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AXAU01 APRF 121839 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1839 UTC 12/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 13.9S Longitude: 108.8E Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km) Movement Towards: east (099 deg) Speed of Movement: 13 knots (25 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 995 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 13/0000: 14.3S 110.2E: 055 (100): 040 (075): 994 +12: 13/0600: 14.8S 111.3E: 065 (120): 040 (075): 993 +18: 13/1200: 15.1S 112.3E: 070 (130): 040 (075): 993 +24: 13/1800: 15.4S 113.1E: 075 (140): 040 (075): 993 +36: 14/0600: 16.0S 114.4E: 095 (175): 040 (075): 993 +48: 14/1800: 16.7S 115.0E: 125 (230): 040 (075): 992 +60: 15/0600: 17.4S 114.8E: 155 (290): 045 (085): 990 +72: 15/1800: 17.7S 114.4E: 170 (315): 050 (095): 986 +96: 16/1800: 18.3S 113.3E: 225 (420): 060 (110): 977 +120: 17/1800: 19.1S 112.2E: 280 (515): 055 (100): 981 REMARKS: Tropical low 08U remains under the influence of strong deep layer easterly wind shear. There has been little change in the satellite presentation compared with 24 hours ago, with deep convection displaced to the west of the estimated low level centre and showing little curvature or rotation. Confidence in the centre position is low. Dvorak analysis: low confidence in shear pattern DT given low confidence in centre position. Weak 0.3 to 0.4 wrap curved band is likewise dubious. MET is 2.0 based on a 24 hour S trend with no PAT adjustment. Final T 2.0 with CI also 2.0, below the analysed intensity. Objective guidance: ADT 33kt, AiDT 32kt, DPRINT 29kt, DMINT 30kt, SATCON 44kt (1-min average). Intensity maintained at 40 knots based chiefly on persistence from the Tuesday morning ASCAT pass given the static nature of the cloud pattern. Gales remain confined to northern quadrants only, supported by partial scatterometry passes during the past 12 to 18 hours. 08U is currently tracking east with the low-level monsoon flow, with development constrained by strong easterly shear (analysed by CIMSS winds at approximately 30 knots). Environmental conditions are otherwise favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track, strong monsoon flow to the north, reasonable upper level divergence, and upper level winds supportive of poleward outflow as the system deepens. 08U is forecast to slowly become a deeper system during the week. Once this happens, the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south will increase and slow the system down. At the same time, an amplifying upper level trough to the west will steer the system slowly to the south. The resulting reduction in deep layer wind shear should allow the system to develop and become more symmetric late in the week. It is forecast to intensify into the weekend as it tracks south and then southwest under the influence of the ridge. The most likely track scenario is for 08U to remain off the coast as it curves towards the southwest over the weekend. There is, however, a large spread in the guidance. Another scenario is that the system remains a shallow low for longer and tracks further east before developing. If this happens, then 08U is likely to be closer to the coast as it turns towards the southwest. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/0130 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 am March 13 tropical low 13.9S 108.8E 75 +6hr 8 am March 13 tropical low 14.3S 110.2E 100 +12hr 2 pm March 13 tropical low 14.8S 111.3E 120 +18hr 8 pm March 13 tropical low 15.1S 112.3E 130 +24hr 2 am March 14 tropical low 15.4S 113.1E 140 +36hr 2 pm March 14 tropical low 16.0S 114.4E 175 +48hr 2 am March 15 tropical low 16.7S 115.0E 230 +60hr 2 pm March 15 1 17.4S 114.8E 290 +72hr 2 am March 16 2 17.7S 114.4E 315 -
WTXS32 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 109.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 109.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.8S 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.3S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.9S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.5S 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.4S 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.3S 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.0S 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 110.0E. 12MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- sOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MNIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.0S 109.4E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 565 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S WITH A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE WEST. A 121807Z AMSR2 COLOR-ENHANCED 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS VERY BROAD SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED LLCC TO THE EAST OF A PATCH OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. CIRRUS FILAMENTS EXPAND FROM THE CONVECTION CENTER PRIMARILY TOWARDS THE WEST, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX STRUGGLES TO OVERCOME THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG 30KT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ALSO RESULTING FROM VWS, WEAK WESTWARD OUTFLOW IS BLOWN OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS EXHIBITING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL TILT WITH HEIGHT. