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WTIO30 FMEE 201819 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/20 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 60.2 E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35 24H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 30 48H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35 60H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 100 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 0 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND ELEANOR HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH THE NIGHT-TIME EVOLUTION AND THE DECREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE CENTER GRADUALLY REPOSITIONED ITSELF BELOW THE CONVECTION. MICROWAVE SSMIS IMAGES FROM 1229 AND 1448 SHOW A MORE COMPACT STRUCTURE AROUND THE EYE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ACAT DATA, AND IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DATA AVAILABLE, ELEANOR IS MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 40KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. ELEANOR SHOULD SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, HELD BACK BY THE SWELLING OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO TURN SOUTH OVERNIGHT, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM EAST OF SAINT-BRANDON ON WEDNESDAY, SOME 100 KM TO THE EAST, THEN EAST OF THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS ON FRIDAY. EVEN IF SOME ISOLATED MODELS PERSIST IN SHOWING A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS, THE DISPERSION IS LESS IMPORTANT NOW. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, MOVING CLOSER TO IFS AND AROME. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, RESULTING IN A WESTERLY TRACK WELL SOUTH OF REUNION. THE DISPERSION IS ONCE AGAIN GREATER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD, LEAVING UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FINAL TRACK. OVERALL, ELEANOR IS BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE OR LESS QUICK DEEPENING DEPENDING ON THE SCENARIO. A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY THURSDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY, PROBABLY LEADING TO A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING ON FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF DRY INTRUSIONS. BY LATE WEEK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN A RESIDUAL LOW TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: SAINT-BRANDON : - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW RISK OF STORM-FORCE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT RISK DECREASING - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. - 4M WAVES UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAURITIUS: - POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY, BUT RISK DECREASING. - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY. - WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM EVACUATES. REUNION: - WAVES OF 4 METERS BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY=
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WTIO30 FMEE 210029 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/7/20232024 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/21 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 60.7 E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 85 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 45 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/21 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2024/02/22 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 195 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 60H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 55 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR'S CLOUD CONFGURATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE. ELEANOR STILL APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR (CIMSS ANALYSIS AT 18KT TO 18UTC), LEAVING THE CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEARED CONFIGURATION MAINTAINS A T OF 3.0+. MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM GCOM AT 2109Z AND SSMIS AT 2335Z SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE, AND THAT CONVECTION IS REJECTED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AS WELL AS IN A BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE (BUT AWAY FROM THE CENTER). IN LINE WITH AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA, ELEANOR IS MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 40KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. ELEANOR HAS BEGUN TO TURN SOUTHWARDS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BUILDS UP, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM EAST OF SAINT-BRANDON TODAY, A HUNDRED KM EAST, THEN EAST OF MAURITIUS ON FRIDAY. THE DISPERSION OF MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS DECREASING, GIVING FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR A TRACK EAST OF MAURITIUS. THE RSMC TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, MOVING CLOSER TO IFS AND AROME (GFS PROPOSES A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS AND IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCES BEAM, WHICH DOES NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS). AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, FOLLOWING ITS WEAKENING, ELEANOR SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTERLY TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION. THE DISPERSION IS ONCE AGAIN GREATER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD, LEAVING UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FINAL TRACK. ELEANOR IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE A COMPACT CORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PROVIDING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). ELEANOR SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUIDANCES, NOTABLY AROME, SUGGEST LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN PREVIOUSLY. THERE IS THEREFORE GREATER UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ELEANOR WILL REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST NEVERTHELESS SUGGESTS A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE IT BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CLOSE ON THURSDAY AND MORE CLEARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR, TOGETHER WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR OVER THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO COLLAPSE SHARPLY ON FRIDAY. IT IS THEREFORE A RESIDUAL SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON : - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. - 4M WAVES UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY. - WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM. REUNION : - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHLANDS ON FRIDAY. - 4-METRE WAVES BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 60.