WTIO30 FMEE 220642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 58.6 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/22 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 0

24H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 23.0 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 65

48H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 0

72H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE ELEANOR CCC (CENTRAL COLD COVER) PATTERN
HAS GRADUALLY WARMED UP DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THE CLOUD SYSTEM
CENTER HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED THANKS TO RADAR IMAGERY FROM COLORADO
(REUNION ISLAND), WHICH DETECTS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLAND OF MAURITIUS. METOP01'S CNL 89 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM
0508UTC SHOWS AN EYE IN PHASE WITH THE PREVIOUS OBSERVATION, AS WELL
AS PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S POSITION.
ELEANOR CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE NORTHEAST VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, GIVEN AS 16KT BY THE LATEST CIMSS DATA. THIS CONSTRAINT
UNDOUBTEDLY HINDERS THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL OF THE
SYSTEM, LEAVING IT AT THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE FOR NOW, IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST AMERICAN OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA. FOLLOWING THE
ONGOING ASCAT PARTIAL SWATH, IT SEEMS THAT WIND EXTENSIONS ARE
OVERESTIMATED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE WILL BE UPDATED DURING
THE NEXT ADVISORY.

ELEANOR IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE BUILDING OF A RIDGE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD. IT SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, CURVING GRADUALLY TO
THE SOUTH. THIS TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO ABOUT 50-100 KM EAST OF
MAURITIUS TODAY. RSMC' TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS RELEVANT
MODELS. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, FOLLOWING ITS WEAKENING, ELEANOR
SHOULD BE PICKED UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS FLOW ON THE NORTH
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, INDUCING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SOUTH
OF THE MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO. IT IS NOTED THAT GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY
DISPERSED BEYOND SATURDAY.

IN A RATHER MIXED ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
A SMALL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT TREND AND THE LATEST AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL FORECASTS, THE RISK OF ELEANOR REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE
STATUS MOVES FURTHER AWAY. FROM TOMORROW NIGHT ONWARD, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL SHARPLY INCREASE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES
OF THE SYSTEM, IN CONNECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MEDIUM-TROPOSPHERE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
DROP IN OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LARGE MASCARENES
ARCHIPELAGO FROM TOMORROW. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD THUS SUSTAINABLY
WEAKEN ELEANOR. IT IS THEREFORE A REMNANT LOW THAT SHOULD TRANSIT
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST OF REUNION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, BEFORE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
MAURITIUS:
- LIKELY GALE FORCE WINDS.
- TOTALS RAINFALL OF 50 TO 100 MM IN 24 HOURS, MAINLY DISPLACED OVER
THE SEA.
- CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 METERS WAVES, RAPIDLY DAMPENING DURING THE DAY,
THEN TOTAL SEA LESS THAN 4 METERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING AWAY.

REUNION:
- UNCERTAIN RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 50 TO 100 MM POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE RELIEF DURING THE DAY.
- 4 METER WAVES IN AN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL.=

全球热带气旋监测公报

WTIO30 FMEE 221256
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 58.5 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 520 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/23 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

24H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 75

36H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 0

72H: 2024/02/25 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION OF CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
HAS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER WAS DETERMINED USING 37 GHZ  MICROWAVE IMAGES
AMSR-2 FROM 1003Z AND DMSP-F18 FROM 1158Z, WHICH SHOW A VISIBLE EYE,
AS WELL AS PARTICULARLY WELL-MARKED CONVECTION TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE METEOR'S
POSITION. A SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES BY
D-PRINT AND AIDT ENABLE US TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 55 KT.

ELEANOR IS HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SWELLS
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE THIS MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GRADUALLY CURVING
NORTH-WESTWARDS. AS IT WEAKENS, ELEANOR SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT SHOULD THEN TRANSIT SOUTH OF REUNION ON SATURDAY. THE CMRS
TRAJECTORY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS RELEVANT MODELS.

IN A RATHER MIXED ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ALOFT, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL STAGNATE OVERALL OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE SHARPLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN AND THEN
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS COUPLED WITH A
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER
MASCARENE ISLANDS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN ELEANOR. A
RESIDUAL SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TRANSIT TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ON SATURDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING
WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
MAURITIUS:
- TOTAL SEAS BELOW 4 METERS, WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY.

