最新回复 (38)
-
ABIO10 PGTW 131030 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/131030Z-131800ZMAR2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130752ZMAR2024// REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130751ZMAR2024// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 13MAR24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 110.8E, APPROXIMATELY 482 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 130900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AT 13MAR24 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (FILIPO) WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0S 33.1E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS31 PGTW 130900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5S 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 108 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 130730Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE ASSESSED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KT) VWS, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING ALONG THE TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1)// NNNN
-
ABPW10 PGTW 141800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141800Z-150600ZMAR2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141751ZMAR2024// AMPN/REF A IS THE ABIO10 BULLETIN.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 129.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 135.6E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GROVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 141548Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC WITH THE FLARING CONVECTION DISPLAYED TO THE NORTH DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94S IS IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29- 30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND BEGIN INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: THE AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED ON THE ABIO BULLETIN HAS CROSSED INTO THE ABPW BULLETIN REGION AND BEEN UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.// NNNN
-
AXAU01 ADRM 150145 IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0145 UTC 15/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 09U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 12.4S Longitude: 136.4E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: east (099 deg) Speed of Movement: 13 knots (24 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 995 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 15/0600: 13.1S 137.0E: 035 (065): 040 (075): 994 +12: 15/1200: 13.5S 137.3E: 050 (090): 040 (075): 994 +18: 15/1800: 13.8S 137.5E: 055 (100): 040 (075): 992 +24: 16/0000: 14.1S 137.7E: 060 (110): 040 (075): 990 +36: 16/1200: 14.6S 137.5E: 060 (115): 045 (085): 987 +48: 17/0000: 15.0S 137.3E: 080 (145): 055 (100): 980 +60: 17/1200: 15.4S 137.2E: 095 (180): 060 (110): 977 +72: 18/0000: 15.7S 137.2E: 120 (220): 060 (110): 976 +96: 19/0000: 16.2S 135.7E: 155 (290): 030 (055): 997 +120: 20/0000: 16.3S 132.6E: 195 (365): 020 (035): 1002 REMARKS: Tropical Low 09U will move into the Gulf of Carpentaria and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone. Recent motion has been steadily to the east. Position is based on Gove radar and surface observations, with good confidence. Intensity of 40 knots is based on surface observations at Ngayawili (Elcho Island) and a HY-2B pass at 2053 UTC. No Dvorak applied due to the system being over land. Objective aids are not yet available. Monsoon gales currently to the north of the system are expected to persist as it moves east southeast into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Moderate to high easterly shear may inhibit further development initially, however conditions should improve as the system moves further south. On Sunday a poleward outflow channel may aid further development, and the system is forecast to reach category 2 intensity prior to a coastal crossing in the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria. A severe (category 3) impact cannot be ruled out. The system is currently moving east under the influence of a monsoon surge. A complex steering pattern develops over the weekend, with the monsoon flow initially balance by a mid-level ridge to the south. This ridge is eroded by a mid-level trough which allows the system to drift slowly south. By Tuesday a new mid-level ridge develops to the south, and will steer the system towards the west across inland parts of the Northern Territory. After crossing the coast, it will weaken below tropical cyclone intensity. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/0730 UTC.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 am March 15 tropical low 12.4S 136.4E 35 +6hr 4 pm March 15 tropical low 13.1S 137.0E 65 +12hr 10 pm March 15 tropical low 13.5S 137.3E 90 +18hr 4 am March 16 tropical low 13.8S 137.5E 100 +24hr 10 am March 16 1 14.1S 137.7E 110 +36hr 10 pm March 16 1 14.6S 137.5E 115 +48hr 10 am March 17 2 15.0S 137.3E 145 +60hr 10 pm March 17 2 15.4S 137.2E 180 +72hr 10 am March 18 2 15.7S 137.2E 220 -
WTPS21 PGTW 150130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 136.1E TO 14.5S 138.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 150100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 136.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 136.2E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM SOUTHWEST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC WITH CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION VALID AT 150038Z REPORTS WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29- 30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND BEGIN INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 160130Z.// NNNN