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE ELEMENTS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM ENHANCING VORTICITY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO STEADY IMPROVE THE VORTEX STRUCTURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMARILY DRIVING THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR REVEALING THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW. SATCON ASSESSES THE SYSTEM AS 44 KTS, HOWEVER IT IS SUSPECTED THAT THE WIND FIELD IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE SYSTEM, BASED ON ANALYSIS OF EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA WHICH SHOWED WINDS AT OR BELOW 25 KTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 121630Z CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 121730Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN NER TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE SLOWING TRACK SPEED AND CURVING TO THE SOUTH UNTIL TAU 72. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXPANDING OVER THE AUSTRALIAN CONTINENT IS ANTICIPATED TO REDIRECT THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 72, DUE TO MODERATE DISAGREEMENT IN HOW STRONGLY THE RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM AND WHETHER IT WILL HAVE A NORTH-SOUTH ALIGNMENT FORCING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH OR WILL HAVE AN EAST-WEST ALIGNMENT ALLOWING THE STORM TO TRACK FARTHER EAST AND IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. SHEAR BEGINS TO DROP OFF WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE RAPID PACE OF INTENSIFICATION, TO A PEAK OF 80KTS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, HOWEVER THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS STILL LARGE AT 450NM BY TAU 120. THE TRACK DIRECTION HAS ALSO OVERALL TAKEN A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT IN THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE STR OVER AUSTRALIA, DESPITE GFS BOUNDING THE SPREAD TO THE EAST AND GALWEM BOUNDING THE TRACK TO THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK GENERALLY CONFORMS TO THE ECMWF TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN, FASTER THAN THE GFS BUT SLOWER THAN THE UKMET AND GALWEM. DUE THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 84, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC SPIKING AT TAU 60 AND INTENSIFYING TO 110KTS BY TAU 96 BEFORE DROPPING OFF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE HAFS-A GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PEAK INTENSITY ABOVE 110 KNOTS, AND THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES SHOW A LOW (30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE BASIS THAT TRACK DEVIATIONS CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT RESULTS IN INTENSITY AND THE RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-13 18:00:02 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
AXAU01 APRF 130107 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0107 UTC 13/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 14.6S Longitude: 110.4E Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km) Movement Towards: east southeast (108 deg) Speed of Movement: 16 knots (30 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 997 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 170 nm (315 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 13/0600: 15.1S 111.6E: 045 (085): 035 (065): 996 +12: 13/1200: 15.3S 112.7E: 055 (105): 035 (065): 996 +18: 13/1800: 15.4S 113.6E: 065 (120): 035 (065): 995 +24: 14/0000: 15.5S 114.5E: 075 (140): 035 (065): 996 +36: 14/1200: 16.1S 116.0E: 095 (170): 035 (065): 995 +48: 15/0000: 16.8S 116.5E: 120 (225): 040 (075): 993 +60: 15/1200: 17.2S 116.1E: 145 (270): 045 (085): 989 +72: 16/0000: 17.5S 115.5E: 165 (305): 055 (100): 983 +96: 17/0000: 17.9S 114.6E: 205 (375): 060 (110): 979 +120: 18/0000: 19.0S 113.5E: 270 (500): 060 (110): 977 REMARKS: Tropical low 08U remains under the influence of strong deep layer easterly wind shear. Recent visible imagery indicates a twin low level centre with deep convection displaced more than 100 n mi to the west. This represents a slight weakening trend over the past 24 hours. Confidence in the centre position is low. Dvorak analysis: DT 1.5 +- 0.5 from shear pattern. MET of 1.0 based on a W- trend, no PAT adjustment. FT of 1.5 due to constraints and CI of 2.0. Objective guidance: ADT 33kt, AiDT 33kt, DPRINT 28kt, DMINT 26kt, SATCON 44kt (1-min average). Intensity lowered to 35 knots based chiefly on persistence from the Tuesday morning ASCAT, AMSR2 scat winds and the slight weakening in the cloud pattern. Gales remain confined to northern quadrants only, supported by partial scatterometry passes during the past 12 to 18 hours. 