REUNION :
- INSIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
ISLAND.
- WAVES OF 3 TO 4 M FROM THE EAST, THEN SOUTHEAST, GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING ON FRIDAY.=

WTXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 008    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 58.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 58.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 22.5S 58.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 23.5S 58.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 23.8S 57.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 23.5S 55.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 22.1S 52.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 19.4S 49.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 58.4E. 22FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S 
(ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 
231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDXS32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR)
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.4S 58.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 103 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF
FLARING CONVECTION REPLACING PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS ASSESSED AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. 
THE SYSTEM TAPPED INTO STRONG POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT COURTESY OF AN 
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. HOWEVER, 
DRY AIR (RH NEAR 50 PCT) HAS BEGUN TO ENTRAIN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLES, AS EVIDENCED BY A GENERAL PARTIAL CLEARING OF 
HYDROMETEORS IN EACH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 221003Z AMSR2 89GHZ
SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 55 KTS AT 221011Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 221200Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 221200Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD 
FROM TAU 00 TO TAU 24 AS IT CONTINUES TO RIDE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
A STR TO THE EAST WHILE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 
60KTS AT TAU 12. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED 
TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY TAU 12, WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(30+ KTS) AND POOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT ONSETTING AND STARTING A WEAKENING 
TREND. FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 48, A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT ARISES, 
WHERE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE WILL TRANSITION FROM A STR EAST 
OF THE LLCC TO A STR WEST OF THE LLCC, CAUSING A TURN TO A WESTWARD 
TRACK BY TAU 36. TC 16S IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK WESTWARD FROM TAU 36 
TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 96, WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING OVER 
WATER PRIOR TO TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TC 16S WILL TRAVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
24, AND THEN TURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 36. THE CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 36 BETWEEN THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS IS 34NM,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE WESTWARD TURN. FOLLOWING THE TURN
(TAU 36 TO TAU 96) CONSENSUS MEMBERS DIVERGE FROM ONE ANOTHER TO A
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 226NM BY TAU 96, OFFERING MODERATE UNCERTAINTY
AFTER TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

WTIO30 FMEE 221842
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 58.3 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 445 SW: 295 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 70 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/23 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 65

36H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 0

48H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0

60H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 0

72H: 2024/02/25 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR HAS MAINTAINED VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS, FIRST TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. AFTER 16UTC, THE CDO PATTERN BEGAN TO DETERIORATE
SLIGHTLY, EVOLVING TOWARDS A MORE SHEARED PATTERN, WITH A QUITE
UNCERTAIN CENTER LOCATION. THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING
NORTH-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE ALSO SHOWN BY THE 1545Z GPM
MICROWAVE PASS, WITH CONVECTION BEING OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A SMAP PASS AT 1431Z WAS AVAILABLE TOO LATE TO BE TAKEN
INTO ACCOUNT, BUT INDICATES WINDS UP TO 51KT IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. OBJECTIVE CIMSS ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 50/55KT (10MIN WINDS
EQUIVALENT). SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
4.0 AND 3.5 OVER THE PERIOD. INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LEFT AT 55KT AT
18UTC.

ELEANOR SHOULD KEEP ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING,
BETWEEN A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE
EAST. ITS WEAKENING SHOULD THEN LEAD TO A SLOWING OF THE MOVEMENT
THEN A WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD TURN, DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE WEAKENED SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN TRANSIT SOUTH OF REUNION THIS WEEKEND.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS, WITH
INCREASING NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF
A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AND
LEADING TO DRY AIR INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE DECREASING
OCEANIC POTENTIAL WON'T HELP EITHER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUITE RAPID
WEAKENING ALTHOUGH SOME GALES COULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TO REMNANT CONVECTION. FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS, IT WILL ONLY BE A WEAKENING CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT
VORTEX, WHICH WILL DRIFT OFF THE SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND BEFORE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING OFF THE MALAGASY COAST.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MAURITIUS : SEA STATE IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY, WITH MEAN WAVES NOW BELOW 4 METERS.
- REUNION : WAVES NEAR 4 M OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTS, THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING ON FRIDAY.
- NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER MADAGASCAR.=

WTIO30 FMEE 230037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 58.2 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/23 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 110

24H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0

48H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 0

60H: 2024/02/25 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T= 3.5- CI=3.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR HAS KEPT A SHEARED PATTERN. AROUND
18UTC THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GOT PARTIALLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE CDO, THEN A NEW POWERFUL CONVECTIVE BURST DEVELOPED NEAR
THE CENTER FROM 21UTC ONWARDS, PROBABLY CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RESUME
ITS SOUTHWARD ACCELERATION. MICROWAVE PASSES AMSR2 2058Z AND
SSMIS-F18 2318Z SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL CORE IS BECOMMING BROADER AND
OPEN ON ITS NORTHERN SIDE, DUE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR. THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND THE SYSTEM'S INERTIA LEAD US TO KEEP INTENSITY AT
55KT, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
THIS INTENSITY REMAINS ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BUT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AIDT AND DPRINT CIMSS ESTIMATES.