ABPW10 PGTW 150130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/150130Z-150600ZMAR2024// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150121ZMAR2024// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 136.2E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM SOUTHWEST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC WITH CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CIRCULATION. A RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION VALID AT 150038Z REPORTS WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 94S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29- 30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND BEGIN INTENSIFYING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.// NNNN
-
AXAU01 ADRM 150701 IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0701 UTC 15/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 09U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 13.0S Longitude: 136.9E Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km) Movement Towards: southeast (141 deg) Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 995 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 15/1200: 13.4S 137.3E: 025 (050): 040 (075): 990 +12: 15/1800: 13.7S 137.4E: 040 (080): 040 (075): 990 +18: 16/0000: 14.0S 137.5E: 050 (090): 040 (075): 989 +24: 16/0600: 14.3S 137.4E: 055 (100): 040 (075): 989 +36: 16/1800: 14.7S 137.2E: 060 (115): 050 (095): 983 +48: 17/0600: 15.0S 137.0E: 075 (140): 055 (100): 979 +60: 17/1800: 15.4S 136.9E: 095 (175): 060 (110): 976 +72: 18/0600: 15.6S 136.7E: 120 (220): 060 (110): 975 +96: 19/0600: 15.8S 135.3E: 155 (290): 030 (055): 995 +120: 20/0600: 15.7S 132.6E: 185 (345): 020 (035): 1001 REMARKS: Tropical Low 09U has moved into the Gulf of Carpentaria and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone. Recent motion has been towards the southeast. Position is based on Gove radar, visible satellite imagery and surface observations, with good confidence. Intensity of 40 knots is based on earlier surface observations at Ngayawili (Elcho Island) and ASCAT passes from 0046 UTC and 2359 UTC UTC. Dvorak analysis: DT 2.5 based on shear pattern. MET/PAT 2.5 based on a D+ trend, with FT/CI=2.5. Objective aids are not yet available. Monsoon gales currently to the north of the system are expected to persist as it moves southeast in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Moderate to high easterly shear may inhibit further development initially, however conditions should improve as the system moves further south. On Sunday a poleward outflow channel may aid further development, and the system is forecast to reach category 2 intensity prior to a coastal crossing in the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria, most likely during Monday. A severe (category 3) impact cannot be ruled out. The system is currently moving southeast under the influence of a monsoon surge. A complex steering pattern develops over the weekend, with the monsoon flow initially balance by a mid-level ridge to the south. This ridge is eroded by a mid-level trough which allows the system to drift slowly south. By Tuesday a new mid-level ridge develops to the south, and will steer the system towards the west across inland parts of the Northern Territory. After crossing the coast, it will weaken below tropical cyclone intensity. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1330 UTC.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 pm March 15 tropical low 13.0S 136.9E 20 +6hr 10 pm March 15 tropical low 13.4S 137.3E 50 +12hr 4 am March 16 tropical low 13.7S 137.4E 80 +18hr 10 am March 16 1 14.0S 137.5E 90 +24hr 4 pm March 16 1 14.3S 137.4E 100 +36hr 4 am March 17 2 14.7S 137.2E 115 +48hr 4 pm March 17 2 15.0S 137.0E 140 +60hr 4 am March 18 2 15.4S 136.9E 175 +72hr 4 pm March 18 2 15.6S 136.7E 220 -
AXAU01 ADRM 151318 IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1318 UTC 15/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 09U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 13.5S Longitude: 137.2E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: south southeast (150 deg) Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 993 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 15/1800: 13.9S 137.5E: 030 (060): 040 (075): 993 +12: 16/0000: 14.1S 137.6E: 045 (080): 040 (075): 993 +18: 16/0600: 14.4S 137.6E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 989 +24: 16/1200: 14.6S 137.6E: 055 (105): 045 (085): 989 +36: 17/0000: 15.0S 137.4E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 982 +48: 17/1200: 15.3S 137.1E: 080 (145): 060 (110): 977 +60: 18/0000: 15.6S 136.9E: 105 (190): 060 (110): 976 +72: 18/1200: 15.9S 136.6E: 120 (225): 055 (100): 980 +96: 19/1200: 15.9S 134.9E: 150 (280): 025 (045): 998 +120: 20/1200: 15.6S 132.1E: 195 (355): 020 (035): 1002 REMARKS: Tropical Low 09U has moved over open water and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. Recent motion has been towards the southeast. Position is based on predominantly on Gove radar, surface observations and several recent microwave passes, with good confidence. Intensity remains at 40 