WTIO30 FMEE 230631
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/7/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 58.2 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/23 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 315 SW: 360 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 75

24H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 0

48H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2024/02/25 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

72H: 2024/02/26 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5- CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ELEANOR HAS REMAINED IN A SHEARED
CONFIGURATION. THE CLOUDS HAVE ALSO WARMED UP OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS,
LEAVING CONVECTION ACTIVITY ONLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
RECENT ASCAT SWATH OF 0448UTC PROVIDED VALUES OF 43KT IN THE
SOUTH-WEST SECTOR, CORRESPONDING TO ALMOST 49KT IN RECALIBRATED
VALUES. THESE DATA VALIDATE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.5, LEAVING
ELEANOR AT 50KT, STILL AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THE
POSITION ESTIMATED BY THE ASCAT SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF A SLOWDOWN,
SUGGESTING THE NEXT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTH-WEST.

ELEANOR HEADS SOUTH THIS FRIDAY UNTIL MIDDAY BETWEEN A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW LESS PRESENT AND THE SYSTEM WEAKENING, THE
SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN BEFORE TURNING WEST-NORTH-WEST, LED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. IT SHOULD THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION THIS WEEKEND,
HEADING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, IN LINE
WITH ITS RESIDUAL STRUCTURE, ELEANOR WILL MERGE INTO A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH, DISAPPEARING CLOSE TO ITS AREA OF ORIGIN ALMOST 10 DAYS
LATER.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING, WITH AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, CAUSING
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AND DRY AIR TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS DETERIORATION IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF ELEANOR, ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS MAY
PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS, ELEANOR WILL EVOLVE INTO A FILLING LOW AND THEN
TRANSITING TOWARDS MADAGASCAR AS A REMNANT LOW. ELEANOR'S CIRCULATION
WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH BY MONDAY, WITH NO RISK
OF REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPLY.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER CAUSES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS.=

全球热带气旋监测公报

WTIO30 FMEE 231213
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/7/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 58.4 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 360 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/24 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2024/02/24 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/25 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 0

48H: 2024/02/25 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

60H: 2024/02/26 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

72H: 2024/02/26 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=NIL CI=NIL

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM, WITH
ELEANOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY VERY MUCH REDUCED AND REMAINING IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS MAKES IT EASIER TO LOCATE: THE LOW-LEVEL
VORTEX IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON VISIBLE IMAGES. ELEANOR HAS PRACTICALLY
STOPPED MOVING FOR ALMOST 3 HOURS. IN SUCH A SHEARED CONFIGURATION
AND IMPACTED BY THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE HEART OF THE
SYSTEM, DVORAK ANALYSIS IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE THEN
ESTIMATED BY REGULAR DECAY, LEAVING AN ESTIMATE AT 40KT. ELEANOR IS
DOWNGRADED TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECASTS, ONLY THE SHORT RANGES ARE
CHANGING SLIGHTLY. ELEANOR CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS THIS FRIDAY,
BUT IS SLOWING DOWN UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE LESS PRESENT UPPER-LEVEL
DIRECTING FLOW AND THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-NORTH-WEST, DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT
SHOULD THEN TRANSIT SOUTH OF REUNION THIS WEEKEND, HEADING TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, IN LINE WITH ITS RESIDUAL
STRUCTURE, ELEANOR WILL MERGE INTO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
MADAGASCAN COAST, DISAPPEARING CLOSE TO ITS BIRTH ZONE ALMOST 10 DAYS
LATER.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TOTALLY HOSTILE TO ELEANOR: A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND, ABOVE ALL, INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR THAT HAVE
REACHED THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, LEADING
TO A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF ELEANOR. STRONG WINDS MAY PERSIST IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT, SO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS, ELEANOR WILL EVOLVE INTO A FILLING LOW AND THEN
TRANSITING TOWARDS MADAGASCAR AS A REMNANT LOW. ELEANOR'S CIRCULATION
WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH BY MONDAY, WITH NO RISK
OF REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPLY.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER CAUSES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS.=

WTXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 010    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231200Z --- NEAR 23.8S 58.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 58.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 24.1S 58.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 23.6S 56.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 22.9S 54.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 58.4E.
23FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
231200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (LINCOLN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY 
UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR)
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 23.8S 58.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 232 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
   MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) EXPERIENCING VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
(ABOVE 30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MADE EVIDENT BY A
COMPLETE SOUTHEASTWARD DECOUPLING OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. AS INDICATED BY NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE, A GENERAL PARTIAL CLEARING AND EVAPORATION OF CLOUDS IS
OBSERVED IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OCCURRING OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26-27C) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, WITH ALL OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ASSESSED AS
UNCONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND FURTHER DEGRADING OVER TIME,
THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSERVABLE IN A 231145Z
GOES-IO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STR OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 47 KTS AT 231018Z
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 231100Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 231100Z
   CIMSS DMINT: 44KTS AT 231157Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 00 TO 12 AS IT TRANSITIONS STEERING
MECHANISM FROM A STR EAST OF THE LLCC TO A WEAK STR OVER SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR. FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 36, TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TAKE A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. THE ASSESSED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED
TO WEAKEN TC 16S, BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER AT OR 
PRIOR TO TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL
AGREEMENT THAT TC 16S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TAU 00 TO
TAU 12, AND THEN TURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MAINTAIN
THROUGH TAU 36. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GREAT ALIGNMENT,
SUGGESTING TC 16S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM TAU 00 (45 KTS) TO TAU
36 (30KTS), DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 36.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 36 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 36 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

WTIO30 FMEE 231830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/7/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELEANOR)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 58.2 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 545 SW: 350 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 205 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/24 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 85

24H: 2024/02/24 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 0

36H: 2024/02/25 06 UTC: 22.2 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

48H: 2024/02/25 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

60H: 2024/02/26 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

72H: 2024/02/26 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FATE OF ELEANOR OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT ONLY WEAK BUT ALSO CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, QUITE FAR FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, SO THAT THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE IN THIS CONTEXT IS NO LONGER RELEVANT. IN TERMS OF
MOVEMENT, THE METEOR APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARDS, BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. ELEANOR CONTINUES TO ENDURE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THAT ARE DETRIMENTAL TO ITS INTEGRITY, DUE TO ITS
INTERACTION WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH LOCATED FURTHER WEST. THE
RESULT IS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF AROUND 18KT FROM THE
WEST-NORTH-WEST, ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS DATA, WHICH NOT ONLY
CONVEYS A LOT OF DRY AIR OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER, BUT ALSO
TILTS THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM VERTICALLY. GIVEN THESE OBJECTIVE
CONDITIONS, RECENT MODEL ANALYSES, AND OBJECTIVE AMERICAN ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES, ELEANOR IS TEMPORARILY KEPT AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STAGE FOR 35 KT, AS GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO PERSIST IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS ESTIMATE IS CORROBORATED IN THE
MEANTIME BY THE ASCAT-B PASS, WHICH FELL SHORTLY AFTER THE ANALYSIS
TIME.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ELEANOR HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN WESTWARDS, AND WILL CURVE FURTHER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOMORROW, DRIVEN BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE METEOR SHOULD
THEN PASS RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION THIS WEEKEND, HEADING
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, IN LINE WITH ITS
RESIDUAL STRUCTURE, ELEANOR WILL MERGE INTO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE MADAGASCAN COAST, DISAPPEARING CLOSE TO ITS BIRTH ZONE ALMOST 10
DAYS LATER.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TOTALLY HOSTILE FOR ELEANOR: A
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND, ABOVE ALL, INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR THAT
HAVE REACHED THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN THESE
CONDITIONS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES ALMOST NON-EXISTENT, LEADING
TO A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF ELEANOR. STRONG WINDS MAY PERSIST IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT, SO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS, ELEANOR WILL EVOLVE INTO A FILLING LOW AND THEN
TRANSITING TOWARDS MADAGASCAR AS A REMNANT LOW. ELEANOR'S CIRCULATION
WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH BY MONDAY, WITH NO RISK
OF REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPLY.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER CAUSES SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS.

LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER
INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE
HIGHT SEAS FOR METAREA VII, ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES
OF SOUTH-AFRICA (FQZA31 FAPR).=

WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR) WARNING NR 011    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240000Z --- NEAR 23.8S 58.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 58.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 23.4S 56.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 57.6E.
24FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (ELEANOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
225 NM SOUTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 20 TO 25 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 
HAS LEFT A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSERVED IN 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. ELEANOR IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG VWS, 
THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO CHARACTERIZED BY DRY, 40 TO 50 
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY MID-LEVEL AIR, AND 25 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. AFTER FULLY DISSIPATING BELOW TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE REMNANTS OF TC 16S ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS IS THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. 
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P 
(LINCOLN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

全球热带气旋监测公报