全球热带气旋监测公报

预报：吕心艳  签发：董林  2024 年 03 月 15 日 10 时 

“菲利波”已变性为温带气旋

“菲利波”已于昨天（14日）夜间（北京时）减弱并变性为温带气旋，中央气象台停止对其监测。

（这是关于“菲利波”的最后一期监测公报）

WTIO30 FMEE 141247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/8/20232024
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 33.1 S / 41.9 E
(THIRTY THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 26 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 380 SW: 530 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 405 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 190 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.8 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 480 SW: 435 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 305 SW: 325 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 38.0 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 415 SW: 390 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 295 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85

36H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 39.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 360 SW: 415 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 285 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 85

48H: 2024/03/16 12 UTC: 41.1 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 195 SW: 405 NW: 530
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 130 SW: 205 NW: 295

60H: 2024/03/17 00 UTC: 42.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 360


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS MORNING AND
REMAINS LOW. A CENTER CAN BE LOCATED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES IN
THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. ACCORDING TO THE
CIMSS WEBSITE, FILIPO IS SUBJECT TO STRONG DEEP NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FILIPO HAS LOST ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ACCORDING TO PHASE DIAGRAMS AND IS CURRENTLY
AT THE STAGE OF A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MOREOVER, AMSU
MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT THE WARM CORE DOES NOT EXCEED THE HEIGHT OF
THE MID-TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, THE ASCAT PASS AT 0709Z MEASURED WINDS
OF 75KT, CONFIRMING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S
INTEGRATION VIA THE TALWEG AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION. WE THEREFORE
USE THIS VALUE AS THE MAXIMUM MEAN WIND INTENSITY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND LITTLE
DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE POWERFUL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND THE EASTERN
EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH IS NOW PREDOMINANT, CAUSING IT TO
ACCELERATE RAPIDLY. IT SHOULD EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSIT OVER COOLER WATERS. THE JET'S INTERACTION AT THE EDGE OF THE
TALWEG IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD FILIPO TO
INTENSIFY EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY, BUT AT THE STAGE OF A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ON THE EVE OF THE WEEKEND, FILIPO SHOULD
BEGIN A SECOND LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION, FAR FROM
INHABITED LAND.

FILIPO GENERATES A CYCLONIC SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
AMSTERDAM COAST, WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M AND UP TO 12M IN MAXIMUM
HEIGHT.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=

全球热带气旋监测公报

WTIO30 FMEE 140648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/8/20232024
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 31.3 S / 38.9 E
(THIRTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 23 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 360 SW: 600 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 285 SW: 415 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 165 SE: 0 SW: 140 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 415 SW: 445 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

24H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 37.1 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 600 SE: 425 SW: 415 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SW: 120 NW: 85

36H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.5 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 400 SW: 445 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 270 SW: 295 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 45 SW: 110 NW: 85

48H: 2024/03/16 06 UTC: 40.1 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 350 SW: 405 NW: 480
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 260



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY SINCE LAST NIGHT, BUT
REMAINS WEAK. FILIPO IS SUBJECT TO STRONG DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON
THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A
CENTER IS STILL CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SSMIS FROM
DMSP-F18 AT 0131Z AND SSMIS FROM DMSP-F18 AT 0341Z. PHASE DIAGRAMS
AND THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM'S HOT CORE HAS
ADOPTED AN ASYMMETRICAL, SHALLOW STRUCTURE, CONFIRMING A BAROCLINIC
TRANSITION. FILIPO HAS THEREFORE LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
AND HAS JUST BECOME A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER, A CURVED
BAND HAS FORMED ON THE INFRARED IMAGERY, SHOWING A NEW ORGANIZATION
OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, THE RAPID INTEGRATION OF THE SYSTEM BY
THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LEADS US TO BELIEVE THAT ITS INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED AND THAT ITS MAXIMUM MEAN WINDS ARE REACHING 60KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK.
GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND LITTLE DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE POWERFUL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE AND THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INTERACTION WITH
THE TROUGH IS NOW PREDOMINANT, CAUSING IT TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY. IT
SHOULD EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSIT OVER COOLER WATERS. THE JET'S INTERACTION AT THE EDGE OF THE
TALWEG IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD FILIPO TO
INTENSIFY EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY, BUT AT THE STAGE OF A
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ON THE EVE OF THE WEEKEND, FILIPO SHOULD
BEGIN A SECOND LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION, FAR FROM
INHABITED LAND.