08U is currently tracking east with the low-level monsoon flow, with development constrained by strong easterly shear (analysed by CIMSS winds at approximately 30 knots). Environmental conditions are otherwise favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track, strong monsoon flow to the north, reasonable upper level divergence, and upper level winds supportive of poleward outflow as the system deepens. 08U is forecast to slowly become a deeper system during the week. Once this happens, the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south will increase and slow the system down. At the same time, an amplifying upper level trough to the west will steer the system slowly to the south. The resulting reduction in deep layer wind shear should allow the system to develop and become more symmetric later in the week. It is forecast to intensify into the weekend as it tracks south and then southwest under the influence of the ridge. The most likely track scenario is for 08U to remain off the coast as it curves towards the southwest over the weekend. There is, however, a large spread in the guidance. Another scenario is that the system remains a shallow low for longer and tracks further east before developing. If this happens, then 08U is likely to be further east when it turns to the southwest increasing the chance of reaching the west Pilbara coast. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/0730 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 am March 13 tropical low 14.6S 110.4E 55 +6hr 2 pm March 13 tropical low 15.1S 111.6E 85 +12hr 8 pm March 13 tropical low 15.3S 112.7E 105 +18hr 2 am March 14 tropical low 15.4S 113.6E 120 +24hr 8 am March 14 tropical low 15.5S 114.5E 140 +36hr 8 pm March 14 tropical low 16.1S 116.0E 170 +48hr 8 am March 15 1 16.8S 116.5E 225 +60hr 8 pm March 15 1 17.2S 116.1E 270 +72hr 8 am March 16 2 17.5S 115.5E 305 -
WTXS32 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 110.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 110.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.2S 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.6S 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.2S 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.8S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.9S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.6S 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.3S 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 110.8E. 13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.5S 110.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 518 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A HIGHLY IRREGULAR TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH TWO DISTINCT LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC), ONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND TRAVELLING EASTWARD FASTER THAN THE SECOND CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME STATIONARY. THE TWO CENTERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS UNDERGOING A FUJIWHARA INTERACTION. STRONG 30KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE EAST IS BLOWING THE DEEP LAYER CONVECTION COMPLETELY OFF OF THE VORTICES LEAVING BOTH CIRCULATIONS FULLY EXPOSED, DESPITE A FAVORABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE GIVEN THAT THE POSITION WAS PLACED IN THE CENTROID BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS DEFINED ABOVE. THE INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AT A GENEROUS 35KTS, BASED ON AN 121800Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED PRODUCT SHOWING A BAND OF ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE MOST PART MUCH LOWER THAN THE AMSR2 MEASUREMENT. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OTHER (AMSR2 WINDSPEED PRODUCT). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS APRF: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 120030Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN NER TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER THE CONTINENT OF AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND REDIRECT THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 72 AND CONTINUING ON THAT TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU 72, DUE TO MODERATE DISAGREEMENT IN HOW STRONGLY THE STR WILL INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM AND WHETHER IT WILL HAVE A NORTH-SOUTH ALIGNMENT FORCING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH OR WILL HAVE AN EAST-WEST ALIGNMENT ALLOWING THE STORM TO TRACK FARTHER EAST AND APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE LACK OF AN ORGANIZED, SINGULAR VORTEX, COMBINED WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR, WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT SHEAR WILL DECREASE AFTER TAU 36, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE VORTEX TO FINALLY CONSOLIDATE AND THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO A FORECASTED PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE HAS OPENED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS TO A CROSS-TRACK ERROR OF 550NM BY TAU 120, BANDED BY GALWEM TO THE WEST AND GFS TO THE EAST. GFS ANTICIPATES THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE NEARLY DUE EAST BEFORE SHARPLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT TAU 72. ECMWF AND UKMET BOTH INITIALLY TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, AND SLOWLY CURVE TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH CONFORMS CLOSELY TO THE ECMWF AND THE CONSENSUS MEAN. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE GRADUAL INCREASE TO 80KTS BY TAU 120, HOWEVER BOTH COAMPS-TC (GFS-BASED) AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM-BASED) HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PEAKS UP TO 100KTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT SHOWS INCREASING CHANCES OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 96 (NOW UP TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY), WHILE THE SAME PRODUCT BASED ON GEFS SHOWS A LOW, BUT INCREASING CHANCE AS WELL. AS A RESULT, THE CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF RI AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN
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AXAU01 APRF 130717 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0717 UTC 13/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 15.2S Longitude: 111.2E Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km) Movement Towards: east southeast (119 deg) Speed of Movement: 13 knots (25 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 994 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 13/1200: 15.5S 112.4E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 994 +12: 13/1800: 15.7S 113.3E: 065 (120): 035 (065): 994 +18: 14/0000: 15.8S 114.2E: 075 (140): 035 (065): 994 +24: 14/0600: 16.1S 114.8E: 085 (160): 035 (065): 994 +36: 14/1800: 16.6S 115.7E: 110 (205): 035 (065): 993 +48: 15/0600: 17.3S 115.8E: 135 (255): 035 (065): 993 +60: 15/1800: 17.5S 115.3E: 150 (275): 035 (065): 993 +72: 16/0600: 17.9S 114.8E: 170 (315): 040 (075): 991 +96: 17/0600: 18.5S 114.1E: 220 (405): 050 (095): 983 +120: 18/0600: 20.2S 113.4E: 285 (530): 060 (110): 975 REMARKS: Tropical low 08U remains under the influence of strong deep layer easterly wind shear. Recent visible imagery indicates a twin low level centre with deep convection displaced more than 100 n mi to the west, but with the second centre now dissipating. This represents a slight weakening trend over the past 24 hours. Confidence in the centre position is low. Dvorak analysis: No reliable cloud pattern. MET of 1.0 based on a W- trend, no PAT adjustment. FT of 1.0, CI of 2.0. Objective guidance: ADT 28kt, AiDT 31kt, DPRINT 27kt, DMINT 26kt (old), SATCON 44kt (old) (1-min average). Recent scatterometry indicates about 30 knots to the north, but re-strengthening to gales is the short term in the strong monsoonal flow to the north is likely. Gales analysed and forecast to persist in the northern quadrants. 08U is currently tracking east with the low-level monsoon flow, with development constrained by strong easterly shear (analysed by CIMSS winds at approximately 30 knots). Environmental conditions are otherwise somewhat favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track and strong monsoon flow to the north. Shear is expected to ease and become more northerly by the weekend, and upper level winds are forecast to become supportive of poleward outflow. 08U is forecast to slowly become a deeper system during the week. Once this happens, the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south will increase and slow the system down. At the same time, an amplifying upper level trough to the west will steer the system slowly to the south. The resulting reduction in deep layer wind shear should allow the system to develop and become more symmetric later in the week. It is forecast to intensify over the weekend and early next week as it tracks south and then southwest under the influence of the ridge. The most likely track scenario is for 08U to remain off the coast as it curves towards the southwest over the weekend. There is, however, a large spread in the guidance. There is the possibility of it moving further east before turning to the south then southwest, which would see it move closer to or across the west Pilbara coast. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1330 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 pm March 13 tropical low 15.2S 111.2E 75 +6hr 8 pm March 13 tropical low 15.5S 112.4E 100 +12hr 2 am March 14 tropical low 15.7S 113.3E 120 +18hr 8 am March 14 tropical low 15.8S 114.2E 140 +24hr 2 pm March 14 tropical low 16.1S 114.8E 160 +36hr 2 am March 15 tropical low 16.6S 115.7E 205 +48hr 2 pm March 15 tropical low 17.3S 115.8E 255 +60hr 2 am March 16 tropical low 17.5S 115.3E 275 +72hr 2 pm March 16 1 17.9S 114.8E 315 -