knots based upon earlier ASCAT and observations. During the afternoon an exposed low-level centre was evident on satellite imagery with deeper convection well displaced to the west with a subsequent fall in DT numbers. Over the last few hours deep convection has redeveloped closer to the low level centre and the DT number has begun to increase again. Dvorak analysis: DT 2.0 using a curved band while a shear pattern provides a higher number. MET/PAT 1.5/2.0 based on a S trend, with FT/CI=2.0. Objective aids are not yet available. Gales are estimated in northern quadrants based upon early ASCAT and observations. The low has moved over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria (SST=30-31C) and is in a very moist environment, however In the short term development is likely to be hindered by continued high easterly wind shear. Conditions should improve as the system moves further south and 09U is forecast to reach tropical cyclone strength during Saturday. The passage of an upper trough during Saturday and Sunday to the south of 09U is expected to improve the poleward outflow which may aid further development. The system is forecast to reach category 2 intensity on Sunday although the slow movement of the system prior to landfall allows time for potential intensification to category 3 intensity closer to landfall. Once over land 09U is expected to weaken quickly. The system is currently moving steadily southeast under the influence of a monsoon surge. This movement is forecast to slow within 12 hours as a complex steering pattern develops, with the monsoon flow initially balanced by a mid-level ridge to the south. This ridge is eroded by a mid-level trough which allows the system to drift slowly southwest to eventually make landfall on the southwest Gulf on Monday. By Tuesday a new mid-level ridge develops to the south and this will steer the system towards the west across inland parts of the Northern Territory. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1930 UTC.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 10 pm March 15 tropical low 13.5S 137.2E 30 +6hr 4 am March 16 tropical low 13.9S 137.5E 60 +12hr 10 am March 16 tropical low 14.1S 137.6E 80 +18hr 4 pm March 16 1 14.4S 137.6E 90 +24hr 10 pm March 16 1 14.6S 137.6E 105 +36hr 10 am March 17 2 15.0S 137.4E 120 +48hr 10 pm March 17 2 15.3S 137.1E 145 +60hr 10 am March 18 2 15.6S 136.9E 190 +72hr 10 pm March 18 2 15.9S 136.6E 225 -
-
AXAU01 ADRM 151935 IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1935 UTC 15/03/2024 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 09U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 13.8S Longitude: 137.5E Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km) Movement Towards: southeast (136 deg) Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h) Central Pressure: 993 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km) Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 16/0000: 14.2S 137.7E: 040 (070): 040 (075): 993 +12: 16/0600: 14.5S 137.7E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 990 +18: 16/1200: 14.6S 137.6E: 055 (100): 045 (085): 989 +24: 16/1800: 14.9S 137.4E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 986 +36: 17/0600: 15.3S 137.2E: 070 (130): 055 (100): 983 +48: 17/1800: 15.6S 137.1E: 095 (170): 060 (110): 978 +60: 18/0600: 15.8S 137.1E: 115 (215): 060 (110): 978 +72: 18/1800: 16.1S 136.7E: 135 (250): 045 (085): 990 +96: 19/1800: 16.3S 134.9E: 160 (295): 025 (045): 1001 +120: 20/1800: 16.1S 132.2E: 200 (370): 020 (035): 1004 REMARKS: Tropical Low 09U is showing signs of development via persistent deep convection near centre and improved upper ventilation. The low level centre is located just to east or just under the eastern edge of deepest convection. Centre location is based on nearby surface observations and radar data. Confidence is fair. Intensity is at 40 knots based upon earlier ASCAT and observations. Dvorak analysis: DT 2.5 using a curved band (shear pattern would give a higher number). MET3.0 on 24hr D trend, adjusted to PT2.5. FT/CI=2.5. Objective aids are: ADT 39kt, AiDT 35kt, DPRINT 33kt, MW Sounders 55kt, SATCON 52 kt (1-min average). Gales are estimated in northern quadrants based upon early ASCAT and observations. Recent motion has been slowly towards the southeast over warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria (SST=30-31C). Over the next 24 hours, the steering influence will shift from being driven by the monsoon surge to a complex combination of the mid-level trough and ridge the south. The overall effect would be a slow drift in a general south to southwest direction till it makes landfall on the southwest Gulf on Monday. A new mid-level ridge develops to the south on Tuesday, which will steer the system towards the west across inland parts of the Northern Territory. 08U is developing against a moderate easterly wind shear (CIMSS~17kt) supported by strong low level moist monsoonal flow. The passage of an upper trough later today is expected to improve the poleward outflow which would aid further development. The system is forecast to reach cyclone intensity in next 6 hours and likely to become a category 2 intensity later tonight. Given that it would be moving slowly prior to landfall, there is potential intensification for 09U to reach category 3 intensity before landfall. Once over land, 09U is expected to weaken quickly. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0130 UTC.
