRUCTIVE WITH STORM FORCE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.=
最后于 2024-02-18 22:05:02 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 181955 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/7/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2024/02/18 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 53.6 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): NIL 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/19 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/19 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 85 36H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45 48H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30 60H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30 72H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 30 120H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=1.5+ SINCE 12UTC, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 07-20232024 HAS AT FIRST WEAKENED SLIGHTLY, THEN REINTENSIFIED IN THE LOW'S NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, FORMING A SHORT CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CURVATURE IS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IN THE LATEST IMAGES. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND ESTIMATED TO BE BELOW THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND, NOW LOCATED NORTHWEST OF TROMELIN. MICROWAVE IMAGES SEEM TO SHOW THE BEGINNING OF A CURVED BAND WITH A SMALL CONVECTIVE CORE. DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 1.5+ IS PERHAPS A LITTLE LOW AND WILL PROBABLY BE REVISED TO 2.0 AFTERHAND TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT RECENT STRUCTURE'S IMPROVEMENT AROUND 18UTC. INTENSITY IS STILL ESTIMATED AT 25KT, BUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE. THIS TROPICAL LOW IS SET TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DRIVEN BY NEAR-EQUATORIAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SLOW ITS COURSE EASTWARDS, DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS EAST, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS FROM WEDNESDAY. ITS FINAL TRACK, WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT NEAR THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS), WILL BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SWELLING OR DEFLATION OF THIS RIDGE BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, AND ALSO TO INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ON THIS POINT, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINIST NUMERICAL OUTPUT DIFFER ON THE SCENARIO, RESULTING IN A VERY IMPORTANT DISPERSION BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT RSMC TRACK FORECAST THEREFORE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, AND WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. SYSTEM 07-20232024 IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS : STRONG OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID-LEVELS, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF THE ORDER OF 5-10KT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE MARKED BY AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MOREOVER, CONVERGENCE FROM THE MONSOON FLOW SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND THE CYCLOGENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION PROCESS UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY ONWARDS, MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY A DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: TROMELIN ISLAND: - WAVES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 METRES OVERNIGHT, EASING ON TUESDAY. - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS, CONCENTRATED AROUND THE COMPACT SYSTEM. - GALE-FORCE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAPIDLY IMPROVING WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND: - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. - WAVES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 METERS ON TUESDAY, THEN BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METERS ON WEDNESDAY. - POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM TUESDAY, THEN STORM FORCE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 190114 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/7/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2024/02/19 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 54.4 E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/19 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 85 24H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 36H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 48H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 60H: 2024/02/21 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 72H: 2024/02/22 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55 120H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 120 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, INTENSE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE, ORGANIZING INTO A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS ABOUT 0.4. THIS IS ALSO VISIBLE ON MICROWAVE IMAGES AMSR2 2122Z AND SSMIS-F18 0005Z. THE CENTER'S LOCATION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE CURVED BAND, BUT REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE OBSERVED TRACK HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTED MORE NORTHWARD THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A DT OF 2.5-, ENABLING US TO ESTIMATE THAT SYSTEM 07 HAS REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE, DESPITE UNCERTAINTY OVER ACTUAL INTENSITY IN THE ABSENCE OF OBJECTIVE DATA NEAR THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DRIVEN BY NEAR-EQUATORIAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SLOW ITS COURSE ON TUESDAY DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS EAST AND EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS FROM WEDNESDAY. ITS FINAL TRACK, WHICH SHOULD HEAD NEAR THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS), WILL BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, AND ALSO TO INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST. ON THIS POINT, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINIST NUMERICAL OUTPUT ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED, RESULTING IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT RSMC TRACK FORECAST THEREFORE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, AND WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. SYSTEM 07-20232024 IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM OVERALL CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS : STRONG OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID-LEVELS, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE, WHICH SHOULD ENABLE IT TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STAGE THIS MONDAY. AROUND TUESDAY EVENING, WHILE THE SYSTEM STARTS ITS SOUTHWARD TURN, SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR COULD STOP INTENSIFICATION FOR A SHORT WHILE, BEFORE RESUMING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES SOUTHWARDS AGAIN IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE WIND SHEAR. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEANIC POTENTIAL NEAR THE MASCARENE ISLANDS. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS : TROMELIN ISLAND: - WAVES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 METRES ON MONDAY, EASING ON TUESDAY. - POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 100 MM IN 24 HOURS. SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND: - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. - WAVES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 METERS ON TUESDAY, TEMPORARY 5 TO 6 METERS ON WEDNESDAY. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM TUESDAY 12UTC TO WEDNESDAY 21UTC. POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. MAURITIUS : - WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARDS.=