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 60.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 16.3S 60.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 18.0S 60.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 19.6S 60.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 21.0S 59.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.6S 59.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 22.7S 57.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 60.6E. 21FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210000Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.8S 60.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 370 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOWER-LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC) AND FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM. CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST SHOW DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE FAVORABLE BETWEEN 28-29C. SHEAR IS MARGINAL BETWEEN 15-20KTS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND A 202335Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING A LOWER-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE AT 14.8S 60.6E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, AND THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 202100Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S (ELEANOR) IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH TAU 12 ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST BEFORE CURVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (TAU 96), THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO CURVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND IS DRIVEN BY THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS. THE STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, STEADILY RISING AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS A REGION OF MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN TAU 18-36 (10-15KTS). AFTER TAU 36, JTWC SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CIMSS TC GUIDANCE SHOWS ELEVATED WIND SHEAR ABOVE 25KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, CAPPING INTENSITY AT 65KTS AT TAU 48 AND DECLINING TO DISSIPATION (35KTS) BY TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) WILL TRANSIT GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72, BUT AT VARYING SPEEDS. MOST MEMBERS OF THE JTWC CONSENSUS BEGIN TO TURN TO THE WEST BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96, WITH THE STARK EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE CROSS-TRACK ERROR AT TAU 24 IS 100 NM BUT OPENS TO 150 BY TAU 96 (EXCLUDING NAVGEM). THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, SHOWING A PEAK OF HAFS-A OF 62KTS AT TAU 36 AND A LOWER INTENSITY OF 50KTS AT THE SAME TIME FROM COAMPS-TC. HOWEVER, RAW MODEL HWRF DATA SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY PEAKING AT 85 KTS BY TAU 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“埃莉诺”向南偏东方向移动
时 间：21日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“埃莉诺”，ELEANOR
中心位置：南纬14.5度、东经60.7度
强度等级：热带风暴
最大风力：8级（20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）
中心气压：997百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港北偏东方向约710公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“埃莉诺”强度维持不变
预报结论：“埃莉诺”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度逐渐加强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月21日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 210646 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/21 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 60.4 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 35 24H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 35 36H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 285 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 35 60H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95 72H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0+ LEANOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ELEANOR SEEMS TO STILL BE SUBJECT TO EAST-NORTHEAST WIND SHEAR (ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 17KT AT 00UTC). THE GPM MICROWAVE PICTURE FROM 0308Z ALLOWED US TO LOCATE THE CENTER AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEARED-WIND CONFIGURATION MAINTAINS A T OF 3.0+. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ESTIMATE A MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY OF AROUND 35KT. HOWEVER, OTHER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ESTIMATE MUCH HIGHER WINDS: 58KT IN 10-MINUTE WINDS (66KT IN 1-MINUTE WINDS) FOR THE SAR (SENTINEL-1A) AT 0137Z, 51KT FOR THE SMAP AT 0148Z AND 49KT FOR THE SMOS AT 0217Z. FINALLY, THE ASCAT SWATH AT 0437Z MEASURES A WIND OF 43KT, WHICH IS ACTUALLY 49KT IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SATURATION OF THIS MEASUREMENT. THE MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY CHOSEN BY CMRS DE LA REUNION IS THEREFORE 50KT, CLASSIFYING ELEANOR AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MEASUREMENTS, THIS INTENSITY WAS REACHED EARLIER LAST NIGHT, SINCE 00Z. ELEANOR HAS BEGUN ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK UNDER THE EFFECT OF A HIGH-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM EAST OF SAINT-BRANDON IN MID-DAY, A 70 KM EAST, THEN EAST OF MAURITIUS ON THURSDAY. THE DISPERSION OF MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS DECREASING, GIVING FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR A TRACK EAST OF MAURITIUS. THE CMRS TRACK, REVISED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, MOVING CLOSER TO IFS AND AROME (GFS PROPOSES A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS AND IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCES BEAM, WHICH DOES NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS). AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, FOLLOWING ITS WEAKENING, ELEANOR SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTERLY TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION. THE DISPERSION IS ONCE AGAIN GREATER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD, LEAVING UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FINAL TRACK. ELEANOR IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE A COMPACT CORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THIS SHEAR IS DECREASING, PROVIDING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). ELEANOR, CURRENTLY A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON THURSDAY. BUT GUIDANCES, NOTABLY AROME, SUGGEST LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN PREVIOUSLY. THERE IS THEREFORE GREATER UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ELEANOR WILL REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST NEVERTHELESS SUGGESTS A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE IT BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CLOSE ON THURSDAY AND MORE CLEARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR, TOGETHER WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR OVER THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO COLLAPSE SHARPLY ON FRIDAY. IT IS THEREFORE A RESIDUAL SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON : - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. - 4 TO 5M WAVES UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY. - WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM. REUNION : - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHLANDS ON FRIDAY. - 4-METRE WAVES BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY.=
WTIO30 FMEE 210753 CCA ***************CORRECTIVE************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/21 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 60.4 E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/21 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 35 24H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 35 36H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 285 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35 48H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 195 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 35 60H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95 72H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.0+ ELEANOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ELEANOR SEEMS TO STILL BE SUBJECT TO EAST-NORTHEAST WIND SHEAR (ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 17KT AT 00UTC). THE GPM MICROWAVE PICTURE FROM 0308Z ALLOWED US TO LOCATE THE CENTER AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS IN SHEARED-WIND CONFIGURATION MAINTAINS A T OF 3.0+. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ESTIMATE A MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY OF AROUND 35KT. HOWEVER, OTHER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ESTIMATE MUCH HIGHER WINDS: 58KT IN 10-MINUTE WINDS (66KT IN 1-MINUTE WINDS) FOR THE SAR (SENTINEL-1A) AT 0137Z, 51KT FOR THE SMAP AT 0148Z AND 49KT FOR THE SMOS AT 0217Z. FINALLY, THE ASCAT SWATH AT 0437Z MEASURES A WIND OF 43KT, WHICH IS ACTUALLY 49KT IF WE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SATURATION OF THIS MEASUREMENT. THE MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY CHOSEN BY CMRS DE LA REUNION IS THEREFORE 50KT, CLASSIFYING ELEANOR AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MEASUREMENTS, THIS INTENSITY WAS REACHED EARLIER LAST NIGHT, SINCE 00Z. ELEANOR HAS BEGUN ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK UNDER THE EFFECT OF A HIGH-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM EAST OF SAINT-BRANDON IN MID-DAY, A 70 KM EAST, THEN EAST OF MAURITIUS ON THURSDAY. THE DISPERSION OF MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS DECREASING, GIVING FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR A TRACK EAST OF MAURITIUS. THE CMRS TRACK, REVISED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, MOVING CLOSER TO IFS AND AROME (GFS PROPOSES A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS AND IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCES BEAM, WHICH DOES NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS). AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, FOLLOWING ITS WEAKENING, ELEANOR SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTERLY TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION. THE DISPERSION IS ONCE AGAIN GREATER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD, LEAVING UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FINAL TRACK. ELEANOR IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE A COMPACT CORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THIS SHEAR IS DECREASING, PROVIDING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). ELEANOR, CURRENTLY A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON THURSDAY. BUT GUIDANCES, NOTABLY AROME, SUGGEST LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN PREVIOUSLY. THERE IS THEREFORE GREATER UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ELEANOR WILL REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST NEVERTHELESS SUGGESTS A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE IT BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CLOSE ON THURSDAY AND MORE CLEARLY ON FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR, TOGETHER WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR OVER THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO COLLAPSE SHARPLY ON FRIDAY. IT IS THEREFORE A RESIDUAL SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON : - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. - 4 TO 5M WAVES UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAURITIUS: - GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 150MM ON THURSDAY. - WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM. REUNION : - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150MM POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHLANDS ON FRIDAY. - 4-METRE WAVES BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY.=
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“埃莉诺”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：21日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“埃莉诺”，ELEANOR
中心位置：南纬15.9度、东经60.4度
强度等级：强热带风暴
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：988百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东北方向约560公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“埃莉诺”由8级加强到10级