FILIPO NO LONGER PRESENTS A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

全球热带气旋监测公报

WTIO30 FMEE 140020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.8 S / 36.5 E
(TWENTY NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 345 SW: 270 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 325 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 415 SW: 425 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 55

24H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.9 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 405 SW: 370 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

36H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 37.4 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 445 SW: 325 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75

48H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 38.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 360 SW: 335 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 205

60H: 2024/03/16 12 UTC: 40.4 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 215 SW: 350 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 260


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ACTIVITY REMAINS
WEAK AND UNMARKED, SUBJECT TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF FILIPO. THIS CONTEXT IS BEGINNING TO BRING DRY AIR CLOSE
TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX. THE 1953Z
ASCAT-C CONFIRMS AN ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH LOW-LAYER PATTERN, WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS SPEED OF 40KT IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST SECTORS.
THE COMPLETE MICROWAVE SWATHS OF METOP-A AND B SUPERIMPOSED ON THE
LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER IS LOCATED WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. SUPPORTED BY THIS SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS, OBJECTIVE AMERICAN DATA (SATCON / DPRINT / DMINT) ARGUE IN
FAVOR OF MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK.
GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND LITTLE DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH IS NOW PREDOMINANT, CAUSING IT TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY. IT
SHOULD EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

FILIPO SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A BAROCLINIC CONTEXT
INCREASINGLY MARKED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL TROUGH.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD,
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST IFS AND GFS RUNS, FILIPO SHOULD GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH
INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED ASYMMETRICAL SURFACE WINDS AND AN
INCREASINGLY THIN UPPER-AIR WARM CORE. FILIPO COULD REACH THE STAGE
OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CURRENT
FORECASTS POINT TO THE START OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE AT
THE SAME TIME. IN FACT, FILIPO'S TRANSIT OVER LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND A SHARPLY RISING SHEAR CONTEXT SHOULD RAPIDLY CAUSE IT TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE DAY. ON THE EVE OF THE
WEEKEND, FILIPO SHOULD BEGIN A SECOND LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
DEPRESSION, FAR FROM INHABITED LAND.

FILIPO NO LONGER PRESENTS A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNING NR 007    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131800Z --- NEAR 28.2S 35.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 35.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 30.9S 39.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 34.0S 44.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 28.9S 36.6E.
13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211
NM SOUTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD
IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AS IT APPROACHED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
UNDER THE STRONG JET WINDS. THE RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED 100+ NM 
POLEWARD. ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 17S HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY UNDERGO EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND BY TAU 24 WILL BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD
CORE LOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 998
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

WTIO30 FMEE 131832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.2 S / 35.6 E
(TWENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 21 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/14 06 UTC: 30.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 325 SW: 360 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2024/03/14 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 370 SW: 360 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2024/03/15 06 UTC: 36.8 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 405 SW: 295 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

48H: 2024/03/15 18 UTC: 38.3 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 435 SW: 325 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 85

60H: 2024/03/16 06 UTC: 39.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 215 SW: 315 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 205


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION INITIALLY CONTAINED IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BY THE EFFECT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCES HAS
GRADUALLY FADED AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
NOCTURNAL CYCLE, HOWEVER, IT SEEMS TO HAVE GRADUALLY RESUMED. THE
SUCCESSION OF THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (AMSR-2 FROM 1118Z,
SSMIS-F18 FROM 1416Z AND SSMIS-F16 FROM 1615Z) SHOW A VERY BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOCALIZED IN THE
SOUTH-WEST SEMICIRCLE, NO DOUBT DUE TO A NORTHERLY SHEAR GIVEN FOR
20KT BY CIMSS. INDEED, IT WOULD APPEAR FROM THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGES THAT FILIPO IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF AFRICA. IN THIS CONTEXT,
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE BASED ON THE DVORAK METHOD IS LIMITED; IT IS
THEREFORE BASED ON OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF SATCON AND DMINT/DPRINT AS
WELL AS MODEL ANALYSES, SUGGESTING MEAN WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 40KT.

SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, FILIPO HAS BEEN DIVING SOUTHEASTWARDS,
ACCELERATING ITS COURSE AND MOVING AWAY FROM INHABITED LAND. THAT
SAID, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. GUIDANCE IS
STABLE AND NOT VERY DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARDS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. INTERACTION WITH THIS
TROUGH IS CAUSING IT TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY, AND IT SHOULD EVACUATE
DEFINITIVELY TOWARDS SOUTHERN LATITUDES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FILIPO SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE CONTEXT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ON THE EDGE OF A SUB-TROPICAL TROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSIFICATION DEPENDING ON THE ORGANIZATION
OF THE LOWER LAYERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND ABOUT THE EFFECT OF
SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. IN FACT, THE SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, BUT
FILIPO'S RAPID MOVEMENT COULD ENABLE IT TO ESCAPE. IT SHOULD
THEREFORE REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY 12UTC, CLOSE TO
60-65KT, BUT CURRENT FORECASTS POINT TO THE START OF AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE AT THE SAME TIME (THE SCENARIO OF
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON THURSDAY AT 12UTC
IS NO LONGER FORECAST, BUT IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT). IN FACT,
FILIPO'S MOVE INTO COLDER WATERS AND SHEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY
CAUSE IT TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM THURSDAY EVENING
ONWARDS. ON THE EVE OF THE WEEKEND, FILIPO SHOULD BEGIN A SECOND LIFE
AS AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION, FAR FROM INHABITED LAND.

IMPACTS EXPECTED ON LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

NORTHEAST SOUTH AFRICA :
- RAIN: 50-100MM STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING, THEN IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT.=

WTIO30 FMEE 131240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/8/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FILIPO)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7 S / 33.9 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 285 SW: 0 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/14 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

24H: 2024/03/14 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

36H: 2024/03/15 00 UTC: 35.5 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

48H: 2024/03/15 12 UTC: 37.8 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65

60H: 2024/03/16 00 UTC: 39.5 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 380 SW: 285 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 270 SW: 110 NW: 155


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0


OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, FILIPO HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS,
AWAY FROM INHABITED LAND. DESPITE ITS RETURN TO WARM WATERS AND A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES, CONVECTION
- ESSENTIALLY LINKED TO A CONVERGENCE OF WINDS BETWEEN THE SYSTEM'S
CIRCULATION AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW CHANNELED BY THE AFRICAN COAST -
REMAINS FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE ACTION OF UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 17KT AT 06UTC) ACCENTUATES THIS SYSTEM
ASYMMETRY, PUSHING CONVECTION BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
ASCAT PASSES AT 0645 AND 0730Z CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF 35KT WINDS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. FILIPO REMAINS A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM WITH 35KT WINDS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND NOT VERY
DIVERGENT. THE FILIPO SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, THEN ACCELERATING ALONG THE EASTERN
EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IT SHOULD THUS EVACUATE DEFINITIVELY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NOW BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FILIPO SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN A CONTEXT OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE BANGS OF A SUB-TROPICAL TROUGH.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSIFICATION DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOWER LAYERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS
WELL AS ABOUT THE EFFECT OF WIND SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. WIND SHEAR IS
SET TO INCREASE PROGRESSIVELY, BUT FILIPO'S RAPID DISPLACEMENT MEANS
IT COULD BE OVERTAKEN BY WIND SHEAR. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REACH THE
STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY
IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY 12UTC, CLOSE TO 60-65KT, BUT CURRENT
FORECASTS POINT TO THE START OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE AT
THE SAME TIME (THE SCENARIO OF MAXIMUM INTENSITY AT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE ON THURSDAY AT 12UTC IS NO LONGER FORECAST, BUT IS NOT
COMPLETELY RULED OUT). INDEED, AS FILIPO MOVES INTO COLDER WATERS AND
SHEAR CONDITIONS, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FROM THURSDAY EVENING.

EXPECTED IMPACT ON LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

NORTHEAST SOUTH AFRICA (NORTH KWAZULU-NATAL) :
- RAINS: 50-100MM STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING THEN IMPROVING NEXT
NIGHT.=