WTXS32 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 110.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 110.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.4S 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.8S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.4S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.0S 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.7S 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.5S 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 19.6S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 111.2E. 13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 482 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 14.9S 110.8E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 482 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S AS HAVING TWO MESOVORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A CENTROID AS SHOWN IN A 122245Z SSMIS 91 GHZ SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 130223Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS 30 KTS, REASONABLY 35KTS INCORPORATING A GENERAL LOW BIAS OF THE COLLECTING SENSOR, ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THE MESOVORTICES IN THEIR NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND 15-20 KTS WINDS IN THEIR SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 18S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 130600Z HIMAWARI-9 SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETRY DATA. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETRY DATA CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 35 KTS AT 130700Z CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 130800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NER TO THE NORTH. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 WHERE IT WILL COMMENCE A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO A STR ANCHORED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 35 KTS THROUGH TAU 12 AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 40 KTS BY TAU 24 IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KTS BY TAU 36, WHICH WILL START AN EVIDENT INTENSIFYING TREND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF NEAR 80 KTS BY TAU 120. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 250 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLYING MODEL OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EASTWARD BEFORE MAKING THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSER TO ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. CONSIDERING THE LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER ALIGNMENT SUGGESTING A GRADUAL INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 80KTS WITH AN INTENSITY SPREAD RANGING BETWEEN 65 TO 85 KTS AT TAU 120. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
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AXAU01 APRF 131303 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1302 UTC 13/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 15.4S Longitude: 112.0E Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km) Movement Towards: east southeast (117 deg) Speed of Movement: 9 knots (16 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 994 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 13/1800: 15.5S 112.7E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 994 +12: 14/0000: 15.6S 113.6E: 065 (120): 035 (065): 994 +18: 14/0600: 15.9S 114.5E: 075 (145): 035 (065): 994 +24: 14/1200: 16.2S 115.3E: 090 (165): 035 (065): 994 +36: 15/0000: 16.8S 116.1E: 115 (215): 035 (065): 993 +48: 15/1200: 17.4S 116.0E: 130 (245): 035 (065): 993 +60: 16/0000: 17.6S 115.3E: 150 (280): 040 (075): 992 +72: 16/1200: 17.9S 114.7E: 165 (305): 040 (075): 990 +96: 17/1200: 18.6S 114.0E: 215 (395): 055 (100): 980 +120: 18/1200: 20.1S 113.0E: 285 (530): 060 (110): 978 REMARKS: Tropical low 08U remains under the influence of strong deep layer easterly wind shear. Confidence in the centre position is fair based on persistence and animated EIR imagery. Dvorak analysis: centre remains exposed. Unable to apply any particular pattern confidently. MET of 1.5 based on a W- trend, PAT adjusted 1.0. FT of 1.0, CI held at 1.5. Objective guidance: ADT 32kt, AiDT 32kt, DPRINT 28kt, DMINT 27kt (old), SATCON 36kt (old) (1-min average). Recent scatterometry indicates about 30 knots to the north, but re-strengthening to gales is the short term in the strong monsoonal flow to the north is likely. Gales analysed and forecast to persist in the northern quadrants. 08U is currently tracking east with the low-level monsoon flow, with development constrained by strong easterly shear (analysed by CIMSS winds at approximately 30 knots). Environmental conditions are otherwise somewhat favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track and strong monsoon flow to the north. Shear is expected to ease and become more northerly by the weekend, and upper level winds are forecast to become supportive of poleward outflow. 