预报结论：“埃莉诺”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月21日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 211335 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/7/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/21 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 60.3 E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 380 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/22 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35 24H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45 48H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/25 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM ELEANOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE. ELEANOR STILL APPEARS TO BE SUBJECT TO EAST-NORTHEAST WIND SHEAR (ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 18KT 06UTC). THE GCOM MICROWAVE PICTURE FROM 0925Z ALLOWED US TO LOCATE THE CENTER UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOW US TO INCREASES THE T TO 3.5. HOWEVER, OBJECTIVE CIMSS ANALYSES STILL ESTIMATE A MAXIMUM WIND OF AROUND 30 TO 35KT, ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO OUR ESTIMATE. THE ASCAT PASS AT 0525Z AND THE SAR AT 0137Z ENABLED US TO READJUST THE WIND EXTENSIONS. IN THE END, THE MAXIMUM WIND INTENSITY RETAINED BY CMRS DE LA REUNION IS STILL 50KT. ELEANOR IS MOVING SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF A HIGH-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH-WEST. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 50-100 KM EAST OF MAURITIUS BETWEEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY EVENING. THE CMRS TRACK, WHICH HAS BEEN REVISED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS, MOVING CLOSER TO IFS (GFS PROPOSES A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS AND IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCES BEAM, WHICH DOES NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A TRACK CLOSER TO MAURITIUS). AT THE END OF THE DAY, AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTERLY TRACK WELL SOUTH OF REUNION. THE DISPERSION IS ONCE AGAIN GREATER FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD, LEAVING UNCERTAINTY OVER THE FINAL TRACK. SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE, ALLOWING THE CENTER OF ELEANOR TO MOVE UNDER CONVECTION AND PROVIDING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION (STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). ELEANOR IS CURRENTLY IN THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A RAPID TRANSITION TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE INTENSIFICATION WINDOW SHOULD CLOSE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR, TOGETHER WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM'S CORE, SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO COLLAPSE SHARPLY ON FRIDAY. IT IS THEREFORE A RESIDUAL SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION AT THE END OF THE DAY. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON : - GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 12H. STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. - RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 200 MM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5M UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM. MAURITIUS: FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY EVENING: - PROBABLE GALE FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLE STORM. - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 200MM. - WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM. REUNION : - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN RELIEF FLANKS ON THURSDAY. - WAVES OF 3 TO 4M IN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS.=
最后于 2024-02-21 22:10:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS32 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 60.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 60.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 18.7S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 20.6S 58.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.2S 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 22.8S 58.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.6S 56.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 21.5S 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 60.0E. 21FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 364 NM NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211200Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 60.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 364 NM NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED PROXYVIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ALIGNING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DIRECTLY OVER THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH OBSERVABLE OVERSHOOTING TOPS FLARING THROUGH THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE OVERALL TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) STRUCTURE. DRY AIR INTRUSION HAS CEASED INTO THE CORE BUT REMAINS EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES, LIMITING EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 211210Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS AN OBSERVABLE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE INDICATES INTENSIFICATION WITH A NEWLY FORMED CONVECTIVE RING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW, RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS. ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PERSISTS FROM 12 HOURS AGO AS ENHANCED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SUPPORTS THE RECENT CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AROUND THE LLC. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 211030Z CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 211200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING ITS EXPECTED SHARP TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE SOUTH IN A EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION, FORCING THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF LA REUNION NEAR TAU 96. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE CORE REMAINS MOIST WITH A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS AT TAU 24, SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND CONTINUING WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28C-30C). AFTER TAU 24, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY WORSEN WITH INCREASING VWS (30-35 KTS), AND DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT INJECTED INTO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT. THE TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF OBJECTIVE AIDS HAVE ALIGNED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 100 NM AT TAU 24. FOLLOWING TAU 24, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH BUILDS WESTWARD, DECREASING DEFINITIVE MODEL CONFIDENCE IN THE START OF THE WESTWARD TRACK OF TC 16S JUST SOUTH OF LA REUNION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS AND ALIGNED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC AIDS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-22 04:35:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 211838 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/7/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/21 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 59.8 E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SW: 345 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/22 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55 24H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 390 SW: 270 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45 36H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35 48H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 295 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 55 60H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 230 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2024/02/25 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS HARDLY CHANGED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL VERY STRONG IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT ( INTENSE ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY AND VERY COLD TOPS) AND HAS MOVED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE CENTER. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE EVENING'S SSMIS AND GMI MICROWAVE IMAGES. THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MOVEMENT. A SMAP PASS AT 1356Z GIVES MAXIMUM WINDS CLOSE TO 45KT, WHICH SEEMS TO BE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH THE EARLY ASCAT DATA AVAILABLE. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THEIR LATE ARRIVAL AND PENDING COMPLETE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50KT. ELEANOR IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO ITS EAST, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK PLACES THE SYSTEM SOME 50-150 KM EAST OF MAURITIUS TOMORROW, THURSDAY. THE RSMC FORECAST, WHICH HAS BEEN REVISED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS AND IS CLOSER TO THE MEAN OF THE EPS 06Z ENSEMBLE. A CLOSER SCENARIO TO MAURITIUS HAS NOT BEEN RULED OUT, BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY FAVORED. AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR IS LIKELY TO BE PICKED UP AGAIN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND. THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH, ALLOWING ELEANOR'S CORE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION, PROVIDING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). ELEANOR COULD THEREFORE REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THE CONDUCIVE TIMEFRAME SHOULD CLOSE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR, COMBINED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSIONS OVER THE SYSTEM'S CORE, SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO COLLAPSE ON FRIDAY. IT IS THEREFORE A RESIDUAL SYSTEM THAT IS LIKELY TO PASS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND THIS WEEKEND, BEFORE DISAPPEARING. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND: RAPID IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. MAURITIUS: FOR THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY EVENING: - PROBABLE GALE FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLE STORM. - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 200MM. - WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER THRUSDAY EVENING WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM. REUNION : - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN RELIEF FLANKS ON THURSDAY. - WAVES OF 3 TO 4M IN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 220038 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/7/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/22 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 59.2 E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 90 NW: 95 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/22 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55 24H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 10 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 270 NW: 95 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 21.8 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5- OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED INTO A CCC (CENTRAL COLD COVER) CHARACTERIZED BY VERY COLD INFRARED CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING OVER A VAST AREA WITH NO DISTINCTIVE CURVATURE. THIS PATTERN IS GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A STABLE INTENSITY. THE LATEST MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGES DO NOT SUGGEST A STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM SINCE 18Z, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF ELEANOR'S INNER CORE. LAST EVENING'S COMPLETE ASCAT DATA SUGGEST AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO 45-50KT. CONSEQUENTLY, ELEANOR REMAINS ANALYZED AS A 50KT SEVERE STORM. ELEANOR IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO ITS EAST, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,WHILE PROGRESSIVELY BENDING SOUTHWARD. THIS TRACK PLACES THE SYSTEM SOME 50-100 KM EAST OF MAURITIUS TODAY THURSDAY. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS RELEVANT MODELS. A CLOSER SCENARIO TO MAURITIUS HAS NOT BEEN RULED OUT, BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY FAVORED. AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR IS LIKELY TO BE PICKED UP AGAIN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS, LEADING TO A WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND. IN A SUPPOSITELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF RECENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST NUMERICAL FORECASTS, THE LIKELIHOOD OF ELEANOR REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS IS DECREASING. FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR OVER THE INNER CORE , A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. IT IS THEREFORE A REMNANT SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRANSIT SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND, BEFORE SLOWLY DISAPPEARING. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MAURITIUS: - PROBABLE GALE FORCE WINDS AND POSSIBLE STORM. - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 200MM. - WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER THURSDAY EVENING WITH EVACUATION OF THE SYSTEM. REUNION : - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN RELIEF FLANKS ON THURSDAY. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5M IN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS.=
最后于 2024-02-23 21:20:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：