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WTXS32 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 59.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 59.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 21.2S 58.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.6S 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.4S 58.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.6S 57.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 22.6S 54.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.3S 52.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 59.0E. 22FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 19.3S 59.1E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 112 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17KTS WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND SMALL AMOUNTS OF STRIATED OUTFLOW WEAKLY EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP CONVECTION BRIEFLY DEVELOPED INTO A VERY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY WARMED AND DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE FAVORABLE BETWEEN 28-29C, HOWEVER OUTFLOW IS MODERATE IN THE UPPER LEVELS DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY VWS RANGING FROM 15-20KTS. DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS ALSO BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. TC 16S IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM MAURITIUS DEPICTING A LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND AN EXTRAPOLATED 22325Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE USING PERSISTENCE AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS FIMP: T4.0 - 65 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 220030Z CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 220030Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THROUGH TAU 12, TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT CONTINUES TO RIDE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR TO THE EAST BEFORE TRACKING ON A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE ALONG THE RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AROUND TAU 48, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, INDUCING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30KTS, WHICH WILL SHEAR APART TC 16S, MARKING THE ONSET OF RAPID WEAKENING. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE VORTEX WILL SHALLOW OUT, RESULTING IN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 AND PEAK AT APPROXIMATELY 65KTS AS UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A 120 KNOT JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OFFSETS STEADILY INCREASING VWS. BEYOND TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE TO A STRONG 25-30KTS AND ENCOURAGE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS THE SYSTEM STEADILY DRIES AND WEAKENS TO 45KTS BY TAU 48 AND REACH FULL DISSIPATION OF 30KTS AT TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 16S WILL TRAVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A CROSS-TRACK ERROR OF ONLY APPROXIMATELY 100NM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK CONTINUES TO AGREE THROUGH TAU 36-48 EXPECTING A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK BETWEEN 60-65KTS BY TAU 12 BEFORE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY STANDOUT MEMBER WAS THE JTWC SHIPS (GFS) MEMBER WHICH REMAINS JUST ABOVE 35KTS THROUGH TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“埃莉诺”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：22日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“埃莉诺”，ELEANOR
中心位置：南纬19.3度、东经59.1度
强度等级：强热带风暴
最大风力：10级（28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：983百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港东偏北方向约190公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“埃莉诺”由8级加强到10级
预报结论：“埃莉诺”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月22日08时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 220642 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/7/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/22 AT 0600 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 58.6 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120 48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 90 NW: 95 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 65 48H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE ELEANOR CCC (CENTRAL COLD COVER) PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY WARMED UP DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED THANKS TO RADAR IMAGERY FROM COLORADO (REUNION ISLAND), WHICH DETECTS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS. METOP01'S CNL 89 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0508UTC SHOWS AN EYE IN PHASE WITH THE PREVIOUS OBSERVATION, AS WELL AS PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S POSITION. ELEANOR CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE NORTHEAST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GIVEN AS 16KT BY THE LATEST CIMSS DATA. THIS CONSTRAINT UNDOUBTEDLY HINDERS THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL OF THE SYSTEM, LEAVING IT AT THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE FOR NOW, IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST AMERICAN OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA. FOLLOWING THE ONGOING ASCAT PARTIAL SWATH, IT SEEMS THAT WIND EXTENSIONS ARE OVERESTIMATED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE WILL BE UPDATED DURING THE NEXT ADVISORY. ELEANOR IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE BUILDING OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD. IT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CURVING GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH. THIS TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO ABOUT 50-100 KM EAST OF MAURITIUS TODAY. RSMC' TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS RELEVANT MODELS. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, FOLLOWING ITS WEAKENING, ELEANOR SHOULD BE PICKED UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS FLOW ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, INDUCING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO. IT IS NOTED THAT GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DISPERSED BEYOND SATURDAY. IN A RATHER MIXED ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A SMALL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT TREND AND THE LATEST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL FORECASTS, THE RISK OF ELEANOR REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS MOVES FURTHER AWAY. FROM TOMORROW NIGHT ONWARD, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SHARPLY INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES OF THE SYSTEM, IN CONNECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MEDIUM-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LARGE MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO FROM TOMORROW. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THUS SUSTAINABLY WEAKEN ELEANOR. IT IS THEREFORE A REMNANT LOW THAT SHOULD TRANSIT SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST OF REUNION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MAURITIUS: - LIKELY GALE FORCE WINDS. - TOTALS RAINFALL OF 50 TO 100 MM IN 24 HOURS, MAINLY DISPLACED OVER THE SEA. - CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 METERS WAVES, RAPIDLY DAMPENING DURING THE DAY, THEN TOTAL SEA LESS THAN 4 METERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY. REUNION: - UNCERTAIN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 50 TO 100 MM POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE RELIEF DURING THE DAY. - 4 METER WAVES IN AN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL.=