最后于 2024-02-19 10:15:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS32 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180251FEB2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 54.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 54.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.3S 56.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 14.2S 58.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.6S 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.6S 60.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.9S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.1S 58.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 21.4S 57.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 55.1E. 19FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 348 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 180300). // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.9S 54.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 348 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (SIXTEEN) CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE, THOUGH IT LIKELY REMAINS MORE DISORGANIZED IN THE LOW-LEVELS THAN IT APPEARS IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE LATEST ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)-LIKE FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE MOST RECENT FRAMES OF EIR SUGGEST CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ALREADY AND CIRRUS DEBRIS IS SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER HOT TOWER IS FLARING UP JUST WEST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITION. AN 182120Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A DISORGANIZED CORE, THOUGH THERE WERE SOME HINTS OF WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NO DEFINED LLCC COULD BE DISCERNED FROM THE AMSR2 IMAGERY AND THUS THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, PLACED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS, IN LINE WITH THE PGTW AND KNES FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE T2.5 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND DEMS, AND STEADILY IMPROVING STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG NER ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC, LOW VWS, AND GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE SMALL AND THE VORTEX IS LIKELY STILL SOMEWHAT TILTED, WHICH MAKES IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STRONG NER TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE NER BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, GENERATING A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING GRADIENT. BY TAU 36, A MIGRATORY RIDGE PASSING FAR TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH AN EASTERN LOBE OF THE NER CENTERED NEAR 10S 75E, GENERATING A SOLID WALL OF RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST AXIS FROM 10S TO 30S. TC 16S WILL NOT HAVE THE JUICE TO PUSH INTO THIS DEEP RIDGING AND INSTEAD WILL TAKE THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE, AND TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48. TC 16S THEN TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96, GENERALLY TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF A COMPLEX RIDGE PATTERN THAT DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH WILL ERODE THE STEERING RIDGE AND WEAKEN THE GRADIENT, LEADING TO A SLOW-DOWN IN TRACK SPEED AND A TURN MORE WESTWARD BY TAU 120. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO INTENSIFY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE THE VORTEX. ONCE THE VORTEX IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A MORE RAPID PACE OF INTENSIFICATION AS IT PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH OHC VALUES, AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW INCREASES. A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72 BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE. REDUCED OUTFLOW ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEGIN TO TAKE THEIR TOLL AFTER TAU 72, AND TC 16S WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL TRACK SOLUTIONS, PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 36 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN SOUTHWARD. ACROSS THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, THE TRIO OF THE UKMET BASED MODELS INCLUDING UKMET ENSEMBLE, EGRR AND THE GALWEM ALL DISPLAY THE SAME GENERAL TRACK TYPE AS THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT TRACK THE SYSTEM EAST OF PORT MATHURIN. THIS SERVES TO PULL THE CONSENSUS MEAN SIGNIFICANTLY TOO FAR TO THE EAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE LIES IN A MORE TIGHTLY-PACKED ENVELOPE THAT GRADUALLY EXPANDS FROM 100NM AT TAU 48 TO 320NM BY TAU 120, WITH ALL THE MEMBERS CONFINED TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN. A MANUAL RUN OF A NEW CONSENSUS WHICH DISCARDS THE OUTLIERS ABOVE GENERATES A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO, WITH THE TRACK PASSING JUST EAST OF MAURITIUS. THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY TRACKS THIS MANUAL CONSENSUS MEAN AND THE ECMWF TRACKER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER, PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO VERY LARGE MODEL SPREAD. BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF SPREAD, LENDING EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED AS WELL, WITH THE GLOBAL-MODEL-BASED SHIPS GUIDANCE, THE COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) AND THE HWRF MODELS SHOWING FAR MORE EXCITEMENT THAN THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS HAFS-A AND THE GFS-BASED COAMPS-TC. THE LATTER MODELS ONLY SHOW MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK BETWEEN 50-65 KNOTS, WHILE THE FIRST MODELS SHOW A PEAK CLOSER TO 95 KNOTS. ALL AGREE THAT THE PEAK WILL BE AT TAU 72, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS ABOUT 5 KNOTS LOWER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS WHICH ARE TRIGGERING WITH THIS MODEL RUN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-19 10:40:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 190701 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2024/02/19 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 54.5 E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 55 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/19 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 75 24H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 48H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 60H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 72H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55 120H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN INITIALLY DETERIORATED TOWARDS THE END OF THE NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING AGAIN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE SSMIS F16 AND F17 MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 0205 AND 0255Z SHOW NO EYE ORGANIZATION ON 37GHZ, WHILE AN EYE IS VISIBLE ON THE GPM FROM 0430Z. THE 0530Z ASCAT SHOWS A STILL ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH MAX WINDS CLOSE TO 30KT. THE 30KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT 06UTC. THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE ON AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH NEAR-EQUATORIAL GEOPOTENTIALS. ON TUESDAY, IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS ON TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS ON WEDNESDAY, PASSING TO THE WEST OF SAINT-BRANDON ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ITS FINAL TRACK, WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT CLOSE TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS), WILL BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, AS WELL AS ITS INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH-WEST. ON THIS POINT, THE SET AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDELINES ARE VERY DISPERSED OVER THE SCENARIO, RESULTING IN A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT RMSC TRACK FORECAST THEREFORE REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. SYSTEM 07-20232024 IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, LOW UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH SHOULD ENABLE IT TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ON TUESDAY EVENING, A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD TEMPORARILY CAP INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM TURNS. IT SHOULD THEN RESUME INTENSIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY, ACCELERATING SOUTHWARDS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR. THEN, FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, A NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT COULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN, ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL NEAR THE SISTER ISLANDS. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: TROMELIN ISLAND: - HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE UP TO 100 MM IN 24 HOURS TODAY. - WAVES CLOSE TO 3 ON MONDAY, DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY. ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON : - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM WITHIN 72 HOURS. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 METRES FROM TUESDAY, TEMPORARILY 5 TO 6 METRES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. MAURITIUS: - WAVES EXCEEDING 4M FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY. - GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.=
最后于 2024-02-19 15:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 191254 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20232024 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 2.A POSITION 2024/02/19 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 56.3 E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 14.0 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65 24H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/21 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30 60H: 2024/02/22 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30 72H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 150 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 120H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 205 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 55 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=2.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BARELY INTENSIFIED. INDEED, ON THE GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 0933, THE ORGANIZATION OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER IS NOT CLEARLY VISIBLE. FURTHERMORE, THE ASCAT PASSES OF 0530 AND 0615 DO NOT SHOW A CLEAR-CUT CLOSED CIRCULATION. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATE MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AT A T OF 2.5. IN THESE CONDITIONS, RSMC ESTIMATES THAT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE HAS NOT BEEN REACHED THIS EVENING AT 12UTC. SYSTEM N 07-20232024 IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH WINDS OF 30KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH NEAR-EQUATORIAL GEOPOTENTIALS. THEN TOMORROW, TUESDAY, IT SHOULD SLOW ITS COURSE, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO TURN SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST ON WEDNESDAY, PASSING CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ITS FINAL TRACK, WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT CLOSE TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS), WILL BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, AS WELL AS ITS INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH-WEST. ON THIS POINT, THE ENSEMBLISTIC AND DETERMINIST GUIDELINES ARE VERY DISPERSED OVER THE SCENARIO, WHICH TRANSLATES INTO A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS. BASED ON THE ASSEMBLY MODELS AND CLOSER TO THE GFS MODEL, THE RSMC TRACK HAS BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, TAKING IT FURTHER OVER THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS AND CONTINUING ON A WESTERLY TURN FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK IS SIGNIFICANT FROM D+3 ONWARDS, IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ABOUT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OF TRACK FURTHER EAST (SPARING REUNION) OR FURTHER WEST (IMPACTING THE TWO ISLANDS MORE). THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE 07-20232024 SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: A STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH SHOULD ENABLE IT TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ON WEDNESDAY, ACCELERATING SOUTHWARDS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR. THEN, FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, A NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT COULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN, ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL NEAR THE SISTER ISLANDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM IS COMPACT AND SMALL. STRONG VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT SPACE OF TIME, BUT THESE VARIATIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT PRECISELY. THERE IS THEREFORE ALSO A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON: - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 METRES FROM TUESDAY, TEMPORARILY 5 TO 6 METRES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5M FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY DAY.=
最后于 2024-02-19 21:10:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS32 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 56.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 56.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 14.1S 58.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.3S 59.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.2S 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 16.4S 59.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.4S 58.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 21.8S 57.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.4S 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 56.6E. 19FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.2S 56.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 361 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (SIXTEEN) HAVING RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER PAST 12 HOURS. A 190935Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALED SIGNIFICANT SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC TO WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET SLIGHTLY (20NM) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXHIBITING LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND VERY WARM (30 - 31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR2 MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 190900Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, BUT CERTAINLY INTENSIFICATION OVER THIS INTERVAL. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK BY THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST, FURTHER INTENSIFYING ALONG TRACK. WITH VWS ELEVATING TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) BY TAU 36, INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOW THEREAFTER BUT CONTINUE GRADUALLY UP TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 75 KTS AROUND TAU 60. AFTER TAU 60, DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE, PUTTING RESTRAINT TO ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND, LASTING THROUGH TAU 120. NEAR TAU 96, WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF A STR EAST OF THE LLCC IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN THE SYSTEM TO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 16S WILL GENERALLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AND TURN TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK BY TAU 36 FOLLOWING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RISE IN INTENSITY OCCUR FROM TAU 00 TO NEAR TAU 60, WHERE A LARGE 40 KTS SPREAD IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS PRESENT. TANGENTIALLY, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS AT TAU 60 IS A VERY WIDE 334NM, GROWING LARGER THEREAFTER AND CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-20 04:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：