08U is forecast to slowly become a deeper system during the week. Once this happens, the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south will increase and slow the system down. At the same time, an amplifying upper level trough to the west will steer the system slowly to the south. The resulting reduction in deep layer wind shear should allow the system to develop and become more symmetric later in the week. It is forecast to intensify over the weekend and early next week as it tracks south and then southwest under the influence of the ridge. The most likely track scenario is for 08U to remain off the coast as it curves towards the southwest over the weekend. There is, however, a large spread in the guidance. There is the possibility of it moving further east before turning to the south then southwest, which would see it move closer to or across the west Pilbara coast. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1930 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 8 pm March 13 tropical low 15.4S 112.0E 75 +6hr 2 am March 14 tropical low 15.5S 112.7E 100 +12hr 8 am March 14 tropical low 15.6S 113.6E 120 +18hr 2 pm March 14 tropical low 15.9S 114.5E 145 +24hr 8 pm March 14 tropical low 16.2S 115.3E 165 +36hr 8 am March 15 tropical low 16.8S 116.1E 215 +48hr 8 pm March 15 tropical low 17.4S 116.0E 245 +60hr 8 am March 16 1 17.6S 115.3E 280 +72hr 8 pm March 16 1 17.9S 114.7E 305 -
WDXS32 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.3S 111.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 445 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO HIGH EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, A WESTWARD TILTING VORTEX AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO TAP INTO GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 18S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 131200Z HIMAWARI-9 EIR IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 131200Z CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 131200Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK TO MODERATE POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NER TO THE NORTH. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS TRACK UNTIL TAU 36, WHERE IT IS ANTICIPATED TO INITIATE A POLEWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO HAVE COMPLETED THE POLEWARD TURN NEAR TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, TC 18S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 35 KTS THROUGH TAU 12 DUE TO THE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE AND MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 12, TC 18S IS FORECAST TO THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES (10-15 KTS) STARING AT TAU 36 AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING VERY WARM. MODEL DISCUSSION: GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 325 NM AT TAU 72. GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLYING MODEL, TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER EAST BEFORE STARTING THE POLEWARD TURN PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY DIVIDED REGARDING THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE POLEWARD TURN, AND AS SUCH, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER ALIGNMENT - RELATIVE TO TRACK AGREEMENT - WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC. BY TAU 48, ALL JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT TC 18S WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 120. THERE IS A 20 KT SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT PERSISTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST INTERVAL, LENDING OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-15 05:00:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因： -
AXAU01 APRF 131907 IDW27600 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1907 UTC 13/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 08U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 15.4S Longitude: 113.1E Location Accuracy: within 40nm (75 km) Movement Towards: east (096 deg) Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h) Central Pressure: 996 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 130 nm (240 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 14/0000: 15.6S 114.0E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 994 +12: 14/0600: 15.8S 114.9E: 070 (125): 035 (065): 994 +18: 14/1200: 16.1S 115.7E: 080 (145): 035 (065): 994 +24: 14/1800: 16.4S 116.2E: 090 (170): 035 (065): 993 +36: 15/0600: 17.1S 116.5E: 115 (210): 035 (065): 993 +48: 15/1800: 17.4S 116.0E: 130 (240): 035 (065): 992 +60: 16/0600: 17.7S 115.4E: 150 (280): 040 (075): 990 +72: 16/1800: 17.8S 114.8E: 165 (310): 045 (085): 988 +96: 17/1800: 18.8S 114.1E: 220 (405): 060 (110): 978 +120: 18/1800: 20.5S 113.2E: 290 (540): 055 (100): 981 REMARKS: Tropical Low 08U remains under the influence of strong deep layer easterly wind shear. The low level circulation has been exposed for most of the past 24 to 36 hours, with multiple centres at times. Convection has been displaced to the west of the LLCC, waxing and waning with the diurnal cycle with no overall development occurring; if anything the system has weakened slightly compared to Tuesday night. Confidence in the centre position is low with persistence and animated EIR imagery