最后于 2024-02-22 21:55:02 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
全球热带气旋监测公报
“埃莉诺”向南偏西方向移动
时 间：22日14时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“埃莉诺”，ELEANOR
中心位置：南纬19.9度、东经58.6度
强度等级：强热带风暴
最大风力：10级（25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：989百帕
参考位置：毛里求斯路易港偏东方向约115公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“埃莉诺”强度维持不变
预报结论：“埃莉诺”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向南偏西方向移动，强度变化不大。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月22日14时00分）
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WTIO30 FMEE 221256 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/7/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/22 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 58.5 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 250 SE: 520 SW: 280 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 65 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75 36H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/25 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 0 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5 OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION OF CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER WAS DETERMINED USING 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES AMSR-2 FROM 1003Z AND DMSP-F18 FROM 1158Z, WHICH SHOW A VISIBLE EYE, AS WELL AS PARTICULARLY WELL-MARKED CONVECTION TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE METEOR'S POSITION. A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES BY D-PRINT AND AIDT ENABLE US TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 55 KT. ELEANOR IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SWELLS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THIS MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GRADUALLY CURVING NORTH-WESTWARDS. AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD THEN TRANSIT SOUTH OF REUNION ON SATURDAY. THE CMRS TRAJECTORY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS RELEVANT MODELS. IN A RATHER MIXED ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAGNATE OVERALL OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE SHARPLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN AND THEN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS COUPLED WITH A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER MASCARENE ISLANDS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN ELEANOR. A RESIDUAL SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ON SATURDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: MAURITIUS: - TOTAL SEAS BELOW 4 METERS, WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. REUNION : - INSIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. - WAVES OF 3 TO 4 M FROM THE EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY.=
最后于 2024-02-22 21:55:18 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTXS32 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 58.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 58.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 22.5S 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.5S 58.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.8S 57.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 23.5S 55.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.1S 52.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 19.4S 49.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 58.4E. 22FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 21.4S 58.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 103 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION, WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF FLARING CONVECTION REPLACING PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM TAPPED INTO STRONG POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, DRY AIR (RH NEAR 50 PCT) HAS BEGUN TO ENTRAIN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES, AS EVIDENCED BY A GENERAL PARTIAL CLEARING OF HYDROMETEORS IN EACH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 221003Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 55 KTS AT 221011Z CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 221200Z CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 221200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 24 AS IT CONTINUES TO RIDE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST WHILE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 60KTS AT TAU 12. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY TAU 12, WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30+ KTS) AND POOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT ONSETTING AND STARTING A WEAKENING TREND. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48, A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT ARISES, WHERE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE WILL TRANSITION FROM A STR EAST OF THE LLCC TO A STR WEST OF THE LLCC, CAUSING A TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 36. TC 16S IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK WESTWARD FROM TAU 36 TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 96, WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING OVER WATER PRIOR TO TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 16S WILL TRAVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 36. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36 BETWEEN THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS IS 34NM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE WESTWARD TURN. FOLLOWING THE TURN (TAU 36 TO TAU 96) CONSENSUS MEMBERS DIVERGE FROM ONE ANOTHER TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 226NM BY TAU 96, OFFERING MODERATE UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 36. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-02-23 04:40:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
WTIO30 FMEE 221842 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/7/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/22 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 58.3 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 445 SW: 295 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 70 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0 24H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 110 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 65 36H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 0 72H: 2024/02/25 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=3.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR HAS MAINTAINED VERY INTENSE CONVECTION AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS, FIRST TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER 16UTC, THE CDO PATTERN BEGAN TO DETERIORATE SLIGHTLY, EVOLVING TOWARDS A MORE SHEARED PATTERN, WITH A QUITE UNCERTAIN CENTER LOCATION. THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING NORTH-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE ALSO SHOWN BY THE 1545Z GPM MICROWAVE PASS, WITH CONVECTION BEING OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SMAP PASS AT 1431Z WAS AVAILABLE TOO LATE TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT, BUT INDICATES WINDS UP TO 51KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OBJECTIVE CIMSS ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 50/55KT (10MIN WINDS EQUIVALENT). SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 4.0 AND 3.5 OVER THE PERIOD. INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LEFT AT 55KT AT 18UTC. ELEANOR SHOULD KEEP ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING, BETWEEN A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. ITS WEAKENING SHOULD THEN LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE MOVEMENT THEN A WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD TURN, DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TRANSIT SOUTH OF REUNION THIS WEEKEND. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS, WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AND LEADING TO DRY AIR INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL WON'T HELP EITHER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUITE RAPID WEAKENING ALTHOUGH SOME GALES COULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TO REMNANT CONVECTION. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, IT WILL ONLY BE A WEAKENING CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT VORTEX, WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF THE SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING OFF THE MALAGASY COAST. IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS: - MAURITIUS : SEA STATE IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY, WITH MEAN WAVES NOW BELOW 4 METERS. - REUNION : WAVES NEAR 4 M OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTS, THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING ON FRIDAY. - NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER MADAGASCAR.=
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WTIO30 FMEE 230037 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/7/20232024 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR) 2.A POSITION 2024/02/23 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 58.2 E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 75 48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 0 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 335 NW: 150 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 110 24H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 0 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0 36H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0 48H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 0 60H: 2024/02/25 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T= 3.5- CI=3.5+ OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR HAS KEPT A SHEARED PATTERN. AROUND 18UTC THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GOT PARTIALLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CDO, THEN A NEW POWERFUL CONVECTIVE BURST DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER FROM 21UTC ONWARDS, PROBABLY CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RESUME ITS SOUTHWARD ACCELERATION. MICROWAVE PASSES AMSR2 2058Z AND SSMIS-F18 2318Z SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL CORE IS BECOMMING BROADER AND OPEN ON ITS NORTHERN SIDE, DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE SYSTEM'S INERTIA LEAD US TO KEEP INTENSITY AT 55KT, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS INTENSITY REMAINS ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AIDT AND DPRINT CIMSS ESTIMATES. ELEANOR SHOULD KEEP ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY MIDDAY, BETWEEN A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. ITS WEAKENING SHOULD CAUSE IT TO SLOW DOWN THEN TURN WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING OFF THE MALAGASY COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AND LEADING TO DRY AIR INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL WON'T HELP EITHER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUITE RAPID WEAKENING ALTHOUGH SOME GALES COULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TO REMNANT CONVECTION. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, IT WILL ONLY BE A WEAK REMNANT VORTEX. THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER CAUSES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS.=
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WTXS32 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 22.3S 57.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 57.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 23.2S 57.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 23.1S 56.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 22.7S 55.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 22.0S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 57.4E. 23FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 NM SOUTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 22.3S 57.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 132 NM SOUTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 05 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN FLARING CONVECTION BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF EARLIER SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF VORTEX TILT IN THE SAME DIRECTION. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST CONTRIBUTES TO A UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE SYSTEM. FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENCOURAGED BY A JET MAXIMUM TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C, ARE OFFSETTING THE STRONG (30 KNOTS OR GREATER) NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, PREVENTING RAPID DEGRADATION OF THE SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE USING SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) IMAGERY, PARTIALLY REVEALING AN LLCC ON THE NORTHWEST EDGED OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ALSO ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TRANSITORY, MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 222123Z CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 230000Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE VWS: 30+ KTS SST: 27-28 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: TC 16S IS ANTICIPATED TO FULLY DISSIPATE TO 30KTS BY TAU 48. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT SLOWS TO 5KTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOUR AS THE VORTEX SHALLOWS OUT DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IT IS ENGULFED BY DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB. ONCE THE DECOUPLING PROCESS IS COMPLETE AROUND TAU 12, AND THE VORTEX BECOMES SHALLOWER, IT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK MOTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DECLINE FROM 50KTS, TO 30 KNOTS OR LESS BY TAU 48 AS A RESULT OF THE SIGNIFICANT VWS AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR COMPLETELY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WILL TURN FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AROUND TAU 12. JTWC CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK ERROR, ONLY OPENING TO 120NM BY TAU 48. JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ALSO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC WHICH EXPECTS A LOWER RATE OF WEAKENING INITIALLY BUT STILL ARRIVES AT 30 KNOTS BY TAU 48. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW// NNNN
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全球热带气旋监测公报
“埃莉诺”向偏南方向移动
时 间：23日08时（北京时）
海 域：南印度洋
命 名：“埃莉诺”，ELEANOR
中心位置：南纬22.8度、东经58.2度
强度等级：强热带风暴
最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）
中心气压：984百帕
参考位置：马达加斯加陶拉纳鲁偏东方向约1170公里的洋面上
变化过程：过去24小时，“埃莉诺”由10级加强到11级
预报结论：“埃莉诺”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。
图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2024年02月23日08时00分）