ELEANOR SHOULD KEEP ITS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY MIDDAY,
BETWEEN A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE
EAST. ITS WEAKENING SHOULD CAUSE IT TO SLOW DOWN THEN TURN
WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF
REUNION ISLAND THIS WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING OFF THE MALAGASY
COAST.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING WITH INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH,
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AND LEADING TO DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL WON'T
HELP EITHER. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUITE RAPID WEAKENING ALTHOUGH SOME
GALES COULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND TO REMNANT CONVECTION. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, IT WILL
ONLY BE A WEAK REMNANT VORTEX.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER CAUSES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS.=

WTXS32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 009    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230000Z --- NEAR 22.3S 57.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 57.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 23.2S 57.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 23.1S 56.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 22.7S 55.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 22.0S 53.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 57.4E.
23FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
132 NM SOUTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z AND 240300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

WDXS32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING 
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.3S 57.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 132 NM SOUTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 05 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN FLARING CONVECTION
BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF EARLIER SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
A MODERATE AMOUNT OF VORTEX TILT IN THE SAME DIRECTION. DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST CONTRIBUTES TO A UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT AS IT CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE SYSTEM. FAVORABLE OUTFLOW 
ENCOURAGED BY A JET MAXIMUM TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C, ARE OFFSETTING THE STRONG (30 KNOTS OR 
GREATER) NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, PREVENTING RAPID DEGRADATION OF THE 
SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH LOW 
CONFIDENCE USING SHORTWAVE INFRARED (SWIR) IMAGERY, PARTIALLY 
REVEALING AN LLCC ON THE NORTHWEST EDGED OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ALSO ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TRANSITORY,
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FIMP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 222123Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 230000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: TC 16S IS ANTICIPATED TO FULLY
DISSIPATE TO 30KTS BY TAU 48. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT SLOWS TO 5KTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOUR AS THE
VORTEX SHALLOWS OUT DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IT IS
ENGULFED BY DRY AIR ABOVE 700MB. ONCE THE DECOUPLING PROCESS IS
COMPLETE AROUND TAU 12, AND THE VORTEX BECOMES SHALLOWER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO COMMENCE A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AS IT COMES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK MOTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY
DECLINE FROM 50KTS, TO 30 KNOTS OR LESS BY TAU 48 AS A RESULT OF THE
SIGNIFICANT VWS AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR COMPLETELY WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WILL TURN FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AROUND TAU 12. JTWC CONSENSUS
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK ERROR, ONLY OPENING TO 120NM
BY TAU 48. JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ALSO IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC WHICH EXPECTS A
LOWER RATE OF WEAKENING INITIALLY BUT STILL ARRIVES AT 30 KNOTS BY
TAU 48. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
NNNN

全球热带气旋监测公报

WTIO30 FMEE 230631
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 58.2 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 315 SW: 360 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 75

24H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 0

48H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2024/02/25 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2024/02/26 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR HAS REMAINED IN A SHEARED
CONFIGURATION. THE CLOUDS HAVE ALSO WARMED UP OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS,
LEAVING CONVECTION ACTIVITY ONLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
RECENT ASCAT SWATH OF 0448UTC PROVIDED VALUES OF 43KT IN THE
SOUTH-WEST SECTOR, CORRESPONDING TO ALMOST 49KT IN RECALIBRATED
VALUES. THESE DATA VALIDATE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.5, LEAVING
ELEANOR AT 50KT, STILL AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THE
POSITION ESTIMATED BY THE ASCAT SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF A SLOWDOWN,
SUGGESTING THE NEXT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTH-WEST.

ELEANOR HEADS SOUTH THIS FRIDAY UNTIL MIDDAY BETWEEN A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW LESS PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WEAKENING, THE
SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN BEFORE TURNING WEST-NORTH-WEST, LED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT SHOULD THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION THIS WEEKEND,
HEADING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, IN LINE
WITH ITS RESIDUAL STRUCTURE, ELEANOR WILL MERGE INTO A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH, DISAPPEARING CLOSE TO ITS AREA OF ORIGIN ALMOST 10 DAYS
LATER.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING, WITH AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, CAUSING
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AND DRY AIR TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS DETERIORATION IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF ELEANOR, ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS MAY
PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS, ELEANOR WILL EVOLVE INTO A FILLING LOW AND THEN
TRANSITING TOWARDS MADAGASCAR AS A REMNANT LOW. ELEANOR'S CIRCULATION
WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH BY MONDAY, WITH NO RISK
OF REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPLY.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER CAUSES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS.=

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