Time (ACST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr 4 am March 16 tropical low 13.8S 137.5E 45 +6hr 10 am March 16 1 14.2S 137.7E 70 +12hr 4 pm March 16 1 14.5S 137.7E 90 +18hr 10 pm March 16 1 14.6S 137.6E 100 +24hr 4 am March 17 2 14.9S 137.4E 110 +36hr 4 pm March 17 2 15.3S 137.2E 130 +48hr 4 am March 18 2 15.6S 137.1E 170 +60hr 4 pm March 18 2 15.8S 137.1E 215 +72hr 4 am March 19 1 16.1S 136.7E 250 -
WTPS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 137.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 137.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.1S 137.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.7S 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 15.3S 137.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.6S 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.1S 136.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.6S 134.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 16.8S 131.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 137.7E. 15MAR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. // NNNN
WDPS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 13.6S 137.6E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 397 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 19P (NINETEEN) HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AFTER MOVING OVER WATER AND IS BEGINNING TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED IN THE EIR, WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151814Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE INITIAL PHASE OF MICROWAVE EYE DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, PARTICULARLY ON THE WEST SIDE. HOWEVER, COMPARISON WITH THE 36GHZ IMAGE REFLECTS A FAIR AMOUNT OF VORTEX TILT TOWARDS THE WEST WITH HEIGHT DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH MID-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF RADAR DATA FROM THE GOVE, AUSTRALIA STATION. THE SYSTEM IS AT THE FAR RANGE OF THE RADAR AND THUS SEEING THE UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION, WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE MICROWAVE DEPICTION, BUT THE LLCC IS LIKELY DISPLACED FURTHER EAST, THUS THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE BULK OF THE AGENCY FIXES OF T2.5, COMBINED WITH THE ADT, AIDT, DPRINT AND DMINT ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS, HIGH OHC EXCEEDING 100 KJ PER CM3 AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW FROM THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO PUSH BACK AGAINST THE SHEAR, AS FILAMENTS OF CIRRUS ARE PUSHING EASTWARD, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MESOSCALE REDUCTION IN SHEAR VALUES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE RAW ADT VALUES HAVE SHOT UP TO 3.4 AS OF 1830Z, WHICH MUST BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THIS MAY BE THE FIRST INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) SCENARIO. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, GENERALLY TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS ADRM: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 52 KTS AT 151630Z CIMSS ADT: 38 KTS AT 151800Z CIMSS DPRINT: 35 KTS AT 151800Z CIMSS DMINT: 38 KTS AT 151503Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 30-31 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC NINETEEN IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STR SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY CURVE TO A SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH, OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW EVEN MORE, DOWN TO JUST TWO KNOTS OR SO, AFTER TAU 36 AS THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA IS EXPECTED AROUND TAU 60. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AS NOTED ABOVE, WE MAY BE SEEING IN FIRST HINTS OF A POSSIBLE RI SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF OHC TO DRAW FROM. IF THE DEEP CONVECTION CAN PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK AGAINST THE SHEAR AT THE MESOSCALE LEVEL, RI IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A FAST PACE OF INTENSIFICATION, BUT JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF RI FOR NOW. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS EXPECTED JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AT TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS IT TRANSITS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO, WITH ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AGREEING ON A GENTLY ARCING TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST WHICH TURNS WESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL. THE TRACK ENVELOPE IS MARKED BY NAVGEM TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE NORTH AND WEST RESPECTIVELY. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS ABOUT 110NM AT LANDFALL, OPENING UP TO ROUGHLY 150NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED, WITH BOTH VERSIONS OF THE COAMPS-TC MARKING THE LOW-END OF THE ENVELOPE, PEAKING THE SYSTEM AT JUST 55 KNOTS, WHILE THE GFS SHIPS AND HAFS-A PEAK THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO 85 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE RIPA, RI45 AND RI25 RI AIDS HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED ON THIS CYCLE, ALSO PEAKING AS HIGH AS 85 KNOTS. LASTLY, THE GFS, COAMPS-TC AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCTS ALL SHOW A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG INTENSIFICATION UP THROUGH TAU 48, THOUGH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) OF RI. THE JTWC FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE, BUT REMAINS BELOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE RI GUIDANCE, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN
最后于 2024-03-16 04:50:00 被ygsj24编辑 ，原因：