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WTIO30 FMEE 191936 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/7/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/19 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 56.6 E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 55 24H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 30 60H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35 72H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 175 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85 120H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: A TECHNICAL INCIDENT HAS LED TO AN UNTIMELY SHIFT IN THE NUMBER OF THE RSMC BULLETIN IN RELATION TO THE MARINE ADVISORY. RSMC LA REUNION APOLOGIZES FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. T=CI=2.5+ OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY, THANKS TO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE, WITH A CLOUD PATTERN THAT HAS IMPROVED, WITH CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE COOLED, WIDENED AND BECOME MORE CURVED IN THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGES. A CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CORE IS ALSO UNDERWAY, AS SHOWN BY THE SUCCESSION OF 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIALLY RATHER LOOSE AND ILL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CORE OF SSMIS-F17 AT 0240Z AND AMSR2 AT 0935Z HAS GIVEN WAY TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE IN SSMIS-F18 AT 1239Z (AND SSMIS-F17 AT 1459Z), SHOWING AN ALMOST CIRCULAR BLUE EYE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES SUGGEST 35KT IN THE CIRCULATION. OBJECTIVE AMERICAN INTENSITY DATA ALSO LEND CREDIBILITY TO THIS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THESE ELEMENTS, THE SYSTEM WAS NAMED ELEANOR AT 18UTC BY THE MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. ELEANOR SHOULD CONTINUE ON AN EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DRIVEN BY HIGH NEAR-EQUATORIAL GEOPOTENTIALS. THEN TOMORROW, TUESDAY, IT SHOULD SLOW ITS COURSE, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO TURN SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST ON WEDNESDAY, PASSING CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ITS FINAL TRACK, WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT CLOSE TO THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS), WILL BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, AS WELL AS ITS INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH-WEST. ON THIS POINT, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINIST GUIDELINES ARE STILL WIDELY DISPERSED ON THE SCENARIO TO BE FOLLOWED, RESULTING IN A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, INCLUDING GFS AND IFS, THE RSMC TRACK HAS BEEN UPDATED, TAKING IT FURTHER EAST OF THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS ON THURSDAY COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRAJECTORY REMAINS HIGH FROM D+3 ONWARDS, IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ABOUT A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE TRAJECTORY FURTHER EAST (SPARING REUNION) OR FURTHER WEST (IMPACTING THE TWO ISLANDS TO A GREATER EXTENT). THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS. ELEANOR IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A MONSOON FLOW BECOMING MORE CONVERGENT, LOW SHEAR (FROM THE EAST FOR 10KT) AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, THIS SHOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING STEADILY UNTIL THURSDAY ON ITS WAY TO THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO, BUT FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, A WESTERLY CONSTRAINT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE COULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN, ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM IS COMPACT AND SMALL. STRONG VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE THROUGH INTERNAL MECHANISMS, IN A SHORT SPACE OF TIME, AND THEREFORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE SUBJECT TO A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND WILL BE REFINED ACCORDINGLY. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND: - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. - ROUGH SEAS SWELLING UNTIL TUESDAY, WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 5 METRES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM EVACUATES. MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5M FROM THURSDAY MORNING; GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY EVENING THEN FRIDAY WITH THE EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 200032 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/7/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/20 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 57.8 E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 55 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/21 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 35 48H: 2024/02/22 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 60H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30 72H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75 120H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: A TECHNICAL INCIDENT HAS LED TO AN UNTIMELY SHIFT IN THE NUMBER OF THE RSMC BULLETIN IN RELATION TO THE MARINE ADVISORY. RSMC LA REUNION APOLOGIZES FOR THE INCONVENIENCE. T=CI=3.0 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED, WITH THE CENTER OF ROTATION BECOMING A LITTLE MORE OBVIOUS, DESPITE THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGES OR SCATTEROMETER DATA TO COMPLETELY REMOVE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LAYER CLOUD CENTER AT 00UTC. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES PRIOR TO THE NETWORK GAVE A DT OF 3.0, IN LINE WITH THE PT. THIS ESTIMATE REMAINS CLOSE TO AMERICAN ESTIMATES (KNES AND PGTW) AS WELL AS TO OBJECTIVE CIMSS DATA INCLUDING DPRINT AND AIDT. THE NEXT SSMIS AND GPMI DIFFUSIOMETRIC DATA, SCHEDULED IN A FEW HOURS' TIME, WILL ENABLE US TO ASSESS THE QUALITY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CORE'S CONSOLIDATION. ELEANOR SHOULD CONTINUE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DRIVEN BY HIGH NEAR-EQUATORIAL GEOPOTENTIALS. THEN TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS, WITH A DIRECT PASSAGE AROUND SAINT-BRANDON ON WEDNESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS) ON THURSDAY. THIS FORECAST WILL BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SWELLING/SINKING OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH-WEST. IT'S ON THIS PRECISE POINT THAT CURRENT GUIDANCE REMAINS SCATTERED AS TO WHICH SCENARIO TO FOLLOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE WIDE DISPERSION OF THE MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS (EPS AND GEFS), AS WELL AS THE DETERMINIST MODELS, EVEN IF IFS AND GFS SEEM TO AGREE ON A PASSAGE FURTHER EAST OF MAURITIUS. HOWEVER, AS THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRAJECTORY REMAINS HIGH FROM D+3, WE WILL HAVE TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ABOUT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OF TRACK FURTHER EAST ( AVOIDING REUNION ISLAND) OR FURTHER WEST (IMPACTING MORE ON THE SISTER ISLANDS). THE TRACK FORECAST WILL BE REFINED REGULARLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELEANOR IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVERALL: STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A MONSOON FLOW BECOMING MORE CONVERGENT, LOW SHEAR (FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR 9KT) AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH SHOULD ENABLE IT TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING STEADILY UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A 24-HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DURING WHICH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STRESS COULD STABILIZE THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MAKES ITS FINAL APPROACH TOWARDS THE MASCARENES. FROM THURSDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY, ELEANOR SHOULD UNDERGO A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING PHASE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR BEGINNING TO INTRODUCE DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS AGGRAVATING FACTOR CONTINUES ON SATURDAY, WITH A 200 MB SHEAR THAT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE PRONOUNCED, BRINGING A DOSE OF ADDITIONAL DRY AIR OVER THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. THE DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WITH COOLER WATERS SOUTH OF THE 20TH PARALLEL, SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUT THE WIND OUT OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL SEE ITS MAIN CONVECTION WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS COMPACT AND SMALL. STRONG VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS, IN A SHORT SPACE OF TIME, AND ARE THEREFORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE SUBJECT TO A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND WILL BE REFINED ACCORDINGLY IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND: - GALE FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150 MM OVER THE NEXT 48/72 HOURS. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 METRES BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM EVACUATES. MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY. - WAVES OF 4 TO 8 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 57.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 57.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.4S 59.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.3S 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 16.8S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 18.6S 58.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.9S 57.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.1S 56.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 22.4S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 58.0E. 20FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.0S 57.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 366 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING MEDIUM-SIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP RAIN BANDS FEEDING IN MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, CREATING A BANDING EYE-FEATURE NEAR THE INTERSECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY, BASED ON THE NEAR-CONCENTRIC DVORAK FIX ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND THE AVERAGE OF AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES, IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND REFLECTS THE 12-HR CONVECTIVE AND WRAP IMPROVEMENTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST, LOW VWS, AND MODERATE DUAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENSION TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 200000Z CIMSS AIDT: 49 KTS AT 200100Z CIMSS DPRINT: 42 KTS AT 200100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC ELEANOR WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD UNDER THE NER. AFTER TAU 12, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 72, A SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTH WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH A BIFURCATION SCENARIO. THE MAIN PACK PROJECTS A TIGHTER TURN SOUTHWARD IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONG STR. THE ALTERNATE STRAND THAT INCLUDES AFUM, UEMN, AND UKMET CALLS FOR A WIDER TURN UP TO 245NM AT TAU 72 EAST OF THE MAIN PACK. AFTER TAU 72, BOTH SOLUTIONS DRIVE THE VORTICES WESTWARD WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG AND ACROSS TRACKS. IN VIEW OF THESE THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST THAT IS LAID IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MAIN PACK UP TO TAU 72, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“埃莉诺”向东偏南方向移动
时 间：20日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“埃莉诺”，ELEANOR
中心位置：南纬14.0度、东经57.8度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：997百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏北方向约680公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“埃莉诺”由7级加强到8级
预报结论：“埃莉诺”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向东偏南转南偏西方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月20日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 200746 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/20 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 59.0 E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST 13 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 75 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65 24H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 48H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30 60H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 185 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30 72H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 205 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 0 120H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN NEAR THE ELEANOR CENTER HAS REMAINED FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED, WITH CONVECTION BURSTS SHOWING LITTLE CURVATURE. 0350Z GMI AND LATE-NIGHT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES DO NOT SHOW AN INDISPUTABLE POSITION FOR THE SURFACE CENTER. THE LOCATION UNCERTAINTY AT 06Z REMAINS SIGNIFICANT. IN THE LATEST IMAGES, A NEW, MORE PRONOUNCED CURVED BAND SEEMS TO BE FORMING CLOSE TO THE CENTER. IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE DATA AT THE TIME, THE INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AT 40KT. HOWEVER, EARLY DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASSES SUGGEST THAT THIS ANALYSIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERESTIMATED. ELEANOR SHOULD CONTINUE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DRIVEN BY HIGH NEAR-EQUATORIAL GEOPOTENTIALS. THEN THIS EVENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, WITH A CLOSE PASSAGE TO THE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON ON WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS) ON THURSDAY. THIS FORECAST WILL BE CLOSELY RELATED TO THE SWELLING/COLLAPSING OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. IT'S ON THIS PRECISE POINT THAT CURRENT GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT ON THE SCENARIO TO BE FOLLOWED. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEMBERS (EPS AND GEFS), AS WELL AS DETERMINIST MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE STASTICAL MODEL CONW, IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE AROME FORECAST. AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR SHOULD BE PICKED UP AGAIN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTERLY TRACK. OVERALL, ELEANOR IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE OR LESS QUICK DEEPENING DEPENDING ON THE SCENARIO. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT AT THE LATEST. FROM WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY, PROBABLY LEADING TO A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF DRY INTRUSIONS. BY LATE WEEK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN A RESIDUAL LOW TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND: - GALE FORCE WINDS VERY LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48HOURS. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 METRES BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SWIFT IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM EVACUATES. MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY, BUT RISK WEAKENING - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY, BUT RATHER UNCERTAIN - WAVES OF 4 TO 8 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM.=
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“埃莉诺”将逐渐增强
时 间：20日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“埃莉诺”，ELEANOR
中心位置：南纬13.7度、东经59.0度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：997百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港北偏东方向约730公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“埃莉诺”由7级加强到8级
预报结论：“埃莉诺”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向东南转偏南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月20日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 201330 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/7/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/20 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 59.6 E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 24H: 2024/02/21 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35 36H: 2024/02/22 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30 48H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30 60H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65 72H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0 120H: 2024/02/25 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND THAT DEVELOPED SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z HAS LOST DEFINITION, GIVING WAY TO A CENTER COVERED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS. A HOT SPOT HAS TEMPORARILY FORMED, BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO CORRESPOND TO A REAL EARLY EYE. THE FULL DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASSES SUGGEST AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO 35KT AT 06Z. CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40KT IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATCON AND AIDT. ELEANOR SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT HOURS, DRIVEN BY HIGH NEAR-EQUATORIAL GEOPOTENTIALS. THEN THIS EVENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST, WITH A CLOSE PASSAGE TO THE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON ON WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSIT NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ON THURSDAY. FORECAST SPREAD SEEM TO BE STARTING TO DECREASE, PROBABLY THANKS TO BETTER INITIAL ANALYSES. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS, IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE AROME AND CONW (STATISTIC) FORECAST. AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR SHOULD BE PICKED UP AGAIN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTERLY TRACK. OVERALL, ELEANOR IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE OR LESS QUICK DEEPENING DEPENDING ON THE SCENARIO. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY THURSDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY, PROBABLY LEADING TO A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF DRY INTRUSIONS. BY LATE WEEK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN A RESIDUAL LOW TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND: - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FROM TONIGHT. STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. - WAVES OF 4 M BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SWIFT IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM EVACUATES. MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW RISK OF STORM-FORCE WINDS DURING THURSDAY, BUT RISK WEAKENING - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY, BUT RATHER UNCERTAIN - WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM. REUNION : - WAVES OF 4 METRES BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY.=
最后于 2024-02-20 21:35:01 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS32 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 13.8S 59.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 59.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 14.9S 60.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 16.4S 60.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 18.1S 59.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.6S 59.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 21.3S 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.1S 57.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.4S 54.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 59.8E. 20FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z AND 211500Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.8S 59.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 471 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER, DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND IS CONTINUING TO HINDER OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT IS ALSO OBSERVABLE IN THE 201227Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH A DRY SLOT EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW PERSISTS WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 201227Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 57 KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 201200Z CIMSS AIDT: 50 KTS AT 201200Z CIMSS DPRINT: 45 KTS AT 201300Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL OTHER FACTORS: DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 96, TC 16S WILL BEGIN SLOWING DOWN DURING ITS EXPECTED SHARP TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH, FORCING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF LA REUNION NEAR TAU 120. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE CORE MOISTENS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DECREASES, WITH A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 48 FUELED BY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28C-30C). AFTER TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN WITH INCREASING VWS (25-30 KNOTS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF AIDS. THE CLUSTER COMPOSED OF AFUM, UEMN AND EGRR ARE POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING ECMWF, EEMN AND GFS TAKE A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A SHARP WESTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED WEST OF THE CONSENSUS ALIGNED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE BETTER GUIDANCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN最后于 2024-02-21 18:00:09 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：