the main guidance. Dvorak analysis: Shear pattern gives DT 1.5 with the estimated centre displaced 0.9 degrees from the deep convection. MET is 2.0 based on a 24 hour S trend, and PT is adjusted down to 1.5. FT is 1.5 based on PAT, with CI also 1.5. Objective guidance: ADT 32kt, AiDT 32kt, DPRINT 25kt, and SATCON 43kt (all 1-min average). Earlier (Wednesday morning) scatterometry indicated a broad swathe of max 30 knot winds in the monsoon dominated flow to the north, but these winds are expected to fluctuate around 30 to 35 knots diurnally so intensity has been maintained at 35 knots with gales in the northern quadrants only. 08U is currently tracking east with the low-level monsoon flow, with development constrained by strong easterly shear (analysed by CIMSS winds at approximately 30 knots). Environmental conditions are otherwise somewhat favourable with SSTs 28-29C along track and strong monsoon flow to the north. Shear is expected to ease and become more northerly by the weekend, and upper level winds are forecast to become supportive of poleward outflow. From Friday, the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south will begin to slow the system down. At the same time, an amplifying upper level trough to the west will begin to steer the system slowly to the south. The resulting reduction in deep layer wind shear should allow the system to begin to develop, and tropical cyclone strength is currently forecast from Saturday. Further intensification is possible as 08U tracks south and then southwest under the influence of the ridge over the weekend and early next week. The most likely track scenario is for 08U to remain off the Western Australian coast as it curves towards the southwest over the weekend and into next week. There is, however, a large spread in the guidance due to different relative strengths of modelled steering influences, with some favouring a track further east before turning, and/or more southerly movement. An approach close to or across the western Pilbara coast early next week therefore remains possible. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/0130 UTC.
Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 2 am March 14 tropical low 15.4S 113.1E 75 +6hr 8 am March 14 tropical low 15.6S 114.0E 100 +12hr 2 pm March 14 tropical low 15.8S 114.9E 125 +18hr 8 pm March 14 tropical low 16.1S 115.7E 145 +24hr 2 am March 15 tropical low 16.4S 116.2E 170 +36hr 2 pm March 15 tropical low 17.1S 116.5E 210 +48hr 2 am March 16 tropical low 17.4S 116.0E 240 +60hr 2 pm March 16 1 17.7S 115.4E 280 +72hr 2 am March 17 1 17.8S 114.8E 310 -
WTXS32 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 112.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 112.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.6S 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.2S 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.8S 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.4S 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.2S 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.0S 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.8S 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 112.5E. 13MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 434 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).// NNNN
WDXS32 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 15.3S 112.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 434 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 07 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWEST OF AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THERE IS MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND NO ORGANIZED FEEDER BANDS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SST AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT GREATLY OFFSET BY STRONG (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 131451Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS APRF: T1.5 - 25 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 131730Z CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 131730Z CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 131730Z CIMSS DPRINT: 25 KTS AT 13800Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 25-30 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: LOW INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18S WILL CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE NER. AFTER TAU 36, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, ANCHORED OVER AUSTRALIA, WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, AS THE STORM MOTION BECOME MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW, VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO IMPROVE, PROMOTE A STEADY INTENSIFICATION, AND BY TAU 120 WILL REACH 80KTS AS IT COMES TO WITHIN 140NM OF LEARMONTH. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT UNEVENLY SPREADING OUT TO 195NM AT TAU 72 AND 287NM AT TAU 120. THIS PLUS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STORM POSITIONING, LEND OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN